Sunday, June16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cape St. Claire, MD

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Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:35PM Sunday June 16, 2019 12:30 PM EDT (16:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:01PMMoonset 4:09AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 1036 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers late this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt early in the evening. Waves 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely. A chance of tstms through the night, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. A chance of tstms through the night, then a chance of showers after midnight. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1036 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will approach the area from the north tonight. It will stall out across the area and linger through the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape St. Claire CDP, MD
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location: 39.09, -76.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 161324
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
924 am edt Sun jun 16 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will continue moving farther offshore today as a cold
front approaches from the north. This front will stall across the
northern mid-atlantic and stick around through much of the upcoming
work week. Several waves of low pressure are expected to develop
along this boundary and pass across the region leading to several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms through late this week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
930 am update: the earlier showers have mostly dissipated over
our region, and areas from the western suburbs of philly to
central and southern nj to much of DELMARVA have mostly clear
skies with the exception of high cirrus clouds. I adjusted the
sky and pops through the remainder of the morning to match these
trends. That being said, the bigger concern is what implication
this may have for the afternoon evening convection. I am
concerned that the earlier clearing will expand the risk of
severe storms further north. However, extensive clouds are just
west of the region and appear to be propagating east. Further,
despite the clearing, temperatures are still very close to the
forecast and most short term guidance. Thus, I didn't make any
significant changes to the forecast this afternoon and evening
at this time.

Previous discussion...

several weak perturbations are moving into through the northeast
early this morning. One is moving through ny pa at this time, with
an area of light rain showers generally affecting areas north of i-
78 early this morning. In general, models are handling the southern
extent of the precipitation poorly, and made earlier adjustments to
the forecast to increase pops southward to the urban corridor.

Precipitation amounts with this first batch of precipitation should
be a tenth of an inch or less (highest amounts in northern new
jersey).

A second stronger convectively-maintained perturbation is in ohio,
with heavier and more extensive precipitation near downstream of it.

This precipitation has moved into northern central pennsylvania,
perhaps a little south of where most convection-allowing models had
placed it, with the WRF simulations seemingly handling it best and
the hrrr handling it worst. The track of this perturbation will be
east-northeast, which should allow the heaviest precipitation to
move just north of the area this morning. However, expect some
precipitation northwest of the fall line at least and possibly a
little farther southeast given radar trends. As a result, increased
pops this morning for about the northwest half of the CWA and
trended it a little faster given what has transpired so far
overnight.

A third perturbation arrives late today, and this is the one that
should produce stronger convection. There are two main forecast
questions associated with this perturbation. Where will it track,
and how will the downstream environment destabilize? Regarding the
first question, the 00z NAM tracks it along the mason-dixon line.

The 00z GFS tracks it across northern virginia eastward to delmarva.

The 00z ECMWF is much farther north (generally through pa nj). These
differences are critical because convection will likely develop in
close proximity to this vort max. Hi-res models are similarly
variable, with hrrr runs developing strong convection anywhere from
eastern pa central nj to central southern md eastward through
delmarva.

Additionally, extent of destabilization is questionable given the
showers occurring in the northern half of the area this morning.

This will undoubtedly mitigate diabatic heating to some degree
today, but it is unclear how far to the south this will occur. My
suspicion is that it is a little farther south than consensus given
this morning's trends, but this will ultimately depend on the
precipitation moving into through pennsylvania this morning. Where
the environment remains relatively unperturbed by the predecessor
precipitation clouds, bufkit soundings show MLCAPE approaching 1000-
1500 j kg this afternoon in an adequately sheared (30-35 kts deep-
layer bulk wind difference) environment. Low-level helicity will
also improve through the day, with hodographs exhibiting modest
curvature (0-3 km SRH approaching 150 j kg by evening). Where
convection develops, mixed convective modes may occur initially with
all types of severe possible, though convection-allowing guidance is
tending to develop a mesoscale convective system rather quickly.

Timing of the stronger storms looks to be after 3 pm and may peak
during the evening hours based on the latest hrrr NAM nest
simulations.

Currently, think the best chances for severe storms this afternoon
are generally south of a reading to trenton to asbury park corridor,
and have included enhanced wording in the public forecasts with this
update. Heavy rainfall is certainly possible with stronger storms,
but today's convection looks fairly progressive as well, so not
expecting a widespread flooding threat.

Used a consensus blend for the temperature forecast today, given the
uncertainty with cloud cover precipitation. Generally, this lowered
temperatures about 1-2 degrees from the previous forecast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
615 am update: convection-allowing models have shown less and
less of the convective regeneration during the early overnight
hours discussed below, so this is becoming a lower-probability
solution, as suspected. However, there are indications that if
a mesoscale convective system moves through the area this
evening, there may be some training of convection on both the
north and south sides. This will require watching as the event
unfolds to determine locations at greatest risk for heavy
rainfall and any potential flooding.

Previous discussion...

main forecast concern tonight is the ultimate evolution of strong
convection developing this afternoon evening...

generally, models (coarser and hi-res) are indicating storms
congealing into a mesoscale convective system that moves through
portions of the CWA during the evening before progressing offshore
overnight. Where this occurs is a big question mark (see the near-
term forecast discussion), but another concern is the tendency for
some models to regenerate precipitation upstream of the primary mcs
overnight. The NAM nest and WRF simulations are both depicting a
second round of convection developing near and somewhat north of
where the first round of storms moves through. This appears to be
tied to low-level warm advection downstream of a fourth (yes,
fourth) perturbation approaching the area late. This prompted me to
keep pops rather high through about 06z before trending them to
slight or low-chance values thereafter.

