Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Round Hill, VA
May 7, 2024 4:05 PM EDT (20:05 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:02 AM Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 4:33 AM Moonset 7:02 PM |
ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 310 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Rest of this afternoon - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 310 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 071852 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 252 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms look to continue through Thursday as multiple fronts and waves of low pressure push across the area. A potent cold front will bring an increased threat for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding Thursday into Friday. Rain chances decrease into the weekend with cooler temperatures and less humidity as high pressure nears the region.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A stalled front nearby will maintain unsettled weather conditions heading into the middle of the workweek. Additional chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms exists each afternoon although the threat for organized severe weather threat remains low.
Scattered showers have developed in the vicinity of the stalled front. Based on satellite trends, it appears as if storms should continue to develop in the region of this front (generally along and east of the I-95 corridor) and then shift eastward. Thus far, we haven't seen any lightning. That being said, we are starting to see a few showers producing radar estimated amounts of around 1 inch per hour. Convection will be of the pulse variety or loosely organized heading into the afternoon and evening given abundant cloud cover/convective debris over the region.
More of a focus turns toward late tonight as a complex of storms will eject out of the Ohio River Valley. This convection will be in it's decaying phase as it works eastward. However, heading into Wednesday morning it could become a key player into how the severe weather and hydro threat pan out Wednesday afternoon.
As for the severe threat today, it will remain fairly isolated and confined to areas along and south of I-66/US-50. The primary threat with storms today will be locally damaging winds and isolated instances of flash flooding.
Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s with upper 60s over the Baltimore/Washington DC metro areas.
On Wednesday, the instability in the atmosphere will be greater given a few more breaks in the clouds due in part to west to southwest flow. This will allow for some downsloping and compressional warming especially east of the Blue Ridge. The combination of downsloping flow and subtle subsidence in the wake of the decaying MCS Wednesday morning may inhibit a widespread severe threat especially along and north of the I-66/US-50 corridor. Even with that said, scattered strong to severe storms remain possible with the biggest concerns west of Blue Ridge and down across the central VA Piedmont. The primary threat for storms will be damaging winds and localized flash flooding. Large hail up to 1" in diameter is also possible. Highs on Wednesday will soar into the mid to upper 80s across many lower elevation locations, with even a few areas potentially hitting 90 degrees. The mountains will be in the mid to upper 70s for the afternoon.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mid-level troughing continues to deepen Wednesday night into Thursday sending a potent cold front from the Ohio River Valley toward the region. As a result, expect increasing shower and thunderstorm chances late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as another impulse of energy ripples through. Flash flooding could become a concern here given the increased PWATS above climatology for this time of year combined with antecedent conditions from multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms earlier in the week.
There will be a break between the morning precipitation and the afternoon in which the atmosphere reloads especially in areas east of the Blue Ridge. Instability parameters increase by Thursday afternoon just ahead of the cold front, this will allow for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. Steep low- level lapse rates support large hail along with damaging winds with any of these storms. One caveat is that overall severe coverage may be limited with the enhanced cloud coverage (from the morning hours)
prior to initiation, but will continue monitor given the consistencies amongst SPC outlooks, CIPS analogues, and CSU probabilities over the last few days. Main threats with storms Thursday look to be damaging winds, large hail, and localized flash flooding.
Afternoon highs Thursday will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas. Northwest flow kicks in behind the cold front Thursday night and will bring lows in the 40s along the Allegheny Front with 50s further east.
A strong cold front will track through the area early Friday. While shower and thunderstorm chances linger, the threat for severe weather should diminish in the wake. After spending the previous couple of days in the 80s, temperatures will certainly cool off to finish out the work week. Friday's forecast highs are likely confined to the mid 60s to low 70s, locally falling into the 50s across mountain locales. Depending on how quickly showers come to an end, some late day clearing is not out of the question.
Northwesterly winds will be breezy at times with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph at times. Nighttime conditions will be cool with lows dropping into the mid 40s to low 50s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
This weekend into early next week will be a mixed bag given the cyclonic flow aloft. Each day is forecast to carry a risk for some isolated to scattered shower activity. High temperatures should be around 3 to 6 degrees below average. That is, mid 60s to low 70s for most, but with mainly 50s for the mountain regions. Compared to the humidity earlier in the week, it will feel much drier with dew points down in the 40s. In between disturbances, there will likely be some periods of sun, particularly by Sunday afternoon behind the next frontal system.
Expect temperatures to rebound into early next week as heights begin to build.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Predominantly VFR conditions continue with brief instances of sub- VFR ceilings with any showers/thunderstorms that impact the terminals through 00Z.
VFR conditions are most likely on Wednesday after early morning showers and thunderstorms move further east. Coverage of precipitation looks to be fairly limited on Wednesday. Light winds today will likely turn more westerly by Wednesday, gusting up to 20 knots for the afternoon.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday, with some strong to severe storms possible in the afternoon to evening at all terminals. Outside of thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions are likely though abundant cloud cover will be in place across the area.
