Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Parole, MD

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Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:55PM Monday August 20, 2018 5:08 AM EDT (09:08 UTC) Moonrise 3:02PMMoonset 12:18AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 434 Am Edt Mon Aug 20 2018
Rest of the overnight..NE winds 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers with patchy drizzle.
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 434 Am Edt Mon Aug 20 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build to the north today while a front remains stalled to the south. A warm front will lift northward through the waters on Tuesday. A cold front will sweep to the east on Wednesday followed by modified canadian high pressure taking hold through week's end. A small craft advisory may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parole, MD
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location: 38.97, -76.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 200800
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
400 am edt Mon aug 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build to the northeast today while a front
remains stalled to the south. Low pressure will pass northwest
of the area Tuesday, lifting a warm front northward. A cold
front will sweep eastward on Wednesday, with high pressure
building from the west for the end of the week.

Near term through tonight
Even though a stationary front is near the north carolina border
early this morning, a theta-e gradient aloft remains over the
area with some elevated instability, and it's gradually lifting
northward. In addition, a shortwave trough is crossing the area.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to generate in central
virginia due to these features. Even though the elements are
moving, the regeneration may cause some locally high rainfall
totals. On the whole, this activity will weaken as it moves
northward into more stable air, but may end up needing to expand
the coverage of pops northward depending on trends. A little
drizzle may be observed elsewhere.

The front will remain south of us today while high pressure is
situated over new england. Low clouds will be the rule through
the morning, though the may begin to break lift a bit during
the afternoon, especially in the metros. Showers and perhaps
some embedded thunderstorms will be most probable in central
virginia where instability will be greater, although easterly
upslope winds may cause some showers over the mountains as well.

The clouds will hold temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Strengthening low pressure will be lifting into the great lakes
tonight, which will cause the front to slowly start lifting
north (though unlikely to clear our area due to the lingering
high pressure wedge). The best moisture and lift will be over
the mountains, but can't rule out a shower anywhere. There could
be an embedded rumble of thunder, but instability will be
minimal. Lows will be in the 60s to lower 70s.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
Tuesday and Tuesday night still looks like an active period
across the region. The warm front will likely lift to the north
during the day, but plentiful moisture and instability will
likely lead to showers and some storms as it does so. This
activity, combined with cloud cover, continues to raise
questions about available instability. However, as the upper
trough approaches later in the day, deep shear will increase to
30-40 knots, which will likely act to organize some
thunderstorms along a prefrontal trough late in the day and
evening. The higher chances of severe weather may increase with
westward extent, where shear will be higher and storms are more
likely during the diurnally favorable time of day. Damaging
winds will be the primary threat, though it is worth noting
there is a good amount of turning of winds in the lower
atmosphere which could lead to rotating updrafts. Precipitable
water amounts over 2 inches could lead to heavy rainfall, though
individual elements will likely be moving with sufficient speed.

If sensitive areas get multiple rounds of rain though, some
isolated flooding could occur. Highs will be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

The trough, and eventually front, will sweep eastward Tuesday
night, and be near the bay Wednesday morning, with decreasing
precipitation chances through the night. A secondary front will
cross later Wednesday, with some showers and perhaps a few
storms developing along it. This front will quickly exit
Wednesday evening with dry weather ensuing and cooler, less
humid conditions (after temperatures spike up into the mid-upper
80s on Wednesday).

Long term Thursday through Sunday
High pressure will build into the region Thursday and Friday.

Northwest winds will gradually diminish and become northeasterly by
Friday afternoon. Plenty of sunshine expected through the period
with daytime high temperatures reaching near 80 Thursday, then lower
to middle 80s Friday.

Although we anticipate conditions to be dry for the most part on
Saturday, a weak shortwave approaching from the northwest could be
the deciding factor if any showers or thunderstorms develop across
the northern potomac highlands or along the mason-dixon region by
Saturday night. Highs Saturday in the middle 80s.

The shower and thunderstorm chance lingers Sunday into Monday as a
pre-frontal trough of low pressure develops on the leeside of the
potomac highlands and along the shenandoah valley. With increasing
warmth and humidity each day, any passing mid-level shortwave of
energy crossing over our CWA could spark a few showers or
thunderstorms. Highs Sunday into Monday in the middle to upper 80s
with higher humidity.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
MVFR clouds continue across the area this morning, with ifr at
mrb. Visibility is generally unaffected, though there does
appear to be some drizzle in the baltimore area, and moderate
showers and thunderstorms continue near cho which could bring
brief reductions. A period of ifr remains possible through the
morning, thinking the best chance will be at cho, mrb and iad.