Should this second round of storms occur, heavy rainfall becomes a
bigger concern. I am not biting on this potential yet, since models
are not exactly agreeable on the first round of convection (much
less the second). However, will need to monitor convection-allowing
model trends closely today to determine if this is a plausible
threat.

Lows tonight should be in the 60s to around 70.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Overview: generally and unsettled pattern this week and into next
weekend with a decent westerly flow aloft between a persistent
low trough across eastern canada and high pressure across the gulf of
mexico and the SE states. Disturbances from the plains will continue
east across the ohio valley and then across the middle atlantic.

This will bring rounds of showers and tstms with the possibility of
both heavy rains and some severe weather also. The timing of the
systems vary from model to model and from run to run, so we will
update each day with the latest pop QPF trends and not get too
specific at the greater time ranges, since the models struggle to
remain consistent at these time ranges.

Precipitation: overnight, we have reduced pops for the first part of
Monday and increased then for later Monday and Monday night. This is
shaping up to be a period of excessive rains across some part of our
cwa. The nam GFS seem to be favoring the DELMARVA region while the
latest ec and cmc show the greater totals across pa and into NRN nj.

The SPC also placed parts of the CWA in a slight risk for severe
weather for Monday also.

Another period for possible showers tstms is Tue night into wed
morning, so we kept the high chc low likely pops for this period.

Beyond that, few changes were made, except to improve the look of t
he maps between the offices. Mostly chc pops with the wavy front
still nearby.

Temperatures: generally at or slightly above normal thru the period.

Monday will probably be the warmest day of the week, but right now
the differences between the days is only 1 or 2 degrees. Highs
mostly in the low mid 80s for most areas. A trend towards
higher readings will begin towards next weekend. Overnight lows
will be generally above normal with frequent clouds expected.

Aviation 13z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... GenerallyVFR with at least a slight chance of showers this
morning near north of the philly terminals (with negligible impacts
expected). However, chances for stronger storms (and sub-vfr
conditions as well as strong erratic winds) increase this afternoon,
though location timing is a very low-confidence forecast at this
point. Think the threat is high enough for thunder mention at the
terminals late this afternoon, with fine-tuning of the tafs to be
expected once the convective evolution becomes clearer. Winds
generally southwesterly 7 to 15 kts with stronger gusts in the
afternoon.

Tonight... Chances for storms continue during the evening hours but
are expected to diminish after midnight. However, there is a chance
storms could linger for a while longer, especially at ilg miv acy.

GenerallyVFR outside of storms. Southwest winds near below 10 kts.

Low confidence.

Outlook...

Monday Monday night...VFR during the morning, then showers and
tstms with lower CIGS vsbys overnight.

Tue... Early showers tstms then improving conditions.

Wed thu... MostlyVFR but sct tstms with lower conditions at
times.

Marine
Seas will remain near above 5 feet today on the atlantic waters,
with southwest winds likely gusting to 20 to 25 kts this afternoon.

Models have trended a little longer with elevated seas, so have
extended the advisory for the new jersey waters through 10 pm. The
advisory for the delaware atlantic waters continues until 6 pm. Sub-
advisory conditions are expected on delaware bay through tonight.

A chance of storms exists on the waters this afternoon and tonight.

Some of the storms could be strong severe, with erratic strong wind
gusts and locally higher waves possible in their proximity.

Outlook...

mostly sub-sca conditions. The main hazard will be sct tstms
with higher winds and seas. Mon night and Tue night wed. Are
periods that have better chc for tstms.

Rip currents...

a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents
exists today, as south to southwest winds increase to around 20
kts with higher gusts and seas remain elevated (3 to 6 feet).

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
anz450>453.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz454-
455.

Synopsis... Staarmann
near term... Cms johnson
short term... Cms
long term... O'hara
aviation... Cms o'hara
marine... Cms o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44063 - Annapolis 10 mi25 min ESE 9.7 G 12 74°F 72°F1012.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi31 min SSE 11 G 12 74°F 71°F1013.6 hPa (+0.0)66°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 37 mi55 min SW 9.7 G 12 76°F 1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD8 mi51 minSSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F64°F58%1012.9 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD10 mi37 minSSW 610.00 miFair0°F0°F%1012.8 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD18 mi46 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F66°F65%1012.9 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD18 mi37 minSW 910.00 miOvercast82°F63°F53%1012.1 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD19 mi37 minno data mi79°F62°F56%1012.4 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD22 mi49 minSSW 10 G 1710.00 miFair79°F66°F65%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from BWI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay), Maryland
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Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:05 AM EDT     4.48 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:43 AM EDT     6.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:04 PM EDT     4.59 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.54.64.85.25.65.96.26.26.15.85.55.24.94.74.64.74.85.15.35.35.35.14.94.7

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:08 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:55 AM EDT     1.29 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:27 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:45 AM EDT     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:50 PM EDT     0.51 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:16 PM EDT     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.10.40.91.21.31.10.80.3-0.3-0.8-1.1-1.1-1-0.6-0.20.20.40.50.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.