Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avalon, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:40PM Monday November 20, 2017 8:31 AM EST (13:31 UTC) Moonrise 9:29AMMoonset 7:35PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 624 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..SW winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Mainly in sw swell with a dominant period of 12 seconds.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 11 seconds. A chance of rain after midnight. Rain likely late.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 624 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure over the southern mississippi river valley will build east, then move off the mid-atlantic coast tonight. A cold front will approach Tuesday night and pass through the area on Wednesday. At the same time, low pressure over the southeast portion of the country will approach the mid-atlantic and move out to sea. High pressure will build through the area by the end of the work week. A cold front is expected to pass through on Saturday, with high pressure gradually building east early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avalon , NJ
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location: 39.11, -74.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 201122
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
622 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the southern mississippi river valley will build
east, then move off the mid-atlantic coast tonight. A cold front
will approach Tuesday night and pass through the area on Wednesday.

At the same time, low pressure over the southeast portion of the
country will approach the mid- atlantic and move out to sea. High
pressure will build through the area by the end of the work week. A
cold front is expected to pass through on Saturday, with high
pressure gradually building east early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
630 am update: I added some flurries to areas generally north of
i-80 for the next couple of hours based on the stubborn remains
of a lake-effect band in this general vicinity early this
morning. Made some adjustments to sky cover, though I am worried
the grids are overly optimistic early this morning for the
northern cwa. A more pessimistic forecast may be required should
current satellite trends continue.

Impressive vort MAX moving through the region at this time with deep
northwesterly flow very effectively streaming sufficient moisture
from the great lakes southeastward into northern portions of the cwa
the past few hours. Several snow showers have developed in this
regime, with even some bursts of moderate snow and brief, gusty
winds with some of them given the favorably deep low-level
thermodynamic profiles and strong winds aloft. The snow showers are
now on the wane, mainly confined to northern new jersey as of 2:30
am. Another streamer is moving into the southern poconos, so a
couple more hours of occasional snow showers are expected. However,
as the lift diminishes thanks to the departing wave, should see snow
showers mainly confined to areas farther north west of the CWA by
daybreak. As such, I have no pops in the forecast after 8 am.

Surface high pressure should progress eastward to the carolinas this
afternoon, with midlevel flow becoming somewhat more zonal upstream
of the vort max. A fairly strong north-south pressure gradient will
exist today as a strong surface low meanders in the maritime
provinces. Thus, another breezy day should be expected, albeit far
less windy than yesterday.

Clouds have been stubborn to dissipate in the northern western cwa
as the low levels are dry enough (and mixing strong enough) to
maintain a scattered to broken deck around 4000-6000 feet. However,
as deep-layer descent increases today, there should be noticeably
clearer skies than yesterday. Temperatures will be below average as
cold air advection continues this morning before winding down later
today. Expect highs around 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages.

There is very good agreement among the statistical guidance, so used
a blend for MAX temperatures.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
The surface high will progress offshore to our south tonight, and
midlevel flow will become more southwesterly as a vort MAX digs
southeastward into the upper midwest by 12z Tuesday. Low-level warm-
air advection should be in full swing by the overnight hours, and
this will prevent much of a fall in temperatures, despite the
lighter winds and mostly clear skies expected.

Once again, statistical guidance is in good agreement regarding
temperatures, so a blend was used for lows. Generally expecting
readings around average. Temperatures may actually flatline
relatively early in the night as warm-air advection increases via
increasingly more favorable low-level trajectories.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
High pressure over the mid-atlantic is expected to move off the mid-
atlantic coast on Tuesday. Return flow sets up, and highs on Tuesday
will be about 3-5 degrees above normal, topping off in the 40s in
the poconos, otherwise in the low to mid 50s north and west of i-95,
and near 60s in the DELMARVA and southern nj. S to SW winds increase
Tuesday afternoon to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

Low pressure is expected to develop over the gulf coast on Tuesday,
move off the southeast u.S. Coast Tuesday night, then approach the
mid-atlantic coast before moving out to sea on Wednesday. A cold
front will pass through the region Wednesday afternoon. Based on
latest model guidance, will continue a swath of likely pops across
southern de and southeast nj, and chance pops for most areas south
and east of the fall line. Cooler temps will move into the poconos
Wednesday afternoon, but stronger CAA will not get underway until
Wednesday night.

