Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Broadlands, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 4:56PM Thursday November 15, 2018 5:03 AM EST (10:03 UTC) Moonrise 1:15PMMoonset 11:55PM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 339 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..NE winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain or snow or sleet. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain or snow or sleet. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 339 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure developing along the carolina coast today will strengthen into a gale, then move towards long island tonight. High pressure will build in from the ohio valley for the weekend. Gale warnings may be required Friday, and small craft advisories may be needed through early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Broadlands, VA
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location: 39.02, -77.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 150917
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
417 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure along the southeast coast this morning will move
north towards long island by tonight. High pressure will build
in from the ohio valley over the weekend. A cold front will
likely approach from the great lakes early next week.

Near term through tonight
Latest surface analysis depicts a double-barrelled low pressure
system. One center is over eastern tennessee and the other is
near the georgia coast. The low in tennessee is weakening while
the one along the coast is strengthening. To the north, high
pressure is centered over northern new york. Aloft, a closed low
is centered over the mid-mississippi valley, heading east-
northeast.

Today, the low over the georgia coast will rapidly strengthen as
it heads north-northeast along the coast, reaching the virginia
capes this evening and long island by late tonight. Strong warm
advection ahead of the system with plenty of moisture is
bringing the precip northward fairly fast, with most reports
indicating sleet at the onset thanks to a warm layer already
present aloft. However, as precipitation intensity increases
this morning, a battle between the warm advection and precip
intensity will allow some intervals of snow and rain mixed with
the sleet, with freezing rain where temperatures drop or already
below freezing. Cold air damming thanks to the high to our north
will help keep regions west of the blue ridge below freezing all
day, with these areas also holding the colder air aloft longer.

Thus, winter storm warnings remain in effect for these regions
with the highest accumulations of snow and ice expected. East of
the blue ridge, snow and ice accumulations will be considerably
lower, but the possibility of a burst of snow or sleet producing
accumulations up to an inch exists all the way to the i-95
corridor, with better odds further northwest. As the low gets
closer later today, the warm air aloft will gradually win out,
with mainly ice or rain expected later in the day. Surface
warming is also expected, but at a slower pace, so the i-95
corridor should change to plain rain earliest, but closer to the
blue ridge the change may be delayed til evening, and west of
the blue ridge it may never happen. Where precip does become all
rain, heavier rain is possible with precip amounts of 1-2 inches
likely, so given much diminished vegetation and already
saturated conditions, a flood watch has been issued.

The whole system rapidly pushes northeast and precip starts
tapering off this evening. Some wraparound moisture may bring a
last burst of rain overnight, which could even change back to
snow as temperatures aloft cool while the surface low heads
northeast of us and winds shift to the northwest. However, do
not anticipated significant accumulations with this band near
i-95.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Low pressure pushes quickly northeast away from us on Friday,
with weak high pressure dominating late Friday through Saturday
night. Drying and warming will the the predominate theme, with
highs rebounding back towards 50 and lows near freezing. Some
high elevation freezing drizzle can't be ruled out Friday night
thanks to a bit of low level moisture being lifted on the
ridges, but otherwise, do not expect any significant precip.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
On Sunday, a vigorous piece of upper level shortwave energy
will be moving across the area, bringing cloudier conditions on
Sunday. This system could also bring some showers, primarily
west of the blue ridge due to upslope flow. With temperatures
dipping into the low 30s Sunday night into early Monday morning,
some snow showers could mix in as well, again in the higher
elevations west of the blue ridge. High temperatures on Sunday
will remain below average, only reaching the mid to upper 40s.

Showers could linger into Monday, west of the blue ridge in
areas prone to northwest flow. Temperatures will be slightly
warmer on Monday, but still below average.

On Tuesday, expecting high pressure to return to the region,
bringing dry weather to the entire region. This will be a very
cold high pressure though, with continued below average
temperatures across the entire area. Highs will be in the low to
mid 40s.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
Mixed precipitation moving in from the southwest this morning
will dominate much to the day. While at any one time, precip may
be dominated by one type or another, all three types look
likely this morning, transitioning away from snow and towards
rain as we head later in the day, though inland, especially at
mrb, fzra will likely dominate over ra. CIGS will be ifr with
periods of ifr vis, and winds will be gusty from the northeast
before transitioning to northwest later tonight. Precip should
end by late tonight withVFR dominating Friday through Saturday
night.

