Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Severna Park, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:51PM Saturday November 17, 2018 11:00 PM EST (04:00 UTC) Moonrise 2:12PMMoonset 12:48AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 936 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon night..N winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 936 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain overhead through tonight before shifting offshore on Sunday. SEveral waves of low pressure and their associated fronts will move near the waters through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Severna Park, MD
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location: 39.07, -76.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 180214
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
914 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the ohio valley will remain overhead through
tonight before moving offshore on Sunday. Several waves of low
pressure will then pass near the region, the first on Sunday
night, and the second on Monday night. A stronger cold front
will then approach the region from the northwest Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
High pressure will remain overhead late tonight while low
pressure moves northeast into the midwest. A southwest flow will
develop aloft, and this will cause relatively warmer and more
moist air to overrun the surface cold air in place. Therefore,
clouds are expected to increase, especially north west of the
i-95 corridor. Did tweak temps down a bit in rural areas for
radiational cooling, but temps may hold steady or even rise if
the clouds do develop overnight.

The 18znam continues to show the possibility of drizzle freezing
drizzle toward morning, but most other guidance remains dry.

Will continue with the dry forecast for now since the low-levels
below 2kft are progged to be dry, but still cannot completely
rule out drizzle. Patchy fog is also possible. Lows will range
from the mid to upper 20s in the colder valleys and rural areas,
to the mid and upper 30s in downtown washington and baltimore.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Monday night
Southerly flow will develop on Sunday as the weak area of low
pressure moves into the ohio valley. Mostly cloudy skies are
expected, but conditions should remain dry for just about
everywhere. Highs from the mid 40s to low 50s.

The wave of low pressure will pass by near or just to the north
Sunday night. Some light showers are possible overnight, mainly
near the pa border and across eastern WV and western md.

Forecast temperature profiles suggest any precipitation should
be in the form of rain. Lows in the mid 30s to near 40f.

The first area of low pressure will pass eastward on Monday,
while a second low is progged to develop near or west of the
area by Monday afternoon along a frontal boundary. Thus, chances
for rain showers will be on the upward trend Monday, although
at this point, highest probabilities appear west of i-95 and the
metros during the day. The low will move near the region Monday
night and offshore Tuesday morning with the highest chances of
precipitation during this time. Most locations likely to see
rain showers, but a change to snow showers over the higher
terrain appears likely as cold air advection occurs behind the
system Monday night into early Tuesday. A light accumulation of
snow is possible. Highs Monday in the upper 40s to mid 50s with
lows Monday night in the 30s to around 40f.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
On Tuesday, expecting high pressure to return to the region behind a
passing cold front, bringing dry weather for most of the
region. However, some upslope snow showers are possible along
the allegany front throughout the day, but not expecting much,
if anything, east of there. Cooler air following the frontal
passage will bring continued below average temperatures to the
region, with highs only expected to reach the mid to upper 40s.

On Wednesday, high pressure builds into the region, with dry
conditions expected across the entire area. Temperatures will again
be below average, with temps in the mid 40s. Another cold front will
drop through the region on Wednesday night or early Thursday
morning. This front does not have much moisture or upper forcing to
support precipitation. However, it will bring in much colder air.

High temperatures may struggle to reach 40 on Thursday. With high
pressure building in though, expect it to be a dry day at least.

High pressure continues to build into the region on Friday, bringing
continued dry conditions. Temperatures may rebound slightly, but
remain below average.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr expected through late this evening. Low level stratus
clouds are expected to form late tonight and especially Sunday
morning, and MVFR is likely for mrb and cho, and possible at
iad. Lesser chances for MVFR exist eastward to bwi mtn. Its also
not out of the realm of possibilities that some patchy
fog drizzle occur at mrb cho.

Potential for MVFR stratus continues Sunday night into Monday,
with the highest chances continuing at mrb.

Vfr is expected through the long term period. Main issues will
just be periods of gusty winds with passing cold fronts, which
look mostly dry at this point.

Marine
As high pressure builds into the region through Sunday, winds
will trend lighter and sub SCA conditions are expected through
the weekend. Gradient will also remain weak over the waters
Monday and Monday night as weak low pressure approaches from the
west with sub-sca conditions forecast.

Sca conditions will be possible Tuesday as a cold front departs the
region. Winds probably diminish Wednesday.

Climate
Here are the current rankings for wettest year on record
(through november 15th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.09 inches (1878)
4. 58.58 inches (2018)
5. 58.17 inches (1886)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 63.18 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
3. 62.35 inches (1889)
4. 58.98 inches (1979)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 59.17 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
4. 58.09 inches (1996)
5. 55.43 inches (1979)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mm
near term... Bjl mm
short term... Mm
long term... Cjl
aviation... Bjl mm cjl
marine... Bjl mm cjl
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi30 min 39°F 1026.8 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 10 mi24 min N 3.9 G 3.9 43°F 1027.6 hPa
FSNM2 11 mi30 min NNW 8 G 8.9 43°F 1026.5 hPa
CPVM2 11 mi30 min 44°F 32°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 11 mi30 min NW 7 G 8 43°F 1027.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 14 mi30 min N 5.1 G 7 43°F 55°F1026.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi60 min NNW 5.1 G 5.1 44°F 49°F1028 hPa (+0.9)33°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi30 min N 7 G 8.9 43°F 47°F1027.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi90 min Calm 33°F 1027 hPa32°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 28 mi30 min S 1 G 1.9 40°F 46°F1027.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi30 min 48°F 1027.4 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi30 min 40°F 49°F1027.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi30 min NE 6 G 8 46°F 1027.8 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi66 minNNW 48.00 miFair41°F37°F86%1027.3 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD10 mi66 minWNW 310.00 miFair33°F30°F92%1026.9 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD11 mi78 minN 010.00 miFair32°F30°F93%1028.1 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD14 mi80 minNNW 410.00 miFair43°F33°F71%1027.1 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi66 minno data mi41°F30°F65%1027.1 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD20 mi2.3 hrsN 010.00 miClear37°F35°F93%1027.4 hPa
College Park Airport, MD20 mi78 minN 07.00 miFair33°F31°F94%1027.1 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD23 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair34°F31°F90%1027.6 hPa

Wind History from BWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5W8SW4SW4NW8W7W9NW7W6W7W10W13
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W10W10W9W9W6W7NW6NW3CalmCalmCalmNW3
1 day agoNE12N4NW12W16
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NW106W6SW4W9W8SW7
2 days agoNE8NE9NE12NE11NE8NE8NE10NE9NE8NE7NE8NE9NE10NE10NE13
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Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Point, Severn River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:08 AM EST     0.59 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:47 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:04 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:30 AM EST     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:50 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:02 PM EST     0.73 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:13 PM EST     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:09 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.30-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.30.10.40.60.70.70.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.3-00.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.