Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Slaughter Beach, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 4:44PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 6:09 AM EST (11:09 UTC) Moonrise 10:09AMMoonset 8:12PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 324 Am Est Wed Nov 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from noon est today through this evening...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W early this morning, then becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late this morning, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt early this afternoon, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then 3 to 5 ft early this morning. Showers with a slight chance of tstms early this morning, then showers likely late this morning.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 324 Am Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will move across the area early this morning while an area of low pressure moves northeastward offshore the mid atlantic coast. High pressure will build toward the area tonight, and control the weather Thursday and Friday. A cold front is forecast to move across the area on Saturday while an area of low pressure moves northeastward offshore the mid atlantic coast. High pressure builds across the area Monday, then offshore Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Slaughter Beach, DE
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 38.95, -75.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kphi 220953
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
453 am est Wed nov 22 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move across the area early this morning while
an area of low pressure moves northeastward offshore the mid
atlantic coast. High pressure will build toward the area
tonight, and control the weather Thursday and Friday. A cold
front is forecast to move across the area on Saturday while an
area of low pressure moves northeastward offshore the mid
atlantic coast. High pressure builds across the area Monday,
then offshore Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
500 am update: two main bands of precipitation are occurring at
this time. The first is along and just offshore the new jersey
coast, with quite a bit of training going on (fortunately
offshore). Given that this has set up mostly off the coast, the
heaviest precipitation should remain there with this main band.

Totals in southern delaware and eastern new jersey have
generally been a quarter to a half inch (locally higher), with
is generally about two-thirds of what the consensus hi-res
guidance was showing up to this point. Nevertheless, with more
upstream precipitation, thinking totals of a half to three-
quarters of an inch in these areas is plausible, and the updated
qpf is not much different than the previous forecast.

The second band of showers is over and near chesapeake bay, and
this appears to be strongly associated with right-rear quadrant
jet dynamics as the 250-mb jet streak lifts into the northeast
this morning. This area of precipitation has had much better
success extending northward toward the mason-dixon line. Forward
trajectories take this precipitation generally along and
southeast of i-95 this morning, which seems to be well sampled
by the latest hrrr. The 06z NAM nest continues to look very
unrealistic with the evolution of the precipitation, and the
model has performed pretty badly with the event overall. Did not
incorporate it into the updated pops wx grids.

Previous discussion...

rain event is underway across the area, with an area of showers
moving through DELMARVA northeastward through eastern new
jersey early this morning. A few lightning strikes have already
been observed within the stronger convective cores, so the
models appear to be simulating the influx of buoyant air
reasonably well. Where the models continue to struggle is with
the lighter precipitation that may or may not develop on the
northwest fringe of the more convective showers. The recent hrrr
simulations suggest very little precip may occur west of
wilmington and philadelphia with a band of light rain developing
somewhere northeast of philadelphia (possibly as far west as
the lehigh valley, possibly as far east as not in pennsylvania
at all). The NAM nest provides little usable guidance, as it has
basically no clue regarding the convection occurring right now
southwest of atlantic city.

With the rapid growth of the precipitation still ongoing given
the continuing improvement of the synoptic-scale dynamics with
the approaching trough to the west phasing with a northeastward-
moving perturbation to the south, still quite difficult to
determine just how far west the precipitation will make it.

However, based on current trends (both radar and model), general
thinking is that i- 295 is going to be a reasonable
approximation to the sharp cutoff in QPF (maybe a little to the
east of there even). With the precipitation rates seen so far,
localized 1"+ totals are plausible southeast of a dover to
asbury park line. In fact, hourly accumulations in
central southern delaware are already nearing this threshold. To
the northwest, mere hundredths of an inch may occur in the
greater i-95 corridor (though confidence remains pretty low,
especially northeast of philly).

