Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cape St. Claire, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:45PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 6:31 AM EST (11:31 UTC) Moonrise 11:10AMMoonset 9:39PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 336 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Rest of the overnight..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S late. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming n. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 336 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Surface high pressure will reside over new england through Thursday as a weak boundary lingers just south of the waters. Low pressure over the deep south will approach the waters from the southwest late Friday into Saturday, with unsettled weather potentially persisting into Sunday. High pressure will build over the waters early next week. Small craft advisory conditions likely Friday night and into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape St. Claire CDP, MD
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location: 39.09, -76.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 120858
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
358 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build into the area for today and tonight. A low
pressure system will move through the region on Thursday. An area of
low pressure will track through the deep south on Friday and into
the mid atlantic by this weekend. High pressure will then return
early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Cold front continues to work its way south across the region through
daybreak. Some light snow will continue across parts of the southern
poconos, while scattered flurries are possible from around i-80 to
around i-195. Little in the way of snow accumulation is possible,
and mainly confined to the higher elevations of the poconos and far
nw nj.

Weak high pressure builds in south of the region behind the cold
front and moves off the mid-atlantic coast late in the day. Skies
clear out this morning, and should be sunny for most of the day.

Highs will be a few degrees short of normal, generally topping off
in the lower 30s in the poconos to the upper 30s north and west of
the fall line, and in the lower 40s elsewhere.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
High pressure off the mid-atlantic coast continues to drift offshore
this evening. Meanwhile, weak surface low pressure with a mid-level
closed low and several strong shortwaves passing through the great
lakes will move into western ny pa after midnight tonight, then this
low passes north of the region during the day Thursday. Some light
snow will move into western portions of the forecast area prior to
daybreak Thursday, and then snow moves into most of the region
Thursday morning.

Going through Thursday afternoon, winds become east-southeast.

Onshore flow will allow for warmer air to filter into the region,
and snow mixes with and changes to rain from south to north during
the afternoon. Temps should remain cold enough in the southern
poconos to keep precip all snow.

For the most part, less than an inch of snow will fall along and
north of the i-95 corridor, but with colder temperatures in the
poconos, up to an inch or so of snow accumulation is possible there.

Highs on Thursday warm into the low to mid 40s in SE nj and
delmarva, and in the upper 30s to low 40s in most of northern nj and
southeast pa. Highs in the southern poconos and far northern nj will
top off in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Thursday night... An upper low open trough will exit to the east of
the region Thursday night. Model soundings show moist low levels
(dry upper levels so no ice in the snow growth zone), especially
across the southern poconos and portions of the lehigh valley and
northwestern new jersey. Could see some patchy drizzle occur through
the evening and into early Friday and have added it to the forecast.

With temperatures dropping, some areas may see some patchy freezing
drizzle.

Friday through Sunday... The next system of the extended starts to
develop in the deep south. This system starts to track up into the
southeastern united states by Friday night. As the low makes its way
to the northeast, a secondary low forms along the carolina coast.

The gfs, canadian, and the ECMWF show this low developing out ahead
of the stronger low to its west. But that is where the similarities
start to end. The ECMWF takes the coastal low and makes it more
dominant, weakening the inland low. This solution would have more
rain impact us from Friday night through Saturday and leave Sunday
mostly dry as the inland low tracks to the east and offshore (with
the center of the low remaining to our south). The canadian keeps
the inland low suppressed to the south as the associated upper low
cuts off. The coastal low it moves quickly to the northeast, drying
us out by later Saturday, leaving Sunday dry. The GFS is by far the
wettest of these three models. It takes the coastal low up into our
area Friday night and Saturday and then takes the inland low on a
more northerly track into our area by later Saturday into Sunday.

With such diverse output from the this model run, confidence remains
fairly low. We continue to keep the highest chances for rain from
Friday night through Saturday and then only leave a slight chance
for some rain on Sunday. One good thing is all the guidance is
showing a warming trend so confidence is growing that we will see
mostly, if not all, rain with this event.

Monday through Tuesday... This period looks to be fairly quiet. The
gfs shows a cold front dropping down from the northwest later on
Monday while the ECMWF keeps any boundaries to the north of our
area. The GFS also shows a much deeper and stronger closed upper low
crossing the area while the ECMWF doesn't show much more than decent
trough rotating through. A few light showers may occur later Monday
but confidence is low as the models have widely differing opinions
on what to expect. For now, we will keep Monday dry and see if
things clear up a bit over the next few days. However, even if a
boundary moves through and is mostly dry, one thing the models are
consistent with this far out is that colder air will be arriving for
Tuesday. High pressure builds into the area on Tuesday and will
persist through the middle of the week.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Early this morning (until 12z)... Some flurries possible at krdg kabe
until 12z.VFR CIGS around 5000 feet. Lgt vrb winds.

