Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 3:56 AM   Moonset 5:36 PM

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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 136 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
This afternoon - SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Tonight - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tue - N winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers. Tue night - S winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers. A chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Fri - NW winds 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 136 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters during the middle to late part of the week.

FXUS61 KPHI 061525 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1125 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains centered over the Canadian Maritimes and will sag out to sea throughout the day. Meanwhile, a cold front approaches from the west and works its way through the region tonight before becoming nearly stationary south of Delmarva. Low pressure tracks along the front late tonight through Tuesday morning. Another area of low pressure passes through the region on Wednesday followed by a stronger low on Thursday. A cold front passes through on Friday. Several disturbances are possible this upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
A cold front will approach from the west today. Warm advection will ramp up a little bit, though with mostly cloudy skies persisting, not convinced it will get as warm as the NBM is showing. For the midday update, I further trimmed afternoon highs across the forecast area except for Delmarva. Expecting highs to be mainly in the 60s to lower 70s with mid to upper 70s within Delmarva. A few showers are possible ahead of the front as it slowly approaches through the day. A rumble of thunder can't be ruled out, though not expecting any severe weather.

For tonight, the front slowly slides south and east. Forcing will be enhanced by an incoming shortwave. With the front positioned over Delmarva/southern New Jersey tonight, periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms are expected. Most of the rain should be confined to areas south of Philadelphia, but can't rule out a few showers tonight as far north as the I-78 corridor. Again, should just be some garden variety showers/storms if anything, though anywhere from a quarter to a half inch of rain is anticipated down around southern New Jersey and Delmarva. Elsewhere, it will be mostly cloudy with some patchy fog. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s/low 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Low pressure will be just east of Delaware and the southern tip of New Jersey Tuesday morning. Surface dew points across Delmarva and southern New Jersey will be in the low to mid 60s, and right after sunrise, SB CAPE values will rise to as high as 500 J/kg. This should be enough for some thunderstorms to flare up along with those lingering showers. This first round of showers and thunderstorms should taper off by lunchtime as low pressure moves offshore. Highs will be around 10 degrees above normal for this time of the year, topping off in the upper 70s to around 80 for most of the region, and in the upper 60s to low 70s near the coasts.

Another area of low pressure will track from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. A warm front extending out from that system will lift towards southwest portions of the forecast area late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon and evening, and then become likely for most of the region after midnight Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning as that warm front lifts through the region. Precipitation tapers off by midday Wednesday, and then a warm and humid airmass will be in place.
Highs top off in the mid to upper 80s, except for the low 80s in the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey, and in the 70s along the coasts. Surface dew points will be in the upper 50s to low 60s in the afternoon.

Low pressure approaches from the west Wednesday night, and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into portions of southeast Pennsylvania and Delmarva late Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A closed upper low will move into the Great Lakes, and surface low pressure develops over the Ohio Valley and tracks towards western New York and western Pennsylvania on Thursday.
Meanwhile, a secondary low will develop out ahead of this primary low, and more widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms will move into the region Thursday afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms taper off Thursday night as the secondary low moves offshore. The primary low will track across northern New York and northern New England on Friday, and this will drag a cold front through the region Friday afternoon and evening. Yet another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the area during that time.

Behind the cold front, surface high pressure builds east.
Several weak disturbances may touch off some afternoon showers on Saturday and Sunday.

Clouds and showers will knock temperatures down on Thursday compared to Wednesday with highs ranging from the low to mid 60s in the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey to the upper 60s to low 70s for most of southeast Pennsylvania and the rest of New Jersey to the mid and upper 70s in Delmarva. Highs will then be in the 60s for southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey and in the low to mid 70s in Delmarva on Friday. Below normal highs expected for Saturday and Sunday, generally in the low to mid 60s.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Low ceilings and patchy fog are lifting. Some sites could lift all the way to VFR. Thinking the highest chance for that will be within the Lehigh Valley. Otherwise, MVFR CIGs for most of the day once the fog/low stratus lifts with VFR VSBYs for the afternoon and early evening. Winds 5 kt or less out of varying directions. Moderate confidence in timing and extent of restrictions.

Tonight...MVFR/VFR conditions likely drop to IFR around midnight or so. Some patchy fog possible. Winds light and variable. Low confidence in timing/extent of restrictions.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...Sub-VFR conditions at night in fog and stratus, while VFR conditions overall during the day. Chances for SHRA/TSRA throughout the period with sub-VFR conditions.
More widespread SHRA with scattered TSRA Thursday afternoon and evening.

MARINE
Outside of a Dense Fog Advisory running through 2 pm, there are no other marine headlines. Seas will be 2 to 4 feet with winds out of the southeast/south around 5 kts across northern NJ and 5 to 15 kts across our southern waters. Periods of showers expected, with a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms early Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...Overall, sub-SCA conditions through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will result in locally higher wind gusts and seas, with biggest impacts coming on Thursday afternoon and evening.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides will be elevated this week with a new moon on Tuesday. Minor tidal flooding and spotty moderate tidal flooding is likely during the high tide cycles starting Tuesday evening and continuing into at least Thursday. Coastal Flood Advisories will be needed.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ450- 451.

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Greensboro
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Mon -- 12:41 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:06 AM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:07 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:21 PM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Greensboro, Choptank River, Maryland, Tide feet

Denton
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:20 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:42 PM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Denton, Choptank River, Maryland, Tide feet

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