Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avalon, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 4:43PM Friday November 16, 2018 12:02 PM EST (17:02 UTC) Moonrise 2:35PMMoonset 12:43AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 941 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.gale warning in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
Today..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft until early morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 941 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Strong low pressure off the new england coast this morning will move northeastward, reaching nova scotia this evening. High pressure is expected to build into our region from the west for Saturday and Sunday. A cold front approaching from the northwest is anticipated to arrive on Sunday night with another cold front following on Tuesday. High pressure is expected for Wednesday and Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avalon , NJ
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location: 39.11, -74.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 161407
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
907 am est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
Strong low pressure off the new england coast this morning will
move northeastward, reaching nova scotia this evening. High
pressure is expected to build into our region from the west for
Saturday and Sunday. A cold front approaching from the northwest
is anticipated to arrive on Sunday night with another cold
front following on Tuesday. High pressure is expected for
Wednesday and Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The coastal storm continues to wrap up and pull away from the
region. Rains snow showers N E are diminishing. Headlines have
been taken down. Gusty W to NW winds up to 30 mph will continue
into the afternoon.

We are expecting a decrease in cloud cover today as the storm
moves farther away from our region.

Maximum temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the 40s, with
readings not getting above the 30s in the elevated terrain of
the poconos and far northern new jersey.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
Dry air will continue to build into our region from the west
for tonight. We are anticipating a mostly clear sky along with
a west wind around 5 to 10 mph.

Low temperatures are expected to range from the upper 20s to
the lower 30s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
We move into a relatively quieter pattern following the coastal
storm. The weekend looks fairly tranquil.

The strong area of low pressure associated with the coastal
storm that has contributed to the first real blast of winter
weather will continue to move away to our northeast, leading to
a cool, but fall-like stretch of weather Saturday and Sunday.

Cloud cover to the north across the poconos and northern new
jersey Saturday will slowly build southward through the weekend,
but conditions will remain dry. A subtle cold front surface
trough will move across the area Saturday afternoon, but we will
remain dry across the forecast area. While highs will still be
about ten degrees below average, it will feel nice compared to
today's well-below average high temperatures.

A cold front is expected to reach our region on Sunday night.

There may be some light snow and rain showers with the feature
from Sunday into Monday, mainly in eastern pennsylvania, and in
northern and central new jersey. High pressure should return for
the middle of the new week, building just to our south.

The normal high temperatures for the period range from the
middle 40s in the elevated terrain of the poconos to the middle
50s on the coastal plain. Highs will remain on the cool side
throughout the area next week, with Monday likely being the
warmest day ahead of the cold front with highs ranging from the
upper 30s in the poconos to low 50s over southern delaware.

Highs look remain generally below 50 across the forecast area
throughout the remainder of next week.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Lingering MVFR at kacy and kmiv through about 15z, then
improvement toVFR.VFR elsewhere for the remainder of the day.

West northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts into the 30s.

Tonight...VFR, mainly clear. West wind 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday-Saturday night...VFR conditions.

Sunday-Monday...VFR conditions expected with a chance of
showers.

Monday night-Tuesday... GenerallyVFR conditions expected.

Marine
The last of the storm warning was allowed to expire at 6:00 am.

A gale warning is in effect until 4:00 pm for the coastal
waters of new jersey and delaware. A gale warning is in effect
for delaware bay until 1:00 pm. Wind speeds will be slow to
decrease as the strong area of low pressure moves northeastward
and away from our region. The wind direction on our waters will
settle into the west northwest.

Outlook...

Saturday-Tuesday... Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels with west-northwest winds 10-15 knots.

Tides coastal flooding
The storm surge increased to 3+ feet along the central and
northern parts of the new jersey coast out ahead of the coastal
storm overnight. As a result, there was minor coastal flooding
with some localized moderate flooding.

Fortunately, the astronomical tides are quite low as we are at
the first quarter phase of the moon. If the 3+ foot surge took
place around the time of a new or full moon, we would have been
experiencing moderate to major flooding.

The overnight high tide should be the only cycle of concern.

The wind is forecast to be westerly for this afternoon's high
tide, pushing water away from the coast.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for anz450>455.

Gale warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Iovino po
short term... Iovino
long term... Davis iovino
aviation... Iovino robertson po
marine... Iovino robertson
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 15 mi33 min NW 22 G 27 45°F 51°F1010 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 22 mi39 min WNW 15 G 27 1010.6 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 24 mi33 min 46°F 53°F1008.9 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 30 mi33 min WNW 22 G 30 46°F 52°F1010.8 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 33 mi33 min W 9.9 41°F 1008 hPa31°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi33 min WNW 19 G 23 45°F 50°F1009.9 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 37 mi93 min W 7 44°F 34°F
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 45 mi73 min 57°F8 ft1010.5 hPa (+3.1)

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ11 mi68 minWNW 12 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F35°F68%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW10NW8
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NW56N46N4N5NE7N6N9NE9NE7N9N8N9N9NE10NE85E8NE8E8E9
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Tide / Current Tables for Ingram Thorofare, New Jersey
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Ingram Thorofare
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Fri -- 02:16 AM EST     3.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:28 AM EST     1.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:28 PM EST     3.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:04 PM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.633.33.22.72.11.71.31.11.11.52.12.83.33.63.53.12.41.81.20.80.60.81.4

Tide / Current Tables for Sluice Creek, Route 47 bridge, Dennis Creek, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Sluice Creek
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Fri -- 04:32 AM EST     4.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:13 AM EST     1.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:48 PM EST     4.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:02 PM EST     0.85 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.233.84.24.23.83.22.31.61.21.31.82.53.44.24.854.63.92.91.91.10.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.