Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:58PM Monday September 25, 2017 12:19 AM EDT (04:19 UTC) Moonrise 11:03AMMoonset 9:28PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 1136 Pm Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Rest of tonight..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1136 Pm Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the northeastern united states through the first part of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday through Thursday as hurricane maria approaches north carolina. Refer to the latest statements from the national hurricane center for up-to-date information on hurricane maria.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, MD
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location: 39.1, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 242256
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
656 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will remain in place through the first part of
the week, then slowly weaken its grip over the area by the
midweek as hurricane maria moves northward through the western
atlantic. A cold front will move through late in the week,
bringing more seasonable temperatures.

Near term through Monday
High pressure across the great lakes extends into the mid
atlantic.

Dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s should set the stage for
tonight, as skies should remain clear and winds will be light.

Low temperature forecasts follow this cue, with perhaps lows
closer to 70 in the inner cities.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
Locally, the synoptic pattern will remain similar through Monday
and Tuesday. Maria turns in the western atlantic, nearing the
outer banks on Monday night, while the ridge overhead becomes
pinched. The only implications to the forecast will be the
extent of clouds spreading inland, and whether there will be
sufficient moisture for any precip. At this point, clouds look
likely blue ridge or i-81 east Monday night into Tuesday. Precip
looks iffy... Perhaps enough for a 20-30 pop east of i-95. Of
course, track changes would lead to changes in these details, so
monitoring maria's progress via NHC would still be wise.

Monday will still be a warm day. The thermal structure may be a
degree or so cooler. By Tuesday, thicknesses will be lower and
insolation less, supporting highs around 80 degrees east of the
blue ridge. Since dewpoints will be the same, low temperature
forecasts will be rather constant through the period.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
First part of the long term period will be determined by
hurricane maria. Guidance suggests that maria will be hovering
just off of the north carolina outer banks Wednesday into
Thursday. This could somewhat increase winds over the
southeastern portion of our cwa, but not expecting them to be
particularly strong, maybe some gusts around 30 mph range in
southern md and over parts of the bay, some showers from outer
rain bands possible as well. The rest of our CWA can expect less
impacts as we will remain in a warm air mass.

Upper trough and its associated cold front should push the hurricane
eastward away from the coast Thursday into Friday. This cold front
will put an end to our above normal temperatures for late september
and a more seasonable air mass will arrive behind it sometime
Thursday or Friday. The FROPA doesn't look that moist, so expecting
just some showers with it.

Another -weaker- cold front approaches on Saturday and high pressure
builds behind it into Sunday.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Vfr flight conditions will prevail through most of the valid
taf period. Early morning fog possible Mon and tue, clipping
mrb and cho. Have kept that risk in the TAF at MVFR. Will also
need to watch for low clouds sneaking inland Monday night-
Tuesday morning.

Clouds will be more prevalent Tuesday. Flight restrictions
possible, depending on what advects inland that early morning.

Some sub-vfr conditions possible Wednesday into Thursday with
maybe some showers around.VFR conditions expected later on
Thursday and into Friday with high pressure building in

Marine
Winds will be light (at or below 10 kt) through Monday. Winds
will generally be from the northeast, with some variation
between north and east. Winds will increase Monday night and
Tuesday as maria nears. At this time small craft conditions
possible in the mid bay Tuesday, and expected Wednesday into
Thursday with hurricane maria nearby. That could change
contingent on the path strength of maria. Consult NHC products
for updates.

Tides coastal flooding
Straits point fell just below minor stage with the latest high
tide. As the Monday morning high tide is astronomically lower
this was dropped.

It's possible that tides will be peaking at the threshold
between caution and minor flood for a couple of cycles.

Eventually, water levels should be rising as maria nears, but
there is ample spread in the guidance by that point.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Update... Woody!
previous... Hts imr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44043 - Patapsco, MD 5 mi50 min SE 1.9 G 3.9 78°F 1017.4 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi62 min 74°F 1016.7 hPa
CPVM2 8 mi62 min 77°F 75°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 9 mi62 min E 1 G 1 78°F 1017.2 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 9 mi50 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 76°F 1017 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 13 mi62 min N 4.1 G 5.1 80°F 79°F1016.8 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 13 mi62 min Calm G 1.9 72°F 77°F1017.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi80 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 76°F 76°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi170 min Calm 68°F 1017 hPa67°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 34 mi62 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 74°F 76°F1017.4 hPa
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 36 mi50 min N 3.9 G 3.9 75°F 1017.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi50 min Calm G 1.9 77°F 1017.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi62 min 72°F 78°F1018 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi68 min Calm G 1 71°F 76°F1017.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi62 min ENE 1 G 2.9 76°F 1017.7 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1017.2 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD11 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair72°F68°F88%1017.3 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD13 mi26 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds70°F66°F90%1017 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi26 minno data mi79°F66°F67%1017.2 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD17 mi35 minN 07.00 miFair64°F62°F94%1018.3 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD17 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair72°F71°F100%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W3NW5NW3NW4NW4NW3NW5NW3N4N8N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmNW3NW4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN5NW3CalmW3NW3W3N5NW5NW6NW6N6N7N7N4N6N3CalmSE3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW3NW3NW3N4N4N5N4N4N4NW3CalmN4NW6NW4NW5NW8N7NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cornfield Creek, Magothy River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Cornfield Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:04 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:10 AM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:02 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:01 PM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.210.90.80.70.70.911.11.21.210.80.60.40.40.40.60.81.11.31.51.6

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:40 AM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:46 AM EDT     0.53 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:32 PM EDT     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:22 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:54 PM EDT     0.89 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.4-00.30.50.50.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.60.80.90.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.