Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cape St. Claire, MD

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Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:55PM Monday August 20, 2018 11:04 AM EDT (15:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:02PMMoonset 12:17AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 1035 Am Edt Mon Aug 20 2018
Rest of today..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1035 Am Edt Mon Aug 20 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build to the north today while a front remains stalled to the south. A warm front will lift northward through the waters on Tuesday. A cold front will sweep to the east on Wednesday followed by modified canadian high pressure taking hold through week's end. A small craft advisory may be needed Tuesday night and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape St. Claire, MD
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location: 39.09, -76.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 201322
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
922 am edt Mon aug 20 2018

Synopsis
A stationary front remains situated south of DELMARVA as high
pressure noses in from the north. The high moves offshore on
Tuesday as that stationary front returns north as a warm front
Tuesday night. A cold front moves across the region on
Wednesday. High pressure builds in from the north and west to
close out the work week. The high then moves offshore early in
the weekend as a cold front approaches from the west late in the
weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
915 am update: no major changes to the forecast at this time.

Considerable low cloud cover persists with some areas of clear
breaks developing. Overall though, still expect a partly to
mostly cloudy day with some showers and storms possible this
afternoon across the southern delmarva.

630 am update: have modified temperatures and sky cover to
account for current observations. As usual, models are too
aggressive thinning out the clouds in northeast low-level flow,
so have slowed the improving sky cover considerably with this
update. Otherwise, forecast is in good shape.

Previous discussion...

a rather tricky forecast today, as the region will be
downstream of several perturbations ejecting from a fairly
potent vort MAX moving slowly through the central plains of the
u.S. The strongest of these perturbations will be approaching
the central mid-atlantic during peak heating, and high-
resolution guidance is suggesting development of diurnally-
enhanced convection just downstream. The trek of the
perturbation is mainly to the south of the cwa, but large-scale
lift will brush the southern portions of the area today. Will be
interesting to see if central southern DELMARVA are able to tap
into some of the instability (albeit elevated) looming to the
south of the front in the central southern mid-atlantic. Several
recent simulations of the hrrr suggest this potential exists,
but the NAM nest and the WRF simulations are a little less
aggressive and or farther south with this convective
development.

Nevertheless, given the decent lift in advance of the
perturbation, I increased pops south of dover today and included
a slight chance of thunderstorms based on potential for some
elevated instability to develop. Meanwhile, the current light
rain drizzle in much of the southern half of the area is not
well forecast among the models (nor is it well-sampled from
radar owing to its rather low generation region). Currently,
think the continued advection from the east- northeast will
shunt this area of precip (slowly) southward as it gradually
shrinks in size. This is fairly low confidence, however, and i
think keeping a slight chance of showers (or at least sprinkles)
today is prudent, especially near the coast and south of i-76
(in closer proximity to larger-scale lift and farther from the
growing influence of the surface high nosing southward).

Otherwise, the main story today will be the continued east-
northeast low-level flow in most of the area. There are some
indications (via model soundings) that some drying will occur in
the tropospheric profiles, but the signal is mixed at best.

With this in mind, I was a little more pessimistic than the
consensus sky forecast today, but somewhat more optimistic than
our previous forecast. Think the current overcast will become
more of a partly-to-mostly cloudy sky during the day, with max
temperatures near or slightly below average.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
Tonight, the perturbation moving through the mid-atlantic will
be shifting slowly offshore, with shortwave ridging likely to
enter the region just upstream. However, onshore flow will
continue in this regime, and residual moisture in the low levels
will likely keep chances for low clouds and
drizzle sprinkles light showers around. As a result, I was hard-
pressed to keep pops out of the forecast (especially given what
has transpired early this morning). So the forecast includes
slight chances of light showers for most of the area tonight,
though given model soundings, would not be surprised if little
or nothing occurs... And if anything does occur, it might be in
the form of drizzle or light sprinkles rather than showers.

Of higher confidence is the increase and lowering of clouds
with time, and this will keep temperatures from falling too
much. Given observed temperatures early this morning, I thought
mav met MOS looked a little too warm, so I went a touch below
these numbers, but not by much given the above-mentioned
modifying effects of the increasing lowering clouds.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
High pressure centered over new england and the gulf of maine
slowly lifts to the north and east on Tuesday. Meanwhile, low
pressure moving from the midwest and into the great lakes will
lift the stationary front south of the region north as a warm
front late in the day and at night. Surface dewpoints climb into
the 70s, and this results in pwats increasing to over 2 inches
as most of the region will be in the warm sector ahead of an
approaching cold front.

A pre-frontal trough moves into the region late Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop from west to east, and thunderstorms may produce locally
heavy rain Tuesday night.

The cold front will be through western portions of the forecast
area Wednesday morning, and then the front works its way east
during the day. Meanwhile, a strong h5 trough shortwave combo
moves through the region Wednesday afternoon and evening behind
that front. This will keep at least scattered showers in the
region through the day.

High pressure then builds in from the north and west with a
cooler and much dryer airmass on Thursday. Surface dewpoints
fall into the 50s, and 1000-500 mb thicknesses will fall to
555-560 dam. With highs generally in the 70s to low 80s, it will
feel quite pleasant, especially compared to the warmth and
humidity of most of august so far.

