Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kent Narrows, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:45PM Thursday December 13, 2018 4:39 AM EST (09:39 UTC) Moonrise 11:42AMMoonset 10:35PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 336 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Rest of the overnight..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
ANZ500 336 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over new england will slide off the coast tonight. Low pressure near the arklatex region will travel through the tennessee valley on Friday, nearing the waters Friday night into Saturday, bringing unsettled weather. Conditions will remain unsettled into Sunday before high pressure builds over the waters early next week. Small craft advisory conditions likely for portions of the waters Friday night and into Saturday. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible Sunday and Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kent Narrows, MD
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location: 38.97, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 130848
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
348 am est Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis
A weak low pressure system will pass just north of the area today.

Another area of low pressure will track through the deep south on
Friday and into the mid atlantic by this weekend. High pressure will
then build in and hang around through midweek. Another low pressure
system may impact the region late in the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Clipper system over the eastern great lakes will continue to track
east and will be over western ny and western pa by daybreak. Based
on the latest model guidance, the surface low seems to fizzle out as
it tracks east. The 500 mb low, however, remains fairly strong , and
there is strong shortwave energy associated with it that will pass
north of the region later today.

Light snow will develop across northern zones prior to daybreak, and
becomes steadier and more persistent across the southern poconos and
far NW nj by this afternoon. Liquid QPF amounts will be fairly low,
generally between 1 10-2 10 inch, and this should yield about an
inch of snow, generally along and north of i-80. In some of the
higher elevations, however, up to 2 inches of snow will fall, and
still cannot rule out an isolated 3 inch report.

For areas along and south of i-78 to around i-195, snow this morning
will mix with and eventually change to rain by midday or so. Again,
qpf amounts will be light, generally less than 1 10", so not much at
all in the way of snow will accumulate, and in these areas, snow
will melt off by this afternoon.

Behind the departing upper low, onshore flow develops with east-
southeast winds, generally less than 10 mph. With ocean temps
currently in the upper 40s to around 50, can expect high temps in
much of coastal and southeast nj and DELMARVA to warm up into the
mid and upper 40s, and highs in the upper 30s from around i-80 to i-
78. In the southern poconos and northern nj, highs will top off in
the lower 30s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
Tricky forecast for tonight. The closed h5 low moves out to sea in
the evening, and then h5 ridging builds to the north and east.

Persistent onshore flow continues, and this results in increasing
low level moisture across the region, and bufkit profiles show the
atmosphere becoming saturated below 2000 feet or so.

Some very weak mid-level shortwave energy will pass through the
region as well, and this may be just enough to touch off some light
precipitation. The issue that arises is that for far northern
zones, generally the southern poconos and northern nj, surface temps
will be at or just below freezing, and temps at about 2000-3000
feet or so start climbing above freezing. This means that there
will be some patchy freezing rain for areas along and north of
i-78 late tonight and into early Friday morning. Soundings also
indicate some spots where temps remain below freezing through
the column, resulting in light snow as well. Model pops are
fairly low, generally slight chance, so not expecting a
widespread freezing rain event, but there should be at least
some freezing rain and or freezing drizzle, and possibly some
black ice developing as that low level moisture increases at the
surface.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Friday through Sunday... The next system of the extended starts to
develop in the deep south. This system starts to track up into the
southeastern united states by Friday night. As the low makes its way
to the northeast, a secondary low forms along the carolina coast.

The gfs, canadian, and the ECMWF show this low developing out ahead
of the stronger low to its west.

One good thing since last nights models runs, is that the guidance
is trending towards one another. While they still have some
differences, the general trend has been towards the gfs, which means
more rain for the region through the weekend. With warm air pushing
in from the south, this looks to be largely a rain event and we
could see around 1-2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts
possible (pwats rise to ~1.25-1.50 inches) across our forecast area
before all is said and done. While flooding is not a major concern
at this time due to the recent dry conditions, it will need to be
monitored as we have been wetter than usual this year and with
colder ground we will see more runoff occur. Some snow may mix in
across the higher elevations of northwest nj and northeastern pa
Saturday night. Snow may mix in again as the low wraps up and exits
the region on Sunday night with a slightly further extent than the
night before.

Monday through Wednesday... This period looks to be fairly quiet.

