Parole, MD Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Parole, MD

May 4, 2024 5:10 PM EDT (21:10 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM
Moonrise 3:07 AM   Moonset 3:09 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 435 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024

.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon - .

Rest of this afternoon - E winds 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers with areas of drizzle.

Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.

Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.

Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog.

Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Mon night - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Tue - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 435 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a boundary will remain to the south and west of the waters through tonight before returning as a warm front Sunday into Monday. Another cold front will stall near the waters for the middle and latter portions of next week. Small craft advisories may need to be extended into Sunday night for portions of the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parole, MD
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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 041900 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 300 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A stalled frontal boundary will remain draped to the south of the forecast area through tonight before returning north as a warm front late this weekend. This system will bring on and off showers and possible thunderstorms. A secondary cold front will move through the area on Monday before lifting northward as a warm front on Tuesday. This boundary eventually stalls to the north by the middle of the week. This will bring a prolonged period of unsettled weather through much of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
After multiple days in the 80s with well above normal temperatures, today is bringing quite the contrary to the region. Thanks to a cold air damming signature, an easterly onshore flow regime has ushered the cool, stable Atlantic air inland. Temperature gains through the day have been minimal as most location have not been able to escape the low/mid 50s.
Have continued to favor the coldest pieces of guidance which at times have not been chilly enough. With the frontal zone down into North Carolina, the Mid-Atlantic region will remain wedged in through the remainder of the day.

Underneath the thick low stratus deck, the latest Mid-Atlantic radar mosaic shows light showers and drizzle pushing toward the northeast. While the low-level winds are easterly, aircraft soundings in the area show pronounced southwest to westerly flow above 3,000 feet. This stable configuration will be maintained through the remainder of the day. Consequently, thunderstorm chances were removed given the lack of convective elements in this regime.

Shortwave energy lifting out of the Tennessee Valley will carry a more organized batch of showers through the region overnight.
Another quarter to half inch of rain is possible with this next batch, locally a bit higher in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
Forecast low temperatures stay fairly close to the readings reported right now. Widespread low to mid 50s are likely with a few upper 40s possible across northeastern Maryland. Easterly winds persist which helps maintain that thick area of marine stratus clouds.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Expect warmer temperatures for Sunday as the mentioned boundary returns northeastward as a warm front. Model guidance is notoriously too quick in lifting these boundaries poleward.
Thus, there may be some north-south temperature gradient over the forecast area where locations near the Mason-Dixon Line stay much cooler. The current forecast package calls for mid/upper 60s across northern Maryland and the local mountains.
Meanwhile, low/mid 70s are more commonplace elsewhere. There may be some breaks in the cloud cover as winds shift from easterly to south-southeasterly. Where these breaks occur will dictate where any convective threat resides. For now, have placed a bulk of the area with a slight chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Gradually taper off this threat into the overnight hours as any instability is lost after dark. Some patchy fog is possible given recent rainfall, decreasing winds, and a moist boundary layer. Nighttime lows remain mild, generally staying in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

An approaching cold front ends up on the door step of the local area on Monday. This system eventually stalls in the vicinity by late Monday night. Its close proximity to the area will maintain shower and thunderstorm chances to start off the work week. However, temperatures should warm up rather markedly with the Mid-Atlantic fully into the warm sector. Forecast highs are in the upper 70s to low 80s, locally in the upper 60s to low 70s across mountain locales. Expect yet another mild night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Compared to typical early May nights, this is around 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The unsettled and active weather pattern is likely to continue through the rest of the week, then possibly dry out next weekend.
Aloft, nearly zonal flow continues as several shortwave troughs traverse the region. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is likely to be located north of the area, over central to southern PA, through mid week as a few waves of low pressure move across it.
Moisture and instability are likely to be plentiful each day, leading to scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Most of the daytime activity dissipates by late evening, though a few showers could linger through the overnight. There is some model agreement for drier conditions next weekend as surface high pressure builds into the region.

The most active period looks to be Wednesday night through Thursday evening. This is when the strongest mid-level trough of the week and an associated surface cold front cross the Mid-Atlantic. Our area should be squarely in the warm sector, with plenty of instability and moisture available (PWATs over 1.5-1.6" possible). Some strong to severe storms are possible Thursday as a line of storms develop along the passing cold front. The better chances for severe storms look to be east of the Blue Ridge where ample instability and shear (model soundings indicate 40-50kt of bulk shear) are more likely to be present. The biggest question mark is whether early morning cloud cover dissipates in time to allow for better instability to develop.
Moderate to heavy rainfall is also possible areawide, which could lead to some instances of flooding (though it is also highly dependent on how much rain falls in the prior days).

Temperatures continue to warm through mid week as highs in the low 80s Tuesday reach the mid to upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday.
Slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s behind the cold front Friday into Saturday. Very mild overnight lows in the 60s, then cooling a bit to the 50s Friday night.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The cold air damming wedge signature is maintaining steady easterly onshore flow across the area. This is impacting all terminals with persistent IFR ceilings and visibilities meandering between IFR and MVFR. Additionally, light showers and drizzle continue to push northeastward through the area. There is no threat for any thunderstorms given the stable nature of the atmosphere. Restrictions will persist through the night and into a good chunk of Sunday.

