Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greensboro, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:00PM Sunday September 23, 2018 3:56 PM EDT (19:56 UTC) Moonrise 5:39PMMoonset 4:12AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 219 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am edt Monday through late Monday night...
This afternoon..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Drizzle or light rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Drizzle or light rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain likely.
Mon night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 219 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A frontal boundary will stall south of the waters through Monday. The front will return northward as a warm front Tuesday. A cold front will then approach the waters from the ohio valley Wednesday, and may stall near or south of the waters Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greensboro, MD
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location: 38.97, -75.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231522
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1122 am edt Sun sep 23 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build in from the north as low pressure slides
along the stalled front south of our area. The stalled front will
lift north as a warm front late Monday into Tuesday. A cold front is
expected to pass through the region late Wednesday into Thursday.

High pressure will then build in behind this front into next
weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
No significant changes expected for today's forecast. The front
that moved through last night will remain stalled out to our
south, while high pressure develops north of our area. Our area
will remain under a northeast to east flow at the surface, while
southwest to west flow aloft will keep enhanced moisture
spreading across the area. Several disturbances aloft will keep
enhanced lift across our area, north of the boundary to our
south. This combined enhanced lift and moisture will keep rain
across much of the area through the day today, especially for
southeastern pennsylvania, central southern new jersey,
delaware, and maryland. Rainfall will not be overly heavy,
although some pockets of moderate rainfall will occur at times.

Rainfall totals through today will be less than one quarter inch
across northeast pennsylvania and northern new jersey, with
between one quarter and one half inch across southeast
pennsylvania and central new jersey, to between one half to up
to three quarters across southern new jersey and delaware and
maryland. Far northern portions of pennsylvania and new jersey
may not recieve any additional rainfall at all today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
The pattern will remain the same tonight, but much of the
organized rains will end by evening with lowering chc from N to
s. We will still have low chc pops across DELMARVA for tonight.

Drier air from the north will return across NRN nj and NE pa. We
will not any precip in these N NW areas. Lows tonight will drop
into the upper 40s to low 50s across the north and remain in
the mid upper 50s in most other areas.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Summary: an unsettled weather pattern through out the week, but
there are two main time periods we are focused on. First with a
warm frontal passage Monday into Tuesday, there is some risk of
heavy rain. Second, Wednesday into Thursday, a cold front will
bring the next widespread chance for rain.

Details:
Monday and Monday night... Warm front is expected to lift north
through our region through this period. As a result, expect rain
across much of the area for at least part of this period. Given
a very robust mid level inversion, expect mostly stratiform rain
through this period. Consequently, not expecting any
thunderstorms. However, there is a concern for heavy rain given
precipitable water values above 1.6 inches for much of the area.

While this is a far cry from the 2 inch+ amounts we were
discussing just a few weeks ago, it is significantly above
normal for this time of year. Additionally, an easterly low
level jet will result in persistent moisture advection through
the period.

Tuesday... Once we get in the warm sector, there should be
modest instability so we could see the precipitation transition
to more convective showery. Instability will be limited though,
so expecting mostly showers, with a few thunderstorms possible.

Precipitable water values will continue to be well above normal
through this period, so the risk for heavy rain remains the
primary concern.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... The main concern in this period is
when or even if we will see the dry slot ahead of the next round
of precipitation associated with the cold front. Thus, kept the
mention of showers and thunderstorms through this period, but it
is not expected to be a washout through the entire period.

Wednesday night through Saturday... Most of the 00z models
depict the first cold front completely clearing our area
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning before stalling
southeast of our area. This is a change from the 12z model
runs, where some depicted the front stalling over our area
before a secondary frontal passage later Friday. None the less,
even with the front stalling south of our area, we could see
additional showers Thursday into Thursday night as a low
propagates along the front. Given the lack of run to run
consistency, stayed close to the previous forecast through
Friday with low chance mention of showers, with a dry forecast
from Friday night onward.

Aviation 15z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... GenerallyVFR conditions start today across the area,
although a brief period of MVFR may occur with some moderate
rainfall before more widespread MVFR conditions develop by this
afternoon. Rainfall is expected to continue through this
afternoon for southeastern pennsylvania, central southern new
jersey, delaware, and maryland. Winds will remain 5-10 knots out
of the northeast to east, although abe and rdg may become light
and variable at times.

Tonight... The MVFR conditions will likely continue into this
evening and overnight, although a slow improvement both to cigs
and vsbys as the rains end from SW to NE could occur later
during the overnight. Winds will be mostly light from the N or
ne.