With time, the precipitation will make a slow eastward jog
through the morning, with any lingering showers exiting the
coast around noon. Drying rapidly occurs for the rest of the
day, and cold-air advection begins in earnest as winds veer to
northwest and become gusty this afternoon. Models may be
underdoing cloud cover during the day, as mixing near the
surface and residual low-level moisture keep a scattered to
broken stratocumulus deck around. Trended the forecast more
pessimistic, but this is low confidence.

Temperatures will struggle to climb, though they may do so for
a time this morning as stronger cold-air advection trails the
wind shift. Forecast temperatures are heavily weighted to
met ecs mos, as the mav looked too warm.

Safe travels today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
Upstream of the potent vort MAX moving through the region
today, a surface high will build into the appalachians
overnight. With clear skies and a decreasing surface pressure
gradient, temperatures will be much colder tonight. Forecast
lows are several degrees below seasonal averages, ranging from
around 20 in the southern poconos to around 30 in the urban
corridor and at the coast. Northwest winds will be decreasing
during the period, possibly becoming light and variable late.

The main uncertainty with the forecast is how quickly the winds
will die down, with the potential for some temperature error if
winds diminish faster than progged (i.E., it would be colder).

For now, I used a model blend, as I do not have much of a feel
for how quickly the winds decouple tonight. With the trend for
the past day being subtly slower with the incoming high (and
departing vort max), it may take a bit longer for the winds to
diminish than the models suggest.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Fairly quiet weather is expected for most of the extended
period through next Tuesday, with a chance of isolated showers
this weekend.

High pressure is forecast to build across the area Thursday
into Friday and bring dry weather to the region. Temperatures
are forecast to be near or slightly below normal Thursday,
before warming back to near or slightly above normal Friday.

The high builds offshore Friday night in advance of an
approaching cold front coming through the area Saturday. Also,
an area of low pressure is forecast to be moving northeastward
offshore of the mid- atlantic coast on Saturday. This low is
currently expected to remain far enough offshore to not bring
major effects to the area Saturday. However, as the front moves
through Saturday there is a chance of isolated scattered showers
across the area. For Saturday night into Sunday, the low moves
farther to our northeast with high pressure to our west. This
will keep a strong northwest flow across the area Saturday night
and Sunday. It is possible that some isolated lake effect
showers could make their way across our area Saturday night into
Sunday in the northwest flow. Temperatures remain above normal
Saturday before the front moves through the area, but falls back
to near normal or slightly below for Sunday.

By Sunday night, high pressure begins to approach from the west
and the flow turns more northerly, cutting off the lake effect
showers potential across our area. The high pressure fully
builds across the area Monday, then pushes offshore by Tuesday.

This will bring dry weather back to the area early next week.

Temperatures are expected to be near normal or slightly below
for Monday, then warm back to above normal Tuesday as return
flow develops.

Aviation 10z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through this morning... GenerallyVFR from kphl northwestward
with a few showers possible, but CIGS likely holding
predominantly above MVFR. For miv acy, brief sub-vfr conditions
(particularly cigs) are likely in heavier showers, which will
continue through around 15z with rapid progression offshore
thereafter. A sct-bkn deck around 3500-5000 feet may continue
through the morning across the area, with winds veering to
northwest and becoming gusty around noon (speeds 10-15 kts with
gusts to 25 kts). Confidence low to medium. Frequent updates to
the tafs are likely during this time frame.

This afternoon... Northwest winds continue, with a diminishing
trend after 21z.VFR conditions should continue. Confidence
high.

Tonight...VFR with northwest winds continuing to diminish.

Confidence high.

Outlook...

Thursday-Friday night...VFR expected. Westerly winds Thursday-
early Friday. Becoming southwest later Friday into Friday night.

High confidence.

Saturday-Sunday... GenerallyVFR. Isolated showers possible
which may occasionally lower conditions. Southwest winds early
Saturday, becoming northwest and gusting 20-25 knots Saturday
night into Sunday. Moderate confidence on showers and sub-vfr
conditions, high confidence on winds.

