Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Severna Park, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:26PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 9:54 PM EDT (01:54 UTC) Moonrise 1:18PMMoonset 11:15PM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 734 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt...diminishing to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 734 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the waters through tonight while a weak wave of low pressure passes by to the south. A cold front will pass through the waters Wednesday and high pressure will build overhead for Thursday before moving offshore Friday. Another cold front will pass through the waters Saturday. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for Thursday, and again Friday afternoon through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Severna Park, MD
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location: 39.07, -76.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 170124
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
924 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis
A wave of low pressure will pass by to the south overnight before
a cold front passes through the area Wednesday. High pressure
will build eastward from the ohio valley into the mid- atlantic
Thursday before moving offshore Friday. Another cold front will
pass through Saturday and high pressure will build overhead for
early next week.

Near term through Wednesday
An upper-level disturbance will pass across our region overnight
in a southwest flow aloft. A weak surface low will develop in
lieu of this upper level disturbance and pass by to our south.

Clouds will thicken overnight. Some light rain could even occur
across parts of eastern virginia and southern maryland. Clouds
should thin out by daybreak with light rain moving east.

Temperatures overnight will dip into the middle 30s along the
allegheny front to the 40s across most other locations, to near
50 lower 50s in downtown washington baltimore as well as the va
piedmont and southern maryland.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
The wave of low pressure will continue to move off to the east
Wednesday while the upper-level trough over the great lakes
shifts east into new england. The cold front associated with
this system will pass through the area during the morning and
midday hours. A wind shift to the west and northwest is expected
behind the boundary, and it will become windy during this time.

Frequent gusts around 30 to 40 mph are likely over much of the
area, with even higher gusts around 45 mph over the mountains.

The downsloping west to northwest flow combined with sunshine
will actually allow for temps to reach well into the 60s for
most areas despite cold advection.

However, the cold advection will take over Wednesday night as
canadian high pressure builds toward the area behind the
boundary. It will turn out quite chilly, with min temps dipping
into the 20s in the mountains and mid to upper 30s for most
other locations. There should be enough wind to prevent widespread
frost for most areas, but some frost is possible toward morning
in sheltered valleys as well.

High pressure will continue to build overhead for Thursday
through Thursday night, brining dry and chilly conditions. Light
winds, mainly clear skies and dry air will provide a great setup
for radiational cooling Thursday night. Lows will drop into the
lower to middle 30s for many areas, and more widespread frost is
possible during this time as well as possible freezing
conditions.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
To start out on Friday, high pressure will be centered overhead.

The morning will be a cool one, as temperatures rise up from
what will likely be the coolest temperatures of the fall season
to date. With ample sunshine through the morning and early
afternoon, temperatures will rebound to near 60 degrees. A few
high clouds will be possible during the afternoon, but the vast
majority of the day should stay sunny.

At mid-upper levels, a potent trough will slide down from central
canada in northwesterly flow and move over the great lakes region
Friday into Friday night. As the trough progresses
southeastward, it will also act to absorb and ultimately shear
out an upper level low currently located over the desert
southwest. Differential cyclonic vorticity advection ahead of
the lead shearing out trough will provide dynamic forcing for
ascent over the region Friday night, leading to chances for rain
across the area. By Saturday morning, the surface cold front
associated with the system will have passed through, whisking
most of the low-level moisture out of the area. On Saturday,
we'll be embedded in northwesterly flow in the wake of the cold
front. Downslope flow in the lee of the appalachians should keep
locations east of the blue ridge predominantly dry, but upslope
northwesterly flow should lead to some showers over higher
elevations along and west of the blue ridge. By Saturday night,
much cooler air will work into the area, with 850 hpa
temperatures dropping well below 0c. This may allow any leftover
upslope showers to mix with snow over the higher elevations to
the west of the blue ridge. Any leftover upslope showers over
the higher terrain should dissipate by early Sunday morning as
high pressure starts to build into the ohio valley.

The aforementioned area of high pressure will move overhead for
Sunday afternoon through Monday, providing a quiet stretch of fall
weather. Temperatures will run around ten degrees below average on
Sunday and Monday, with high temperatures in the 50s and low
temperatures in the 30s to near 40.

