Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Slaughter Beach, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:18PM Friday July 28, 2017 9:05 AM EDT (13:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:34AMMoonset 10:38PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 633 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
.gale watch in effect from late tonight through late Saturday night...
Today..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se late this morning and early afternoon, then increasing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog early this morning. A slight chance of showers and tstms this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this morning.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Tstms likely in the evening. Showers. A chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt early in the afternoon, then increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain. A chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain with a chance of tstms early in the evening, then a chance of showers in the late evening and overnight.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 633 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak front will remain across the area today. Low pressure will develop near the tennessee valley today and move along the front south of our region tonight and Saturday. The low will then strengthen as it moves offshore Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday and remain into the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Slaughter Beach, DE
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location: 38.95, -75.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 281028
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
628 am edt Fri jul 28 2017

Synopsis
A weak front will remain across the area today. Low pressure will
develop along the front near the tennessee valley today and move
along the front south of our region tonight and Saturday. The low
will then strengthen as it moves offshore Saturday night and Sunday.

High pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday and remain into
the middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
This morning...

a dense fog advisory was issued for locations west of the fall
line in eastern pa and northern nj. Many of the ASOS awos sites
in the advisory area are reporting 1 4sm or less visibility at
sunrise. A quick look at traffic cameras do show that the fog
has not been particularly widespread, but sudden changes in
visibility can nonetheless be very hazardous. Expect the fog to
lift between 7 am and 9 am but the dense fog should generally be
patchy after 8 am.

A few showers and storms that were over eastern nj last night
has moved offshore. Additional scattered showers and isolated
storms did form over eastern md and delaware early this morning
as previously anticipated. With a weak shortwave trough passing
through, there could be additional convection through the rest
of the morning but it should generally be confined to the
delmarva peninsula. Some of these cells will contain brief
heavy downpours but they are disorganized and moving fast enough
to mitigate a flooding concern this morning.

This afternoon and tonight...

the stage is set for the second high impact heavy rainfall
event in less than a week across the southern tier of the
forecast area this afternoon and tonight.

The greatest concern over the next 24 hours will be flash
flooding. Here are a few points on this topic:
1) forecast confidence for the occurrence of heavy rainfall
is high.

2) there could be numerous occurrences of flash flooding late
this afternoon and tonight (i.E., not just a highly isolated
localized risk as we commonly see in summer-time flash flood
events).

3) a southward trend in the axis of heaviest QPF has been noted the
model guidance last night. This makes meteorological sense as the
sustained deeper convection needed to produce heavy rainfall rates
(greater than 2" per hour) will be favored in the unstable warm
sector along and south of the stationary front. We have seen several
events recently where this has happened and the heaviest rainfall
shifted farther south than earlier indications. We opted to trim the
northern tier of counties along i-195 in central new jersey and north
of the pa turnpike in eastern pennsylvania from the flash flood watch.

Otherwise the watch remains unchanged.

4) the axis of heaviest rain is looking like it could potentially
fall over the same areas south of the mason-dixon line that were
drenched with 3-6" (locally higher amounts) of rainfall since last
weekend. Since area basins and soils have not had time to recover,
it will not take nearly as much rain to flood.

5) the flash flood risk ramps up in DELMARVA late this afternoon
in concert with diurnal convection that develops along a
stationary front nearby. Complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms
containing torrential downpours is then expected to become
better organized as it expands northward into SE pa S nj this
evening. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue into the overnight.

There will also be a threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms
late this afternoon and into this evening, mainly across
delmarva. SPC has the southern two-thirds of the CWA (south of
i-78) in a d1 marginal risk for severe storms, which represents
a downgrade from the slight risk across DELMARVA with
yesterday's d2 outlook. The main convective threat would be
locally damaging winds from wet microbursts. Cloud cover,
especially over the southern half of area, should limit how much
the atmosphere can destabilize during the day, thus placing
some uncertainty on the severe setup.

