Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Centreville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday May 25, 2017 12:55 AM EDT (04:55 UTC) Moonrise 4:52AMMoonset 7:12PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 1031 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am edt Thursday...
Rest of tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. A slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt... Becoming S in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1031 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will pass through the waters late tonight into Thursday. The cold front associated with this low will move through the area Thursday night. High pressure will build overhead Friday through Friday night before moving off the mid-atlantic coast Saturday. A warm front will stall out near the waters later Saturday and Sunday before a stronger cold front possibly moves through on Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Friday through Friday evening.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Centreville, MD
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location: 39.05, -76.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 250424
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1224 am edt Thu may 25 2017

Synopsis
As an area of low pressure moves into the ohio valley tonight
into Thursday, an occluded front and warm front will lift toward
our region. A triple point low will develop and take over as
the dominant low as it moves across our area Thursday night.

This low will move away from the area Friday, with a weak
frontal boundary or surface trough crossing the area during the
day. Weak high pressure may briefly move across the area Friday
night into early Saturday. A weak low may move along a
developing warm front to our south Saturday into Saturday night.

An occluded frontal system is expected to affect the area
Sunday into Monday, followed by another frontal boundary on
Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
We have made some adjustments to the timing of the initial band
of rain associated with the approaching warm front. The leading
edge of the rain was into eastern maryland and southern
delaware around midnight. It should reach a reading-
philadelphia-atlantic city line around 2:00 am and it is
expected to arrive in the poconos and far northern new jersey
around 4:00 am.

The rain is forecast to become moderate and locally heavy at
times. We are anticipating maybe about 0.40 to 0.70 inches
through 8:00 am in much of southeastern pennsylvania, southern
new jersey, delaware and northeastern maryland. Amounts in the
lehigh valley, the poconos, and central and northern new jersey
should range from around 0.10 to 0.40 inches.

The wind is forecast to remain out of the east around 8 to 14
mph. The wind direction may begin to veer toward the southeast
in parts of northeastern maryland and delaware around daybreak
with the arrival of the warm front.

The onshore flow is anticipated to keep temperatures mainly in
the 50s for the balance of the night.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 am Friday
Low pressure is expected to slowly lift northward through the
midwest ohio valley on Thursday. Meanwhile, its attendant warm
front will also move northward through the DELMARVA region
before stalling in eastern pa-nj (likely near the philadelphia
metro). Models are indicating the development of a secondary low
during the afternoon on the lee side of the blue ridge
mountains. This low would then approach the forecast area late
in the afternoon.

Pops are highest initially in the morning hours when the
southeasterly low-level jet interacts with the approaching warm
front. This band of steady precip will eventually lift north of
the region late in the morning. Coverage of showers will
generally be more widely scattered during the afternoon.

Breaks in the cloud cover will promote strong heating south of
the warm front across DELMARVA and perhaps southeastern
pa southern nj. The environment will be conducive for
thunderstorms south of the warm front later in the afternoon as
the boundary-layer destabilizes and strong lift arrives ahead of
the negatively-tilted trough. A few storms in these southern
zones could potentially become severe with damaging winds being
the primary threats. These storms will also pose a risk for
localized heavy rainfall that could lead to urban poor drainage
flooding.

Long term Friday through Thursday
An unsettled weather pattern continues for much of the extended
forecast with several periods of rain possible.

By Thursday night, the triple point low will begin moving
across the area, pulling an occluded frontal system across the
area as well. Showers will likely be ongoing during the evening
and continue into the overnight hours. By Friday morning, the
low will continue to move to our northeast and offshore of new
england, and showers associated with the low will move to our
northeast as well. However, a weak frontal boundary or surface
trough is forecast to move across the area during the day. With
help from the trough aloft and any short wave vorticity
impulses, there will be another chance of scattered showers
during the afternoon.

Friday night through most of Saturday is expected to be dry as
weak high pressure quickly moves across the area. However, a
warm front is expected to develop to the south of the area,
while a weak area of low pressure moves along this boundary
during the day. Also, a short wave vorticity impulse may move
across the area during the day, so there will be a chance of an
isolated shower during the day Saturday.

On Saturday night, the warm front to the south will begin
lifting northward, but not likely make its way into the area
until Sunday. A triple point may form near the area by Sunday
night as well, which could slow the progression of the frontal
system as it begins to occlude. The exact timing of these
features is still a little uncertain, but Sunday into Sunday
night look to have the best chance of showers, and possible
thunderstorms if enough instability builds on Sunday.

The actual cold front is forecast to move across the area
Monday, with another cold front possible on Tuesday. This could
lead to additional showers or thunderstorms, especially during
the day Monday and Tuesday.

Aviation 04z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Cigs will continue to lower overnight. Rain is expected to
arrive from S to N between 05z and 08z. Expect ifr conditions
shortly after the rain arrives with CIGS dropping below 1 kft.

