Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 6:27PM Monday October 15, 2018 7:27 AM EDT (11:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:31PMMoonset 10:22PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 434 Am Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Rest of the overnight..S winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely with patchy drizzle.
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers likely.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt... Becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt...diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 434 Am Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will lift across the waters this morning. A cold front approaching from the great lakes will move southeastward across the waters this evening. A wave of low pressure will move from the tennessee valley to off the southeast virginia coast Tuesday into Tuesday night, pushing the cold front further south Wednesday. A secondary cold front approaching from the great lakes will cross the waters Wednesday night. Small craft advisories may be necessary Tuesday night through Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, MD
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location: 39.1, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 150737
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
337 am edt Mon oct 15 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will lift through the region this morning, followed by
a cold front crossing southeastward from the great lakes this
evening. A wave of low pressure will pass offshore to the south near
the virginia north carolina border Tuesday night, followed by a
secondary cold front moving southward by late Wednesday. High
pressure will build eastward from the ohio valley into the mid-
atlantic Thursday, then pull offshore Friday as a cold front
approaches from the west.

Near term through tonight
As an area of low pressure lifts northeastward from the great lakes
and into southeast canada, a warm front will lift northward across
the region this morning, with the area residing in the warm sector
by the afternoon. The attendant cold front will then push eastward
and cross during the afternoon and evening hours, clearing south of
the area by early Tuesday morning.

In addition to patchy drizzle and some low stratus, an initial area
of rain showers will push northeastward and across the region early
this morning. Following this, there will likely be a lull period
during the late morning and early afternoon where any showers will
be isolated to scattered at best. As the cold front then begins its
approach, showers will again increase in coverage during the mid to
late afternoon, especially across eastern west virginia and
northern western maryland. As the cold front crosses later this
evening, showers will then increase across the dc baltimore
metro areas. The low level wind field is actually quite strong,
and there will likely be just enough instability for a line of
gusty showers and possibly an isolated tstorm to develop along
the frontal boundary from dc east and northeast.

Mostly cloudy skies are expected today, although some breaks of sun
will likely be seen across portions of central va and southern md.

Highs today will reach into the 70s. With the aforementioned low
level wind field, south to southwest winds will increase and some
gusts 20-25 mph are likely, with up to 35-45 mph along the higher
elevations of the allegheny front.

High pressure will then begin to move into the region overnight, and
gusty northwest winds will develop behind the front, with gusts up
to 30 mph early Tuesday morning. Showers will end from northwest to
southeast by Tuesday morning. Upslope areas of the allegheny front
and southeast md will be the last to see precip end. Lows in the
40s 50s.

Short term Tuesday through Tuesday night
The front will stall well south of the region across the carolinas
on Tuesday with a ridge of high pressure overhead. With fast
southwest flow aloft, there will still likely be high clouds around,
but conditions will be dry. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

A wave of low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary
Tuesday night and move quickly out to sea by Wednesday morning.

The effects will remain primarily southeast of the region but a
few showers may make into southern maryland. Lows in the 40s to
around 50f.

As that system departs, a dry but potent cold front will cross the
region on Wednesday. This will lead to the development of gusty
northwest winds heralding the arrival of cooler temperatures by
Wednesday night Thursday. Highs Wednesday in the 50s 60s with
downslope flow, but a much cooler night expected Wednesday night
with lows in the 30s 40s.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
Transient mid upper ridging will pivot west to east over the mid-
atlantic as surface high pressure builds in from the ohio valley
Thursday into Friday. Dry weather with highs in the 50s to lower 60s
are expected (about 10 degrees below normal). Northwest breezes
gradually relax through the day Thursday as high pressure moves
closer and the gradient relaxes. Winds should go calm Thursday night
as the surface high moves overhead, and it may be one of the coldest
nights so far this season. This is especially true if high clouds
streaming in ahead of the next approaching trough hold off until
near dawn, resulting in ideal radiational cooling conditions.

Clouds will increase Friday, and there is a low probability of some
showers creeping across the mountains by day's end as a cold front
begins encroaching on the area from the west. Guidance is in
generally good agreement on the front crossing sometime Saturday.

While there will only be about 24 hours of return flow resulting in
limited moisture, at least some periods of showers seem plausible
during this time.

A strong autumn high will follow in its wake resulting in breezy
conditions behind the front and a reinforcing of cool temperatures.

