Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Centreville, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 6:21PM Friday October 19, 2018 9:24 AM EDT (13:24 UTC) Moonrise 3:09PMMoonset 1:04AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 736 Am Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through Saturday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..W winds 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt...increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Waves 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
ANZ500 736 Am Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore today. A cold front will cross the waters Saturday with high pressure returning the second half of the weekend and persisting into early next week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for portions of the waters Saturday night through Sunday. Gale conditions are likely late Saturday night into early Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Centreville, MD
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location: 39.05, -76.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 190733
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
333 am edt Fri oct 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build off shore today. The next cold front is
expected to arrive in our region Saturday. High pressure will then
build in from the west on Sunday and Monday. A second cold front is
forecast to arrive on Tuesday, followed again by high pressure on
Wednesday and Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure will move offshore today so a
continuation of fair weather is expected. Skies will be sunny and
after a cold start, temperatures will climb into the upper 50s low
60s in most areas. These readings will be a few degrees below normal
for mid-october. Winds will be light this morning and then SW around
10 mph this afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
Low pressure will be moving across southern canada and
therefore moisture will advect across the area tonight. Increasing
clouds and higher chc for showers will be the result. Pops are in
the high chc low likely range for this period. Total rainfall around
a tenth of an inch will be common for our area. It will milder
tonight with lows in the mid upper 40s N W and low mid 50s S e.

Winds will be mostly SW at 5 to 10 mph.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Summary... Focus through the long term is on a pair of cold
fronts. The first one should sweep through the region on
Saturday, while the second one is set to arrive on Tuesday.

Details:
Saturday and Saturday night... Cold front should arrive through
during the day. Interestingly, we may not get much precip with
the front (save for southern delaware and far SE nj), but could
see a round of precipitation behind the front due to a
combination of the vorticity maximum ahead of the mid and upper
level trough and lake effect precipitation. If we do have any
precipitation behind the front, it should be mostly rain, though
the higher terrain of the poconos and NW nj could see some
flurries mixed in. Not surprisingly with this scenario, the one
possible limiting factor is how quickly we will see dry air
advection behind the front.

Sunday and Monday... Similar to the pattern we experienced
yesterday into today, we should see a surface high build east
through this time. Consequently, breezy northwesterly winds on
Sunday will slowly subside into Monday as the pressure gradient
decreases.

Tuesday... This period is interesting because the overall
pattern has some characteristics of a clipper system. A very
fast moving trough will dig southeast out of manitoba into the
great lakes region, before lifting northeast. The cold front
associated with this low is currently forecast to propagate all
the way through the region and well to our south before stalling
and dissipating. There is always a bit of uncertainty with how
far south fronts will get with such fast moving systems.

However, given the current pattern and relatively good model
agreement, it is likely this cold front will make it through our
region. Precipitation is possible, but so far unlikely with
this system as we could be in the prime location for the dry
slot ahead of the front.

Wednesday through Friday... Surface high once again builds east
leaving us in a benign, if not colder than normal, weather
pattern. Some of the models depict a warm front arriving late
next week, but that would take a significant pattern change, so
that scenario is very uncertain at this time.

Aviation 07z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions expected with light winds this morning. Winds
will begin to increase later this morning reaching 10-12 knots this
afternoon. Wind direction will be W then sw. Few ci cs late.

Tonight...VFR continues with increasing clouds. Sct showers are
expected across the terminals beginning around midnight and lasting
(at least) through dawn. Winds will be mostly SW at 5 to 10
knots.

Outlook...

Saturday... MostlyVFR conditions. However, there is a chance
for rain showers which could result in temporary ceiling and
visibility restrictions. Westerly winds gusting to near 20 kt
through the day, becoming northwesterly late in the day with
gusts as high as 25 kt.

Sunday through Tuesday...VFR conditions expected. Northwesterly
winds gusting up to 25 kt on Sunday. Otherwise, mostly light
(less than 10 kt) winds Monday and Tuesday.

Marine
High pressure moves offshore today while low pressure
strengthens and moves across ontario and quebec. The pressure
gradient strengthens and winds will freshen across the waters later
today and tonight. Scattered showers will arrive late tonight. We
will convert the gale watch to a warning and leave the times
unchanged from before. The SCA for the upper delaware bay will be
left as is. Seas on the ocean will increase to 4 to 6 ft by dawn
Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday... SCA conditions may linger on the coastal waters for
much of the day.

Saturday night and Sunday... Winds will increase once again.

There is a chance for gale force gusts primarily on the atlantic
coastal waters late Saturday night through Sunday morning.

Monday and Tuesday... Winds are likely to stay below sca
criteria. There is a chance for elevated seas on the coastal
waters on Tuesday, but confidence is low on this.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for paz054-055-
060>062-103-105.

Frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for paz070-071-101-
102-104-106.

Nj... Freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for njz001-007>010.

Frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for njz012-013-
015>023-027.

De... Frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for dez001>003.

Md... Frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for mdz008-012-015-
019-020.

Marine... Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 am edt Saturday for
anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 am edt
Saturday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Johnson
aviation... Johnson o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 15 mi36 min WSW 7 G 8.9 53°F 60°F1028.6 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi36 min 53°F 41°F
44063 - Annapolis 21 mi42 min W 7.8 G 7.8 51°F 1028.8 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 22 mi36 min 53°F 1028.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi84 min W 7 G 8 51°F 64°F1029.3 hPa (+0.0)39°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 27 mi36 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 47°F 1028.4 hPa
FSNM2 27 mi36 min Calm G 2.9 49°F 1027.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 31 mi36 min W 1 G 1.9 46°F 68°F1028 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 33 mi42 min 56°F 64°F1029.5 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi114 min Calm 37°F 1028 hPa37°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 36 mi36 min Calm G 1 43°F 61°F1028.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 39 mi34 min WSW 5.8 G 9.7 55°F 1029.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi114 min Calm 37°F 1029 hPa37°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 41 mi36 min WSW 9.9 G 11 50°F 65°F1028 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 44 mi36 min 62°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 45 mi36 min WSW 2.9 G 6 47°F 57°F1028 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi36 min WSW 6 G 8.9 54°F 1029.2 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD15 mi44 minWSW 510.00 miFair52°F41°F67%1028.4 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD17 mi34 minN 010.00 miClear48°F44°F87%1029.8 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD22 mi30 minWSW 510.00 miFair51°F39°F64%1028.6 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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NW7NW8NW9N9NW8NW7NW8NW7W6NW9NW6NW3N3CalmCalmCalmSW3W5W4CalmCalmCalmSW4
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Tide / Current Tables for Centreville Landing, Corsica River, Maryland
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Centreville Landing
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:30 AM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:35 AM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:54 PM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:55 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.82.12.22.22.11.91.61.310.80.811.21.51.71.81.71.51.310.80.80.9

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:49 AM EDT     0.70 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:57 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:19 AM EDT     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:43 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:42 PM EDT     0.64 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:41 PM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.70.60.3-0-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.30.10.40.60.60.50.3-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.