Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Delhi Hills, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:53PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 2:59 AM EDT (06:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:02AMMoonset 5:23PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delhi Hills, OH
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location: 39.11, -84.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 230551
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
151 am edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the region tonight
and Tuesday. Rain chances will increase as low pressure
approaches the region from the southwest late Tuesday night,
and then moves north through the area Wednesday. Rain showers
may linger on Thursday, as the low begins to move east and
cooler conditions return to the area.

Near term /until 6 am this morning/
Center of surface ridge over the upper ohio valley this evening
will move to southern new england by Tuesday morning. Its ridge
axis will continue to extend into our region into Tuesday.

Satellite imagery shows enhanced cirrus shield moving up from
the southwest should encompass the region tonight. As a result,
have increased sky percentage to allow for mostly cloudy
conditions. Overnight lows will dip into the lower 50s.

Short term /6 am this morning through 6 pm Wednesday/
Jet energy will dig south across the northern plains sharpening up a
trof Tuesday and eventually carving out an upper level low over the
mid ms vly Tuesday night. Expect to see an increase in high and
some mid level clouds during the daylight hours Tuesday. The digging
system will delay the eastward push of deep moisture and precipitation.

Expect Tuesdays highs to be close to normal, ranging from the lower
70s northwest to the mid 70s southeast.

Have opted for a slower onset of precipitation with low level
easterly flow. Have limited rain shower pops to chance category
spreading in from the southwest Tuesday night. Expect Tuesday
nights lows to be in the lower and middle 50s.

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/
On Wednesday morning, a deepening upper-level trough will be
gradually moving southeast into the middle mississippi valley
region, as southwesterly flow aloft becomes more established over
the southeastern states. As this trough closes into a low, surface
cyclogenesis is expected to occur in the lower ohio valley, with all
models now depicting a deepening surface low rotating north through
somewhere near the in/oh/ky corner during the first half of
Wednesday. Ahead of the surface low, widespread precipitation now
appears likely, so pops have been increased to 70 percent and will
likely have to go higher at some point in future forecasts. As
colder air moves in aloft near the upper low, steepening mid-level
lapse rates should allow for at least some instability to develop,
especially on the back edge of the main precipitation area. This
will allow for a chance of thunder, in a regime with forcing and
cyclonic turning associated with the surface low. This may allow for
a few organized storms, though marginal shear and instability values
make any level of severe threat very uncertain, and differences with
regards to the track of the surface low also preclude defining an
area for any potential risk. The forecast is always worth a second
look when assessing a deepening surface low moving through the area
in the spring. Will keep the hwo blank for now, but continue to
watch as additional model runs lock in the pressure patterns a
little closer.

A dry slot is expected to move into the area (particularly the
southeastern cwa) on Wednesday evening, as additional precipitation
becomes more focused in the higher theta-e air on the back side of
the upper low. This will bring another area of precipitation through
the iln CWA on Thursday, as the upper low passes overhead, perhaps
again providing some weak instability due to the cooler air aloft.

However, there is a wider range of solutions regarding the placement
of enhanced vorticity around the low on Thursday, so pops will be
kept on the lower end until agreement improves.

Both Wednesday and Thursday will see relatively cooler temperatures,
with highs in the 60s both days -- below normal for late may.

12z gfs/ecmwf runs have, interestingly, continued to trend faster
going into the weekend -- not just with the departure of the upper
low on Friday, but with additional precipitation chances beginning
early Saturday. Beyond that, model spread remains somewhat high for
the weekend forecast, as a series of shortwaves is expected to move
eastward across the region in the pseudo-zonal flow. At least
initially, it is likely that some sort of surface boundary will
exist across the region, with greater theta-e just to the south.

Though this may eventually shift northward, this pattern is one that
would support multiple rounds of showers and storms within an
increasingly moist air mass. Thus, there will be at least some
potential for both stronger storms as well as heavy / repeated
rainfall for Saturday and Sunday. Within the GEFS suite and from run-
to-run of the operational ecmwf/gfs, there are still big differences
in wave amplitude/timing, negating the ability to forecast the
specifics. For now, lower-end pops will be maintained through the
entire weekend (though this has been increased from the previous
forecast), with slightly above normal temperatures. This may come to
an end with a cold frontal passage late Sunday into Monday, leading
to drier conditions to start next week.

Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/
Surface ridge centered to the northeast will continue to
extend down across the tafs today. This will keep the low
levels dry. Stubborn cirrus will provide broken to overcast
ceilings into afternoon when it is expected to thin.

After 00z, the low levels start to moisten as vort MAX swings
around the closed h5 low in the mississippi valley. Pcpn started
to work into the the SW tafs, so added a vcsh to cvg at the end
of the period.

Outlook... MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday
into Thursday, and again Saturday.

Iln watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Hickman/ar
near term... Hickman
short term... Ar
long term... Hatzos
aviation... Sites


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY5 mi68 minE 310.00 miOvercast57°F46°F67%1014.3 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH10 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair51°F51°F100%1015.3 hPa
Butler County Regional Airport, OH18 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair51°F50°F96%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from CVG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13NW14
G22
NW6W5SW3CalmW6NW14NW8NW11NW6NW3Calm3SE43CalmSE5SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmE3
1 day agoSW7S4S8S11
G16
SW9S8S8S10S13S11S11SW8S11S7SW8S7SW6SW4SW4W6W7W9NW12NW12
2 days agoNE4E7NE8NE5NE8NE9E7E7E8E8SE6NE3CalmE7E11E10E14SE12W14
G32
SE10SE14
G20
SE11S4S11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.