A stalled boundary to the south should eventually move across the area by Sunday afternoon/evening. Once in the more unstable environment, a few thunderstorms are possible, particularly for the southern/western TAF sites. A few locations may briefly return to VFR conditions. However, there is a decent signature of some patchy fog development on Sunday night. This could bring additional flight restrictions.

Winds shift from south-southeasterly to southwesterly on Monday.
An approaching cold front may bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the area. Confidence is low in the spatial coverage of this convection. VFR conditions should be in place through most of the day though.

Unsettled weather conditions expected to continue through mid week as a frontal boundary remains to our north. Scattered to widespread showers and storms are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening, then again Wednesday afternoon. Shower/storm activity decreases at night, though some showers could linger. Any strong shower/storm could produce brief sub-VFR conditions at any terminal, in addition to gusty winds and lightning strikes. Outside of shower/storm activity, VFR conditions are likely.

MARINE
Easterly flow is in place across all of the waterways. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for a majority of the waters through tonight. While current observations do not show 20 knot gusts in many locations, these may be a bit sporadic at times.
Some vertical mixing should occur at times given the low-level thermal gradient formed over the milder waters.

Have opted to continue the Small Craft Advisories through Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly over the Chesapeake Bay. Winds will have shifted over to south-southeasterly at this point.
This threat of advisory caliber gusts may persist into Sunday night over the lower waters. As a warm front approaches from the south, a few thunderstorms are possible on Sunday, especially those south of I-66/U.S. 50. Heading into Monday, there will be a better chance for diurnal thunderstorm activity. Any of the stronger storms may necessitate Special Marine Warnings.

The active weather pattern continues through mid week as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms move across the local waters each afternoon/evening. The strongest storms could produce wind gusts to 35 knots and lightning strikes. Southerly channeling could result in near-SCA conditions in the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay Tuesday afternoon/evening. SCA conditions are possible for several hours Wednesday afternoon over most of the local waters.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Coastal flooding is expected to continue through at least Monday morning due to persistent east to southeast winds. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for Annapolis and Straits Point tonight as moderate tidal flooding is expected, and could occur again Sunday night. Most locations are likely to reach minor flood stage during the Saturday night to Sunday morning high tide cycle, and once again during the Sunday night to Monday morning high tide. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect, and are likely to be extended and/or reissued through Sunday night.

Winds turn southwest Monday, though it will likely take time for water levels to receded as winds vary from southwest to south through the middle of next week. Additional periods of coastal flooding are possible.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ017.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ018.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ530-541.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ531-532- 538>540-542.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ533-534-537- 543.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ536.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 4 mi52 min ENE 11G15 69°F30.23
44063 - Annapolis 5 mi46 min E 18G23 50°F 64°F1 ft
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 8 mi70 min ENE 9.9G12 52°F 30.26
CPVM2 9 mi70 min 53°F 53°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 15 mi46 min E 19G23 51°F 63°F1 ft
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 16 mi100 min E 2.9 54°F 30.2453°F
CBCM2 17 mi52 min ESE 14G17 66°F30.21
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 17 mi52 min ESE 8.9G15
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 21 mi52 min ESE 7G13 69°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 23 mi52 min E 5.1G8 30.25
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 26 mi52 min ESE 4.1G6 70°F30.22
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 29 mi46 min E 16G21 51°F 64°F1 ft
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 37 mi52 min ESE 13G18 65°F30.24
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 40 mi52 min N 11G13 30.23
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 45 mi52 min ENE 8.9G11 65°F30.21


Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFME TIPTON,MD 14 sm21 minE 071/2 smOvercast52°F50°F94%30.26
KBWI BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTL THURGOOD MARSHALL,MD 16 sm16 minE 091/2 smOvercast Lt Drizzle Mist 52°F52°F100%30.23
KADW JOINT BASE ANDREWS,MD 20 sm15 minE 091/2 smOvercast Mist 54°F52°F94%30.19
KCGS COLLEGE PARK,MD 20 sm20 minENE 052 smOvercast Lt Drizzle Mist 54°F52°F94%30.23
Link to 5 minute data for KNAK


Wind History from NAK
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Tide / Current for Gingerville Creek, South River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
   
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Gingerville Creek, South River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet



Tide / Current for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Sat -- 02:37 AM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:58 AM EDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:10 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:00 PM EDT     0.62 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:59 PM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:56 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
12
am
0.3
1
am
0.6
2
am
0.8
3
am
0.8
4
am
0.7
5
am
0.4
6
am
-0
7
am
-0.4
8
am
-0.7
9
am
-0.8
10
am
-0.7
11
am
-0.4
12
pm
-0.1
1
pm
0.3
2
pm
0.5
3
pm
0.6
4
pm
0.5
5
pm
0.3
6
pm
-0.1
7
pm
-0.4
8
pm
-0.7
9
pm
-0.8
10
pm
-0.7
11
pm
-0.4




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic   
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