Short term Saturday
The models are now trending back to a progressive solution that
pulls the coastal storm away from the area faster than
yesterday's runs were showing. There will still be rains and
gusty winds over the area Saturday morning, but the rains will
end from N W to S E during the day and into the evening. Kept
the 2 pm Saturday ending time for the flash flood watch, but it
may be able to be cancelled earlier if this latest trend holds
true.

Winds will become gusty as the low deepens and pulls away.

Highs will only be in the 60s over the lehigh valley and points
n W while highs in the low 70s will be over the delaware valley
and central nj. Highs over srn DELMARVA and the SRN tip of nj
could reach the upper 70s to low 80s on sat.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
A couple of showers could linger across southern DELMARVA or se
nj Sunday into early Monday, but by-in-large fair weather will
return to most of the area. High pressure near chicago Sunday
will begin to usher in drier air from the N w. Temperatures will
be a few degrees below normal with highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s over the SRN areas and low mid 70s across the north.

Lows will be in the 50s N W and low 60s S e.

The fair weather should extend deeper into next week as the high
continues to move across the ohio valley and then the middle
atlantic region. This and and rising h5 heights will contribute to
temperatures climbing back to above normal readings by mid-week.

Highs could reach the upper 80s with a few low 90s possible by
wed thu. An approaching front cloud bring a few tstms Thu afternoon
mostly to the N W areas.

Aviation 10z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Conditions have recently deteriorated to ifr overnight at all taf
sites. This is mainly due to fog at the northern terminals (abe-ttn)
and low clouds at the southern terminals. Visibilities at abe,
acy and rdg have been fluctuating to vlifr with 1 4 sm vsby at
times. Visibility will improve as the fog lifts by about 13z.

Tafs were recently amended to reflect a slower improvement of
the CIGS this morning with low clouds stubborn to erode owing
how much moisture is trapped beneath the nocturnal inversion.

Stratocu may briefly lead to MVFR CIGS in a few spots late this
morning, but an overall trend toVFR is expected this afternoon
across most terminals. Showers and thunderstorms developing
south and west of the terminals this afternoon are expected to
expand northeastward later in the day. This activity is expected
to organize become widespread after sunset this evening and
continue into the overnight. MVFR conditions are anticipated but
locally heavy rainfall will lead to poor visibility (lifr) at
times tonight. The heaviest rainfall and poorest visibilities is
expected to setup just south of phl.

Calm winds early this morning will become nely around 5 kt mid to
late morning. Winds will veer slightly out of the E and increase to
5-10 kt this afternoon, then back out the NE again and increase to
10-15 kt tonight as surface low pressure develops to our south.

Outlook...

sat Sat night... Widespread MVFR ifr slowly improving from N w
to S e. Winds becoming gusty. Sun... MostlyVFR, but a few
showers S e. Sun night thru tue...VFR expected. Patchy overnight
fog psbl.

Marine
Light and variable winds early this morning. A NE wind around 5-10
kt will develop across the coastal nj waters later this morning but
may briefly shift out of the E this afternoon. A NE wind will
strengthen tonight to around 10 kt in the de bay and adjacent
coastal waters and to around 15 kt farther north in the nj coastal
waters. Winds should quickly ramp up across these northern areas to
around 20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt early Saturday morning.

Outlook...

high end SCA or low end gale conditions for Sat into Sat night
for both the ocean and the bay, gale watch continues for now on
the ocean with some uncertainty remaining wrt locations and
intensity of psbl gale. The gale watch was expanded southward into
the de coastal waters and lower de bay.

Sca expected Mon into Tue on the ocean. Sub-sca later Tuesday.

Rip currents...

based on the latest trends and guidance, we will carry a low
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents today. While
the flow will become onshore today, wind speeds will be light.

Waves in the surf zone are expected to be in the 2-4 ft range.

A high risk is likely Saturday through Sunday, and possibly
into Monday.

Tides coastal flooding
Minor coastal flooding is possible Saturday night and Sunday
morning along the oceanfront. While astronomical tides lower,
a surge potential of 1-2 feet may put some oceanfront sites
into the minor category at the time of high tide.

