Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:16PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 2:20 AM EST (07:20 UTC) Moonrise 7:14PMMoonset 8:32AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 1258 Am Est Tue Jan 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
Overnight..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft...subsiding to flat in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming s. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 1258 Am Est Tue Jan 22 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Arctic high pressure will slowly build over the region through the day on Tuesday, shifting off the mid atlantic coast Tuesday night. Low pressure passing through the central u.s. Will approach the region Wednesday, and along with its associated cold front will cross the waters on Thursday. A secondary cold front will cross the waters Friday, as high pressure returns through the first half of the weekend. Small craft advisories may be required Tuesday night, while looking likely Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, MD
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location: 39.1, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 220158 aaa
afdlwx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
858 pm est Mon jan 21 2019

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will build over the region through Tuesday,
before sliding off the mid atlantic coast Tuesday night. A cold
front will move into the ohio valley on Wednesday and across our
area Wednesday night and into Thursday. Another cold front will
cross the area on Friday as high pressure builds back over the
region the first half of the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Arctic high pressure will build over the region tonight. Despite
this, 24-hr model trends in temperatures show no change or in
some cases temperatures a little warmer east of the mtns. Over
the higher elevs, expect temperatures to rise overnight due to
warm air advection aloft. 850 mb temps over the appalachains are
expect to rise from -15c to -4c by daybreak. Already have seen a
+9c increase at 850 mb at iad since 12z today. Will be adjusting
temps upward a bit east and several degs higher over the mtns.

Still very cold nonetheless.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night
High pressure over head will continue to shift east on Tuesday, and
off of the mid-atlantic coast into Tuesday night. This will bring
lighter winds as return flow settles in. High temperatures on
Tuesday will be in the upper 20s and mid 30s, under mostly sunny
skies. Clouds will be on the increase on Tuesday night as an
approaching low pressure cold front approaches the mid-atlantic coast.

Light wintry precipitation is possible ahead of this boundary over
areas west of the blue ridge late Tuesday night.

As the boundary approaches on Wednesday and southerly flow advects
warm air into our region, rain is expected to overspread over our
cwa. High temperatures are expected to be in the 40s and low 50s.

The boundary will be slowly moving across as waves of low pressure
track along it. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are possible.

Overnight low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s, with upper
20s at higher elevations. West to northwesterly flow settles in
behind the front late Wednesday, with possible upslope precipitation
west of the allegheny front.

Long term Thursday through Monday
A wave of low pressure will be crossing our region early Thursday
with rain. A period of heavy rain is possible, with potential for
a bit of wintry weather towards the back side. Guidance has not
quite settled on the exact track of the low, so this will influence
future temperature and p-type forecasts, but odds favor rain for the
metro, with a better chance of wintry weather well north and west.

Dry weather should return behind the system Thursday night along
with cooling temps.

Another front, this one more arctic in origin, will cross the region
Friday. Guidance had previously hinted some snow squalls could
accompany this front, but latest runs have backed off on this
somewhat. That said, a stray snow shower east of the mountains
still can't be ruled out. Behind this second front, arctic high
pressure will then settle over or just south of the region for
Saturday, resulting in a pretty cold start to the weekend. Sunday, a
deepening trough dives southeast across the plains into the
southeast, potentially generating some sort of coastal system. Gfs
keeps this system south and east, but 12z ggem brings it much
closer. 12z ECMWF stalls the system off the southeast coast.

Ensemble spread is large, but upper height pattern suggests
coastal storm potential Sunday into early next week.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
A high pressure system will build over the terminals tonight
and winds will be on the decrease.VFR conditions and lighter
winds are expected Tuesday and into Tuesday night.

A cold front will approach and moves across our area Wednesday into
Wednesday night. This will bring rain and sub-vfr conditions at
times, along with an increase in winds.

Ifr likely Thursday as wave of low pressure spreads rain across the
region.VFR should return Thursday night and Friday.

Marine
Small craft advisory (sca) through tonight with decreasing
winds as high pressure builds overhead. Winds will remain below
criteria into Tuesday into Tuesday night as high pressure
slides east off of the mid-atlantic coast. Winds may increase
above SCA criteria on Wednesday into Wednesday night with cold
front moving over the waters.

Potential for small craft advisories exists Thursday as a front
stalls in the area and a wave of low pressure rides northeast
up the front. Another weak boundary could induce small craft gusts
on Friday, though odds of this are lower.

Tides coastal flooding
Persistent and strong northwest flow will yield blowout conditions
through tonight.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... Wind chill advisory until 10 pm est this evening for mdz501.

Va... Wind chill advisory until 10 pm est this evening for vaz503-
504.

Wv... Wind chill advisory until 10 pm est this evening for wvz501-
503-505-506.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Tuesday for anz530>543.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Lfr
short term... Imr
long term... Rcm
aviation... Rcm lfr
marine... Rcm lfr
tides coastal flooding... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 8 mi38 min 17°F 2°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi32 min 16°F 1036.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 9 mi38 min WNW 15 G 18 17°F 1036.4 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 13 mi38 min NW 6 G 8.9 16°F 38°F1036.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 13 mi32 min NW 13 G 20 18°F 32°F1036.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi80 min WNW 13 G 15 17°F 37°F1036.6 hPa (+1.0)1°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi110 min NW 5.1 16°F 1036 hPa2°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 34 mi32 min WNW 5.1 G 8 17°F 36°F1038 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi38 min 20°F 32°F1035.9 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi32 min NW 9.9 G 13 16°F 33°F1035.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi38 min NNW 12 G 17 17°F 1037.4 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi26 minWNW 810.00 miFair19°F1°F47%1036.9 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD11 mi40 minno data10.00 miFair16°F1°F53%1036.6 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD13 mi26 minWNW 610.00 miFair13°F1°F59%1036.6 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi26 minno data mi17°F-2°F43%1036.7 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD17 mi38 minW 610.00 miFair18°F3°F53%1036.9 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD17 mi38 minWNW 410.00 miFair14°F3°F62%1037.2 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12
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1 day agoSE8S11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E8E6E5E6E4E3E5E9E8E8E7E12
G21
E5NW4CalmNE4CalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for Cornfield Creek, Magothy River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:30 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:02 AM EST     0.63 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:43 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:39 AM EST     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:21 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:57 PM EST     1.21 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:19 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.2-1-0.7-0.20.20.50.60.50.3-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.20.30.81.11.21.10.70.2-0.4-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.