Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Arnold, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:45PM Thursday December 13, 2018 6:03 PM EST (23:03 UTC) Moonrise 11:43AMMoonset 10:36PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 346 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Rest of this afternoon..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tonight..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Rain likely.
Fri night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 346 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over new england will slide off the coast tonight. Low pressure near the arklatex region will travel through the tennessee valley on Friday, nearing the waters Friday night into Saturday, bringing unsettled weather. Conditions will remain unsettled into Sunday before high pressure builds over the waters early next week. Small craft advisory conditions likely for portions of the waters Friday night through Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arnold, MD
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location: 39.03, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 131958
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
258 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis High pressure will linger over the region through tonight.

A large area of low pressure will impact the area at the end of
the week through this weekend bringing widespread rain and
potential for flooding. High pressure will return early next
week.

Near term through tonight
Mid-high level clouds will continue to thicken tonight and fill
in where skies are still clear at this time. Lows will be
generally in the low to mid 30s. Some guidance is indicating
potential for low clouds stratus form over northeast md
overnight, but not quite sure of this.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Cutoff low over wcntrl tx this afternoon will move ewd next 24
hrs and then begin to lift northeast toward the mid-atlc states
sat. Southwest flow aloft and southeast sfc flow will draw gulf
and atlc moisture nwd into the area Fri night into Sat with
pwats expected to climb in the 1-1.5 inch range. Rain is
expected to arrive in the southwest part of the CWA by 18z fri
and spread quickly northeast during the afternoon.

Rain... Possibly heavy at times... Is expected Fri night into the
first half of Sat as developing coastal low pressure lifts
northeast along the mid-atlantic coast. Widespread rainfall
amts of an inch or more are expected with the potential for as
much as 2.5-3 inches especially east of the blue ridge and
along the i-95 corridor. This amount of rainfall may cause
flooding of small streams and creeks and in urban areas due to
snowmelt and unreceptive soils from all the rain during the past
several weeks. The period of heaviest rainfall is expected to
be Fri night. For this reason, a flood watch has been issued for
almost the entire fcst area. Steady moderate rain is likely to
end by midday Sat with precip becoming more showery in the
afternoon.

Even as steady rain ends sat, weather will remain unsettled
through the entire weekend as cutoff low pressure moves south of
the area and destabilizes atmosphere aloft. Anticipate
occasional showers or even perhaps a thunderstorm especially on
Sunday. Any additional rainfall Sat night and Sun should be
on the light side and not cause any new or additional flooding.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
After a wet weekend, a period of dry, but chilly, weather looks to
set up through the middle of the week.

On Sunday, the cutoff upper low will move over, or just south of the
region. There is still a little bit of uncertainty of where the
upper low tracks, but it seems to be more likely that rain continues
into Sunday. Likely pops continue into Sunday evening as a result.

With the upper low passing by so close by, temperatures will remain
in the 40s.

High pressure will build in from the west Sunday night into early
next week. An arctic cold front will sweep through on Monday.

Temperatures will moderate on Monday ahead of the front,
possibly reaching the upper 40s to low 50s, which is right
around normal for mid-december.

High pressure builds in from the west through mid-week, brining a
period of dry weather to the region. Temperatures on Tuesday will
be in the low 40s. As high pressure passes over the region and
offshore by Thursday, temperatures will gradually moderate
throughout the week. Wednesday or Thursday could be slightly above
average for this time of year.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
Cloudy tonight with ifr CIGS developing Fri night into Sat in
moderate to heavy rain. Unsettled wx will persist through the
weekend with MVFR CIGS likely.

Sub-vfr CIGS and vis likely linger at times Sunday as low pressure
meanders across the region, resulting in low clouds and rain
showers. Conditions will improve back toVFR by Monday as the system
moves out.

Marine
Light winds through Fri increasing Fri night with potential for
sca in the southern waters as pres gradient tightens. Then,
light winds again Sat through the weekend as sfc low passes
nearby.

Low pressure in the vicinity Sunday will result in a risk of
continued gusty winds and small craft advisory conditions, though
this will ebb at times as the pressure gradient changes while the
low passes. After potentially relaxing Sunday night, winds likely
pick up again later on Monday as a cold front crosses the region.

Latest GFS indicates gale potential with this front, but ec is a bit
weaker, so another round of SCA conditions are the best bet right
now.

Climate
Rainfall totals continue to creep upward, with baltimore
setting the annual record already. Here are the current rankings
for wettest year on record (through december 12th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.78 inches (2018)
4. 60.09 inches (1878)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 65.67 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 61.30 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Flood watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for
dcz001.

Md... Flood watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for
mdz003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.

Va... Flood watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for
vaz025>031-036>040-050>057-501-502-505>508.

Wv... Flood watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for
wvz050>053-055.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Lfr
short term... Lfr
long term... Cjl
aviation... Lfr cjl
marine... Lfr cjl
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 4 mi33 min 43°F 1027.3 hPa
CPVM2 8 mi33 min 42°F 40°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 10 mi63 min ESE 5.1 G 5.1 44°F 42°F1028.3 hPa (+1.2)36°F
FSNM2 13 mi39 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 46°F 1027.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 13 mi33 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 45°F 1027.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 17 mi39 min E 2.9 G 2.9 46°F 44°F1027.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi33 min Calm G 1.9 41°F 41°F1028.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 20 mi93 min ESE 1.9 47°F 1027 hPa35°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 28 mi33 min SE 1 G 2.9 48°F 40°F1027.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 40 mi39 min 46°F 40°F1027.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 44 mi33 min S 5.1 G 5.1 43°F 1028.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 49 mi33 min ENE 2.9 G 2.9 45°F 42°F1027.1 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD4 mi69 minE 410.00 miOvercast46°F37°F71%1027.8 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD11 mi83 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F37°F81%1027.8 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD13 mi81 minE 510.00 miFair43°F32°F66%1028.1 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD13 mi69 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F34°F68%1027.5 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD18 mi69 minno data mi46°F33°F61%1027.8 hPa
College Park Airport, MD21 mi81 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F31°F56%1027.1 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD22 mi78 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F35°F71%1028.1 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD23 mi67 minE 410.00 miOvercast46°F33°F61%1027.6 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S8S7S6S5SE7SE8SE8SE8SE8S8S4S4S5S7S3SE8SE10SE8SE6SE5S4E4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmW5NW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmN3NW6NW6N6NW6CalmSE6S5S6S5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3NW4NW3N5NW5NW3NW4N4NW3CalmNW3CalmN3N5NW5NW7NW53W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Brewer Point, Maryland
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Brewer Point
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Thu -- 04:26 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:36 AM EST     0.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:20 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:58 PM EST     0.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:36 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.30.20.10.10.20.30.40.50.50.40.30.20.1000.10.30.50.60.80.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:24 AM EST     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:56 AM EST     0.60 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:09 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:40 PM EST     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:09 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:33 PM EST     0.67 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:35 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.4-00.30.50.60.50.30-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-00.20.50.60.70.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.