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Friday and Saturday, although a passing shower could briefly drop conditions to sub-VFR either day. Winds will be out of the northwest on Friday, and then out of the west on Saturday.
MARINE
No marine hazards are expected outside of diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms today. SMWs may be needed as thunderstorms approach the waters later this afternoon and into the evening hours. A better focus for more organized thunderstorm activity looks to occur late tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will remain light while turning westerly on Wednesday, and may potentially near SCA levels across northern portions of the Bay.
SCA conditions are possible over most of the local waters Thursday and Friday due to southerly channeling. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday, with Special Marine Warnings likely needed as storms move through in the afternoon and early evening hours.
Small Craft Advisories are likely needed on Friday into Friday night as a strong cold front tracks across the waterways. Northwesterly winds behind this front will see a brief shift to southerlies on Saturday. However, another frontal system approaches late Saturday into Sunday. This is expected to bring another shot for Small Craft Advisories during the second half of the weekend.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal anomalies have decreased markedly from yesterday afternoon into the overnight hours. As a result, no flooding is expected with the next two tide cycles. Some of the more sensitive sites will reach Action stage during that time. Winds turn southerly tonight, which should allow anomalies to increase again. Some of the more sensitive sites may approach Minor flood stage with the tide cycle tomorrow morning. Thereafter, winds turn westerly for both Wednesday and Thursday, which should allow anomalies to decrease once again.ld be at sensitive locations in Annapolis and Straits Point that could reach minor flood during high tide early Tuesday morning, and again early Wednesday morning. Southerly winds increase Wednesday and Thursday, which could result in additional coastal flooding as tide levels rise again.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 252 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms look to continue through Thursday as multiple fronts and waves of low pressure push across the area. A potent cold front will bring an increased threat for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding Thursday into Friday. Rain chances decrease into the weekend with cooler temperatures and less humidity as high pressure nears the region.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A stalled front nearby will maintain unsettled weather conditions heading into the middle of the workweek. Additional chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms exists each afternoon although the threat for organized severe weather threat remains low.
Scattered showers have developed in the vicinity of the stalled front. Based on satellite trends, it appears as if storms should continue to develop in the region of this front (generally along and east of the I-95 corridor) and then shift eastward. Thus far, we haven't seen any lightning. That being said, we are starting to see a few showers producing radar estimated amounts of around 1 inch per hour. Convection will be of the pulse variety or loosely organized heading into the afternoon and evening given abundant cloud cover/convective debris over the region.
More of a focus turns toward late tonight as a complex of storms will eject out of the Ohio River Valley. This convection will be in it's decaying phase as it works eastward. However, heading into Wednesday morning it could become a key player into how the severe weather and hydro threat pan out Wednesday afternoon.
As for the severe threat today, it will remain fairly isolated and confined to areas along and south of I-66/US-50. The primary threat with storms today will be locally damaging winds and isolated instances of flash flooding.
Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s with upper 60s over the Baltimore/Washington DC metro areas.
On Wednesday, the instability in the atmosphere will be greater given a few more breaks in the clouds due in part to west to southwest flow. This will allow for some downsloping and compressional warming especially east of the Blue Ridge. The combination of downsloping flow and subtle subsidence in the wake of the decaying MCS Wednesday morning may inhibit a widespread severe threat especially along and north of the I-66/US-50 corridor. Even with that said, scattered strong to severe storms remain possible with the biggest concerns west of Blue Ridge and down across the central VA Piedmont. The primary threat for storms will be damaging winds and localized flash flooding. Large hail up to 1" in diameter is also possible. Highs on Wednesday will soar into the mid to upper 80s across many lower elevation locations, with even a few areas potentially hitting 90 degrees. The mountains will be in the mid to upper 70s for the afternoon.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mid-level troughing continues to deepen Wednesday night into Thursday sending a potent cold front from the Ohio River Valley toward the region. As a result, expect increasing shower and thunderstorm chances late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as another impulse of energy ripples through. Flash flooding could become a concern here given the increased PWATS above climatology for this time of year combined with antecedent conditions from multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms earlier in the week.
There will be a break between the morning precipitation and the afternoon in which the atmosphere reloads especially in areas east of the Blue Ridge. Instability parameters increase by Thursday afternoon just ahead of the cold front, this will allow for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. Steep low- level lapse rates support large hail along with damaging winds with any of these storms. One caveat is that overall severe coverage may be limited with the enhanced cloud coverage (from the morning hours)
prior to initiation, but will continue monitor given the consistencies amongst SPC outlooks, CIPS analogues, and CSU probabilities over the last few days. Main threats with storms Thursday look to be damaging winds, large hail, and localized flash flooding.
Afternoon highs Thursday will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas. Northwest flow kicks in behind the cold front Thursday night and will bring lows in the 40s along the Allegheny Front with 50s further east.
