Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Church Hill, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:51PM Saturday February 23, 2019 4:49 PM EST (21:49 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 9:26AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 339 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect Sunday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening...
Rest of this afternoon..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt... Becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 45 kt... Diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Waves 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt...diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 339 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will approach the middle mississippi river valley tonight, strengthening as it moves northeastward across the great lakes into canada through Sunday. High pressure will build from the northern great plains toward the great lakes and eventually into the northeast through the first half of next week. Gale conditions are likely overnight Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Hill, MD
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location: 39.15, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 232056
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
356 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
A powerful storm system tracking through the great lakes will bring
rain to the area tonight and tomorrow. A cold front will cross the
region late tomorrow, with very strong winds behind it on Sunday
night and Monday. High pressure builds in with cooler and dry
weather for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. A weak frontal system
may bring some light rain or snow late Wednesday into Thursday.

Additional unsettled weather is likely for the end of the week
as another storm system develops nearby.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Surface high pressure centered off the new england coast will
continue to move offshore overnight as a weak low pressure system
from the coastal carolinas moves toward the mid-atlantic region.

Meanwhile, a warm front associated with a stronger low pressure
system moving through the great lakes region is expected to
reinvigorate the coastal low during the late overnight hours,
allowing warmer air... Both aloft and at the surface... To surge
northward, which in turn will slow, then reverse the normal
nighttime downward trend in temperatures across the forecast
area. This will result in above-freezing temperatures overnight
for most locations except for the far northern counties
(carbon monroe sussex)where a few hours of subfreezing
temperatures could result in a period of freezing rain,
especially at the higher elevations. However, confidence for ice
accumulation is not high enough at this time to issue a winter
weather advisory.

Rain will start out on the light side, but then pick up and become
heavy at times during the late overnight hours as an onshore flow
interacts with lift associated with the advancing warm front,
secondary low pressure system, and an upper level jet. The heaviest
totals (1 to 1.5 inches) are expected across the DELMARVA and
southern nj, with up to 1 inch possible north of the fall line
(eastern pa, northern and central nj). With 3-hour FFG values near
or over 2 inches in the south, and between 1.5 and 2.0 inches in the
north, flood watches have not been issued. However, given the
expected synoptic situation, convective-like downpours are possible
which may result in rainfall rates high enough to produce localized
flash flooding in a few spots. In addition to all this, a few
rumbles of thunder are also possible.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
Heavy rain will gradually subside during the morning hours as the
warm front lifts northeast and its companion cold front pushes in
from the west. Easterly winds will shift to the south, with
temperatures surging into the upper 50s to near 60 south and even
into the low 50s in the north. Then as the cold front moves through
starting in the early afternoon hours in the west, the wind will
abruptly shift to the west, and temperatures will begin to fall.

Winds could gust to around 55 mph in the post cold front environment
in the north, and these gusts, in combination with soggy ground,
could result in downed trees... Especially in the higher elevations.

A high wind warning has been posted for this area for Sunday
afternoon through most of Monday. Strong winds may be delayed into
the evening hours further south, so a high wind watch remains in
effect for those areas.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Sunday night through Monday... The winds ramp up on Sunday night as
the upper jet crosses the region. Winds aloft are impressive and
around 140-200 kt at 500mb as the jet rolls through. Even winds at
850mb are strong and in the 60-80 kt range. While winds aloft are
especially robust, we won't be seeing the strongest of them mixing
down to the surface as the timing is just not right for ideal mixing
to occur. However, expect a good deal of wind to make it to the
surface in the strong cold air advection and it will remain quite
gusty overnight and then continue through Monday. Winds will start
to come down through the day on Monday as the gradient starts to
weaken some.

High wind warning is in effect for portions of nj and pa through 6pm
mon as confidence is higher that we will reach 50 mph gusts or
greater. We keep a high wind watch up for the rest of the areas
where confidence is a bit lower. This will allow us a chance to get
a better look at the new data and then decide if a warning or
advisory would be the way to go. Either way, be sure to secure any
loose items outside as they will be sure to blow around in these
winds.

In addition to the gusty winds, some pretty cold air will move into
the region. While it won't be the coldest air we have seen this year
so far, it will drop temperatures on average around 20 degrees from
Sunday to Monday. Highs on Monday will be in the 30s north and west
of the i-78 corridor and in the 40s through the i-95 corridor and
points south and east.