Ceilings will continue to be an issue through the night. There
could be a break ofVFR during the afternoon and early evening,
but ifr will be possible again late tonight into early Tuesday.

Cho stands the best chance of seeing additional showers which
could reduce visibility, but timing them is problematic.

A warm front will lift northward Tuesday, followed by a cold
front Tuesday night. In between, ceilings will likely lift, but
showers and thunderstorms will become likely, some of which
could be strong with gusty winds. A secondary front will cross
on Wednesday and may produce some showers as it crosses.

Vfr conditions expected Thursday through Friday night. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 knots Thursday will become light and variable Thursday
night. Winds will become southeast around 5 knots Friday and
Friday night.

Marine
Building high pressure over new england is responsible for a
tightening gradient over the waters, with northeast to east
winds averaging 10-15 knots. This same direction is likely to
continue through tonight, with speeds perhaps decreasing a
touch. There is a low chance of a rogue thunderstorm near
southern maryland through the day.

A warm front will lift north Tuesday and flow will turn
southerly. Wind speeds through the day may be marginal for sca,
with the best chance occurring as a cold front approaches late.

Showers and thunderstorms will also become increasingly likely
during the afternoon and evening and could contain gusty winds.

A cold front will cross the area early Wednesday, and winds
don't look particularly strong behind it. However, a secondary
cold front will pass late in the day with potential for a few
showers and storms. In its wake, SCA conditions will be
possible.

No marine hazards Thursday through Friday night. Winds northwest
around 10 knots Thursday becoming light and variable Thursday night
and Friday. Winds veering to southeast 5 to 10 knots Friday
night.

Tides coastal flooding
Onshore flow will continue through early Tuesday, then turn
southerly as a warm front lifts north. The favored (higher
astronomical) tides Monday night and Tuesday night could
approach minor flood stage as anomalies increase. Best odds
appear to be Tuesday night as the southerly flow increases ahead
of an approaching cold front.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Ads
short term... Ads
long term... Klw
aviation... Ads klw
marine... Ads klw
tides coastal flooding... Ads


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 4 mi44 min 72°F 1017.4 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 6 mi38 min E 9.7 G 12 72°F 1018.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 8 mi68 min ENE 8.9 G 11 71°F 81°F1018.5 hPa (+0.0)68°F
CPVM2 9 mi38 min 71°F 69°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 16 mi98 min Calm 67°F 1017 hPa66°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 17 mi38 min NNE 8.9 G 11 70°F 1018 hPa
FSNM2 17 mi56 min NE 8 G 8.9 69°F 1017.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 21 mi38 min ENE 7 G 11 69°F 83°F1018 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 23 mi38 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 68°F 80°F1018.3 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 26 mi38 min NE 1.9 G 6 72°F 81°F1017.7 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 29 mi38 min ENE 12 G 14 74°F 1017.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 37 mi38 min 72°F 85°F1018.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 40 mi38 min NE 11 G 16 73°F 1017.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 45 mi44 min NE 8.9 G 12 73°F 83°F1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD4 mi74 minENE 510.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1018.3 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD12 mi73 minENE 410.00 miOvercast70°F66°F88%1017.6 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD14 mi74 minE 510.00 miOvercast68°F64°F88%1019 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD16 mi74 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast69°F66°F90%1017.9 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD20 mi72 minNE 410.00 miA Few Clouds69°F66°F91%1018.1 hPa
College Park Airport, MD20 mi74 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast69°F65°F90%1017.9 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD22 mi74 minno data mi70°F64°F84%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N7N9N8N5N5N4NE5N96N8NE8
G16
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1 day agoCalmW3CalmW4W4SW7--W9NW66W5NW4NW4NW3W3W4W33NW3NW3NW5N5N5N7
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSW434SE5S7S10
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S8S7NW4CalmNW3CalmNW3NW3S3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Gingerville Creek, South River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Gingerville Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:56 AM EDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:23 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:36 PM EDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:50 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.71.61.51.31.110.80.70.70.811.11.110.90.70.50.40.40.50.70.91.2

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:07 AM EDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:42 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:54 AM EDT     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:54 PM EDT     0.40 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:32 PM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.910.90.70.3-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.30.40.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.