A strong cold front will track through the area early Friday. While shower and thunderstorm chances linger, the threat for severe weather should diminish in the wake. After spending the previous couple of days in the 80s, temperatures will certainly cool off to finish out the work week. Friday's forecast highs are likely confined to the mid 60s to low 70s, locally falling into the 50s across mountain locales. Depending on how quickly showers come to an end, some late day clearing is not out of the question.
Northwesterly winds will be breezy at times with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph at times. Nighttime conditions will be cool with lows dropping into the mid 40s to low 50s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
This weekend into early next week will be a mixed bag given the cyclonic flow aloft. Each day is forecast to carry a risk for some isolated to scattered shower activity. High temperatures should be around 3 to 6 degrees below average. That is, mid 60s to low 70s for most, but with mainly 50s for the mountain regions. Compared to the humidity earlier in the week, it will feel much drier with dew points down in the 40s. In between disturbances, there will likely be some periods of sun, particularly by Sunday afternoon behind the next frontal system.
Expect temperatures to rebound into early next week as heights begin to build.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Predominantly VFR conditions continue with brief instances of sub- VFR ceilings with any showers/thunderstorms that impact the terminals through 00Z.
VFR conditions are most likely on Wednesday after early morning showers and thunderstorms move further east. Coverage of precipitation looks to be fairly limited on Wednesday. Light winds today will likely turn more westerly by Wednesday, gusting up to 20 knots for the afternoon.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday, with some strong to severe storms possible in the afternoon to evening at all terminals. Outside of thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions are likely though abundant cloud cover will be in place across the area.
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Friday and Saturday, although a passing shower could briefly drop conditions to sub-VFR either day. Winds will be out of the northwest on Friday, and then out of the west on Saturday.
MARINE
No marine hazards are expected outside of diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms today. SMWs may be needed as thunderstorms approach the waters later this afternoon and into the evening hours. A better focus for more organized thunderstorm activity looks to occur late tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will remain light while turning westerly on Wednesday, and may potentially near SCA levels across northern portions of the Bay.
SCA conditions are possible over most of the local waters Thursday and Friday due to southerly channeling. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday, with Special Marine Warnings likely needed as storms move through in the afternoon and early evening hours.
Small Craft Advisories are likely needed on Friday into Friday night as a strong cold front tracks across the waterways. Northwesterly winds behind this front will see a brief shift to southerlies on Saturday. However, another frontal system approaches late Saturday into Sunday. This is expected to bring another shot for Small Craft Advisories during the second half of the weekend.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal anomalies have decreased markedly from yesterday afternoon into the overnight hours. As a result, no flooding is expected with the next two tide cycles. Some of the more sensitive sites will reach Action stage during that time. Winds turn southerly tonight, which should allow anomalies to increase again. Some of the more sensitive sites may approach Minor flood stage with the tide cycle tomorrow morning. Thereafter, winds turn westerly for both Wednesday and Thursday, which should allow anomalies to decrease once again.ld be at sensitive locations in Annapolis and Straits Point that could reach minor flood during high tide early Tuesday morning, and again early Wednesday morning. Southerly winds increase Wednesday and Thursday, which could result in additional coastal flooding as tide levels rise again.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC | 43 mi | 47 min | S 8G | 75°F | 69°F | 29.74 | ||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 61 mi | 35 min | S 6 | 78°F | 29.74 | 67°F | ||
| BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD | 64 mi | 47 min | SE 6G | 73°F | 68°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJYO LEESBURG EXECUTIVE,VA | 11 sm | 10 min | SSE 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 77°F | 68°F | 74% | 29.75 | |
| KIAD WASHINGTON DULLES INTL,VA | 20 sm | 13 min | S 08 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 81°F | 66°F | 62% | 29.73 | |
| KOKV WINCHESTER RGNL,VA | 20 sm | 10 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 75°F | 63°F | 65% | 29.74 | |
| KMRB EASTERN WV RGNL/SHEPHERD FLD,WV | 22 sm | 12 min | SSW 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 75°F | 63°F | 65% | 29.72 |
Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:40 AM EDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:29 AM EDT 3.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:34 PM EDT -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:03 PM EDT 3.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:40 AM EDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:29 AM EDT 3.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:34 PM EDT -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:03 PM EDT 3.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chain Bridge, D.C., Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 2.5 |
| 7 am |
| 3.4 |
| 8 am |
| 3.8 |
| 9 am |
| 3.8 |
| 10 am |
| 3.3 |
| 11 am |
| 2.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 3 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 3 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.4 |
Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:35 AM EDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:25 AM EDT 3.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:29 PM EDT -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:58 PM EDT 3.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:35 AM EDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:25 AM EDT 3.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:29 PM EDT -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:58 PM EDT 3.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C., Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 2.6 |
| 7 am |
| 3.4 |
| 8 am |
| 3.8 |
| 9 am |
| 3.8 |
| 10 am |
| 3.2 |
| 11 am |
| 2.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 3 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.3 |
Sterling, VA,
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