Aviation 01z Wednesday through Sunday
A period of MVFR CIGS are possible overnight as the low passes
by to the south.VFR conditions will return by Wednesday
morning.

Gusty west and northwest winds are expected behind a cold front
late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Gusts around
30 knots are possible, but wind speeds should be a bit lighter
at kcho. Winds will diminish later Wednesday evening as high
pressure builds overhead. The high will remain overhead through
Thursday night.

Vfr conditions are expected on Friday, with mostly sunny skies
in the morning giving away to a few mid-high level clouds
during the afternoon. Sub-vfr conditions could be possible
Friday night in association with some showers.VFR conditions
should return Saturday afternoon through Monday, with mostly dry
conditions and gusty northwesterly winds in the wake of the
cold front.

Marine
A wave of low pressure will pass by to the south overnight. The
gradient should be light enough for winds to remain below sca
criteria.

A cold front will pass through the waters Wednesday. Gusty
west and northwest winds are expected behind the cold front. A
small craft advisory is in effect for the waters Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening, and for the bay and lower
tidal potomac river Wednesday night. Gusts around 30 knots are
likely Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. There are
stronger winds around 35 to 40 knots at the top of the mixing
layer. It is not out of the question that these winds could mix
down to the surface, but guidance shows that winds are not quite
perfectly aligned directionally with height... So there is a
better chance that not all of those winds will mix down.

Therefore, kept the SCA instead of a gale warning, but it will
be close.

High pressure will build overhead for Thursday through Thursday
night.

Sca levels winds appear possible Friday through Friday night in
southerly flow ahead of an approaching system, and then again on
Saturday through much of the weekend in northwesterly flow
behind the departing system.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 am Wednesday to 6 am edt Thursday
for anz530>534-537>543.

Small craft advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Wednesday for
anz535-536.

Synopsis... Klw
near term... Klw
short term... Bjl klw
long term... Kjp
aviation... Klw kjp
marine... Klw kjp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi36 min 58°F 1019.7 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 10 mi30 min W 9.7 G 12 58°F 1020.5 hPa
FSNM2 11 mi36 min SW 1.9 G 5.1 57°F 1019.3 hPa
CPVM2 11 mi36 min 58°F 38°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 11 mi36 min SW 5.1 G 6 57°F 1019.7 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 14 mi36 min W 1.9 G 5.1 70°F1019.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi54 min WSW 12 G 14 58°F 68°F1020.8 hPa (+0.0)45°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi36 min WSW 8 G 9.9 59°F 65°F1020 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi144 min Calm 52°F 1020 hPa49°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 28 mi36 min SSW 4.1 G 6 57°F 66°F1020.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi34 min W 9.7 G 14 60°F 1020.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi42 min 56°F 68°F1021.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi36 min WSW 6 G 8 58°F 1020.8 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair59°F46°F64%1020 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD10 mi60 minSSW 310.00 miOvercast51°F46°F86%1019.5 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD11 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair50°F46°F88%1020.7 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD14 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair55°F48°F77%1019.6 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi60 minno data mi57°F41°F55%1019.6 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD20 mi69 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F46°F77%1020.3 hPa
College Park Airport, MD20 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair51°F47°F86%1020 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD23 mi2 hrsSW 410.00 miFair53°F46°F79%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr55W6NW11
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NW13NW12N8N13N8NW8N7NW4N7NW6W5W4W5CalmW3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmS4CalmCalmCalmS3S4CalmS6S5S5S5S5SW7
G16
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2 days agoNW7NW8W6NW8N9N8N5CalmCalmN3N3W4CalmCalmSW3CalmSE4NE33S3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Brewer Point, Maryland
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Brewer Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 07:08 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:44 AM EDT     0.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:30 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.110.90.70.60.50.50.50.60.70.80.80.70.60.50.40.30.30.40.50.70.91.1

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:40 AM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:19 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:59 AM EDT     0.48 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:39 PM EDT     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:51 PM EDT     0.76 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.4-0.10.20.40.50.40.2-0-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.20.50.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.