Saturday, February17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:47PM Saturday February 17, 2018 10:10 PM EST (03:10 UTC) Moonrise 8:01AMMoonset 7:39PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 933 Pm Est Sat Feb 17 2018
Rest of tonight..SW winds 5 kt...becoming W late. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain, sleet and snow likely late this evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Thu..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 933 Pm Est Sat Feb 17 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A wave of low pressure will track along a cold front to our south tonight. High pressure will return for Sunday, then move offshore early next week. A warm front will move north across the waters Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, MD
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location: 39.1, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 180148
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
848 pm est Sat feb 17 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will track northeastward along a stalled frontal
boundary well to our south through tonight. High pressure will
build in from the west on Sunday, migrating offshore by Monday.

Low pressure will move northeastward toward the great lakes
Monday, lifting a warm front northward through our region. A
cold front is poised to approach the region during the middle
portion of the work week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Low pressure is beginning to develop off the DELMARVA coast.

However, regional radars suggest that the main area of
precipitation moving onto the eastern shore. Rain had spread
north to dc metro prior to its ending. So, believe that the
accumulating snow has already fallen. With that in mind, have
cancelled the winter weather advisory for the shenandoah valley
and the dc metro area.

Am still watching precip tracking across pennsylvania, which
could affect northern maryland. Also, only recently has the
snow pulled away from metro baltimore. Anticipate the rest of
the advisory will be able to be dropped before midnight.

That turns the focus to the upslope potential. The best
shortwave energy will be crossing in the 06-09 utc window. That
makes for a limited opportunity for additional accumulation...

perhaps another inch or two. Considering reports to this point,
warning criteria may not be reached. However, do not have the
confidence to downgrade at this time.

Temperatures will be hovering in the lower 30s for much of the
night. Given snow and ice on the ground, slippery conditions may
be an issue, and will strongly consider a special weather
statement to cover it. Am also concerned that the snow ice on the
ground will result in fog development since there will be
little ventilating wind until dawn.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Monday night
High pressure quickly moves in behind the exiting low pressure
area to the northeast, resulting in a dry and clear conditions.

After a cold and perhaps icy start to the morning, temperatures
will rebound nicely, topping out in the mid 40s to lower 50s
region wide. High pressure shifts offshore Sunday night, keeping
a light return flow over the region and temperatures above
normal. Low pressure will move northeastward toward the great
lakes region on Monday, which will help lift a warm front
through our area. With warm air advection ongoing, could see
some shower activity on Monday, not a complete washout, but
definitely an increase in cloudiness. Highs Sunday Monday will
be above average, ranging in the low to mid 50s. Lows Sunday
night will likely remain above freezing, and Monday night will
remain in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure will be offshore on Tuesday with return flow well
settled over our region and an upper level ridge centered over
the SE conus. Dry and above normal temperatures are expected
Tuesday, with highs reaching the 70s for most of our cwa.

A similar scenario is expected on Wednesday before a slow moving
cold front approaches from the west. Guidance disagrees on the
timing of the front, but there seems to be a consensus between some
deterministic and ensembles that it will most likely move through
later Wednesday or early Thursday. The front will stall nearby
Thursday and into Friday which could keep the unsettled weather
through the end of the week, with cooler -but still above normal-
temperatures over our area. The front will lift as a warm front on
Saturday, continuing the chances of rain over our area.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
All precipitation has moved east of the terminals. However, low
clouds linger. Am becoming concerned that without any
ventilating wind, the clouds will remain and may be joined by
developing fog. Pretty much have status quo (ifr) in the tafs
for a couple of hours past midnight. Will need to reassess what
to do thereafter.

Vfr conditions will prevail Sunday and Sunday night. Light
winds at 10 knots or less are expected.

A warm front will lift north of the area on Monday, bringing a
threat for shower activity and the potential for episodes of
subVFR conditions.

Vfr conditions expected Tuesday and part of the day
Wednesday before sub-vfr periods possible late on Wednesday and into
Thursday when unsettled weather could affect our area.

Marine
With low pressure crossing the region through tonight, expect a
weak gradient which will keep winds below criteria threshold. Winds
will remain below advisory criteria through Monday as high
pressure traverses our region and moves offshore, delivering
light southerly winds over the waters.

Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria on Tuesday,
even though they will be breezy. Similar conditions expected on
Wednesday, therefore no small craft advisory expected these
days. Winds will decrease on Thursday and remain below criteria.

Climate
A period of exceptional warm weather is expected Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures will be approaching if not exceeding record
values. Below is a listing of record warm highs and record warm lows
for this period.

Record warm daily maximum temperatures
site Tue 2 20 Wed 2 21
dca 76 (1930) 75 (1953)
bwi 76 (1930) 74 (1930)
iad 70 (1971) 70 (1997)
record warm daily minimum temperatures
site Tue 2 20 Wed 2 21
dca 59 (1939) 51 (1954)
bwi 57 (1939) 49 (1981)
iad 46 (1981) 45 (1981)

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... Winter weather advisory until midnight est tonight for
mdz003>006-011-014-501-502-505>508.

Va... Winter weather advisory until midnight est tonight for vaz028-
503.

Wv... Winter weather advisory until midnight est tonight for
wvz050>053-504-505.

Winter storm warning until 2 am est Sunday for wvz501-503.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bkf
near term... Hts
short term... Bkf
long term... Imr
aviation... Hts bkf imr
marine... Bkf imr
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 8 mi41 min 35°F 35°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi41 min 35°F 1018.4 hPa
FSNM2 9 mi41 min WSW 4.1 G 6 1018.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 9 mi41 min WSW 5.1 G 6 33°F 1019.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 13 mi41 min WSW 1 G 2.9 33°F 38°F1018.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 13 mi41 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 34°F 39°F1018.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi71 min SSE 9.9 G 12 35°F 38°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 34 mi41 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 35°F 41°F1019.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi31 min Calm G 1.9 36°F 1020.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi41 min 35°F 43°F1018.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi41 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 33°F 38°F1018.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi41 min Calm G 4.1 35°F 1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi17 minW 36.00 miFog/Mist37°F36°F96%1018.7 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD11 mi36 minSSW 45.00 miFog/Mist34°F33°F100%1019 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD13 mi17 minSW 34.00 miFog/Mist33°F33°F100%1018.6 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi17 minno data mi33°F33°F100%1019.2 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD17 mi35 minN 03.00 miOvercast32°F32°F100%1019.6 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD17 mi26 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist34°F33°F100%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12
G22
NW8NW7NW4CalmNW4NW7N6N5N6E11E8SE9SE8SE7E3CalmNE3NE4----SE8S5W3
1 day ago6--3SE3CalmNW43W7W8CalmCalmSW3CalmSW434NW13
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2 days agoS8CalmSE7SE6SE4SE6E3SE4CalmSE4SE5SE6SE3SE6SE7SE4SE7SE4E4E6SE6SE54SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Cornfield Creek, Magothy River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Cornfield Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:27 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:58 AM EST     0.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:04 PM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:45 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:31 PM EST     1.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0-00.10.30.50.70.70.70.50.30-0.1-0.2-0.200.30.60.8110.90.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:21 AM EST     -0.96 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:44 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:33 AM EST     0.70 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:25 PM EST     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:13 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:45 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:31 PM EST     0.88 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:38 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:42 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.30.10.50.70.70.50.2-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.60.80.90.70.3-0.1-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.