Thursday, October19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Severna Park, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:22PM Thursday October 19, 2017 5:22 AM EDT (09:22 UTC) Moonrise 5:58AMMoonset 5:42PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 510 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 510 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain near the region for the rest of the week and into the weekend. A weak front will pass by to the north tonight before a stronger front approaches early next week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Severna Park, MD
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location: 39.07, -76.57     debug

Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 190737
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
337 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

High pressure will remain across the mid atlantic through this
weekend. A low pressure system will affect the region early
next week.

Near term through tonight
Its chilly again this morning, but with higher dew points, its
not quite as cold or frosty as the last couple mornings. The
higher dew points have led to a little patchy fog, but not much
as of this writing. High pressure is centered over the southern
appalachians at present, and will generally remain in control
of the weather through the day. We'll have a few high clouds
around, but nothing to prevent temps from rising rapidly after
sunrise. With relatively dry air in place and plenty of Sun (if
filtered a little), we should manage the low 70s in most spots.

A very weak cold front will cross the region this evening. This
will result in a bit more wind overnight, but little more than
that. Because of the wind keeping it stirred up, temps should be
a bit higher than the last few nights. In areas where the wind
diminishes late, patchy fog could redevelop.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
High pressure will remain over the region through the short
term. It will be centered just to our southwest Friday, then
slowly migrate northeastward to a position off CAPE cod by
Saturday night. Winds may be a little breezy Friday in the wake
of the previous night's cold frontal passage, but should be very
light Saturday as the high drifts on by. Temps will remain warm
during the day thanks to minimal air mass change, with 70s
common both Friday and Saturday, with lows falling back into the
40s each night thanks to good radiational cooling under the
high and limited if any cloud cover. Patchy fog will be possible
late each night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
A significant change to the synoptic height pattern is forecast
to take place across the northern hemisphere this period. A
large deep upper-level low will retrograde out of northern
canada into the bering strait western alaska over the weekend.

This will force a building ridge over western north america, and
lowering heights across the eastern conus. With a blocking
ridge downstream over the north atlantic, interaction between
the northern and southern streams seems likely early next week.

The exact evolution is, of course, uncertain at this time range.

But the pattern should transition from warm dry to cool stormy
over the mid-atlantic early next week. Latest 00z deterministic
runs and their respective ensembles continue to show this
overall evolution, with spread in finer scale details which will
be ironed out in the coming days.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
Patchy fog possible at mrb cho iad over the next few mornings,
but odds are low and if it does happen, it should generally be
MVFR at worst. Otherwise,VFR through Saturday night all
terminals with light winds under high pressure.

Some low CIGS vsbys may develop early Monday morning as
moisture returns aroud departing high pressure. Otherwise
guidance in agreement with pattern which would favorVFR Sunday
into Monday.

High pressure will generally keep winds below SCA criteria
through Saturday night. The exception will be tonight into
Friday morning, when a weak passing cold front will stir the
winds up. Soundings show some sustained winds of 20-30 knots
just above the surface, and while upstream, near shore areas
will probably have a surface inversion, just off shore,
especially as one heads further downstream, that inversion
should be weaker if present at all given the warm water temps,
so expect some of that wind to start mixing down later tonight
into Friday morning. As temps warm and the winds just above the
surface diminish during the day Friday, gusts should drop below
sca criteria.

Southerly channeling to SCA levels possible by Monday as high
pressure moves offshore.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to noon edt Friday
for anz531>534-537-539>541-543.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Dfh
aviation... Rcm dfh
marine... Rcm dfh

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi52 min 52°F 1024.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 11 mi52 min SW 4.1 G 6 52°F 1024.8 hPa
CPVM2 11 mi52 min 59°F 50°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi82 min SW 11 G 12 58°F 67°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 14 mi52 min WSW 1.9 G 4.1 52°F 70°F1024.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi52 min S 4.1 G 6 58°F 65°F1025.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi112 min Calm 44°F 1025 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 28 mi52 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 54°F 68°F1025.2 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi182 min W 12 G 12 62°F 1026 hPa
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 42 mi162 min SW 1.9 G 3.9 58°F 1025.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi52 min 51°F 67°F1026.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi52 min SW 8 G 11 58°F 1026.1 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi28 minN 010.00 miFair52°F48°F89%1025.1 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD10 mi28 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds43°F43°F100%1024.8 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD11 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair37°F37°F100%1025.7 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD14 mi42 minSSW 410.00 miFair55°F48°F77%1025.4 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi88 minno data mi53°F46°F77%1025.1 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD20 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair46°F46°F100%1025.4 hPa
College Park Airport, MD20 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair42°F41°F97%1025.1 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD23 mi24 minS 410.00 miFair44°F42°F93%1025.7 hPa

Wind History from BWI (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW3CalmSW3W5W4SW3SW4S53S4S6SW4S3SW3S3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW3CalmCalm3N7N7NE653N5CalmCalmS3S5S4CalmCalmW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago3W4W4NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Point, Severn River, Maryland
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Cedar Point
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Thu -- 12:30 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:04 AM EDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:30 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:39 PM EDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Thu -- 02:45 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:34 AM EDT     0.75 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:27 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:29 AM EDT     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 05:47 PM EDT     1.09 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.