Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Centreville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 7:52PM Sunday August 20, 2017 11:16 AM EDT (15:16 UTC) Moonrise 3:58AMMoonset 6:15PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 1032 Am Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Rest of today..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Am Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore through tonight. A cold front will cross the waters late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High pressure will return for the second half of the week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Monday night through Wednesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Centreville, MD
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location: 39.05, -76.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 201323
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
923 am edt Sun aug 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build in from the ohio valley today and then move
offshore on Monday. A cold front will approach from the midwest on
Tuesday while high pressure remains anchored off the eastern
seaboard. The front is expected to move through the area on
Wednesday. Canadian high pressure builds into the region late in the
week and into next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Only minor updates needed to reflect current temperature and dew
point trends, but otherwise the forecast remains on track.

The axis of the upper trough will move to the east of the area this
morning with flow aloft becomes more zonal behind the passing
trough. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will start to build in from
the west.

Some drier air will be across the region today and with little to no
moisture around, we should see plenty of sunshine and no rain. The
dry air will be slightly cooler than what was in place the past few
days but maximum temperatures will only be about 2-3 degrees cooler
than they were on Saturday. Expect highs to rise into the mid to
upper 80s across the forecast area with some upper 70s to lower 80s
across the southern poconos and northwest new jersey. With drier air
in place, it will feel much more comfortable outside.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
The center of the high pressure will cross overhead tonight and then
push offshore early Monday. Flow across the region will be light and
skies should be relatively clear overnight. Cloud cover will start
to increase toward daybreak, mainly across delmarva, as return flow
around the high starts to bring some moisture back into the area.

Temperatures will respond to the relatively clear skies and light
winds overnight and we should radiate pretty well. Lows will drop
down into the low to mid 60s across much of the region with some
upper 50s across the higher elevations. Temperatures in
philadelphia, nearby suburbs, and along the coast will be slightly
warmer and in the mid to upper 60s.

Even with moisture starting to increase, do not see much in the way
of fog development overnight although a few patchy spots may
develop, mainly toward daybreak.

Long term Monday through Saturday
High pressure moves offshore on Monday. Southerly return flow around
the high develops across the mid-atlantic region. Meanwhile, a weak
shortwave disturbance embedded in an belt of stronger westerlies
residing to the north of the upper ridge is expected to approach
from the ohio valley during the afternoon and then pass through the
area Monday night. A few showers and storms could develop on Monday,
especially west of the delaware valley (delmarva-reading-lehigh
valley) late in the afternoon and evening when forecast soundings
show instability increasing in concert with the arrival of deeper
moisture from the southwest. Kept coverage isolated for the
afternoon hours with the greater lift from the shortwave trough
still to our west. Slightly higher coverage of showers and storms
may arrive in our far western zones during the evening.

Solar eclipse viewing Monday afternoon... It is important to note
the wide range of model solutions for cloud cover across the most of
the area, basically ranging from clear skies (with a minimal cumulus
deck and thin cirrus clouds) to cloudy skies. In general, rh fields
in the 850 mb layer (closely represents the ceiling height of the
cumulus field at the top of the mixed layer) for Monday afternoon
have trended higher with the most recent 00z models compared to 24
hours before. This trend seems loosely tied to models showing an
earlier exit of the high and a more pronounced warm-air moisture
advection pattern on the western side of the high. Unfortunately,
this means we increased cloud cover with the latest forecast update-
to partly sunny roughly south west of philadelphia and to mostly
sunny farther north east. While confidence in the official
(deterministic) sky cover percentages (seen in the ndfd graphics on
our website) is are not not particularly high, (in a probabilistic
framework) the likelihood of a having a decent view of the eclipse
increases the farther north and east you go.

Low pressure is expected to track from the great lakes into
southeastern canada on Tuesday. A cold front extending southward
from the low will move through the midwest states during this time.

The focus for showers and storms on Tuesday will be along a pre-
frontal trough to the lee of the appalachians. Accordingly, the
highest pops reside across our far western zones in eastern pa and
far northwestern nj. Tuesday is still expected to be the hottest day
of the period with highs generally in the lower 90s.

Showers and storms across northwestern zones may continue into the
overnight and progress farther south east across the forecast area
later Tuesday night as the cold front approaches. The highest pops
Tuesday night once again reside across the northwestern zones. While
showers and storms are forecast with the front moving through on
Wednesday, a morning-early afternoon timing of the FROPA may prevent
us from realizing our full convective potential (in terms of
thunderstorm coverage and severity) than if it coincided more
favorably with peak heating later in the day.

Showers and storms will end from northwest to southeast late in the
day Wednesday into Wednesday night as the front moves through the
area.

