Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elizabeth, WV
April 30, 2024 5:28 AM EDT (09:28 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:26 AM Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 1:17 AM Moonset 10:32 AM |
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 300807 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 407 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend Wednesday into Friday. Warm and unsettled this weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM Tuesday...
Slow moving, weak cold front to our west will gradually inch closer this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of the front will affect the area today as the front knocks on the door. Not expecting severe weather with this system but heavy downpours are possible today with PWATs between 1.00" and 1.30".
WPC subsequently has the area outlooked in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. After the recent dry spell though most of the rain will be needed and only expecting localized water issues for locations that receive repeated rounds of heavy rain.
High temperatures are trending downward due to increased cloud cover and moisture today. Going to see quite a cool down today with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area.
Models are showing weak lapse rates, LI, MUCAPE and SBCAPE due to the weaker nature of this front. However, there looks enough 0-3km instability to manifest some isolated thunderstorms or rumbles of thunder within some heavier showers this afternoon.
The front briefly stalls this evening, bisecting the forecast area, before lifting north as a warm front overnight into Wednesday morning. Showers will taper off early this evening as a result, becoming more centralized along the mountains overnight before pushing out early Wednesday morning.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM Tuesday...
High pressure brings dry weather Wednesday through Thursday night. Dead low level flow in the wake of the wet weather in the near term may result in areas of fog and stratus Wednesday morning, especially east of the Ohio River. However, the incoming air mass is quite dry from just above the surface on up, so any morning clouds and fog will burn off, giving way to sunshine for the balance of the day.
A weakening cold front approaches the middle Ohio Valley from the northwest Wednesday night, but its associated mid-upper level short wave trough passes north of the area as mid-upper level ridging builds over the area. Nothing more than a few clouds are forecast for portions of southeast Ohio Wednesday night, and weak high pressure reestablishes for Thursday.
The high drifts east of the area Thursday night, giving way to light southerly low level flow, but mid- upper level ridging maintains dry weather.
Central guidance reflects temperatures remaining above normal Wednesday, and then a return to very warm weather on Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 AM Tuesday...
To describe the weather heading into the weekend as being affected by a cold front moving into the area is at odds with the overall zeitgeist of the weather pattern heading into the long term, in which we are moving into a warm and humid regime as we move into the month of May.
The cold front does bring an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday, with some diurnal weakening overnight Friday night, but it washes out on Saturday, as its associated mid-upper level short wave trough dampens and lifts out to the northeast, and mid-upper level ridging rebuilds over the area.
The air mass behind the cold front never really makes inroads into the forecast area. Rather, warm and somewhat humid air remains in place, and with weak mid-upper level ripples moving through, the chance for showers, highest in the afternoon and evening, when thunderstorms are also possible, continues into next week.
Showers and thunderstorms not arriving or forming into Friday afternoon allows morning heating and a very warm day until interrupted by rain. High temperatures are suppressed a bit Saturday by the high chance for rain, and to a lesser extent beyond that, but remain modestly above normal. Lows also remain above normal, as we settle into lower 60s to lower 80s for diurnal ranges across the lowlands, and lower 50s to mid 60s over the higher ridges, early next week.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 120 AM Tuesday...
VFR through most of the morning (until ~13-15Z) with CIGs gradually becoming more OVC from west to east. There remains the chance for some fog at EKN, but not expecting much restrictions as wind and cloud cover will likely interfere.
CIGs will start lowering by ~12Z as showers start approaching our western periphery. CIGs look to remain mostly VFR through the day, albeit low-end category, but some pockets of MVFR will affect most sites especially in the afternoon. There does remain the chance for some isolated thunderstorms from morning through afternoon with heating so left VCTS in at most sites to cover the possibility; more certainty remains in the afternoon hours, especially for western most sites.
Will start to see showers and thunderstorms tapering off from west to east by ~00Z, but chances will remain in the mountains overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. MVFR or IFR CIG restrictions will likely remain across this area as well. Dense fog will be a strong possibility at most sites Tuesday night into Wednesday with recent rainfall across the area.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog at EKN manifests to be more dense than forecasted. Shower and thunderstorm timing and location could vary from forecast. Ceilings could be lower than forecasted.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 04/30/24 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible due to dense fog Wednesday morning.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 407 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend Wednesday into Friday. Warm and unsettled this weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM Tuesday...
