Wednesday, November14, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Delhi Hills, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 5:25PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 2:58 PM EST (19:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:09PMMoonset 11:27PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delhi Hills, OH
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location: 39.11, -84.61     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 141728
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
1228 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

High pressure centered over the great lakes will move east
today. Low pressure traveling from the southwest will bring
wintry mix of precipitation tonight through Thursday. Dry
weather returns Friday with high pressure centered to the

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A very dry area of surface high pressure currently extends from
the middle mississippi valley eastward into the ohio valley and
southern great lakes. This high is forecast to move northeast
into the great lakes as the day progresses. A very compact area
of mid-level low pressure is currently located near texarkana,
and its circulation shows up very nicely on goes-e water vapor
and visible satellite imagery. This low is expected to move ene
today, before it eventually tracks east across kentucky on
Thursday. Ahead of the mid-level low, surface low pressure is
developing over the deep south, and it will move northeast along
the western edge of the appalachians heading into tomorrow.

Ahead of all of this, the iln CWA is currently in a regime of
southwest flow aloft, with a shield of high clouds spreading
across the area. Winds remain northeasterly at the surface,
however, reinforcing the dry air in the boundary layer (tds are
currently in the upper teens). Very little change to these
conditions is expected through the afternoon, though some mid-
level clouds will begin to move into the area by early evening.

The MAX temp forecast in the mid 30s still appears reasonable,
but if the high clouds remain thick through the afternoon, it is
possible that these values could be a couple degrees too high.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Although additional updates and details will be provided for
the overnight period of the forecast later today, some
adjustments were made based on 06z early 12z guidance, which
suggest that slightly warmer air will lead to less snow and a
little more freezing rain. No changes were needed to the winter
weather advisory, but some adjustments to snow and ice totals
were necessary.

Previous discussion >
a deepening closed upper low and surface trough will be pushing
toward the region from the southwest tonight, before moving up
into the iln area Thursday. A large swath of light precip will
develop in isentropic lift under an area of moisture transport
and divergence aloft ahead of the upper low. As the precip
develops and falls into a cold boundary layer featuring a
favorable easterly flow, expect a wintry mix of sleet, freezing
rain and snow to deposit light ice and snow accumulations
starting late this evening and continuing on Thursday. Wet bulb
effect and dynamic cooling will aid in wintry precip processes.

Precip should change to rain by Thursday afternoon as the
boundary layer warms above freezing from south to north. Expect
a few hundredths of an inch glaze and around an inch of snow to
result in hazardous travel conditions. Have issued winter
weather advisory for the light ice and snow accumulations.

Lows tonight just below freezing that will allow the light
wintry accumulations will be followed by Thursday afternoon
highs in the mid 30s to around 40 in slight warm advection,
probably ending the hazardous travel.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Mid upper level low over eastern ky to open up and pivot east into
the mid atlantic region by Friday morning. Lingering mixed pcpn to
change to snow prior to ending late Thursday night. Minor additional
snow accumulation of a half inch or less will be possible with the
best chance over the northeast counties. Expect lows from the upper
20s northwest to the lower 30s southeast.

Westerly mid upper level flow develops with surface high pressure
building across the area late in the week. This high will offer dry
weather Friday into Saturday. Expect highs Friday and Saturday from
the upper 30s northwest to the mid upper 40s southeast.

A secondary cold front to push south across the region later
Saturday into Sunday, offering a chance of rain and snow showers.

Qpf is light from this system and with weak forcing model solutions
show a good deal of spread regarding timing. Therefore, have limited
pops to slight chance low chance categories. Temperatures to
continue below normal with Sundays highs from the upper 30s
northwest to the mid 40s southeast.

Northwest flow develops with a large surface high pressure system
building across the ohio valley early next week. This will offer
dry weather with continued below normal temperatures.

Aviation 17z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions are expected through the afternoon and into the
evening, with northeast winds and increasing high and mid level
clouds. Precipitation onset is expected during the evening or
early overnight hours, and there is high confidence in a wintry
mix of precipitation types. The main precipitation type through
the overnight hours will be freezing rain, with a brief period
of sleet possible near the onset of precipitation. Conditions
should remainVFR even after precipitation begins overnight,
with a deterioration to MVFR and then ifr during the early
morning hours. There is high confidence in ifr ceilings, and
moderate confidence in MVFR to possibly briefly ifr

Freezing rain will change to rain during the morning hours, but
MVFR ifr conditions will continue through the day, even as
precipitation eventually becomes very light. Winds will be out
of the east during the morning, but will eventually begin a
clockwise shift during the afternoon.

Outlook... MVFR ifr ceilings and visibilities will continue
through Thursday night. MVFR ceilings may continue into Friday.

MVFR conditions are possible again on Sunday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to noon est
Thursday for ohz026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-

Ky... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to noon est
Thursday for kyz089>100.

In... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to noon est
Thursday for inz050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

Synopsis... Coniglio
near term... Hatzos
short term... Coniglio hatzos
long term... Ar
aviation... Hatzos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, KY5 mi67 minNE 1110.00 miOvercast31°F18°F59%1032.7 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH10 mi66 minNE 910.00 miFair33°F21°F61%1033.8 hPa
Butler County Regional Airport, OH18 mi66 minENE 1010.00 miFair32°F19°F59%1034.3 hPa

Wind History from CVG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW9N8
1 day agoE7E5NE4NE5N4N4CalmN4N7N10N9N8N7N7N8N6N7NW8NW10NW11N11N11N11NW10
2 days agoS6S6S4SE6E3CalmCalmSE3E4E3NE5CalmCalmN5E3CalmN3CalmE6NE5E5N5N8E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.