Chilly high pressure builds through the region thanksgiving day
with temperatures 6-8 degrees below normal. Highs top off in
the mid and upper 30s in the poconos, otherwise in the low to
mid 40s.

High pressure reestablishes itself over the area Friday with
highs a few degrees warmer than Thursday.

Low pressure passing well north of the region will drag a cold
front through the region on Saturday, and then low pressure remains
over eastern canada through next weekend even as surface high
pressure begins building in from the west. Unsettled weather
possible.

Aviation 11z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with west winds increasing to 10 to 15 kts with gusts to
25 kts. Confidence above average.

Tonight...VFR with west winds decreasing quickly after sunset and
likely becoming southwesterly with time. Speeds generally below 10
kts. Confidence above average.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR. SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt Tuesday
afternoon.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... MainlyVFR. Rain possible south
and east of i-95 Tuesday night through Wednesday morning with
MVFR or lower conditions. SW winds 5-10 kt become NW Wednesday
afternoon and increase to 10-20 kt.

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR. NW winds gradually
diminishing. A storm system is currently expected to remain
offshore. Forecast confidence: medium to high.

Friday...VFR. NW winds 5-10 kt.

Saturday...VFR early... Then MVFR or lower conditions possible in
rain showers later in the day. SW winds 10-15 kt.

Marine
630 am update: lower delaware bay wind gusts are currently
borderline gale, which has not been well forecast by the
guidance early this morning. The trend will be downward this
morning, so kept everything as is for now. Nevertheless, if
there is another uptick in wind gusts early this morning, may
need to issue a marine weather statement for a couple of hours.

Gale warning was dropped, as gusts above 34 kts have not been
observed in the past couple of hours. Trend with the winds will be
downward today, but small craft advisory conditions will continue
through the morning for delaware bay and the delaware coastal waters
and through much of the day off the new jersey coast.

There will likely be a brief lull in winds off the new jersey coast
late this afternoon and this evening before southwest winds pick up
again overnight. For this reason, kept the small craft advisory
going through Monday night.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Tuesday night... Brief lull in SCA conditions through
Tuesday morning. Otherwise, 25-30 kt wind gusts, primarily on the
ocean waters, may possibly over lower de bay Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday... Lull in SCA conditions possible Wednesday morning.

Otherwise, winds shift to the NW and increase to 15-20 kt with
25-30 kt gusts.

Thursday through Saturday... Sub-sca conditions expected.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Tuesday for anz450>453.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for anz430-
431-454-455.

Synopsis... Miketta
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Miketta
aviation... Cms miketta
marine... Cms miketta


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 15 mi44 min NW 22 G 28 42°F 47°F1020.1 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 22 mi50 min NW 22 G 29 41°F 1020.7 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 30 mi50 min NW 21 G 24 41°F 50°F1020.7 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 33 mi62 min SW 4.1 36°F 1019 hPa24°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi44 min W 16 G 18 40°F 52°F1020.3 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 37 mi62 min W 1.9 37°F 1021 hPa20°F
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 45 mi42 min WNW 21 G 27 44°F 59°F6 ft1020.6 hPa (+3.8)30°F

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--N5N6N5N6N5N5N5N5N8N9N11NW8N9N8NW10
G14
N9N6N5N5N5N6N7N7
1 day agoN3CalmN5N4N3N4NW3NW4N5W45NW4----N6--NW7N6--6N6N6--N5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmN3N5N3CalmN5W5NW43N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ingram Thorofare, Townsends Inlet, New Jersey
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Ingram Thorofare
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Mon -- 02:45 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:58 AM EST     4.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:31 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:35 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:19 PM EST     3.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.60.90.40.20.61.52.63.64.34.54.33.52.51.50.70.20.20.71.52.43.13.53.42.9

Tide / Current Tables for Sluice Creek, Route 47 bridge, Dennis Creek, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Sluice Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:35 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:16 AM EST     5.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:21 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:36 PM EST     4.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.33.52.31.10.30.20.81.834.35.35.85.64.83.62.10.80.20.20.81.82.93.84.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.