Slow moving, weak cold front to our west will gradually inch closer this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of the front will affect the area today as the front knocks on the door. Not expecting severe weather with this system but heavy downpours are possible today with PWATs between 1.00" and 1.30".
WPC subsequently has the area outlooked in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. After the recent dry spell though most of the rain will be needed and only expecting localized water issues for locations that receive repeated rounds of heavy rain.
High temperatures are trending downward due to increased cloud cover and moisture today. Going to see quite a cool down today with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area.
Models are showing weak lapse rates, LI, MUCAPE and SBCAPE due to the weaker nature of this front. However, there looks enough 0-3km instability to manifest some isolated thunderstorms or rumbles of thunder within some heavier showers this afternoon.
The front briefly stalls this evening, bisecting the forecast area, before lifting north as a warm front overnight into Wednesday morning. Showers will taper off early this evening as a result, becoming more centralized along the mountains overnight before pushing out early Wednesday morning.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM Tuesday...
High pressure brings dry weather Wednesday through Thursday night. Dead low level flow in the wake of the wet weather in the near term may result in areas of fog and stratus Wednesday morning, especially east of the Ohio River. However, the incoming air mass is quite dry from just above the surface on up, so any morning clouds and fog will burn off, giving way to sunshine for the balance of the day.
A weakening cold front approaches the middle Ohio Valley from the northwest Wednesday night, but its associated mid-upper level short wave trough passes north of the area as mid-upper level ridging builds over the area. Nothing more than a few clouds are forecast for portions of southeast Ohio Wednesday night, and weak high pressure reestablishes for Thursday.
The high drifts east of the area Thursday night, giving way to light southerly low level flow, but mid- upper level ridging maintains dry weather.
Central guidance reflects temperatures remaining above normal Wednesday, and then a return to very warm weather on Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 AM Tuesday...
To describe the weather heading into the weekend as being affected by a cold front moving into the area is at odds with the overall zeitgeist of the weather pattern heading into the long term, in which we are moving into a warm and humid regime as we move into the month of May.
The cold front does bring an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday, with some diurnal weakening overnight Friday night, but it washes out on Saturday, as its associated mid-upper level short wave trough dampens and lifts out to the northeast, and mid-upper level ridging rebuilds over the area.
The air mass behind the cold front never really makes inroads into the forecast area. Rather, warm and somewhat humid air remains in place, and with weak mid-upper level ripples moving through, the chance for showers, highest in the afternoon and evening, when thunderstorms are also possible, continues into next week.
Showers and thunderstorms not arriving or forming into Friday afternoon allows morning heating and a very warm day until interrupted by rain. High temperatures are suppressed a bit Saturday by the high chance for rain, and to a lesser extent beyond that, but remain modestly above normal. Lows also remain above normal, as we settle into lower 60s to lower 80s for diurnal ranges across the lowlands, and lower 50s to mid 60s over the higher ridges, early next week.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 120 AM Tuesday...
VFR through most of the morning (until ~13-15Z) with CIGs gradually becoming more OVC from west to east. There remains the chance for some fog at EKN, but not expecting much restrictions as wind and cloud cover will likely interfere.
CIGs will start lowering by ~12Z as showers start approaching our western periphery. CIGs look to remain mostly VFR through the day, albeit low-end category, but some pockets of MVFR will affect most sites especially in the afternoon. There does remain the chance for some isolated thunderstorms from morning through afternoon with heating so left VCTS in at most sites to cover the possibility; more certainty remains in the afternoon hours, especially for western most sites.
Will start to see showers and thunderstorms tapering off from west to east by ~00Z, but chances will remain in the mountains overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. MVFR or IFR CIG restrictions will likely remain across this area as well. Dense fog will be a strong possibility at most sites Tuesday night into Wednesday with recent rainfall across the area.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog at EKN manifests to be more dense than forecasted. Shower and thunderstorm timing and location could vary from forecast. Ceilings could be lower than forecasted.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 04/30/24 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible due to dense fog Wednesday morning.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPKB MIDOHIO VALLEY RGNL,WV | 22 sm | 35 min | WSW 04 | Mostly Cloudy | 63°F | 55°F | 77% | 29.90 |
Charleston, WV,
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