Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Strathmere, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:36PM Thursday December 13, 2018 6:19 PM EST (23:19 UTC) Moonrise 12:34PMMoonset 11:28PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 331 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of rain late.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Rain.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Rain.
Sat night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..NW winds around 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..NW winds around 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 331 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure centered off the coast of new england will move east and farther out to sea through tonight and Friday. Low pressure over the lower ms valley on Friday with move northeast into the mid- atlantic region over the weekend. This low will move away to the northeast on Monday, followed by high pressure through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Strathmere, NJ
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location: 39.13, -74.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 132128 cca
afdphi
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service mount holly nj
428 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis
High pressure centered off the coast of new england will move
east and farther out to sea through tonight and Friday. Low
pressure over the lower mississippi valley on Friday will move
northeast into the mid-atlantic region over the weekend. This low
will move away to the northeast on Monday, followed by high
pressure through the middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
The upper low that brought the clouds and light precip to the
northern parts of the CWA earlier today is moving off into new
england. A steady onshore flow remains in place behind the
feature since high pressure is still parked well NE of the area.

This flow will relax some tonight, but still be strong enough
to bring some low clouds and perhaps some light precip to the
higher elevations of the far N w. Temperatures are starting out
cold in the southern poconos and across sussex county nj, where
some freezing drizzle may develop. We issued an sps to highlight
the potential, but raised no wsw flags, since the precip should
be spotty and confid that it will occur is not great. Temperatures
will likely rise slowly through the night with lows in the low
30s N W and around 40 S e.

Short term Friday
Our area will be in a region of weak high pressure Friday. Low
clouds and any patchy drizzle will diminish through the morning.

Few breaks in the clouds are expected since the next system
will be approaching from the sw. There will be increasing
chances for rain during the afternoon. High temperatures will be
in the low 40s N W and in the low to mid 50s across delmarva
and the delaware valley. Winds will be light from the S or se.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
The first part of the long term will be dominated by a closed
upper low which is forecast to move rather slowly from the lower
ms valley northeastward across the mid-atlantic region through
Saturday and Sunday. Ahead of this low is a fairly long fetch of
moisture from the glfmex northward across the mid-atlantic.

Meanwhile a 180kt jet streak is forecast to develop from the
grtlks east across northern new england, leaving our area in the
right-rear entrance region with assocd uvv. The net result
should be substantial rain through the period from Friday night
through Sunday, with the heaviest rates likely from about
midnight Friday night to noon on Saturday. At that time the main
surface low remains well to our west, but a secondary low along
the DELMARVA shore with an associated coastal front could focus
heavier rain across that area.

Generally 1 to 2 inch amounts are expected over our area, which
would not likely produce widespread flooding. Higher amounts
are possible, especially if the 12z NAM or canadian models are
right, but the GFS and ECMWF still show the heaviest amounts to
our south across va and nc. Thus with limited confidence, no
flood watch was issued with this package, but the situation
certainly bears close monitoring. Also temperatures in the lower
levels of the atmosphere are forecast to be above freezing for
most of this event, thus only rain is expected. A possible
exception for some freezing rain is over far NW nj or the
poconos early Sunday morning, due to colder air filtering in
from the northeast at that time.

Monday through Thursday... This period looks to be fairly quiet.

Some light rain snow may linger, especially across the north,
through Monday afternoon but a drying trend is expected and any
amounts would be light. A cold front will push southward
through the region on Monday, which will cool temperatures a bit
as we head into Tuesday. High pressure builds into the area on
Tuesday and will persist through the middle of the week. Another
low pressure and associated frontal system could bring precip to
parts of the area by next Thursday.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of the afternoon... Some clearing has occurred over DELMARVA and
along the delaware valley this afternoon. A decent onshore flow can
be seen in the visible satellite pics with low clouds streaming nw
across coastal nj. We expect mostlyVFR conditions through the
evening with a chance that krdg or kabe may go MVFR around dusk.

Tonight... CIGS will likely decrease overnight with a continuation of
the onshore flow. The models and their respective MOS guidance are
rather different with regards to how low CIGS go. The NAM (as it
usually is) is more ifr with CIGS while GFS favors more MVFR. We
have mostly gone in the middle, which is already what may of the
previous tafs had. We will also mention some light fog in many of
the tafs and some drizzle (kabe only). Winds will be rather light
overnight. Confid in CIGS heights and timing to lower categories is
low moderate however.

Friday... Slow improvement to CIGS by mid-morning thenVFR thru the
rest of the day. Winds shifting to S by afternoon. Speeds will be
mostly under 10 knots. Lower clouds and rains expected later in the
evening.

Outlook...

Friday night through Sunday... MVFR ifr conditions expected with
periods of moderate to heavy rain, especially on Saturday. Some
light snow may mix in at krdg and kabe Sunday night. East to
northeast winds around 5 to 10 knots on Friday, with winds
around 10 to 15 knots on Saturday and Sunday with higher gusts
possible.

Monday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Light rain snow showers
possible early, mainly kabe and krdg. West to northwest winds around
10 to 15 knots.

Tuesday...VFR conditions expected, with gusty NW winds.

Marine
Winds increased through the day, but have remained below sca
criteria. These winds will continue tonight with some gusts to
around 20 knots, especially across the northern nj waters. Seas
will be 3 to 4 ft on the ocean and 1 or 2 ft across delaware
bay. Fair weather is expected tonight and Friday morning. A
chance for some rain arrives later Friday.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday... Small craft advisory conditions likely.

Seas will build reaching 5 feet on the southern waters by late
Saturday morning becoming 6 to 10 feet by Sunday, highest across
the northern waters. Northeast winds around 10 to 15 knots on
Saturday will increase through Saturday night becoming 15 to 20
knots on Sunday. Gale force gusts possible Saturday night or
Sunday.

Sunday night through Monday... Seas will decrease Sunday night
but remain above 5 feet through Monday on the ocean. Winds will
remain gusty out of the north to northwest around 15 to 20
knots with gale force gusts possible.

Tuesday... Winds and seas should be gradually diminishing but
could remain above SCA criteria for much of the day.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Amc
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Amc meola
aviation... Amc o'hara
marine... Amc o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 16 mi49 min 45°F 44°F1029.3 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 27 mi49 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 44°F 42°F1028.3 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 28 mi49 min NE 7 38°F 1028 hPa35°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 34 mi49 min 1029 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 41 mi49 min E 5.1 G 5.1 46°F 44°F1028.6 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi29 min 50°F2 ft1028.5 hPa (+0.8)
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 49 mi49 min E 9.9 G 9.9 43°F 41°F1028.4 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ23 mi24 minENE 510.00 miA Few Clouds43°F37°F82%1029.3 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ23 mi25 minE 610.00 miFair39°F37°F93%1028.9 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmE4SE5SE7SE7SE7E6SE9SE8E5E5E4E6
1 day agoSW3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmW3W6W7NW7NW7W6W7W9NW10NW9W9W7NW4NW7W4SW3SW3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3NW4NW4NW3NW4CalmN4N4NW4N4NW3CalmN5NW5W3CalmW4W5W4W5

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Thorofare, Ocean Drive bridge, New Jersey
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Middle Thorofare
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Thu -- 05:16 AM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:50 AM EST     3.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:00 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:28 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.82.11.410.70.81.222.73.23.53.63.32.61.710.50.40.61.11.82.42.8

Tide / Current Tables for Strathmere, Strathmere Bay, New Jersey
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Strathmere
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Thu -- 05:24 AM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:50 AM EST     3.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:08 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:28 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.82.21.510.70.81.21.92.63.23.53.63.32.71.81.10.60.40.511.82.42.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.