Monday, February18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avalon, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:39PM Monday February 18, 2019 12:05 AM EST (05:05 UTC) Moonrise 5:37PMMoonset 7:10AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Expires:201902181415;;105366 Fzus51 Kphi 180230 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 930 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz452-453-181415- Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 930 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday afternoon through late Monday night...
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft early this evening, then 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Rain.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late in the morning, then increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt early in the afternoon, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Rain likely early in the morning, then a chance of rain late in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. A chance of snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of snow and rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Fri night..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 930 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure over the area moves offshore tonight, then low pressure will move into the region late tonight and pass through the region Monday. High pressure builds back in from the north and west on Tuesday, then moves into gulf of maine Tuesday night. A complex area of low pressure will move through the northeast Wednesday through Thursday. High pressure builds in from the north and west to close out the week. Low pressure impacts the area next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avalon , NJ
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location: 39.11, -74.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 180247
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
947 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the area moves offshore tonight, then low
pressure will move into the region late tonight and pass through
the region Monday. High pressure builds back in from the north
and west on Tuesday, then moves into gulf of maine Tuesday
night. A complex area of low pressure will move through the
northeast Wednesday through Thursday. High pressure builds in
from the north and west to close out the week. Low pressure
impacts the area next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Update...

precip has overspread much of the area as of 9:30 pm.

Temperatures remain in the low to mid 30s across a large
portion of the area, with the exceptions being NW nj, the
poconos, and portions of the lehigh valley. The big concern this
evening continues to center over precip type. The general trend
is for mixed precip to occur over the lehigh valley and into the
poconos NW nj, but exactly what for occurs where remains tricky. Based
on current surface temperatures, am beginning to think that
more areas are going to stay mostly rain. Do anticipate surface
temperatures to cool both diurnally and due to evaporative
effects. This should drop temperatures near to just below
freezing across the lehigh valley. This will make all the
difference as to whether surfaces stay wet or begin to freeze.

However, freezing rain has been reported across parts of
maryland, mostly between baltimore and the mason dixon line, so
this could be an indication that surfaces will continue to cool
as the remaining boundary layer continues to moisten. Since
temperatures will sit right on the freezing line, it's looking
more likely that freezing rain issues will be more localized.

This could still cause issues as roadways may freeze in some
area, while only remaining wet in others. Adjusted the grids to
reflect this. All in all, precip type is a bit of a beast with
this system.

Previous discussion...

the latest winter storm will be affecting
our region mostly during the near term with low pressure moving
towards WRN pa as another low forms off the DELMARVA coast
overnight. Between these lows, there is plenty of moisture and
temperatures are marginal for either all rain or snow.

Complicating things is the temperates aloft which are not
strongly indicating any preferred p-type. We will mostly keep
things as they are, but also add chester and northern montgomery
county into the present winter weather advisory. It's possible
that these areas may also get some light -zr this evening.

Confidence in p-type along the edges of the advisory is not the
best, so it's good that the overall amounts will not be too high
and that the timing of the system is not during any exceedingly
busy commuting period.

The precipitation will arrive from SW to NE this evening and be
mostly rain across DELMARVA and SRN nj. A little sleet at onset
wounln't be surprising however. Across the delaware valley a
mix of sleet and rain is expected with a change to rain
overnight. The lehigh valley area will have some snow and sleet
and then some freezing rain overnight. The northern most areas
will have sleet and freezing rain with some snow possible. The
precipitation will end from W to E around dawn.

Lows tonight will drop into the mid upper 20s across the north
and remain in the low mid 30s across much of the rest of the
area. Winds will be mostly light from the SE or e, becoming w
towards dawn.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
On Monday, the low pressure system, associated with the bad
weather Sunday night, will be offshore and moving away from our
region. Improving conditions will arrive during the morning with
the precipitation done (for ERN areas) by mid-morning. A drier
and gusty west wind will develop across the area with increasing
amounts of sunshine expected by afternoon. High temperatures
will be in the upper 40s low 50s S E and in the upper 30s to mid
40s across the southern poconos lehigh valley and NRN nj. Wind
gusts up to 30 mph expected to develop during the afternoon.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
High pressure over the northern plains states Monday evening
will slowly build to the south and east early in the new week,
and will be centered over new york state by Tuesday evening.

Meanwhile, a deep upper trough with several strong shortwaves
will move out of the rocky mountains and into the plains.

Surface low pressure will develop out ahead of that trough over
the gulf coast states, and will lift through the lower
mississippi valley and towards the tennessee valley by Wednesday
morning. The 1040 mb high over ny will slowly push east, and
overrunning precip will develop out ahead of the developing low
and lift into DELMARVA and the delaware valley by Wednesday
morning.

12z guidance seems to have slowed the onset of precip, with
precip not really making it into the southern and far western
portions of the area until closer to daybreak Wednesday, and
then precip will overspread the area from southwest to northeast
by midday Wednesday.

Low pressure redevelops over the mid-atlantic late Wednesday,
and passes over nj Wednesday night before moving out to sea on
Thursday.

Ptype issues will be abundant with this system. Precip starts
out as accumulating snow late Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning. As the afternoon progresses, the high moves towards
cape cod, allowing winds to shift to more of an easterly flow,
then more of a southeast flow. Although there should be good cad
initially, the position of this high allows for some warmer air
at both the surface and in the midlevels to lift in from the
south. Snow becomes a wintry mix for southern new jersey, the
delaware valley, including philly, and DELMARVA early Wednesday
afternoon, but snow continues for northern nj, the lehigh
valley, and the southern poconos through at least the daytime
hours Wednesday. Going through Wednesday evening, precip changes
to plain rain for delmarva, while precip becomes rain and sleet
for much of southern nj and southeast pa, eventually becoming
plain rain. For the northern half of the forecast area, as well
as far western zones, expecting a prolonged period of sleet and
freezing rain that will result in accumulating ice Wednesday
night. Will continue to monitor potential for at least winter
weather advisories with this system.

