Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 12:42 AM   Moonset 9:37 AM

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FXUS61 KILN 291803 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 203 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
Southerly flow will keep temperatures well above normal today.
Showers and thunderstorms will start to move into the area this afternoon and continue tonight into Tuesday as a cold front crosses the area. High pressure will then build in for midweek, offering a dry period. A chance for precipitation will return for the end of the week into the weekend with the approach of the next frontal system.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Clouds that pushed into the western part of the forecast area have been thinning although additional clouds upstream will move in before the afternoon is over. To the east of this area, a fairly extensive cumulus field has developed. Some light showers did briefly occur in the upper Miami Valley and west central Ohio.
Something comparable will continue to be possible to the west of I-75. Still expecting a few more degrees of temperature rise.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Axis of low level theta-e advection associated with 8H jet of 35-40 kts across the area this evening. Ongoing showers and embedded storms over the west late in the day. Instability decreases this evening, so as the axis of showers and thunderstorms progress east tonight the coverage of thunderstorms will decrease. Rain totals today and tonight will range from around and an inch in the west to a quarter to a half inch in the east. Lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Models solutions generally trending a little slower with the frontal system and therefore will keep the threat for showers and a chance for thunderstorms in the east Tuesday. Clouds look to decrease from west to east in the afternoon and pcpn chances diminish. Temperatures will be cooler with highs from 70 to 75.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Subtle H5 height rises begin to occur at the start of the period.
Weak high pressure at the surface will be in place across the Ohio Valley. Surface flow will shift from the west-northwest back to the southwest for Wednesday. This, combined with the H5 ridge becoming more amplified will lead to a spike in temperatures, with most locations reaching 80 degrees again. Dry conditions and continued warming will carry into Thursday. Based on latest guidance, Thursday is now trending dry during the daytime hours for our entire CWA

Mean ridge axis begins to shift east of our CWA Thursday night, gradually replaced by a longwave trough. PoPs increase substantially as we progress into Friday. There is better consensus amongst long range models of Friday receiving the highest QPF from this system.
Chances for rain may linger into Friday night as a surface cold front gradually moves through. Uncertainty then remains on PoPs for Saturday depending on how the upper flow regime orients itself.
However, temperatures will certainly trend lower on Saturday.

There is a signal of a shortwave trough that ejects northeast from the Ark-La-Tex region late Sunday into Monday. This will bring another shot of wetter weather to the Ohio Valley, but timing remains uncertain.

AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR will continue through the early part of the TAF period with south winds gusting to around 20 kt. Showers will spread across the region after 00Z. Cannot rule out some thunder, but the chance of occurrence at any one location was too low to include in the TAFs. Initially, conditions will remain VFR, but eventually ceilings and visibilities will lower to MVFR with most locations experiencing IFR ceilings sometime after 05Z.
Showers will end from west to east after 09z and some improvement in ceilings will occur late in the period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday afternoon.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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