Some upslope snow showers are possible over the higher terrain as
well during the second half of the weekend.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
MVFR conditions are expected to start the day today with stratus and
showers drizzle as a warm front crosses the region. Improvement to
vfr is likely by the afternoon, but additional showers will then
traverse the terminals later this afternoon and evening. South to
southwest winds up to 20 knots are expected today, with potential
for localized higher gusts in showers this evening.

Winds then abruptly turn northwest following a cold frontal
passage later this evening and tonight with gusts to about 25
knots. PrimarilyVFR is expected following this frontal passage
through at least Wednesday night. Additional gusty northwest
winds are likely Wednesday.

MainlyVFR thu-fri. NW flow could be gusty (20-25 kts) Thu am, then
becoming light as high pressure builds overhead late Thu into
fri.

Marine
Sca is in effect for portions of the chesapeake bay and lower tidal
potomac this morning in strengthening south to southwest flow. This
expands to all waters by this afternoon. As a cold front crosses the
waters this evening, showers with localized higher gusts are
possible, and special marine warnings may be necessary. Behind the
front, an abrupt shift to northwest winds are expected with
widespread gusts 20-30 knots. A SCA is in effect into Tuesday
morning, with winds weakening Tuesday afternoon.

Another cold front will approach Tuesday night and winds will
increase again out of the southwest and SCA conditions become
possible. The front will cross Wednesday morning and SCA conditions
are likely in strengthening northwest winds Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

Northwest flow ahead of high pressure building in from the ohio
valley may still be strong enough to result in SCA gusts over the
waters through at least Thursday morning. Winds should go light by
Thursday night into Friday as the high moves overhead.

Tides coastal flooding
Anomalies will remain a bit elevated through tonight before
northwest flow begins to drain water out of the chesapeake bay.

Flooding is not currently forecast, however, as the higher of the
next two high tide cycles (astronomically) is this evening after
winds turn northwest and anomalies begin to decrease.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Tuesday for anz530-531-
539-540.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 10 am edt Tuesday for
anz535-536-538.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Tuesday for anz542.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Tuesday for anz532>534-537-
541-543.

Synopsis... Dhof
near term... Mm
short term... Mm
long term... Dhof
aviation... Mm dhof
marine... Mm dhof
tides coastal flooding... Dhof


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPVM2 8 mi40 min 62°F 62°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 8 mi40 min 60°F 1019.9 hPa
FSNM2 9 mi40 min SSW 7 G 11 58°F 1019.4 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 9 mi40 min SW 14 G 16 61°F 1020.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 9 mi40 min S 8 G 9.9 59°F 1019.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 13 mi40 min 72°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 13 mi40 min SSW 11 G 16 61°F 65°F1020.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 14 mi28 min SSW 16 G 18 61°F 68°F1020.9 hPa (-0.3)60°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 26 mi118 min S 1 55°F 1021 hPa54°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi38 min WSW 14 G 19 64°F 1021 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi46 min 62°F 69°F1021.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi40 min S 1.9 G 2.9 59°F 67°F1020.3 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 48 mi40 min WSW 11 G 14 62°F 1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD8 mi34 minS 55.00 miLight Rain62°F57°F84%1020.5 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD11 mi48 minSSW 9 G 175.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist61°F59°F94%1020.7 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD13 mi34 minS 34.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist57°F55°F96%1019.6 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD15 mi34 minno data mi58°F57°F97%1019.9 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD17 mi46 minS 33.00 miOvercast55°F53°F94%1021 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD17 mi43 minS 75.00 miDrizzle61°F60°F100%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from NAK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3W4CalmCalmSW3CalmSE4NE33S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmS3S4CalmS6S5
1 day agoN5N43NW6W8NW9
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NW11W6NW5NW6NW6NW4NW7NW8W6NW8N9N8N5CalmCalmN3
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NW9NW7W8W6NW5NW5N7N7N4N4N5N3CalmNW7W5N10

Tide / Current Tables for Mountain Point, Magothy River, Maryland
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Mountain Point
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Mon -- 07:03 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:33 AM EDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:25 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.210.90.70.60.50.50.50.60.70.80.80.70.60.50.30.30.30.40.50.70.91.1

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:45 AM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:00 AM EDT     0.49 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:38 PM EDT     -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:54 PM EDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.2-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.5-0.10.20.40.50.40.2-0-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.50.80.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.