Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Broadlands, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:24PM Friday May 24, 2019 10:49 PM EDT (02:49 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:49AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 1036 Pm Edt Fri May 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening...
Rest of tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt early in the evening. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1036 Pm Edt Fri May 24 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the region through tonight before shifting offshore Saturday and Saturday night. A weak cold front will approach the waters Sunday, lingering nearby through Monday. Bermuda high will impact the waters during the middle portion of next week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Monday night and Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Broadlands, VA
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location: 39.02, -77.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 250033
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
833 pm edt Fri may 24 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will move offshore Saturday and Saturday night as
a warm front passes from southwest to northeast. A weak cold
front will approach from the north and linger nearby Sunday and
Monday. Bermuda high pressure sets up toward the middle portion
of next week, resulting in hot and humid conditions over much of
the eastern united states.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
A weak quasi-stationary boundary remains to the southwest of
charlottesville- staunton, with little movement anticipated
overnight. Aloft, however, warm advection will commence, which
will allow for mid and upper- level clouds to thicken. Since
dewpoints will remain relatively low (in the 50s), conditions
will remain comfortable, but temperatures likely won't drop to
dewpoint levels.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night
High pressure will move offshore Saturday through Saturday night
and a return southerly flow will bring more warm and humid
conditions. The heat and humidity will lead to scattered showers
and thunderstorms, especially northwest of interstate 95, with
the best chance being near and west of the blue ridge during the
afternoon and evening hours. Higher instability along with a
pressure trough and moderate shear may be enough to cause an
isolated threat for severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and
evening, especially west of the blue ridge mountains where the
higher instability will be located.

For Saturday night through Sunday night, an upper-level high
will remain to our south with the polar jet remaining well to
our north. Therefore, a nearly zonal flow will setup over our
area during this time. High pressure will sprawled across the
southeastern CONUS into the atlantic, allowing for warm and
humid conditions. The heat and humidity will lead to an unstable
atmosphere, and with shortwave energy in the zonal flow aloft
this will bring the chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Timing these upper-level disturbances is difficult this far out,
so confidence in exact timing and location of storms is low. As
of now, it appears that the best chance for thunderstorms will
be Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across northern and
central areas. This is when most guidance shows stronger
shortwave energy passing through, and even a weak cold front
dropping into our area in response to a stronger system moving
through eastern canada. Some storms may be strong to locally
severe due to higher amounts of instability along with moderate
shear profiles, but confidence remains low.

Long term Monday through Friday
The large scale pattern remains fairly constant through much of
the upcoming week. A subtropical ridge will be positioned over
the southeastern conus, perhaps becoming flattened suppressed
by the end of the week. Lower heights will be located near
hudson bay and the intermountain west. That means the flow will
be more zonal locally and fronts will have trouble making much
southward progress.

For Monday, the front will be near or south of the area, with a
low chance of showers and storms and slightly cooler (but
still above normal. The front will lift back to the north
Tuesday into Tuesday night, so there could be a few showers and
storms. As low pressure moves northeast into canada Wednesday
and the bermuda high strengthens, we'll be solidly in the warm
sector and convection should be more suppressed. This will
likely be the hottest day of the week with temperatures likely
reaching the 90s in many areas.

The front will slide southeast Thursday into Friday in response
to a series of stronger shortwave troughs crossing canada.

This will bring another opportunity for showers and storms,
although the timing and coverage is rather uncertain at this
range, so pops in the forecast remain low. Temperatures will
trend down a bit, though remaining near seasonable normals.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions are expected most of the time through Sunday
night. Northwest winds will gust around 20 knots before
diminishing around sunset. Light winds are expected tonight
before turning southerly Saturday.

A couple showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday
afternoon and evening, especially across the western terminals.

More showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Sunday
night, but coverage should be isolated to scattered and much of
the time will be dry. Some storms may be strong to locally
severe, but confidence remains low.

There is a chance of sub-vfr clouds at times Monday into Tuesday
with a front near or south of the area. There will also be a
chance of showers or a few storms.VFR is likely by Wednesday
as high pressure builds.

Marine
With high pressure overhead, winds have diminished with sunset.

The small craft advisory for the waters was allowed to expire.

North winds should drop below 10 kt this evening and veer east
by dawn. Some guidance sets suggest winds may pick up again
toward dawn as marine flow become more established. At this
time, am not forecasting anything above 10-15 kt.

High pressure will move offshore Saturday and a southerly flow
will develop. An SCA is in effect for the waters Saturday into
Saturday night. A weak cold front may trigger a few showers and
thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night. Coverage should be
isolated to scattered and much of the time will turn out dry.

However, any storms that do develop may contain gusty winds.

Winds will be light and variable Monday and Tuesday with a front
stalled near the region. A few showers or thunderstorms are
possible, but wouldn't be strong based on current projections.

Southwest winds will develop by Wednesday as the front lifts
north.

Tides coastal flooding
A southerly flow will develop Saturday and anomalies will
increase. Minor tidal flooding is possible for sensitive areas
around high tide late Saturday and Saturday night, but
confidence is low since the flow will turn west of south
Saturday night.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon Saturday to 6 am edt Sunday for
anz531>534-537-539>541-543.

Small craft advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Saturday for anz530-
535-536-538-542.

Synopsis... Hts bjl
near term... Hts
short term... Bjl
long term... Ads
aviation... Bjl ads
marine... Bjl ads hts
tides coastal flooding... Bjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 28 mi38 min N 2.9 G 4.1 78°F 71°F1018.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 53 mi38 min N 5.1 G 8.9 76°F 71°F1018 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA5 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair72°F59°F65%1019.6 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA6 mi58 minNNE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F51°F45%1018.7 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA21 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair69°F59°F70%1020 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD21 mi54 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds67°F54°F63%1021.9 hPa

Wind History from JYO (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN3NW3CalmN3NE4N3N4CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmS3SE3S3S6SW6S7S3S8SE6SE6S6S5

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:25 AM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:38 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:28 PM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:27 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.732.92.51.91.30.90.60.60.91.62.32.93.23.12.82.21.61.10.70.50.50.91.7

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:20 AM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:33 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:23 PM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:22 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.732.92.51.91.30.90.60.60.91.62.42.93.23.12.72.21.61.10.70.50.511.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.