There is the potential for high surf with breakers of at least
8 feet along oceanfront beaches on Saturday and Sunday. A high
surf advisory may be needed. Beach erosion is also possible.

Climate
Daily rainfall records for today and Saturday at our climate
sites are listed below...

7 28 7 29
acy 2.05 (2012) 2.21 (1884)
phl 8.02 (2013) 3.53 (1980)
ilg 2.34 (1914) 1.85 (1913)
abe 3.00 (1969) 1.64 (1979)
ttn 2.35 (2012) 2.84 (1961)
ged 2.80 (2016) 1.07 (1969)
rdg 3.57 (1969) 2.51 (1961)
mpo 2.15 (1969) 4.59 (1969)
july total
abe: 8.21" is the #8 wettest july on record. The wettest july
on record is 10.42" set in 1969.

Rdg: 8.02" is the #8 wettest july on record. The wettest july
on record is 13.85" set in 2004.

July average temps: projecting, for now, phl 0.9 above normal,
losing 1.3 positive departure from the values through the 26th.

Ditto approximately the same loss at our other cli sites will
show mpo a little below normal, ttn and acy near normal, and all
other stations above normal.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for paz054-055-
060>062-101-103-105.

Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
Saturday afternoon for paz070-071-101-102-104.

Nj... Dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for njz001-
007>010.

Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
Saturday afternoon for njz016>027.

De... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
Saturday afternoon for dez001>004.

Md... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through
Saturday afternoon for mdz008-012-015-019-020.

Marine... Gale watch from late tonight through late Saturday night for
anz431-450>455.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Klein
short term... O'hara
long term... O'hara
aviation... Klein o'hara
marine... Klein o'hara
tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 11 mi53 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 76°F 1010.7 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 12 mi95 min Calm 74°F 1010 hPa73°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 15 mi47 min Calm G 0 78°F 74°F1009.9 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 19 mi47 min E 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 76°F1009.8 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 25 mi47 min NE 7 G 8.9 72°F 81°F1010.1 hPa
BTHD1 32 mi185 min 2 ft
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 44 mi47 min 73°F 82°F1010.4 hPa
OCSM2 44 mi185 min 2 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 45 mi47 min SSW 5.1 G 6 74°F 74°F1010.7 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 46 mi47 min E 2.9 G 6 73°F 78°F1010.7 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 47 mi75 min SW 9.7 G 12 74°F 75°F3 ft1010.9 hPa (+0.5)73°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi53 min 81°F 83°F1010.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 48 mi53 min NE 5.1 G 8.9 74°F 83°F1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Brandywine Shoal Light, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dover Air Force Base, DE16 mi2.1 hrsN 07.00 miFair73°F73°F100%1010.4 hPa
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE17 mi71 minN 08.00 miFair76°F71°F85%1010.3 hPa
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ22 mi70 minNNE 510.00 miA Few Clouds75°F73°F94%1010.7 hPa

Wind History from DOV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S9S8S8S7S6S8S11S10S8S7SE4CalmS4CalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmS3CalmCalmNE6
1 day agoE4NE6E7E6E7E11SE9E8SE9SE9SE7SE5SE5S7SE5CalmSE6SE5SE6S6SE4S6S9S8
2 days agoN10N11N11N7NW7N5NW6N6NW5N5E4S6E9SE4E6E4SE6CalmE4SE3S3CalmCalmNE4

Tide / Current Tables for Mispillion River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Mispillion River entrance
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Fri -- 01:14 AM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:56 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:50 PM EDT     4.81 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:16 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.75.25.14.53.42.210.2-00.41.32.53.84.64.84.53.82.71.60.80.40.51.32.4

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:45 AM EDT     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:32 AM EDT     1.37 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:05 PM EDT     -1.17 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:50 PM EDT     1.29 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.80.1-0.5-1-1.3-1.4-1.1-0.50.20.91.31.310.4-0.2-0.7-1-1.2-1-0.50.10.71.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.