Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Severna Park, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:18PM Thursday January 24, 2019 6:42 AM EST (11:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:40PMMoonset 9:52AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 638 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm est this evening through late tonight...
Today..S winds 20 kt...becoming nw this afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain, mainly this morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt... Becoming W 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 kt...becoming se. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 638 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front over the ohio valley will cross the waters this afternoon as low pressure passes through the region. A reinforcing front will push through the waters on Friday, with high pressure transiting the area through the weekend. Small craft advisories are likely Friday and Friday night, and may be required Saturday night and Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Severna Park, MD
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 39.07, -76.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 klwx 240905
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
405 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
A cold front approaching from the ohio valley will cross the
mid-atlantic by this afternoon. Another cold front will cross
the region Friday. High pressure will follow for this weekend.

Low pressure may affect the region early next week.

Near term through tonight
Latest analysis depicts a warm front snaking east to west over
the cwa, with a typical cool damming wedge east of the blue
ridge and west of the fall line. Surface low pressure developing
along the cold front will slide eastward along this warm front,
more or less, as the day progresses, providing focus for heavier
rain and potentially an embedded squall line. While a period of
heavier rain is more certain, hence the flood watch (see
hydrology section for more details), the squall line threat is a
bit more uncertain. Our wind advisory for this morning is based
on this potential, however, as with the rain falling across the
region, winds will have trouble mixing down without a strong
forcing mechanism such as the aforementioned squall line. This
line may ultimately form right on the main cold front itself, so
we may need to adjust the advisory timing based on it as we get
a firmer grip. Right now the front looks likely to clear the cwa
by early afternoon, but there remains some uncertainty here.

By afternoon, the front is through, but pressure rises may
result in continued gusty winds after the rain ends,
particularly across the ridges and in north-central md. Thus,
have expanded extended wind advisory for these areas for the
afternoon hours. Winds should start coming down fast by sunset,
however.

Speaking of things that will be dropping fast, temperatures will
also plumet, with highs this morning approaching 60 and temps
likely back towards 40 by evening. However, compared to the drop
and wind combintation we saw Sunday, this should not be quite
as severe.

As high pressure slowly builds in tonight, upslope flow likely
keeps snow showers going along the allegheny front, but
elsewhere, winds will slowly diminish and it should remain
mostly dry. Lows generally below freezing.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Another front will cross the region Friday. It could bring a few
snow showers with it, though most guidance presently looks dry.

Will continue to monitor this potential. Otherwise, its just a
reinforcing shot of cold, dry air, and in fact the upslope snow
showers along the allegheny front should diminish behind this
boundary.

Dry high pressure should then dominate Friday night through
Saturday night, aside from some upslope snow showers along the
allegheny front. It will be cold, but not particularly severe,
at least when compared to last Monday.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
An upper level low north of the great lakes and deep layered
troughing will reside along and north of the area Sunday. The
trough will dig a bit southward during the day on Sunday as it
does begin to migrate eastward, and at the surface a cold front
will stall just to our north. This may deliver some light
rain snow showers west of the blue ridge Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night, as clouds increase during this period. Highs will
top out at or just above normal on Sunday, ranging from the
middle 30s to middle 40s, with lows Sunday night in the 20s
everywhere to near 30 degrees in the cities.

With high pressure over the western atlantic, light southerly
flow will bring temperatures once again near normal on Monday,
with dry conditions prevailing. Low pressure will near the great
lakes Monday night, stretching a cold front into the ohio
valley. This will promote an increase in cloud cover Monday
night, with that southerly flow increasing, temperatures will be
above normal in the upper 20s to middle 30s. Precipitation
associated with the approaching cold front will likely hold off
until the day on Tuesday as a large upper low sinks southward
from canada. As the surface low tracks well to our north and
west, we will reside on the warm side as the cold front moves
into the area Tuesday. Colder air will not be far off to our
west, so carrying rain snow chances west of the blue ridge
during the day Tuesday, with a chance of rain likely east of the
mountains. The cold front is progged to press through the area
Tuesday evening, bringing an end to any precipitation as dry
northwesterly flow takes hold.