Even lows Wednesday night and Thursday night will fall into the
50s and low 60s, which will be a welcome relief.

High pressure moves over the area Friday, then offshore on
Saturday. Temperatures and humidity levels begin to creep back
up over the weekend, then there may be a return to some
unsettled weather to start of next week.

Aviation 13z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MainlyVFR expected with MVFR CIGS at miv acy as of mid
morning expected to improve toVFR by this afternoon. Winds
east northeast 5 to 15 kts. Moderate confidence.

Tonight... CIGS are expected to deteriorate to MVFR with time,
though exact timing of this is uncertain. Vsbys may stay
somewhat elevated given the thickening cloud cover, however.

Winds east- northeast 5 to 10 kts. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Tuesday night... GenerallyVFR. Showers and
thunderstorms will result in MVFR ifr CIGS vsbys late Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night with locally heavy rain. Patchy fog
possible Tuesday night. SE winds 10 kt or less Tuesday will
become S Tuesday evening, then SW late Tuesday night as a cold
front begins to move through the region.

Wednesday... Lingering showers into the afternoon, then
conditions will improve toVFR. SW winds 10 kt or less will
become NW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon.

Thursday through Friday...VFR. Localized late night and early
morning vsby restrictions in fog are possible. Wind less than 10
knots veering gradually from north to southeast.

Marine
630 am update: seas have lowered below criteria on the northern
new jersey atlantic coastal waters, so have cancelled the
advisory there. Seas remain at or above five feet at buoy 44091
and buoy 44009, so the advisory remains in effect everywhere
else at this time.

Previous discussion...

winds have diminished below advisory criteria on the atlantic
waters early this morning, but seas remain elevated (generally
5-6 feet). Wave guidance has done poorly with the wave forecast
the past 24 hours, underplaying the elevated seas, especially
off the delaware beaches. As such, I increased the seas forecast
by 0.5-1 ft today. This also meant keeping the advisory in
place as is, since I suspect the models are too quickly lowering
seas below criteria.

Northeast winds will continue today around 10 to 20 kts with
gusts expected to remain below criteria. Winds are expected to
become more easterly tonight as they diminish to 5 to 15 kts.

Seas should be below advisory criteria late this afternoon into
tonight.

There is a slight chance of showers (and even a storm off the
delaware coast) today and tonight, with potential visibility
restrictions and locally higher waves winds in their proximity.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday... There is a chance for 25 kt wind gusts
on the ocean waters Tuesday night and Wednesday, along with
seas building close to 5 feet on the ocean waters. Otherwise,
sub-sca conditions expected.

Rip currents...

upgraded the risk of dangerous rip currents to moderate for the
delaware coast and have maintained the moderate risk for the new
jersey coast. With east-northeast winds 10 to 20 kts and
medium-period swell of three or more feet, the rip current risk
appears elevated.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
anz451>455.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Cms fitzsimmons
short term... Cms
long term... Mps
aviation... Cms fitzsimmons mps
marine... Cms mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 7 mi35 min 73°F 69°F
44063 - Annapolis 10 mi35 min E 9.7 G 12 73°F 1020 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 10 mi35 min 73°F 1019.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 10 mi35 min E 6 G 8 72°F 81°F1020.1 hPa
FSNM2 13 mi35 min ENE 9.9 G 12 71°F 1019.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 13 mi35 min ENE 8 G 9.9 71°F 1019.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi65 min ENE 8.9 G 12 72°F 81°F1020.5 hPa (+1.8)68°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 17 mi35 min ESE 6 G 13 71°F 83°F1019.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 29 mi95 min Calm 68°F 1020 hPa65°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 37 mi35 min ENE 12 G 14 75°F 1020.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 39 mi35 min 75°F 83°F1020.2 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi35 min E 2.9 G 8 74°F 81°F1019.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 42 mi35 min E 5.1 G 8.9 71°F 80°F1020.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi35 min E 8.9 G 12 74°F 1019.4 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 48 mi95 min NE 4.1 73°F 1019 hPa67°F

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD8 mi90 minE 910.00 miOvercast73°F68°F83%1019.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD10 mi71 minENE 610.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1020 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD18 mi75 minN 710.00 miOvercast72°F68°F88%1020.7 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD18 mi71 minE 710.00 miOvercast71°F64°F81%1019.7 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD19 mi71 minno data mi72°F64°F79%1020 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD22 mi92 minNE 610.00 miOvercast70°F64°F83%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N6N6N5N8N7N8NE7NE5NE6E8E7E7E6E8E5E6NE4NE5NE7NE4E7E7E7
1 day agoW7W5SW6SW6SW5W5W4W5W4NW4W5W5W6NW6NW6NW9NE4N5N5N5N6N5N6N5
2 days agoSW7S6S10S12S15S13
G16
S6S7S5S7SW5CalmCalmCalmN3NW4CalmSW3SW4SW4W3W4W6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay), Maryland
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Baltimore (Chesapeake Bay)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:01 AM EDT     5.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:17 AM EDT     4.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:05 PM EDT     5.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:47 PM EDT     4.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.35.65.85.85.85.65.45.254.84.74.74.855.15.25.154.84.64.54.54.64.8

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:07 AM EDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:42 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:54 AM EDT     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:54 PM EDT     0.40 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:32 PM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.910.90.70.3-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.30.40.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.