Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:50PM Sunday November 18, 2018 12:29 PM EST (17:29 UTC) Moonrise 2:40PMMoonset 1:47AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 936 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
Rest of today..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 936 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the waters today will shift off the new england coast tonight. SEveral waves of low pressure and their associated fronts will move near the waters through the middle of next week. Small craft advisories may be required for portions of the waters Tuesday and Tuesday night, and again Wednesday night into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, MD
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location: 39.1, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 181446
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
946 am est Sun nov 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will continue shifting to off the new england
coast through tonight. A frontal boundary will linger nearby
through Tuesday, with several waves of low pressure riding along
it. The first passing near the region tonight, and the second
traversing the area Monday night into Tuesday. A stronger cold
front will then approach the region from the northwest on
Wednesday as strong canadian high pressure builds to our north
for the remainder of the workweek.

Near term through tonight
Weak low pressure currently situated along a stationary
boundary will move northeastward through the ohio valley through
the day today. This will aid in increasing moisture and weak
warm air advection through the day, leading to significant
amounts of cloud cover. However expecting a dry day for all
locations. Will see temperatures a few degrees warmer than
Saturday, with highs ranging from the middle 40s in the
mountains to low- mid 50s in the cities and to the south and
east.

The aforementioned area of low pressure and associated frontal
boundary will linger just to our northwest tonight, bringing a
chance of showers to the allegheny and potomac highlands.

Temperature profiles favor rain showers with mid to upper 30s
expected over this area. Moisture and lift will be limited, so
any shower activity will deliver accumulations less than a tenth
of an inch. Lows will hold above freezing in the middle 30s to
lower 40s region wide.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
The frontal boundary will linger over the area on Monday with
temperatures trending warmer on the southerly flow. Highs on
Monday will near seasonal levels for a change, as temperatures
will range from upper 40s to near 50 across northern md to near
60 degrees across central va. A chance of showers will exist
during the day, favoring locations near the mason dixon line and
west of the blue ridge mountains. Capping pops in the chance
category, with the allegheny highlands and western maryland
carry the highest chances.

A better shot of precipitation across the area is possible
Monday night into Tuesday morning as low pressure crosses the
region and the main upper level trough axis navigates the great
lakes and pushes to our east Tuesday night. Again moisture will
remain limited given there is no significant moisture source and
lift remains weak. Locations in the eastern WV panhandle and
western maryland could pick up a quarter inch of liquid
precipitation, with a tenth of an inch or less forecast further
south and east into the metro areas. Temperatures outside of the
allegheny highlands will favor rain showers, with a rain snow
mix possible there Monday night and into Tuesday. Minor snow
accumulations of around an inch or less will be possible in the
favored upslope areas through Tuesday afternoon.

As the area of low pressure exits stage right by midday
Tuesday, winds will shift out of the northwest and become gusty
as colder air filters into the region behind a frontal passage.

Highs Tuesday will range in the upper 30s over the mountains to
near 50 degrees in the cities. With cold air advection winning
out Tuesday night, temperatures will drop below freezing once
again for most, with middle 30s in the urban centers, with drier
and clearer conditions expected.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Long term starts out benign before becoming a bit more active
during next weekend. For the big travel day on Wednesday, high
pressure will dominate. It will be canadian in origin so temps
will be below normal, but otherwise tranquil conditions should
prevail.

Another cold front will cross the region Wednesday night. This
one is coming almost due south as a deep but fast moving trough
pushes southeast across the northeastern us. While little if any
precip is expected with the front, the air behind this front
promises to be nearly, if not the, coldest we've seen so far
this season. Some guidance is depicting highs on thanksgiving
day potentially staying in the 30s, with widespread lows in the
teens to low 20s by Friday morning. This would likely be the
coldest thanksgiving in quite a few years if this were to come
to fruition, though not all guidance is as cold, with some
models pushing the cold air more easterly versus southerly.

High pressure dominates briefly Friday with temps starting to
rebound. The next system then possibly reaches our region on
Saturday. This one may be tricky with the cold air exiting, but
perhaps not fast enough, which could spell a wintry or mixed
precip event. Stay tuned...

Aviation 15z Sunday through Thursday
Increasing low level moisture is expected across the terminals
today with periods of MVFR CIGS in low level stratus most likely
at cho, but also forecast at iad and mrb for a period this
afternoon. Further east, expecting conditions to remainVFR.

MVFR CIGS possible once again tonight with low level stratus at
mrb cho iad, but otherwiseVFR conditions and light southerly
winds expected through Monday.

Low pressure will cross the terminals Monday night into Tuesday
with a chance of rain showers. SubVFR vis CIGS will be
plausible during this timeframe, with mrb bwi mtn serving to see
the highest chance of such an occurrence. A cold front will
sweep across the terminals during the day on Tuesday, veering
winds out of the northwest and becoming gusty upwards of 25
knots Tuesday afternoon.

Vfr conditions expected Wednesday and Thursday, with the only
issue being potential for some gusty northwest winds behind a
passing cold front Wednesday night.

Marine
Sub SCA conditions forecast through Monday night as high
pressure shifts off the new england coast and a light southerly
flow prevails. Low pressure is progged to cross the waters early
Tuesday, with a cold front moving through Tuesday afternoon.

This will increase the likelihood of SCA gusts Tuesday afternoon
and Tuesday night.

Sca conditions likely late Wednesday into Thursday as another
cold front pushes southeast across the region.

Climate
Here are the current rankings for wettest year on record
(through november 15th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.09 inches (1878)
4. 58.58 inches (2018)
5. 58.17 inches (1886)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 63.18 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
3. 62.35 inches (1889)
4. 58.98 inches (1979)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 59.17 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
4. 58.09 inches (1996)
5. 55.43 inches (1979)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bkf rcm
near term... Mm bkf
short term... Bkf
long term... Rcm
aviation... Mm bkf rcm
marine... Mm bkf rcm
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 8 mi41 min 46°F 33°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi41 min 46°F 1027 hPa
FSNM2 9 mi59 min ESE 8.9 G 11 42°F 1027 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 9 mi35 min 45°F 1027.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 9 mi41 min E 8.9 G 11 43°F 1027.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 13 mi47 min SSE 6 G 8.9 45°F 54°F1027 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 13 mi41 min SE 5.1 G 7 46°F 47°F1027.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi29 min SSE 7 G 8.9 46°F 49°F1028 hPa (-1.5)33°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi119 min S 1 43°F 1028 hPa37°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 34 mi41 min SSW 7 G 8 47°F 46°F1027.2 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi39 min 48°F 1027.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi47 min 51°F 48°F1027.2 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi41 min SE 4.1 G 8.9 46°F 46°F1027.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi41 min S 8.9 G 9.9 46°F 1027.9 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi35 minESE 710.00 miFair48°F36°F63%1027.3 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD11 mi49 minSE 610.00 miFair48°F35°F62%1027.8 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD13 mi35 minESE 610.00 miOvercast47°F34°F61%1026.8 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi35 minno data mi46°F32°F58%1027.2 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD17 mi47 minSSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F35°F66%1027.8 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD17 mi39 minSE 410.00 miOvercast46°F37°F71%1028.1 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N4CalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmN4NW4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE6SE7
1 day agoNW14
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--------------------------------------W8
G18

Tide / Current Tables for Cornfield Creek, Magothy River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:06 AM EST     0.56 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:46 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:56 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:17 AM EST     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:27 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:46 PM EST     0.83 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:06 PM EST     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:14 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.50.3-0-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.20.60.80.80.70.40-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.