Marine
No changes to the small craft advisories this morning as
northwest winds will pick up late this morning and exceed
criteria easily this afternoon and evening. Seas will likely
hover around 5 feet through tonight, as well. Showers, possibly
with a couple lightning strikes, are expected through the
morning hours, before improvement this afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday-Saturday... Sub small craft advisory conditions
expected, although seas may be around 4 feet Thursday before
subsiding.

Saturday night-Sunday... Small craft advisory conditions likely
behind cold frontal passage.

Equipment
The kdox radar remains out of service. Replacement parts are
expected to arrive on Wednesday, november 22nd.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from noon today to midnight est tonight
for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Robertson
aviation... Cms robertson
marine... Cms robertson
equipment... Gorse


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 11 mi58 min SSW 14 G 15 56°F 1013.2 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 12 mi100 min S 1 53°F 1013 hPa53°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 15 mi58 min SSW 6 G 8.9 57°F 52°F1013.1 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 19 mi52 min S 6 G 8 56°F 49°F1012.7 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 25 mi52 min ESE 1 G 1.9 51°F 51°F1012.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 44 mi52 min 50°F 47°F1012.1 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 45 mi58 min N 4.1 G 5.1 58°F 52°F1013.7 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 46 mi52 min S 1.9 G 4.1 51°F 46°F1012.4 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 47 mi80 min SSE 12 G 14 61°F 57°F3 ft1013.4 hPa (-2.2)59°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi58 min 53°F 50°F1014.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 48 mi58 min Calm G 1 50°F 47°F1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Brandywine Shoal Light, DE
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
Last
24hr
SW23
SW24
SW22
SW22
SW19
SW18
SW22
SW18
G22
SW19
SW15
SW17
S13
G17
S17
S18
S18
S17
S16
S17
S13
S16
W20
W17
G22
S17
SW15
1 day
ago
NW25
NW27
G36
NW20
G28
NW14
NW19
G23
NW13
G21
NW16
G21
W21
W19
G23
W19
W18
G22
W17
W14
SW16
SW17
SW17
SW18
SW17
SW19
SW24
SW20
SW20
SW20
SW22
2 days
ago
SW29
NW32
G39
NW36
NW32
G42
NW28
G41
NW26
G37
NW27
G36
NW25
G33
NW31
NW30
NW36
NW23
G29
NW28
G38
NW28
NW27
G34
NW26
NW29
W21
W23
NW24
G31
NW27
NW30
G38
NW26
G32
NW29
G35

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dover Air Force Base, DE16 mi74 minS 310.00 miPartly Cloudy53°F52°F100%1012.8 hPa
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE17 mi76 minS 77.00 miLight Rain57°F55°F93%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from DOV (wind in knots)
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
Last 24hrS10S8S11S14S17
G24
S18
G24
S13S16
G23
S14
G22
S10S10S7S7SE3S4S5S4S7SW3S8S5SW4S3SW7
1 day agoW11W8W10W13
G21
W11W11
G18
W13
G19
SW13
G18
W14W10SW6SW7SW5SW7S7S7S7S7S9S7S7S7S9S9
2 days agoW19
G32
W16
G30
W20
G28
W21
G30
W22
G31
W21
G29
W17
G26
W18
G28
W17
G25
W17
G28
W14
G20
W13
G23
W15
G23
W11W9W6W6W9W8W15
G21
W14
G22
W12W9W12
G19

Tide / Current Tables for Mispillion River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Mispillion River entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:04 AM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:07 AM EST     5.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:55 PM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:13 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:30 PM EST     3.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.73.12.21.40.70.40.71.52.53.74.654.94.33.32.31.20.50.30.61.42.33.23.7

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:59 AM EST     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:37 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:54 AM EST     1.31 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:04 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:34 PM EST     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:41 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:12 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:33 PM EST     1.00 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.6-0.9-1-0.8-0.40.20.81.21.31.10.60-0.6-1-1.2-1.2-0.9-0.40.20.60.910.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.