Sunday, November19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Arden on the Severn, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 4:50PM Sunday November 19, 2017 4:44 PM EST (21:44 UTC) Moonrise 7:42AMMoonset 6:01PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 332 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..W winds 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ500 332 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build to our south through Monday. The high will move offshore Tuesday and a cold front will pass through late Tuesday night into Wednesday and high pressure is most likely to return for Wednesday night through thanksgiving day. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday through Wednesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arden on the Severn, MD
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location: 39.07, -76.58     debug

Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 192001
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
301 pm est Sun nov 19 2017

High pressure will build to our south tonight through Monday
night. The high will move offshore Tuesday and a cold front will
pass through Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will
build back overhead later Wednesday through thanksgiving day.

Coastal low pressure will likely move well out to sea Friday and
a cold front will pass through Saturday.

Near term through Monday
Current surface analysis reveals deepening low pressure over the
lowe st. Lawrence valley heading northeast, with the cold front
which passed through the area early this morning now well off
the coast. High pressure remains centered well to the southwest
over texas, however. Aloft, a deep longwave trough dominates the
eastern united states, with one shortwave crossing new england
and a second approaching our area from ohio.

The approaching shortwave aloft and departing surface low will
continue to dominate our weather tonight. As the surface low
continues moving away, the gusty winds will continue slowly
diminishing, but we are unlikely to really get light overnight
as cold advection continues. As the shortwave passes, the snow
showers over the allegheny front are likely to reintensify, so
the winter weather advisory remains in effect for the higher
elevations of western pendleton and western grant counties. The
shortwave may in fact be enough of a forcing mechanism to get a
few flurries or sprinkles to travel east of the mountains, most
likely towards martinsburg and hagerstown, but possibly
approaching the metro itself. There should be no impact from
these except for a little wonder at seeing snowflakes for the
first time this season, if it happens.

Overnight, snow showers along the allegheny front should
quickly wind down behind the shortwave. Temps will bottom out
below freezing in most of the area, except the warmest urban
centers and along the warmer large bodies of water
(potomac chesapeake).

On Monday, high pressure should continue building eastward,
reaching eastern north carolina by day's end. This will cause
winds to shift from northwest to southwest, but warm advection
will be slow, so we still expect Monday to be chilly, with highs
struggling to reach 50. The lighter winds and greater sunshine
under a shortwave ridge will likely make Monday feel a little
more comfortable, especially in the afternoon.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
High pressure will shift east off the coast Monday night and
Tuesday, allowing southwesterly flow to dominate. While Monday
night looks radiational thanks to diminishing winds and clear
skies near the center of the high, by Tuesday sunshine and
warmer air aloft will translate to warmer surface temps, with
most places rebounding 5-10 degrees above Monday's expected

Tuesday night, a cold front will approach from the northwest
while a shortwave will spawn a coastal low near the outer banks.

Still some question regarding how far west the rain shield from
this low makes it, but most guidance now shows rain reaching
southern maryland, and a fair number have rain reaching
baltimore and washington proper. Thus, have chance pops for the
big cities and likely in southern md. Further west, odds are
considerably lower. It should overall be a milder night thanks
to the warm advection ahead of the cold front combined with
increased cloud cover, with lows mostly above freezing.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure will build into the region Wednesday through
Friday night. Dry conditions expected with plenty of sunshine
each day and mainly clear skies at night. Despite the daytime
sunshine, temperatures each period will be about 5 to 7 degrees
below average with highs in the upper 40s to near 50 and lows in
the upper 20s to near 30.

A storm system over eastern canada will bring a cold front
toward and across the mid-atlantic Saturday and Saturday night.

There is a chance for a few rain showers along the mason-dixon
region Saturday with a chance of rain and snow showers in the
appalachians and along the mason-dixon regions Saturday night.

Temperatures will be closer to average.

A gusty northwest wind will usher in cold air into the region
Sunday. With that, a chance of snow showers are expected in the
appalachian mountains. Below average temperatures expected to
retake the region.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
Vfr overall through the TAF period. There could be a stray
sprinkle or flurry, but really, the main concern tonight is the
slowly diminishing wind gusts. Gusts should mostly be below 30
knots this evening and may drop below 20 knots late tonight.

Winds may return to the 20 knot range during the day Monday.

Tuesday night is the only real chance of sub-VFR as a low
pressure system could bring a bit of rain, which may reduce cigs
and vis for a time. Still uncertain just how far west this
precip gets.

Vfr conditions Wednesday through Thursday night. Winds
northwest 5 to 10 knots Wednesday. Winds northwest around 5
knots Wednesday night. Winds becoming light and variable
Thursday and Thursday night.

Gale warning remains in effect through 6pm. Some uncertainty for
the overnight given continued cold advection over warmer waters,
which could enhance mixing and bring some higher gusts back to
the surface. This might mean we need to extend the gale, but
with high uncertainty, have left it SCA for the time being to
give the evening shift one last look. SCA continues most waters
through Monday as high pressure shifts east to our south. Winds
probably go sub SCA on Monday night but may go back to sca
Tuesday ahead of the next cold front, which passes late Tuesday

Sca possible behind cold front Wednesday, may be diminishing
Wednesday night. Winds light and variable Thursday and Thursday

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... Winter weather advisory until 11 pm est this evening for

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm est Monday
for anz530>534-537>543.

Gale warning until 6 pm est this evening for anz530>543.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 10 am est
Monday for anz535-536.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Klw
aviation... Rcm klw
marine... Rcm klw

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi44 min 47°F 1008.1 hPa (+2.8)
44063 - Annapolis 10 mi34 min NNW 21 G 29 48°F 1 ft1008.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 11 mi44 min W 20 G 23 47°F 1007.9 hPa (+2.9)
CPVM2 11 mi44 min 48°F 26°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 12 mi34 min WNW 21 G 25 47°F 2 ft1008.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi44 min NW 26 G 30 47°F 54°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 14 mi44 min NW 13 G 17 47°F 55°F1007.9 hPa (+2.6)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi44 min WNW 25 G 29 48°F 52°F1007.8 hPa (+2.7)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi74 min WNW 9.9 47°F 1008 hPa27°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 27 mi44 min NW 7 G 20 47°F 49°F1009.5 hPa (+1.9)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 37 mi34 min NNW 25 G 31 50°F 3 ft
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 42 mi34 min WNW 16 G 23 47°F 1007.4 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi44 min 49°F 51°F1008.8 hPa (+2.7)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi44 min NNW 26 G 33 49°F 1008.9 hPa (+2.9)

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD10 mi59 minWNW 14 G 2410.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F26°F49%1009.5 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD10 mi50 minWNW 15 G 2810.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F26°F46%1008.1 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD15 mi64 minWNW 17 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F30°F50%1007.8 hPa
College Park Airport, MD19 mi58 minNW 9 G 1610.00 miOvercast46°F24°F43%1008.8 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD20 mi59 minW 18 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy48°F30°F50%1008.1 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD23 mi48 minWNW 15 G 2510.00 miOvercast46°F24°F42%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
Last 24hr--------------W7W5NW8NW9NW10
1 day agoSE5CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmW336W4W15
2 days agoN5N4N4CalmW3NW3N6N5N5N4N5NE8NE8NE6N5CalmCalmNW3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE6

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Point, Severn River, Maryland
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Cedar Point
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Sun -- 12:59 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:53 AM EST     0.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:50 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:01 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:40 PM EST     0.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Sun -- 03:21 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:51 AM EST     0.55 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:22 AM EST     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:00 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:40 PM EST     1.10 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:00 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:05 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.