Vfr conditions are expected across all terminals in the long
term period.

Marine
Gusty NE winds between strong high pressure to the north and
developing coastal low moving up the east coast from the
carolinas is expected to result in gale conditions over the
lower tidal potomac river and middle chesapeake bay through
tonight, with SCA conditions elsewhere. Gales may need to be
extended into Friday morning, with solid SCA on NW flow behind
departing low expected all day before diminishing in the
evening.

Lighter winds expected Saturday as high pressure builds
overhead from the ohio valley.

Light winds expected on Sunday through Monday morning. Some
stronger wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon, but not
expected to reach SCA criteria at this time.

Hydrology
Very strong vertical motion coupled with anomalously high
moisture advection and some conditional instability is expected
to result in a widespread moderately heavy soaking rain in the
i-95 corridor tonight into this evening, where FFG is about 1.5
inches in 6 hours. Given 1.5.-2+ inches forecast, have opted to
go with a flood watch, especially since many area creeks and
streams are already running high going into this event.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal anomalies will continue to increase today in onshore ne
flow, with perhaps near minor flooding possible during this
evening's tide cycle. NW winds will cause levels to lower Friday
into the weekend.

Climate
Here are the current rankings for wettest year on record
(through november 13th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.09 inches (1878)
4. 58.17 inches (1886)
5. 57.54 inches (1948)
6. 57.38 inches (2018)
7. 54.29 inches (1937)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 62.66 inches (2003)
2. 62.35 inches (1889)
3. 61.68 inches (2018)
4. 58.98 inches (1979)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 59.05 inches (1972)
3. 58.09 inches (1996)
4. 57.65 inches (2018)
5. 55.43 inches (1979)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
dcz001.

Flood watch from noon est today through this evening for
dcz001.

Md... Winter storm warning until 4 am est Friday for mdz003-501-502.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
mdz013-014-504.

Winter weather advisory from 7 am this morning to 4 pm est
this afternoon for mdz004>006-011-505>508.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
mdz503.

Flood watch from noon est today through this evening for
mdz011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508.

Va... Winter storm warning until 1 am est Friday for vaz025-503-504-
508.

Winter storm warning until 4 am est Friday for vaz026>031-507.

Winter weather advisory until noon est today for vaz036>038-
050-056.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
vaz039-051>055-502.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
vaz040-501-505-506.

Flood watch from noon est today through this evening for
vaz052>057.

Wv... Winter storm warning until 4 am est Friday for wvz050>053-055-
501>506.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
anz532>534-537-540>543.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Friday for
anz532>534-537-540>543.

Gale warning until 6 am est Friday for anz532>534-537-540>543.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Friday for anz530-531-535-
536-538-539.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Cjl
aviation... Rcm cjl
marine... Dfh cjl
hydrology... Dfh
tides coastal flooding... Dfh
climate... Dfh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 28 mi33 min NE 1.9 G 4.1 38°F 49°F1033.2 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 46 mi93 min ENE 2.9 37°F 1033 hPa22°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 53 mi33 min E 8.9 G 11 36°F 53°F1033.4 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Leesburg / Godfrey, VA5 mi68 minENE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F24°F65%1033.2 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA6 mi71 minE 610.00 miOvercast36°F21°F55%1033.1 hPa
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD21 mi67 minENE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy34°F21°F59%1036.4 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA21 mi67 minE 710.00 miOvercast37°F21°F54%1034 hPa

Wind History from JYO (wind in knots)
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NW7N5CalmCalmN3NE4NE5NE5NE4NE4E5NE4E5E8
1 day agoN9N7NW6NW6NW10NW13N10
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NW9NW4NW6N11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S9S8SW5SW5S6S3S6SW6CalmCalmCalmN4CalmN4
G14
N7N8N8

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:37 AM EST     2.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:26 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:21 PM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:25 PM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:53 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.72.72.521.40.90.60.40.40.81.422.42.62.52.11.610.60.40.40.71.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:32 AM EST     2.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:21 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:16 PM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:20 PM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:53 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.72.72.51.91.40.90.50.40.40.81.522.42.62.52.11.510.60.40.40.71.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.