Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Woodstock, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:59PM Saturday February 23, 2019 10:20 AM EST (15:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:55PMMoonset 9:37AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 936 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Rest of today..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 936 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure developing over the middle mississippi river valley will strengthen as it moves northeastward across the great lakes into canada through Sunday. High pressure will build from the northern great plains toward the great lakes and eventually into the northeast through the first half of next week. Gale conditions are likely over the waters Sunday into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woodstock, VA
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location: 38.95, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 231433
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
933 am est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
Strong low pressure will move northeastward across
the western great lakes this weekend, bringing a warm front
northward into the area by early Sunday. A cold front
approaching from the ohio valley will quickly follow Sunday
afternoon. High pressure will then build from the great lakes
into new england through much of the week. Meanwhile, an area of
low pressure may approach from the ohio valley during the
middle of the week, and again by the end of the week.

Near term through tonight
Low pressure is currently developing over the southern plains
this morning will move northeastward toward the great lakes
through tonight. A stationary boundary to its east will be
lifted north as a warm front through tonight, but with surface
high pressure over new england and the parent surface low
passing so far west, our area will remain on the cool side of
the boundary. An upper-level disturbance will pass through in
the southwest flow aloft today and another one will move into
the area tonight.

Overrunning warm moist advection is expected to increase as the
low-level flow turns to the south, allowing for warm and moist
air to overrun the surface colder air in place. Also, with the
upper-level disturbance passing through today, there will be
increased lift at the mid-levels. This will allow for light rain
to develop across northern and central areas, but moderate rain
is expected across central virginia where overrunning will be
deeper. Temperatures are expected to hold at or below freezing
for elevations between 1500 and 4000 feet or so with cold air
draining in from high pressure to the north in this layer, with
a light glaze of freezing rain expected. Not as confident
further north over extreme western maryland in rain getting
there while temperatures are still at below freezing, but could
see the advisory needing to be expanded into extreme western
allegany county (perhaps into hardy county WV as well given
higher elevations here).

Overrunning will continue tonight so light rain is likely this
evening. However, a steadier rain is expected overnight as the
next upper-level disturbance moves into the area. In general
around an inch of rain is expected and guidance has come into
better agreement in where the heaviest rainfall is likely. A
little less rain (three quarters of an inch) is expected over
eastern west virginia and western maryland, but with saturated
ground and snowmelt some flooding issues could still result. Not
enough confidence for a watch given breaks between waves of
rain and lower amounts, but the threat there is non-zero
(especially for mainstem rivers that will collect all the excess
runoff). Further south across west- central virginia, amounts
of up to an inch and a half are possible. Higher confidence in
flooding threat here (where there is a flood watch through
tonight).

Short term Sunday through Monday night
The warm front should get to our doorstep Sunday morning, before
being overtaken by a cold front Sunday afternoon. Rain will become
more showery in nature before ending by around midday in the i-95
corridor, with perhaps some snow mixing in over the allegheny
front as it ends and colder air comes in later Sunday afternoon.

With strong cold air advection in the wake of a deep departing
surface low, gusty winds are expected to overtake the area Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening. Latest guidance has trended downward
(and a touch slower) from 24 hours ago. Still believe near high wind
warning criteria is possible over the higher elevations, so am
holding firm with the watch (though not confident for a warning this
far out). By the time the better gradient gets to the i-95 corridor,
we will be losing daytime mixing, so while it will be windy I could
see us falling just shy of advisory criteria (greater than 45 mph).

The cold air lags behind the front, so the downsloping westerly flow
should push highs well into the 60s early Sunday afternoon, before
temperatures fall rapidly when the colder air arrives by evening.

The best wind field actually crosses overnight Sunday night, so
while areas of northern maryland higher elevations closer to the
parent surface low wind field aloft could see strong gusty winds
through the overnight hours, believe this may result in sub-advisory
winds for much of the rest of the area in spite of the strengthening
wind field aloft.

The gradient will start to weaken Monday morning, but mixing will
start increasing, and could see another peak in stronger winds until
around midday, before things gradually start slackening off through
the afternoon. Given the saturated ground and extended period of
windy conditions, there is a heightened risk for downed trees (and
subsequently power outages), even in sub-advisory winds.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Sfc pattern will be largely dominated by high pressure to the
north while a predominately west to east mid-level flow will
prevail across the country. This is expected to result in
generally fair weather conditions. Temperatures will average
below normal due to persistent broad trough aloft over the
northeast and eastern canada. Precipitation will be scarce next
week outside of the appalachian mountains where scattered snow
showers and some light snow accumulation will be possible.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Deteriorating conditions are expected after noon as rain and lower
ceilings move in ahead of a warm front approaching from the
carolinas, with ifr likely by nightfall. Moderate rain is expected
overnight tonight reducing visibility possibly to ifr as well.

A cold front will move west to east across the terminals Sunday,
with gusty west winds and a return toVFR in its wake (35+ kts).

Gusty winds may persist Sunday night, especially near mrb. A
secondary peak in gusty winds is possible Monday morning.

Vfr conditions tue-wed with no significant weather.

Marine
Generally light northeast flow is expected through tonight. Winds
will shift around to the south and then west on Sunday as a warm
front approaching from the carolinas gets overtaken by a cold front
approaching from the ohio valley. Gusty winds to gale force are
likely by late Sunday afternoon, but with decreasing mixing in the
evening winds may fall a bit. Since it's late third period and a
potentially brief period of gale, have opted to not hoist the
headline just yet. Gales may continue peak again Monday morning as
flow becomes more northwesterly.

Sub-sca conditions Tue through Wed with SCA conditions possible
again thu.

Hydrology
Highest confidence in higher rainfall totals over an inch and
subsequently the threat for areal flooding is over west-central
virginia tonight, which is where the current flood watch lies.

Further north, rainfall amounts may come in a little shy of an inch,
but saturated ground and or snowmelt lends to a non-zero flood
threat just about everywhere. East of the blue ridge to the i-95
corridor should average near an inch, with slightly higher amounts
possible over southern maryland. Outside of the areal flood watch,
mainstem river flooding may be the biggest threat given these
waterways will be catching all the excess runoff.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... High wind watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
mdz501.

High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning
for mdz003-004-502.

Va... Flood watch through late tonight for vaz025-036-037-503-504-
508.

Winter weather advisory until noon est today for vaz503-504-
507-508.

High wind watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
vaz503-504-507-508.

Wv... Winter weather advisory until noon est today for wvz501-503-
505-506.

High wind watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
wvz501>503-505-506.

High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning
for wvz050>052-055-504.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bjl dhof
near term... Dhof
short term... Dhof
long term... Lfr
aviation... Bjl lfr dhof
marine... Bjl lfr dhof
hydrology... Dhof


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 86 mi50 min ENE 2.9 G 7 40°F 41°F1031.5 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from W45 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN5S3CalmS6S4S6N8NW16
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CalmN6N3NE3N3CalmN5N8
1 day agoN3Calm----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmE4CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6CalmCalm
2 days agoNW8N6N7
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S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4NW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
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Sat -- 02:42 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:41 AM EST     1.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:31 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:17 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:10 PM EST     1.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.100.30.711.31.51.61.41.10.80.50.2-00.10.40.711.21.31.31.1

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:41 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:31 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:04 AM EST     3.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:15 PM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:56 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:35 PM EST     3.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.40.70.1-0.3-0.40.11.22.333.33.12.51.81.10.5-0-0.4-0.20.61.62.533

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.