Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:23PM Monday March 25, 2019 2:26 AM EDT (06:26 UTC) Moonrise 11:44PMMoonset 9:09AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 138 Am Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect late tonight...
Overnight..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Occasional rain.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft... Building to 3 ft after midnight. Occasional rain.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 138 Am Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore tonight. Low pressure and its associated cold front will cross the waters Monday. This will be followed by high pressure for the remainder of the upcoming week. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, MD
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location: 39.1, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 250033
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
833 pm edt Sun mar 24 2019

Synopsis
A weak warm front will approach the region tonight and then
stall across the area. A low pressure system will track along
this boundary Monday, bringing a cold front across the region
late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. High pressure settle
southward across the area for Tuesday through Friday.

Near term through Monday
Forecast issued earlier this afternoon remains largely on track,
and only minor modifications were made for this evening's
package.

High pressure has pushed into the atlantic, which south flow
across the area. Although the upper layers are moistening, the
boundary layer is bone dry (relative humidity 20% dewpoint
depression near 40 degrees). Eventually, the veil of high clouds
will thicken, and slowly lower tonight.

Weak positive vorticity advection and isentropic upglide will
allow clouds to lower. However, given how dry it is below 850 mb,
am less optimistic with respect to precipitation tonight. Am
keeping a chance of rain northwest of washington dc, but
precipitation (sprinkles?) will barely be enough to wet the
ground.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
The associated weak warm front will stall across the area
Monday morning and then slowly drop south again as low pressure
tracks across the area during the afternoon. Forcing from the
low and 500 mb shortwave will be the catalysts for rainfall;
this will occur during the afternoon hours, supporting likely-
categorical pops. It may be just cloudy and damp prior to it. Do
believe there will be a fairly sharp precip gradient near the
mason-dixon line.

Although temperatures forecasts for Monday remain somewhat
tricky due to the position of the warm front track of the low,
model output remain somewhat consistent resulting in only minor
adjustments. Since it may not be all that wet early
charlottesville-fredericksburg, and these locations should be on
the south side of the system, anticipate central virginia
should be able to reach 60 degrees. The bigger question will be
the potomac highlands; am keeping the forecast there lower-mid
50s. A wetter solution, especially in the morning, could make
that forecast too warm.

Cold advection will arrive on the back side of the low Monday
evening. There is a chance that temperatures will cool
sufficiently to end the precip as snow, especially across the
ridge tops, but do not have high confidence that there will be
much precip left by that point (winds will be due north... Not an
upslope direction). Allowed for a coating on some ridges, but
nothing elsewhere.

A large area of high pressure will settle south from the great
lakes (and canada) Tuesday. Subsidence will result in sunny and
dry conditions, but it won't be warm. Highs will only be in the
40s (with subzero 850 mb temperatures) and lows Tuesday night in
the 20s away from the urban downtowns.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
Surface high pressure will push off the east coast on
Wednesday, and remain there through the early part of the
weekend. Additionally, the region will be stuck under an upper
ridge, resulting in dry weather for the entire area through
Saturday. Temperatures will moderate slightly on Wednesday, but
will likely be slightly below average, with highs into the low
to mid 50s. The warming trend will continue through Saturday.

Highs on Thursday will be near 60, with Friday reaching into the
mid to upper 60s.

Surface low pressure forms over the central plains Friday into
Saturday as an upper shortwave ejects out of the pacific
northwest. The low will then strengthen on Saturday as the
aforementioned shortwave phases with another piece of shortwave
energy diving out of central canada. On Saturday, this will
enhance the return flow for our region, resulting in
temperatures well above normal. Could see high temperatures into
the low 70s on Saturday, with dry conditions expected. Though,
as the low tracks into the great lakes, the attendant cold front
will push through our region either Saturday or Sunday. So,
could potentially see some precipitation later in the day on
Saturday, but uncertainty is still high in terms of timing of
the frontal passage.

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
Vfr conditions anticipated tonight as high clouds thicken and
lower. There could be a sprinkle toward dawn, which will lower
ceilings further (stillVFR, but bkn-ovc050-060).

Rain will arrive during Monday afternoon. MVFR likely during
this time. Would not rule out a period of ifr, most likely mrb.

Flight restrictions probably will linger into Monday evening.

High pressure returns Monday night, moves overhead by midweek,
and offshore by the end of the week.VFR conditions expected.

Marine
Guidance insists that the middle bay will experience some
stronger southerly channeling overnight, so have issued a sca
for the rest of tonight. Elsewhere, winds will likely diminish
overnight. Warm front will stall across the waters late tonight
and an area of low pressure and cold front will follow on
Monday. In the wake of these features, mixing will improve
substantially. Small craft advisories are now in effect Monday
night and will likely be needed Tuesday.

No marine hazards are expected Wednesday through Friday at this
time, as high pressure will become anchored off the east coast,
resulting in light southerly flow.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 pm Monday to 6 am edt Tuesday for
anz532>534-537-539>543.

Small craft advisory from midnight Monday night to 6 am edt
Tuesday for anz530-531-535-536-538.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Monday for anz534-543.

Synopsis... Hts
near term... Hts rcm
short term... Hts rcm
long term... Cjl
aviation... Hts cjl rcm
marine... Hts cjl rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 8 mi44 min 47°F 47°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi38 min 48°F 1017.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 9 mi44 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 49°F 1017.6 hPa
FSNM2 9 mi44 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 1017.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 13 mi44 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 51°F 47°F1017.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 13 mi38 min ESE 2.9 G 2.9 47°F 49°F1017.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi26 min NNW 8.9 G 9.9 48°F 46°F1018.5 hPa (-0.5)44°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi116 min N 1.9 47°F 1018 hPa41°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 34 mi44 min ENE 2.9 G 6 53°F 49°F1017.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi44 min 54°F 48°F1017.4 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi62 min Calm G 1 47°F 47°F1018.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi38 min SW 14 G 17 1017.7 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi92 minN 010.00 miFair50°F42°F74%1018.1 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD11 mi46 minN 510.00 miMostly Cloudy0°F0°F%1017.9 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD13 mi32 minN 010.00 miOvercast49°F37°F64%1017.3 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi32 minno data mi52°F36°F55%1017.8 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD17 mi44 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F41°F76%1018.3 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD17 mi44 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F35°F71%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW55W7SE13SE11SE12S11
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SE6CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW11
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2 days agoNW15
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Tide / Current Tables for Cornfield Creek, Magothy River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:53 AM EDT     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:16 AM EDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:53 PM EDT     -0.96 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:58 PM EDT     0.57 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.30.10.60.91.110.80.3-0.1-0.6-0.9-1-0.8-0.5-0.10.20.50.60.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.