Outlook...

Monday and Monday night... Some locations may startVFR, but
expect ceilings to lower to MVFR through the day. Localized ifr
conditions are possible especially Monday night. The chance for
rain increases from south to north through the day as well.

Easterly winds 10 to 15 kt with higher gusts possible. Moderate
confidence.

Tuesday... Starting MVFR or even ifr, but should see gradual
improvement through the day. Chance for showers and even a few
thunderstorms through the day. Winds shifting to southeasterly and
decreasing through the day. Low confidence.

Tuesday night... VFR conditions possible in the evening, but fog
and or stratus may develop overnight. Light and variable winds. Low
confidence.

Wednesday and Wednesday night... MostlyVFR conditions are expected.

However, lower conditions are possible with a period of showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Once the cold front passes,
expect a shift to northerly winds and improving conditions. Moderate
confidence.

Thursday and Thursday night... MostlyVFR conditions, though there is
a chance for showers which could briefly lower conditions. Low
confidence.

Marine
Winds and seas are expected to increase later today and
therefore we will leave the SCA flag 'as is' for now. Rain will
overspread the waters this morning and persist into the afternoon.

Seas will be mostly 3 to 4 ft across the ocean and 1 to 2 ft across
delaware bay.

Outlook...

Monday and Monday night... SCA conditions for both gusty
easterly winds and elevated seas are expected.

Tuesday through Thursday... Winds are expected to remain below sca
criteria, so SCA conditions are unlikely on the delaware bay.

However, elevated seas on the ocean waters may continue through at
least Wednesday night. An abrupt wind shift to northerly winds is
expected Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Rip currents...

a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
is expected today.

Tides coastal flooding
An increasing onshore flow is expected for Monday and the
astronomical tides will be high due to the full harvest moon. As a
result, there may be some minor flooding along the coasts and bays
of new jersey and delaware, as well as along the tidal delaware
river, with the high tide on Monday evening and Monday night.

The onshore flow is forecast to continue through Monday night before
veering to the south on Tuesday, from south to north. As a result,
there may be another round of minor flooding with Tuesday morning's
high tide, especially along the new jersey coast from the atlantic
city area northward. While the etss output is indicating that the
highest water levels will be on Monday evening, the estofs is
hinting at more of a problem on Tuesday morning in spots. We will
continue to monitor the trends in the forecast models.

Equipment
Kdix is back online. We apologize for any inconvenience.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 6 am edt Tuesday
for anz452-453.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Monday to 6 am edt Tuesday for
anz450-451.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 am edt
Tuesday for anz454-455.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Monday to 2 am edt Tuesday for
anz430-431.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Robertson o'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Johnson
aviation... Johnson robertson o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 22 mi147 min N 2.9 62°F 1023 hPa62°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 28 mi39 min E 2.9 G 7 61°F 72°F1023 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 30 mi39 min 63°F 75°F1022.7 hPa
CPVM2 30 mi39 min 63°F 63°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 33 mi39 min NE 7 G 8 63°F 75°F1022.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 33 mi57 min ENE 11 G 13 62°F 73°F1023.3 hPa (-0.4)62°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi39 min 64°F 1022.1 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 37 mi39 min NE 17 G 20 65°F 1022.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 38 mi39 min Calm G 1.9 62°F 72°F1023 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 39 mi39 min ENE 18 G 20 1021.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 41 mi39 min NE 7 G 8 63°F 1022.6 hPa
FSNM2 41 mi39 min NE 7 G 8.9 62°F 1022.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 43 mi37 min E 16 G 18 66°F 1022.6 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 44 mi39 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 62°F 66°F1022.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 45 mi39 min E 8 G 9.9 63°F 76°F1022.4 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 46 mi39 min NE 8 G 12 64°F 74°F1021.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 49 mi39 min ENE 16 G 18 64°F 1022.2 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 49 mi147 min E 2.9 59°F 1023 hPa59°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD17 mi67 minE 61.50 miLight Rain63°F62°F100%1023.7 hPa
Dover Air Force Base, DE22 mi2 hrsN 82.75 miRain63°F61°F95%1023 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9N9N7N9NE8NE7N5--------------N4NE6E4E4E4NE7NE7NE8NE11E6
1 day agoS9S7S6S5S10S8S7--------------NW5CalmCalmN5N4N8N7N5N8N8
2 days agoSE6SE8SE8SE5SE4SE3SE3--------------SE4CalmCalmSE8S5--S5SW6--S9

Tide / Current Tables for Greensboro, Choptank River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Denton, Choptank River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.