Cold air advection really takes hold Wednesday and Wednesday
night as canadian high pressure spills in to the central us.

Upslope snow showers expected during this time with gusty
northwest winds prevailing. Temperatures will run below normal
for late january, with highs on Wednesday in the 20s 30s, and
lows Wednesday night projected to rival the recent brief cold
snap we just saw, with single digits and teens area wide. This
will once again bring wind chill concerns to the region, with
single digits to teens wind chills on Wednesday, and single
digit to below zero wind chills possible Wednesday night.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
Rain, low level wind shear, low vis and CIGS are the order of
the morning. One big question, however, is just how much wind
mixes to the surface this morning. At present, the atmosphere
remains relatively stable. If a convective line, as shown by
some meso guidance, can get going and cross the region later
this morning, then strong gusts can reach the surface during the
rain this morning - if this doesn't happen, gusts likely stay
below 30 knots for the most part until the rain departs.

Gusty winds also likely behind the front, but strongest of these
likely confined to md terminals. Otherwise,VFR should dominate
this afternoon through Saturday night, though a stray snow
shower could cross the region Friday with a secondary front.

Vfr conditions expected Sunday through Monday as high pressure
resides over the western atlantic with mainly dry conditions and
light south southwesterly winds prevailing at the terminals. A
few snow showers may cross the mountains on Sunday, with any
impacts causing brief subVFR conditions relegated to mrb. Low
pressure will pass to the north and west of the terminals late
Monday night, as its associated cold front remains over the ohio
valley. SubVFR conditions possible at mrb late Monday night in
snow showers, but all other terminals remaining dry withVFR
conditions.

Marine
Strong southerly flow resulting in widespread SCA gusts so far.

Some meso guidance continues to indicate a convective line will
develop within the wider band of rain, which could bring
stronger gale force gusts down to the surface this morning -
thus, gale warning remains in effect. After the rain ends and
cold front blasts through, we have another opportunity for
gales, especially across the northern bay waters. After that,
winds should gradually subside back to SCA by nightfall and
below SCA by early Friday morning. Another front crossing the
waters likely brings SCA back later Friday, and the gradient may
remain up on Saturday resulting in more SCA gusts.

Sca conditions will be possible on Sunday with high pressure
over the western atlantic and southerly flow prevailing. Sub sca
breezes out of the south southwest anticipated Sunday night
through Monday night as high pressure continues to linger over
the east coast.

Hydrology
Latest guidance has honed in with the heaviest rain (a bit above
1 inch on average) focused on the areas already under a flood
watch, so felt no significant need to expand the watch as
inherited. The areas with heaviest rain are likely those which
can get into the warm sector and take most advantage of the
warmer, more moist air flowing up from the south. Otherwise,
same concerns apply with saturated soils, some snow melt and
partly frozen soils.

Several flood warnings and flood watches are already out for
some rivers - see the individual watches and warnings for
details. Additional flood watches and warnings for the rivers
may be necessary depending on just how much rain actually falls.

With several dry days ahead after today, the flood risk should
drop for a time.

Tides coastal flooding
While no tidal flooding is currently forecast, we are expecting
anomalies to continue to increase today as strong southerly
flow prevails. This will continue to bring a threat for minor
tidal flooding should anomalies rise quicker than currently
forecast. Strong west northwest flow tonight and Friday will
deliver decreasing anomalies headed into the weekend, thus no
concerns for flooding at this time.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Flood watch until 3 pm est this afternoon for dcz001.

Wind advisory until 11 am est this morning for dcz001.

Md... Wind advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for mdz004-501.

Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for mdz005-006-011-
503>508.

Flood watch until 3 pm est this afternoon for mdz004>006-011-
013-014-016-503>508.

Wind advisory until 11 am est this morning for mdz013-014-
016>018.

Va... Flood watch until 11 am est this morning for vaz025-036-503-
504-508.

Wind advisory until 4 am est early this morning for vaz503.

Wind advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for vaz503.

High wind warning until 4 am est early this morning for vaz508.

Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for vaz508.

Flood watch until 1 pm est this afternoon for vaz037>040-050-
051-507.

Flood watch until 3 pm est this afternoon for vaz052>056-501-
502-505-506.

Wind advisory until 11 am est this morning for vaz052>057-502-
506.

Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for vaz507.

Wv... Wind advisory until 4 am est early this morning for wvz505.

Wind advisory from 11 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for wvz501-503-505.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 am est Friday
for anz530>534-537>543.

Gale warning until 6 pm est this evening for anz530>543.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to midnight est
tonight for anz535-536.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Bkf
aviation... Bkf rcm
marine... Bkf rcm
hydrology... Rcm
tides coastal flooding... Bkf


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi49 min 50°F 1002 hPa
CPVM2 11 mi49 min 50°F 50°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 11 mi49 min SSE 15 G 18 50°F 1001.6 hPa
FSNM2 11 mi49 min S 15 G 22 52°F 1001 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 14 mi49 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 50°F 37°F1001.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi43 min SSE 24 G 27 47°F 38°F1002.7 hPa (-5.1)47°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi49 min SSE 13 G 19 56°F 34°F1002.4 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi133 min S 12 52°F 1005 hPa51°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 28 mi49 min S 16 G 21 56°F 36°F1000.9 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi49 min 55°F 35°F1004 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi49 min S 19 G 20 44°F 1004.2 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
Last
24hr
SW6
G10
S5
G9
S5
G9
SW4
G9
SW6
G13
S7
G12
S3
G10
S6
SE7
G11
SE8
G11
S8
S7
S7
S5
G9
S7
G10
S8
G12
S12
G15
S14
G18
S12
G18
S15
G19
S19
G24
S14
G23
S15
G21
S16
G24
1 day
ago
NW5
NE1
SE10
SE9
SE11
S7
G12
S6
G11
S9
G15
SW4
G10
S9
G16
S10
G16
S10
G16
S10
G16
S10
G16
S10
G14
S10
G15
S10
G14
2 days
ago
NW31
NW22
G27
W17
W16
G20
W17
G21
W18
G22

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi1.8 hrsS 13 G 225.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist51°F46°F86%1004.4 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD10 mi49 minSSE 8 G 177.00 miLight Rain51°F51°F100%1001.5 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD11 mi61 minSE 77.00 miOvercast50°F50°F100%1002.7 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD14 mi63 minS 16 G 2410.00 miLight Rain52°F0°F%1003.4 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi49 minno data mi52°F50°F93%1002.3 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD20 mi58 minSE 124.00 miLight Rain48°F48°F100%1003.4 hPa
College Park Airport, MD20 mi60 minS 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast57°F54°F91%1001.4 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD23 mi1.8 hrsS 1710.00 miLight Rain57°F55°F95%1003.7 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
Last 24hrS8S5S5S6S7S5
G14
S12
G18
SE12SE8S9S7S7SE3S11S14
G23
S14
G24
S13
G21
S13
G18
S9
G19
S14
G23
S12
G25
S12
G22
S13
G22
S16
G26
1 day agoW5NW8NW7N6CalmN3CalmSE8SE8SE7SE7S6S8S6S7S6S8S10S9S10
G16
S11S10S10S8
2 days agoNW12
G30
W12
G23
NW14
G28
NW21
G35
NW20
G34
NW18
G33
NW17
G33
NW12
G29
NW14
G30
NW12
G21
W13
G25
NW10
G24
NW9
G20
W8NW9
G17
W9W7W7NW5W8W3W4NW9W6

Tide / Current Tables for Brewer Point, Maryland
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Brewer Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:36 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:52 AM EST     0.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:51 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:13 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:31 PM EST     0.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.2-0-0.2-0.2-0.10.20.40.60.60.50.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.10.10.40.70.80.80.70.5

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:21 AM EST     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:46 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM EST     0.83 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:51 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:40 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:33 PM EST     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:23 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:40 PM EST     0.98 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:48 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.8-0.40.10.50.80.80.60.3-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.20.30.70.910.80.4-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (6,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.