By Thursday morning, precip eventually becomes all rain before
tapering off behind the departing low.

High pressure then builds back in from the north and west. A
frontal boundary seems to set up across the mid-atlantic, and
several waves of low pressure will pass along this boundary,
likely staying south of the region through the end of the work
week.

The high moves overhead on Friday, then offshore for the
weekend. Another storm system may lift in from the south and
west next weekend.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

This afternoon... Increasing clouds. Light E to SE winds.

Tonight... Lowering CIGS and then vsbys with precipitation
arriving 00 01z (west) and 02z 03z (east). P-type: rain expected
at kmiv kacy with mostly snow sleet freezing rain at kabe krdg.

The delaware valley will have mostly a mix of snow sleet
initially, then a change to rain overnight. Ifr CIGS expected
shortly after precip arrives and will remain through the night.

Winds E to SE at 5 to 10 knots.

Monday... The precipitation will be ending across the eastern
areas during the morning and improving CIGS and vsbys will
continue. Any ifr MVFR conditions will improve toVFR during the
morning as drier air arrives on a moderate west wind.VFR will
likely return to the delaware valley (and phl) around 13z 14z
time frame. TheVFR will remain for the rest of the day once it
arrives. Wind speeds will increase during the afternoon with
some g25 expected.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...VFR. NW winds 10 kt or less. High
confidence.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...VFR will become MVFR
late Tuesday night and then become MVFR ifr as snow, rain, and a
wintry mix move through the terminals. Northeast to east winds
around 10 knots or less. Low confidence with respect to
precipitation type.

Thursday... MVFR or lower conditions in the morning, improving
toVFR late in the day. West to northwest winds around 10
knots. Moderate confidence.

Friday...VFR. N winds 5-10 kt.

Marine
Tonight... Sub-sca conditions with E to SE winds around 10-12
knots. Rain developing with snow possible across the northern
waters.

Monday... Sub-sca early then increasing west northwest winds and
building seas with SCA flag for the afternoon. Rains ending
during the morning then fair.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday... SCA continues through Monday
night before diminishing by early Tuesday morning. Seas
generally around 2 to 4 feet, subsiding some through the night.

Wednesday through Wednesday night... East winds increasing to
15-20 kt. Vsby restrictions in snow, then a wintry mix, then
rain by Wednesday night. Seas possibly building to SCA levels
Wednesday night.

Thursday... Potential for SCA level seas on the ocean waters.

Otherwise, sub-sca conditions.

Friday... Sub-sca conditions.

Tides coastal flooding
A subtle onshore flow will continue through much of the night.

Tidal departures around this morning's high tide were generally
in the +0.7 to +0.9 foot range, a bit higher than originally
anticipated. The onshore flow and the decreasing atmospheric
pressure should cause those departures to increase by a few
tenths of a foot by Monday morning's high tide.

We are now anticipating some advisory level minor flooding in
coastal areas of new jersey and delaware on Monday morning. We
have issued a coastal flood advisory that is in effect from 5:00
am until 11:00 am.

It appears as though at least some spotty minor flooding may
occur with the morning high tides into the mid week period. We
will continue to monitor the water level trends.

The full moon occurs on Tuesday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est Monday for paz054-055-
060>062-101>103-105.

Nj... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est Monday for njz001-
007>010.

Coastal flood advisory from 5 am to 11 am est Monday for
njz012>014-020-022>027.

De... Coastal flood advisory from 5 am to 11 am est Monday for
dez002>004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon Monday to 6 am est Tuesday for
anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Davis o'hara
short term... Davis o'hara
long term... Mps
aviation... Iovino o'brien o'hara
marine... Davis mps o'hara
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 15 mi36 min E 1.9 G 1.9 39°F 39°F1013.8 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 22 mi36 min 1014.2 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 24 mi36 min 39°F 39°F1014.5 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 30 mi42 min NNW 4.1 G 4.1 40°F 40°F1014.1 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 33 mi36 min ESE 5.1 37°F 1013 hPa35°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi36 min ESE 6 G 7 36°F 38°F1013.4 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 37 mi96 min SW 1 37°F 1015 hPa37°F
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 45 mi76 min 42°F3 ft1013 hPa (-3.3)

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ11 mi71 minSE 37.00 miRain39°F37°F93%1014.7 hPa

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Last 24hrN11N8N9N9N6NE6N4NE8NE5E9E11E7E6NE3E6E7E7E6E8SE9SE9SE10SE3SE6
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Tide / Current Tables for Ingram Thorofare, New Jersey
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Ingram Thorofare
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Mon -- 12:31 AM EST     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:09 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:43 AM EST     4.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:19 PM EST     -0.82 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:17 PM EST     4.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.50.21.52.944.74.94.33.220.8-0.2-0.8-0.60.21.52.83.84.34.13.32.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Dennis Creek, Route 47 bridge, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Dennis Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:09 AM EST     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:10 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:19 AM EST     6.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:02 PM EST     -0.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:43 PM EST     4.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.3-0.2-0.9-0.60.31.63.14.65.76.36.15.13.31.3-0.2-0.8-0.50.41.62.94.14.84.94.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.