Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shenandoah Farms, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 4:57PM Saturday November 17, 2018 5:37 AM EST (10:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:18PMMoonset 12:54AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 336 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Rest of the overnight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..Light winds. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 336 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build in from the ohio valley today before shifting offshore on Sunday. An area of low pressure and associated weak cold front will near the waters early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shenandoah Farms, VA
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location: 39.01, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 170912
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
412 am est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the ohio valley will build over the region
this weekend. The high will shift to the north and then migrate
offshore Sunday night. An area of low pressure will near the
ohio valley on Monday, lifting a warm front through the area.

Another area of low pressure will cross the great lakes Monday
night, dragging a cold front through the region on Tuesday. High
pressure will build back into the region the middle of next
week before another cold front crosses the region by Thursday.

Near term through tonight
Plentiful cloud cover this morning along and to the north and
west of the district. This is a result of ample low level
moisture being trapped underneath a subsidence inversion
measured around 850mb by the 00z iad upper air sounding. This
cloud cover acting as a blanket has kept temperatures in the
upper 30s to lower 40s, while to the south where skies are
clearer, upper 20s to lower 30s are more prevalent. Along and
west of the allegheny front, could still see some flurries
and or freezing drizzle early this morning as temperatures hover
in the lower 30s and better moisture availability given the
upslope flow. Further east, not seeing any reductions in
visibilities or hints of precipitation with dewpoints in the
upper 20s and temperatures in the upper 30s.

Clouds will decrease this morning as high pressure builds in
from the ohio valley and some drier air works its way into the
region. This will be shortlived as clouds will be on the
increase again tonight ahead of the next system nearing the ohio
valley and WAA commencing aloft. Highs today will range from
the middle 40s to lower 50s with overnight lows in the upper 20s
to middle 30s.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
A weak are of low pressure and associated frontal boundary will
approach the ohio valley on Sunday, residing just to our west.

This will aid in keeping a fair amount of cloud cover around on
Sunday with highs very similar to today. The latest guidance
keeps moisture at bay until late Sunday night, and we have kept
the highest precip chances along the allegheny front and near
the mason dixon line Sunday night, but remains in the chance
category. The colder locales could see some snowflakes mix in
with any rain showers, however moisture will remain very
limited. Lows Sunday night in the 30s to near 40 degrees in
cities.

The aforementioned area of low pressure will lift a warm
frontal boundary into our area on Monday, allowing temperatures
to warm to near seasonable levels, upper 40s to the north and
upper 50s to the south. This boundary will linger near the mason
dixon on Monday, with the best odds at rain showers remaining
west of the blue ridge. Better chances at precipitation further
east will exists Monday night as the broad area of low pressure
crosses the area. Moisture will again be limited and
temperatures aloft favor the liquid variety east of the blue
ridge, with a rain snow mix possible along and west of there.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
The long term is relatively quiet. Cold front will be pushing
southeast of the region on Tuesday, with upslope snow showers
along the alleghany front but little if any precip further east.

Cooler air behind the front will hold temps below normal.

High pressure will briefly build into the region Wednesday, with
dry conditions cwa-wide expected. Temps will remain below
normal.

Another cold front looks to cross the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. This front looks starved for moisture so
expecting little if any precip with it, even in the favorable
upslope regions. Temps will drop even further, with temps
struggling to reach the 40s.

High pressure from canada then builds directly overhead for
Friday. Dry weather with sunshine should allow temps to rebound
a bit, but remaining below normal.

Aviation 09z Saturday through Wednesday
MVFR CIGS will impact mrb early this morning with conditions
improving toVFR by mid morning.VFR conditions forecast for all
terminals today tonight as high pressure builds over the
terminal with light winds. Clouds will be on the increase again
tonight ahead of the next approaching system, but conditions
expected to remainVFR with the exception of the potential for
MVFR CIGS at mrb.VFR conditions Sunday and Monday at all
terminals with precipitation chances increasing Monday night as
a weak area of low pressure crosses the area.

Vfr are expected through the long term period. Main issues will
just be periods of gusty winds with passing cold fronts, which
look mostly dry at this point.

Marine
Sca conditions expected this morning along the main stem of the
bay and lower tidal potomac. With high pressure building into
the region through Sunday, winds will trend lighter and sub sca
beginning this afternoon. Gradient remains weak over the waters
Monday and Monday night as weak low pressure approaches from the
west.

Sca conditions will be possible Tuesday as a cold front departs
the region. Winds probably diminish Wednesday.

Climate
Here are the current rankings for wettest year on record
(through november 15th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.09 inches (1878)
4. 58.58 inches (2018)
5. 58.17 inches (1886)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 63.18 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
3. 62.35 inches (1889)
4. 58.98 inches (1979)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 59.17 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
4. 58.09 inches (1996)
5. 55.43 inches (1979)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
anz532-537-540.

Small craft advisory until noon est today for anz533-534-541-
543.

Synopsis... Bkf rcm
near term... Bkf
short term... Bkf
long term... Rcm
aviation... Bkf rcm
marine... Bkf rcm
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 54 mi38 min NW 4.1 G 8 42°F 47°F1022.7 hPa (+2.1)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 71 mi128 min NNW 5.1 42°F 1021 hPa32°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 78 mi38 min NNW 5.1 G 14 43°F 54°F1021.8 hPa (+2.1)

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Winchester Regional, VA12 mi63 minNW 1010.00 miOvercast37°F30°F75%1022.7 hPa
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA24 mi63 minNNW 13 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F33°F76%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from OKV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE3E4NE3NE3NE5NE4NE6N5N5N7N7N4N4N3NW6N4NW4NW7W6NW4NW7CalmNW4W11
2 days agoNW6NW8NW8NW9NW6NW9
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NW8W6CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE3CalmE3NE3E5E5E4E3

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:51 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:31 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:01 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:07 PM EST     2.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:24 PM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.422.42.62.62.31.81.20.70.40.30.40.91.62.22.52.72.52.11.50.90.60.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:51 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:26 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:56 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:02 PM EST     2.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:19 PM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.42.12.52.72.62.31.81.20.70.40.30.411.72.22.52.72.521.50.90.50.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.