Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:22PM Sunday May 26, 2019 6:06 PM EDT (22:06 UTC) Moonrise 12:55AMMoonset 11:39AM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 437 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Rest of this afternoon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 437 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak boundary will remain stalled out near the waters through Monday. The front will then lift back north by Tuesday as high pressure off the southeastern united states coast regains control through the middle of the week. A weak cold front will stall out near the waters late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, MD
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location: 39.1, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 261900
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
300 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front will settle southward across the area tonight,
stalling across the region on Monday before lifting northward
again Tuesday. Bermuda high pressure sets up toward the middle
portion of the week, resulting in hot and humid conditions over
much of the eastern united states.

Near term through tonight
This afternoon, a cold front extends across the great lakes.

Aloft, one shortwave MCV is moving across southern pennsylvania,
with another in the lower ohio valley. In between, broad lift in
the warm sector and weak vorticity advection in an unstable
atmosphere is resulting in scattered thunderstorm development.

Most of the lift with the lead MCV is to the north, and thus
activity through the remainder of the afternoon may be somewhat
scattered. MLCAPE is 1000-1500 j kg with deep shear greater than
40 kt. Thus any storms that strengthen will have a severe
threat, with some supercells possible. Straight hodographs,
weak low level wind shear, and high lcls will make the tornado
threat limited though. Modest mid level lapse rates and a
downsloping wind may inhibit storm intensity and the hail
threat, though obviously any supercells would counteract that.

So damaging winds due to steep low level lapse rates and decent
dcape will be the primary threat. There may be a bit of a lull
in activity between 5-8 pm.

Most high-res guidance indicates well-organized convection
upstream propagating into the area this evening. Given
instability and shear will still be present, a severe weather
risk will continue. While the storms should be a bit more
widespread, the severe weather coverage is a little more
uncertain since it will have to counteract a stabilizing
nocturnal boundary layer. This activity will likely exit to the
south east by midnight - 2 am, continuing to weaken as it does
so. The cold front will also push south, perhaps modulated by
the convection. There may be a lingering shower along the front,
but the latter half of the night should be more dry. Some patchy
fog could develop, though mostly cloudy skies will be a limiting
factor. Lows will be in the 60s.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
The surface front should generally be south of the area on
memorial day, limiting instability. A few showers and
thunderstorms could develop through the day in the deeper
frontal zone, but most of the recent guidance has very little
activity. Greater baltimore has the lowest chance of rain.

Clouds will probably outweigh sunshine for much of the day with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

The weak boundary will start heading back north Monday night
and will move back north of most of the region on Tuesday.

Before that happens, however, another shortwave will bring a
round of late night early morning showers. Thunderstorms will
also be possible as steep mid-level lapse rates and instability
advect into the area. Time of day suggests there won't be a lot
of severe threat with this round, but will need to watch heavy
rain potential. After the front moves north, temps should rise
back close to 90 later in the day Tuesday, with plenty of
humidity. So there will likely be fairly large CAPE values with
moderate to strong shear. However, there may be some subsidence
in the wake of the shortwave, and better frontal forcing remains
to the north. At the moment, most guidance limits convective
activity across northern parts of the area and across pa. But
there could be an attendant severe threat. The proximity of any
frontal forcing will determine any convective threat Tuesday
night, but with the boundary likely to the north, have kept pops
low.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
For Wednesday and Thursday, high pressure both at the surface and
aloft will be centered over atlantic ocean into florida while a
boundary remains well to our north. A southwest flow will usher in
hot and humid conditions during this time.

A cold front will drop south into our region Thursday night and it
will stall out nearby through the weekend. At the same time, a weak
upper-level trough is expected to be overhead. This will bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms along with seasonable
conditions.

Aviation 19z Sunday through Friday
Thunderstorm activity may be rather scattered through this
afternoon. Originally high-res models were hitting the i-95
corridor in the 19-21z time frame, but development has been slow
and this forcing will be moving to the east. So any direct hits
will be limited through sunset and will have to be handled with
tempos, but these storms could be severe. Guidance has a more
organized threat from upstream storms this evening, so have
indicated this with a tsra. These storms could be strong severe
as well. However, details will have to be updated when the
threat becomes evident. Patchy fog is possible after storms exit
late tonight, though clouds may be a limiting factor. Some low
clouds aren't out of the question either.

The front will be south of the area Monday, then lift back north
Tuesday. So Tuesday will have the greater threat of showers and
storms, and the highest chance may actually be in the morning.

Patchy nocturnal fog will remain possible at the outlying
terminals with otherwiseVFR prevailing.

Vfr conditions are expected most of the time Wednesday and Thursday.

A shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but much of the time
will be dry. A weak boundary will stall out nearby Friday, bring the
chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Winds out of the southwest to west at 5-10 kt expected this
afternoon, becoming northwest to north as a front passes south
tonight. Winds behind the front may briefly gust near sca
criteria. Light winds likely to prevail through Monday and
Tuesday as a weak front meanders across the region. Main concern
will be potential special marine warnings due to thunderstorms,
with highest odds this afternoon through about 2 am tonight and
again on Tuesday.

High pressure to the south will control the weather pattern
for Wednesday and Thursday with south to southwest winds. Winds
should remain below SCA criteria for most of the time. A weak
boundary may impact the area late in the week.

Tides coastal flooding
Now that winds have taken a more westerly direction, anomalies
are decreasing, and should decrease further tonight when a cold
front moves to the south. So after the dc SW waterfront advisory
expires this afternoon, the next few cycles should remain below
flood stage.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
dcz001.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Ads
short term... Ads
long term... Bjl
aviation... Bjl ads
marine... Bjl ads
tides coastal flooding... Ads


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi36 min 83°F 1012.8 hPa
CPVM2 8 mi36 min 75°F 73°F
44063 - Annapolis 9 mi42 min SSW 12 G 14 75°F 71°F1013.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 9 mi36 min W 6 G 7 86°F 1013 hPa
FSNM2 9 mi42 min W 6 G 7 86°F 1013 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 13 mi36 min W 2.9 G 7 88°F 72°F1012.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 13 mi42 min S 5.1 G 8 83°F 72°F1013.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi66 min SSE 12 G 12 77°F 71°F1014.3 hPa (-1.3)68°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 34 mi36 min NNW 4.1 G 7 89°F 73°F1013 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi48 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 75°F 1014.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi42 min 76°F 76°F1014 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi42 min WSW 5.1 G 7 85°F 72°F1013 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi36 min ENE 5.1 G 7 77°F 1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi72 minno data10.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F70°F59%1013.4 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD11 mi86 minSSE 101.75 miSky Obscured with Haze86°F71°F62%1013.5 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD13 mi72 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F66°F50%1012.6 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi72 minno data mi89°F64°F45%1012.7 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD17 mi81 minWSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F69°F55%1013.2 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD17 mi84 minW 710.00 mi86°F64°F49%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S12
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S6S10NE3--CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW5W6N4CalmSE6SE63S6----
1 day agoNW9CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NE7E9E11E6E9SE10SE9SE9SE11SE11SE9SE11SE11SE12S14S17
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2 days agoSW33S4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmW3W6W6NW4NW6NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Cornfield Creek, Magothy River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:04 AM EDT     0.60 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:47 AM EDT     0.63 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:20 PM EDT     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.30.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.40.60.60.50.3-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.30.10.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.