The steadier rain ends from S to N between approximately 11z
and 14z Thursday morning. However, CIGS may lower to lifr during
the morning hours with the probability of an extended period of
lifr higher for northern terminals (ttn-abe-rdg). Farther
south, CIGS will try to slowly improve as a warm front lift
northward.

E-se winds this afternoon around 10 kt with occasional gusts
15-20 kt thru sunset. Winds look to become more easterly tonight
with speeds increasing to 10-15 kt and gusts 20-25 kt late
tonight and early Thursday morning. A wind shift out of the s-se
is possible during the afternoon from about phl southward
assuming a warm front makes it this far north.

Outlook...

Thursday night... MVFR to ifr conditions possible with low
clouds and fog drizzle possible.

Friday-Friday night... Improving toVFR during the day and into
the night, scattered showers possible during the daytime. Gusty
northwest winds 20-25 knots.

Saturday... GenerallyVFR. Showers moving into the area later in
the day, which will lead to lowering ceilings.

Saturday night-vfr conditions early, possibly lowering
overnight.

Sunday-Sunday night... MVFR to ifr conditions possible with
periods of low clouds and rain. Thunderstorms possible Sunday.

Monday... Generally improving toVFR during the morning.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible during the day.

Marine
Sca in effect for the coastal waters for tonight and Thursday.

Although e-ne winds are generally 10-20 kt this afternoon, seas
have been building to around 5 ft at our offshore buoys. Winds
may reach SCA criteria of 25 kt early Thursday morning when the
pressure gradient increases ahead of a warm front. Seas will
remain in the 5-6 ft range through the day on Thursday.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
ocean beaches on Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night... Small craft advisory in effect.

Friday... Winds may drop below advisory levels, but seas may
remain above 5 feet into Friday.

Friday night-Monday... Conditions expected to remain below
advisory levels, although winds may gust around 20 knots at
times.

Tides coastal flooding
Some of the highest astronomical tides of the year are occuring
through the end of the week. As a result of that and onshore
flow, minor coastal flooding is expected with the high tide
again on Thursday evening. One source of guidance shows water
levels along the northern nj shore approaching moderate flooding
thresholds with the Thursday evening high tide, but this seems
uncertain at this time. Minor coastal flooding may again be
possible with the Friday evening high tide.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... Coastal flood advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Friday for njz012>014-020>027.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt early this morning for
njz016.

De... Coastal flood advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Friday for dez002>004.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt early this morning for
dez001.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Robertson
near term... Iovino
short term... Klein
long term... Robertson
aviation... Klein robertson mps
marine... Klein robertson mps
tides coastal flooding... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 15 mi38 min E 7 G 15 58°F 65°F1006.2 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi38 min 58°F 57°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 18 mi26 min ESE 18 G 21 59°F 1006.4 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 21 mi26 min E 14 G 18 58°F 1005.3 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 22 mi38 min 59°F 1005.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi56 min ESE 14 G 16 58°F 64°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 27 mi38 min ESE 13 G 15 59°F 1006.3 hPa
FSNM2 27 mi38 min ESE 14 G 19 58°F 1006.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 31 mi38 min SSE 11 G 17 59°F 68°F1006.1 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 33 mi44 min 58°F 67°F
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 34 mi26 min E 18 G 21 60°F 1006.1 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi101 min ESE 5.1 58°F 1008 hPa56°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 36 mi44 min ENE 6 G 12 59°F 67°F1007 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 39 mi26 min ESE 19 G 21 59°F 1005.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi146 min E 5.1 58°F 1006 hPa53°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 41 mi38 min E 18 G 21 58°F 64°F1006.5 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 44 mi38 min 59°F 66°F1006.7 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 45 mi38 min E 11 G 14 59°F 65°F1007.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi38 min ESE 13 G 16 57°F 1005.3 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD15 mi66 minESE 910.00 miLight Rain57°F55°F94%1006.1 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD17 mi54 minESE 7 G 1410.00 miOvercast58°F53°F85%1007.4 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD22 mi62 minno data8.00 miLight Rain60°F57°F93%1006.4 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3NE4NE5NE3CalmN3N3NE3E7NE5NE5E5CalmCalmSE5SE7SE12
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1 day agoN3CalmCalmNW5CalmN3N3NE5E6NE3E8NE3E6SE6SE4SE8SE7SE6E3SE5E5E4E7E7
2 days agoE4E3NE3NE4E5E5E4E3CalmCalmE3SE4SW3CalmCalmN3E3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Centreville Landing, Corsica River, Chester River, Maryland
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Centreville Landing
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:18 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:56 AM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:13 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.30.61.21.92.533.12.92.521.510.60.50.50.81.31.71.91.81.51.10.7

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:31 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:12 AM EDT     1.29 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:41 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:56 AM EDT     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:00 PM EDT     0.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:33 PM EDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-0.20.20.71.11.31.20.90.4-0.2-0.7-1-1.2-1-0.7-0.30.20.50.60.50.2-0.2-0.5-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.