Canadian high pressure gradually builds into the area late in the
week. Dry conditions and below normal temperatures can be expected
Thursday through Friday with high pressure firmly in control of our
weather pattern. Highs will be in 70s and lower 80s each day with
lows in the 50s and 60s.

Aviation 13z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr conditions are expected at the terminals through the taf
period.

Relatively clear skies will be across the region
today, with just some cirrus around as high pressure moves into
the area. Mainly clear skies will continue through tonight. Fog
may develop in a few locations overnight tonight but confidence
is low and it has been left out of the tafs at this time.

Light winds this morning will become west to northwest by mid
morning at around 10 knots or less through this afternoon. A few
gusts around 15 knots are possible this afternoon. Winds will
subside again and become slightly more southwest this evening
before becoming light and variable overnight.

Outlook...

Monday... PredominatelyVFR. Isolated showers and storms could
develop late in the day and at night, mainly south and west of
phila terminals.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers and
storms in the afternoon, especially across western terminals
(rdg and abe). Showers and storms could move into i-95 terminals
Tuesday night with a cold front approaching from the nw.

Wednesday... Showers likely with a chance of storms. Localized
sub-vfr restrictions a possibility with this activity. Improving
toVFR with showers ending from NW to SE late in the afternoon
and evening. Expect a wind shift from SW to NW to occur in wake
of fropa.

Thursday...VFR and light winds.

Marine
Tranquil conditions will continue across the area waters through
tonight. Seas will be around 1 to 2 feet. West to northwest winds
around 10 to 15 knots will start to turn more to the south southwest
this afternoon and evening. A few gusts around 20 knots are possible
through tonight.

Outlook...

Monday... Winds and seas below SCA thresholds.

Tuesday... SCA possible late afternoon and night with S winds
increasing to near 25 kt ahead of cold front. Building seas to
4-6 ft are forecast for the atlantic coastal waters.

Wednesday... Winds should decrease to below 25 kt but sca
conditions may continue into the morning as it may take longer
for seas in the coastal waters to drop below 5 ft.

Thursday... No marine hazards expected.

Rip currents
Winds will be northwest through this morning before turning to the
southwest this afternoon. The overall risk for today looks to be low
at both the delaware beaches and the new jersey shore but with
a more southwesterly flow developing a few of the more prone
locations, like lbi, may see a slightly increased risk through
this evening.

Tides coastal flooding
We will be watching the tidal departures closely for the Monday
evening high tide, as winds will once again shift to more southerly,
and astronomical tides should be relatively high thanks to the new
moon on Monday. At this point minor flooding is possible, though
some guidance continues to show water levels falling short of minor
flooding thresholds.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Klein
near term... Meola di spigna
short term... Meola
long term... Klein
aviation... Klein meola
marine... Klein meola
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 15 mi46 min NNE 8 G 9.9 74°F 80°F1020.4 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi46 min 76°F 60°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 18 mi36 min N 5.8 G 9.7 75°F 1020.6 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 21 mi36 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 22 mi46 min 77°F 1019.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi76 min N 8.9 G 11 75°F 80°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 27 mi46 min N 8 G 9.9 76°F 1019.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 31 mi46 min N 4.1 G 7 76°F 82°F1019.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 33 mi46 min 79°F 83°F1020.7 hPa
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 34 mi36 min NW 1.9 G 3.9 74°F 1019.9 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi106 min NNW 4.1 74°F 1019 hPa64°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 36 mi46 min NW 5.1 G 8.9 74°F 82°F1020.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi106 min N 1.9 69°F 1020 hPa62°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 39 mi36 min NE 9.7 G 14 77°F 1020.7 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 41 mi46 min NW 8.9 G 11 73°F 80°F1019.2 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 44 mi46 min 75°F 81°F1019.3 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 45 mi46 min WNW 5.1 G 7 74°F 77°F1019.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi46 min N 7 G 11 76°F 1020.6 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD15 mi31 minN 610.00 miFair77°F60°F57%1020.3 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD22 mi82 minN 510.00 miFair79°F64°F62%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5CalmCalmW5SW4SW3S5S5S5S3SW4SW4N4SW3CalmCalmCalmNW3N6N6N6N7N8N8
1 day agoSW8SW7S8S11S10
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CalmS7S7S6S5CalmW4SW5W5NW8NW8NW9NW8NW6NW6
2 days agoS7S6S9S8S6S5S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Centreville Landing, Corsica River, Chester River, Maryland
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Centreville Landing
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:21 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:23 PM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.71.21.82.42.8332.72.31.81.30.90.70.811.51.92.12.11.81.41.10.7

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:42 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:18 AM EDT     1.16 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:44 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:57 AM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:04 PM EDT     0.68 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:50 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:52 PM EDT     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.30.10.611.21.10.80.4-0.1-0.6-0.9-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.20.20.60.70.60.3-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.