Today (12z today until 00z Thursday)...VFR few250. NW winds 10 kt or
less.

Tonight...VFR initially. CIGS lowering to around 5000 feet by
daybreak Thursday. Some light snow possible at krdg kabe after 09z
with MVFR or lower conditions. Lgt vrb winds.

Thursday... MVFR ifr conditions in light snow in the morning, then
snow mixes with and changes to rain from south to north during the
day. Precip may stay as snow in krdg kabe for most of the day. Light
east-southeast winds.

Outlook...

Thursday night... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Light east winds.

Patchy drizzle freezing drizzle possible at kabe krdg.

Friday... MainlyVFR early with conditions deteriorating towards
midday. Rain will develop by late morning and overspread the
terminals through the afternoon. East to southeast winds less than
10 knots.

Friday night and Saturday... MVFR ifr conditions expected. Periods of
moderate to heavy rain. East to northeast winds around 5 to 10
knots, becoming more northerly later Saturday.

Sunday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Northeast winds around 10
knots.

Marine
Sca remains up on the ocean waters until early this afternoon due to
nw winds gusting to 25 kt along with 5-6 ft seas. By this afternoon,
winds diminish, and seas subside for the rest of the day. Sub-sca
conditions on tap tonight through Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions
expected. Southeast winds will increase through Friday and may
approach advisory levels late.

Friday night and Sunday... Small craft conditions likely. Seas will
build reaching 5 feet on the southern waters by late Friday night.

Winds will increase and exceed 25 knots with gale force gusts
possible late Saturday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
anz450>455.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Meola
aviation... Meola mps
marine... Meola mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 7 mi31 min 38°F 19°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 10 mi31 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9 38°F 40°F1020.9 hPa (+2.3)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 10 mi31 min 37°F 1020.4 hPa (+2.1)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 13 mi31 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 38°F 1020.7 hPa (+2.2)
FSNM2 13 mi37 min W 1.9 G 5.1 38°F 1020.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi31 min W 8 G 8 38°F 41°F1021.6 hPa (+2.0)22°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 17 mi37 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 40°F 45°F1020.2 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 29 mi121 min Calm 27°F 1020 hPa26°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi31 min S 1.9 G 2.9 36°F 40°F1021.4 hPa (+2.1)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 39 mi37 min 39°F 39°F1020.5 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 42 mi31 min W 1 G 1.9 32°F 39°F1020.4 hPa (+1.9)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 48 mi121 min Calm 32°F 1019 hPa25°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi31 min NW 8 G 13 39°F 1021.5 hPa (+1.9)

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD8 mi51 minW 710.00 miOvercast37°F24°F60%1020.7 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD10 mi37 minW 310.00 miOvercast39°F19°F46%1020.7 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD18 mi61 minN 010.00 miOvercast34°F28°F81%1021 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD18 mi37 minN 010.00 miOvercast35°F21°F57%1020.5 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD19 mi37 minno data mi39°F21°F48%1020.5 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD22 mi49 minN 010.00 miOvercast30°F28°F93%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from BWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3CalmCalmW4W11W9W8NW10NW6CalmS4SW4SW4W5W7W6CalmSW4SW3CalmW4SW4Calm
1 day agoN6NW5N6N6N7N5N55NW9N6N6N3NW33W3NW3NW6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3Calm
2 days agoN3CalmE4NE6--NE6NE56N4N454NE54NE6CalmN5N8N3N3N5N4N55

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay), Maryland
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Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay)
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Wed -- 04:49 AM EST     4.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:51 AM EST     4.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:39 PM EST     4.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:38 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:13 PM EST     5.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.94.74.54.34.14.14.24.44.54.64.74.64.54.34.1444.14.34.64.95.15.25.1

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Wed -- 02:41 AM EST     -0.97 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:23 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM EST     0.57 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:12 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:43 PM EST     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:09 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:42 PM EST     0.77 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:39 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:54 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.7-0.9-1-0.8-0.5-0.10.20.50.60.50.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-00.30.50.70.80.60.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.