Some light rain snow may linger, especially across the north,
through Monday afternoon but a drying trend is expected and any
amounts would be light. A weak boundary will drop southward through
the region on Monday, which will cool temperatures a bit as we head
into Tuesday. High pressure builds into the area on Tuesday and will
persist through the middle of the week.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... GenerallyVFR conditions, however, there will be temporary
MVFR conditions in snow this morning at krdg kabe, and then rain and
snow from kphl north for this afternoon. Will carry prob30 groups
with 06z tafs. Light and variable winds, becoming east or east-
southeast 5-10 kt.

Tonight... Patchy light freezing drizzle and or light snow possible
at kabe late tonight. MVFR CIGS developing at krdg kabe.VFR
otherwise. Lgt vrb winds.

Outlook...

Friday... MainlyVFR early with conditions deteriorating towards
midday. Rain will develop by late morning and overspread the
terminals through the afternoon. East to southeast winds less than
10 knots.

Friday night through Sunday... MVFR ifr conditions expected with
periods of moderate to heavy rain. Some light snow may mix in at
krdg and kabe Sunday night. East to northeast winds around 5 to 10
knots on Friday, with winds around 10 to 15 knots on Saturday and
Sunday with higher gusts possible.

Monday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Light rain snow showers
possible early, mainly kabe and krdg. West to northwest winds around
10 to 15 knots.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions expected today and tonight. Onshore flow
increases on the ocean waters to 10-20 kt, but conditions should
remain below SCA criteria. Seas mostly 2-3 ft on the ocean, building
to 3-4 ft, and 1-2 ft across delaware bay.

Outlook...

Friday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions expected. Southeast
winds around 10 to 15 knots.

Friday night through Sunday... Small craft advisory conditions
likely. Seas will build reaching 5 feet on the southern waters by
late Saturday morning becoming 6 to 10 feet by Sunday, highest
across the northern waters. Northeast winds around 10 to 15 knots on
Saturday will increase through Saturday night becoming 15 to 20
knots on Sunday. Gale force gusts possible on Sunday.

Sunday night through Monday... Seas will decrease overnight but
remain above 5 feet through Monday. Winds will remain gusty out of
the north to northwest around 15 to 20 knots with gale force gusts
possible.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Meola
aviation... Meola mps
marine... Meola mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 8 mi39 min 41°F 35°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 11 mi99 min SE 14 G 15 40°F 41°F1023.9 hPa37°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 12 mi39 min 41°F 1022.8 hPa (+0.5)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 17 mi39 min SE 7 G 12 40°F 40°F1023.3 hPa (+0.3)
FSNM2 23 mi45 min SE 9.9 G 12 40°F 1022.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 23 mi39 min ESE 8 G 8.9 39°F 1023 hPa (+0.4)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 27 mi39 min SE 5.1 G 8 1022.6 hPa (+0.3)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 28 mi129 min SSE 5.1 38°F 1023 hPa33°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 29 mi39 min 1023.9 hPa (+0.4)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 40 mi39 min S 11 G 13 41°F 1024.1 hPa (+0.5)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 41 mi39 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1 40°F 40°F1022.9 hPa (+0.5)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 44 mi129 min SE 1.9 35°F 1025 hPa31°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi39 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1 36°F 39°F1024.2 hPa (+0.5)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 46 mi39 min SSE 7 G 8.9 41°F 42°F1023.3 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD4 mi59 minSE 810.00 miOvercast41°F35°F81%1023.4 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD12 mi45 minSE 89.00 miOvercast44°F35°F71%1023.2 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi42 minSE 610.00 miOvercast41°F33°F77%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W4CalmW3NW4CalmCalmNW5N4CalmSE5S4S3SE4S5SE5SE4SE6SE5SE6SE9SE8SE7SE9
1 day agoN3N3CalmCalmN3NW4NW4W4CalmCalmCalmSE4CalmSE4SW5SW6W7W9NW8NW7NW5CalmW4W6
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Tide / Current Tables for Kent Island Narrows, Maryland
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Kent Island Narrows
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Thu -- 03:57 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:56 AM EST     0.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:52 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:18 PM EST     1.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:35 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.30.20.10.20.40.60.70.80.70.60.40.20.100.10.30.60.91.11.21.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Thu -- 03:24 AM EST     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:56 AM EST     0.60 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:09 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:40 PM EST     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:09 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:33 PM EST     0.67 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:35 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.