Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shenandoah Farms, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:28PM Saturday May 25, 2019 6:57 AM EDT (10:57 UTC) Moonrise 12:27AMMoonset 10:48AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 435 Am Edt Sat May 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from noon edt today through this afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 435 Am Edt Sat May 25 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will shift offshore of the eastern united states through today. A weak cold front will approach the waters Sunday, lingering nearby through Monday. High pressure off the southeastern united states coast will then be in control in the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Sunday night into Monday and again on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shenandoah Farms, VA
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location: 39.01, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 250811
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
411 am edt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will move offshore today and tonight as a warm
front passes from southwest to northeast. A weak cold front will
approach from the north Sunday and linger Monday. Bermuda high
pressure sets up toward the middle portion of next week,
resulting in hot and humid conditions over much of the eastern
united states.

Near term through Sunday
Latest analysis shows the backdoor cold front has stalled over
southwestern virginia. Guidance indicates this front will start
to push back north across the shenandoah valley today, but will
not cross the dc baltimore metro area until early Sunday. This
means that temperatures will be warmer to the west this
afternoon, with mid 80s likely, while temperatures should remain
closer to 80 further east. Places along the bay shore may stay
in the 70s thanks to the easterly flow.

We will have more clouds around today as warm advection gets
underway, especially across eastern parts of the area. That
said, further west enough Sun should be able to significantly
destabilize the atmosphere, and expect showers and t-storms to
fire by midday or early afternoon in the mountains. These will
try to make their way eastward as the afternoon progresses, but
significantly lower instabaility in the metro area will likely
cause them to weaken as they do so. Thus, any severe threat
should remain west of the big cities.

Guidance suggests that some weakening storms forming well
northwest along a cold front this afternoon may try to reach the
region this evening, but these should also be suffering from a
stabilizing atmosphere.

After the warm front surges northward across the region early
Sunday, a warm, humid and much more unstable air mass should
envelop the entire region. There is some shear, not as much as
Friday, but a decent amount, and likely plenty of cape, so
another round of showers and t-storms looks likely, with a
better chance of severe weather reaching the i-95 corridor. Main
threat likely to be damaging winds, though hail or a tornado
can't be ruled out. Highs Sunday will be near 90.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
Cold front will slide back southward across the region Sunday
night into Monday morning, though it will be slower than the one
Thursday night, stalling out across our southern and western
zones. With the front stalling out, enough lingering moisture
and instability may cause a stray shower or t-storm, but
coverage should be lower than what we are expecting today out
west and Sunday across much of the area. Highs will be cooler
with the front in the vicinity and more cloud cover, with low-
mid 80s common again. Front tries to lift back north on Monday
night, which could touch off another round of showers or a
t-storm, so will need to keep an eye on this risk of nocturnal
convection, but right now odds don't look great.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Next week's weather will largely be driven by persistent
ridging off the southeastern us coastline, with warm southwest
flow and several chances for some showers thunderstorms.

A frontal boundary will likely be positioned somewhere near the
mid- atlantic states Tuesday, lifting northeastward. This will
lead to increased chances for showers storms during the day.

Temperatures will be quite warm, although extent of which will
be determined by frontal position. Will show a lot of 80s to
locally near 90f for now.

Heights will build Wednesday and the region will be completely
under control of warm southwest flow. This should lead to
Wednesday being the hottest day of the week, with highs likely
reaching into the 90s pretty much area-wide.

A frontal system will approach the region Thursday Thursday
night, leading to another increased chance of
showers thunderstorms. Temperatures still warm to hot out ahead
of the front, and will have highs around 90f in the forecast.

The front will push south eastward Friday as the upper ridge
over the southeastern us flattens, and high pressure builds
towards the region. This should lead to drier and somewhat
cooler weather with highs in the 80s.

Aviation 08z Saturday through Wednesday
GeneralyVFR through Monday night. Patchy low CIGS or mist could
reduce visibility and ceilings during the late night and early
morning hours, especially at the more rural terminals, but it
should not be of great concern. Most likely, biggest threat will
be in the form of t-storms during the afternoon and evening.

Today the risk will remain mostly west, but on Sunday, the
entire area could see t-storms. Risk declines on Monday, though
low clouds, if they develop, could linger longer.

PrimarilyVFR expected Tuesday and Wednesday, although some
reductions in lower clouds and showers storms are possible
Tuesday with frontal boundary near the area.VFR is then
expected by Wednesday.

Marine
Warm front lifting northward will result in southerly channeling
later today and tonight, with SCA conditions likely. Winds
diminsh on Sunday as high pressure regains control. Will need to
watch for SCA conditions Sunday night into Monday as another
front drops south. Special marine warnings for t-storms may be
necessary every day, but highest risk is likely Sunday and
Sunday night.

Sub-sca conditions likely Tuesday although some
showers thunderstorms are possible. Winds will then increase out
of the south Wednesday and SCA conditions become possible.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon today to 6 am edt Sunday for
anz532>534-537-539>543.

Small craft advisory from noon today to midnight edt tonight
for anz531-538.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 6 pm edt this evening
for anz530-535-536.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Mm
aviation... Mm rcm
marine... Mm rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 54 mi58 min ESE 1 G 6 68°F 71°F1022 hPa (+2.4)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 78 mi58 min SE 8.9 G 12 66°F 69°F1021.6 hPa (+1.8)

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Winchester Regional, VA12 mi83 minN 010.00 miOvercast63°F55°F77%1021.7 hPa
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA24 mi63 minN 010.00 miOvercast68°F59°F73%1022 hPa

Wind History from OKV (wind in knots)
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N8NW5NW4N3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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2 days agoCalmCalmE5SE4E4SE4E6SE7S3S5SE7SE6SE6SE5SE4S5S5S3S5S3S3S3CalmSW4

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:15 AM EDT     2.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:26 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:21 PM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:09 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.72.92.92.41.81.30.90.70.711.72.42.8332.62.11.510.70.50.71.1

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:10 AM EDT     2.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:21 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:16 PM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:04 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.832.82.41.81.20.80.70.71.11.82.42.9332.621.510.70.50.71.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.