Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Arden on the Severn, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 7:07PM Thursday September 20, 2018 4:21 AM EDT (08:21 UTC) Moonrise 4:02PMMoonset 1:25AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 134 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
Overnight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 134 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the waters through Thursday before moving offshore Friday. A cold front will approach from the great lakes this weekend, then stall near or just south of the waters into early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters late Friday into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arden on the Severn, MD
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location: 39.07, -76.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 200811 aaa
afdlwx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
411 am edt Thu sep 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the region through today before
moving into the western atlantic on Friday. A cold front will
approach from the northwest Friday before stalling near or over
the region through the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Quick update to add dense fog advisory for portions of the
central virginia piedmont and shenandoah valley until 9 am.

Previous discussion follows.

Ridge of high pressure extends from the canadian maritimes down
through the mid-atlantic states this morning and this will
gradually shift eastward through the day today. Light easterly
flow has developed over de nj early this morning, and this is
helping to transport some low stratus westward. As of 3 am, it
has reached roughly the chesapeake bay, and some additional
progress westward is likely, probably nearing or reaching i-95
before gradually mixing out during the daylight hours. There's
also some low level moisture trapped beneath the subsidence
inversion which is leading to a redevelopment of some strato-
cumulus across central va. In addition, with light surface winds
and some radiational cooling, areas of fog have developed and
may be locally dense at times. Will continue to evaluate the
need for any dense fog headlines.

Otherwise, a mix of Sun and scattered to broken clouds are
expected through the day with developing light easterly flow.

Some limited instability will be available by this afternoon,
and with terrain circulations and light upslope flow as the low
level easterly flow develops, some isolated to scattered
showers thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
central blue ridge, central shenandoah valley, and
allegheny potomac highlands. Some locally heavy rain is possible
and with slow movement and low flash flood guidance, will have
to monitor for any flood concerns.

Highs today will range from the upper 70s to low 80s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday night
High pressure will slide offshore tonight, promoting
southeasterly low level flow. This will continue to feed in low
level marine air into the region, leading to low stratus across
the region, and possibly some fog drizzle or light showers,
mainly near and west of the blue ridge. Lows in the 60s to
around 70f.

A frontal system will approach on Friday, with a warm front
likely getting hung up along the appalachians, and a cold front
entering the ohio valley. Low clouds to start the day will
eventually mix out with highs reaching into the 80s. A few
isolated to scattered showers thunderstorms become possible in
the afternoon west of the blue ridge.

The cold front will cross into the region Friday night and
will likely be over the area Saturday morning. Some decaying
upstream convection may be able to make it into portions of the
area Friday evening night, but it remains uncertain at this
time. Lows in the 60s to around 70f.

The front will then settle near or just south of the area by
later Saturday and serve as a focus for additional convection
Saturday afternoon and evening as upper level energy moves along
the frontal zone. Central virginia has the highest chances of
seeing activity at this time, with heavy rain and possible flood
risk being the main concerns. Highs from 75-82f.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
An unsettled weather pattern is expected in the long term as a front
will be stalled near or over our area Sunday into Monday with zonal
flow aloft. At the same time a high pressure will be building over
new england, resulting in a cold air damming pattern over us. This
will result in below normal high temperatures for Sunday, with the
high temperature reaching the 60s over our region -colder at
higher elevations. Showers and thunderstorms are also possible
near the front, however if the front settles further south from
us, the higher chance of precipitation will be over the southern
part of our cwa.

The front will be lifted as a warm front on Tuesday by a low
pressure that will be tracking NE over the northern great lakes.

Southerly flow settles behind the warm and ahead of the cold front
associated with this low. Warm and moist air advection along
with diurnal heating can produce additional showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday, along with a warming trend.

An amplified mid to upper level trough will be pushing east into the
eastern CONUS Tuesday into Thursday while a surface front
approaches the mid-atlantic region. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible again on Wednesday before the front moves through.

Gfs and the euro suggest that the front will move through
Wednesday night with a high pressure building behind it on
Thursday.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
Low stratus this morning will likely affect mtn bwi and
possibly dca for several hours as easterly flow transports low
level moisture westward from nj de. Ceilings will be MVFR in any
stratus. Further west, areas of fog will affect mrb cho, and may
be locally dense with ifr lifr likely. Fog will lift during the
morning hours, but low stratus may take until the afternoon
untilVFR develops area-wide.

With low level easterly flow continuing tonight into Friday, low
ceilings will return tonight with MVFR (potential ifr) forecast
overnight into Friday morning. Some fog drizzle also possible,
mainly cho mrb. Conditions will slowly improve Friday.

A cold front will then approach the terminals late Friday and
Friday night, increasing rain chances, although mainly mrb.

There will be a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm as a
frontal zone remains near the region through the weekend. Sub-
vfr conditions are possible at times into early next week.

Marine
Sub SCA conditions should prevail through the day today. There
may be a brief period of near-sca conditions this evening in
southeasterly flow, but have held below criteria at this time.

Sca conditions may then return Friday evening and night as
southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front approaching from
the great lakes and pennsylvania.

The cold front will move across the waters on Saturday, then
stall nearby through early next week.

Periods of small craft advisory may be needed between Sunday
and Tuesday as mixing increases over the waters while several
boundaries are near over our region.

Tides coastal flooding
Onshore flow will cause tidal anomalies to increase over the
next couple days, possibly persisting through the weekend. This
will likely lead to a renewed threat for coastal flooding,
especially given increasing astronomical tides. The first threat
of minor flooding will occur tonight at sensitive sites.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... Dense fog advisory until 9 am edt this morning for vaz025>027-
029-030-037>040-050-051-056-502.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mm
near term... Mm
short term... Mm
long term... Imr
aviation... Mm imr
marine... Mm imr
tides coastal flooding... Mm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi33 min 71°F 1017.1 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 10 mi31 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 72°F 1017.9 hPa
FSNM2 11 mi33 min 69°F 1017.7 hPa
CPVM2 11 mi33 min 73°F 72°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 11 mi33 min 70°F 1017.7 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 14 mi39 min 71°F 79°F1017.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi21 min ESE 8 G 8 72°F 76°F1018.4 hPa (+0.0)72°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 20 mi33 min 68°F 74°F1018 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 21 mi111 min Calm 62°F 1017 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 27 mi39 min 73°F 73°F1017.7 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 37 mi31 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 74°F 1017.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi33 min 71°F 79°F1018.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi39 min 74°F 1018.1 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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E10
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W6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi27 minNNE 38.00 miFair74°F68°F82%1017.7 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD10 mi33 minN 03.00 miFair63°F62°F100%1018.6 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD10 mi27 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds66°F64°F93%1017.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD15 mi2.9 hrsN 07.00 miFair70°F68°F94%1017.6 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi27 minno data mi71°F63°F76%1017.7 hPa
College Park Airport, MD19 mi33 minN 03.00 miFair65°F64°F98%1017.6 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD20 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair68°F66°F94%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW5NW6NW8NW6N10N11N9N8NE8N8N4E7NE4CalmN3CalmCalmN4N6N3CalmN4N3
1 day agoS4S7S6S6S7S54SW63N5N8NW9N8NW4CalmNW4NW4NW4NW7NW4NW5NW7NW5NW5
2 days agoE5E5E5E7SE10SE12SE12SE11S10
G21
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S10SE10SE11SE11SE10S11
G20
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G17
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S8S10S8S10S4

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Point, Severn River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.