As we head into Tuesday, we see a relatively dry period start across
the region. High pressure will build across the mid-atlantic through
midweek, eventually crossing just to the north of our area. At this
point the models start to diverge and show varying solutions as to
what will affect the region. The ECMWF is stronger with the high and
has it taking its time as it crosses the area, moving to the north
and then offshore on Thursday. This solution would keep us dry
through much of the week. The GFS has the high crossing to the north
of the area on Wednesday with a clipper-type system moving quickly
through late Wednesday into Thursday. The canadian has a similar
solution to the GFS but there are enough differences in timing and
strength to throw some doubt into the forecast. While the atmosphere
appears to be pretty dry, don't expect much would fall to the ground
in the GFS scenario but since the pattern is unsettled at this
point, we will continue to mention at least a slight chance of
precipitation through the midweek period and then see if the models
can become better aligned in the coming days.

For the end of the week, there is the potential for a coastal storm
to develop off of the southeastern us coast. Models keep it offshore
but another low inland over the ohio valley will track into our
area, bringing the chance for another round of wintry
precipitation.

Aviation 21z Saturday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through sunset...VFR with bkn-ovc mid and high cloudiness. Light
winds, primarily between east and south directions. High confidence.

Tonight... Conditions deteriorating to sub-vfr (and likely ifr or
worse late tonight) with chances of rain increasing as the night
wears on. Moderate to heavy rain possible after midnight, and a
rogue lightning strike cannot be ruled out (though chances are too
low for TAF inclusion at this point). Light east to northeast winds.

Southerly southeasterly llws probable, especially after midnight.

Moderate confidence on overall evolution and surface winds llws; low
confidence on category timing.

Sunday... Rain becoming more showery during the morning. Low
cigs vsbys and east southeast winds around 10 kts will likely
continue through early afternoon before winds switch to southwest
and increase to 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts. Conditions should
becomeVFR quickly after the wind switch. Southerly southwesterly
llws possible before the wind shift. Low confidence. Cannot
completely rule out lightning with any rain showers, but confidence
is not high enough for TAF inclusion.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...VFR. West northwest winds 10 to 20 kts
with gusts to 40 kts possible Sunday night, increasing to 20 to 30
kts with gusts 45+ kts possible Monday. Moderate confidence.

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR with northwest winds 5 to 15 kts.

High confidence.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night... Rain snow showers with sub-
vfr conditions possible. Light winds. Low confidence.

Thursday...VFR with northwest winds 5 to 15 kts, with possibly
higher gusts. Moderate confidence.

Marine
Sub-advisory conditions exist on the waters currently and should
remain this way through tonight. However, conditions will
deteriorate quickly on Sunday as onshore flow tonight becomes more
southerly during the day. Advisory conditions should commence on the
atlantic waters during the morning. Winds will continue to veer to
southwest or west by afternoon. By this point, advisory-level winds
are anticipated on delaware bay.

The only change to the small craft advisory was to change the start
time for delaware bay to noon. Otherwise, the advisory continues
through 6 pm, with gales commencing as winds shift to westerly
thereafter.

Periods of rain will occur tonight and tomorrow, with visibility
restrictions probable and possibly even some embedded convection as
well. Given the strong winds aloft, erratic strong wind gusts may
occur with the more showery precipitation on Sunday. A few lightning
strikes cannot be ruled out.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday... Very strong west winds will develop Sunday
night and Monday, with gales likely everywhere and storm-force winds
possible (especially off the coast of northern new jersey). The gale
watch for delaware bay and the southern nj de atlantic waters was
upgraded to a gale warning, and the storm watch continues for the
northern nj coastal waters for this period. With such strong
offshore winds, blowout tides are likely to occur, perhaps with the
Monday morning high tide but more likely with the Monday evening
high tide.

Monday night... Winds will rapidly diminish during this period, but
residual gale-force gusts are possible in the evening. At least
advisory-level winds are expected through the night.

Tuesday... Lingering advisory conditions possible, mainly over the
atlantic waters.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Sub-advisory winds seas
expected.

Hydrology
The majority of the rain will fall this evening through midday
Sunday.

Using the 1.00 to 1.50 of qpf, there are responses at our forecast
points. No flooding is currently forecast, but models do put some
crests near bankful. Over the weekend, keep an eye these forecast
points... The north branch rancocas at pemberton, the millstone river
at blackwells mills, the passaic river at millington and pine brook,
and the rockaway river at boonton. Outside of the passaic river,
flooding potential is low on our other mainstem rivers.

So as the event unfolds tonight, look for minor flooding across
areas of poor drainage and in low-lying areas. Some smaller creeks
that have been prone to high water the last six months will be prone
once again this weekend. This water will runoff make it into the
above mentioned larger creeks and streams on Saturday night. Rises
can be expected late tonight, Sunday, Sunday night, and maybe into
Monday. If flooding occurs at any of our forecast points, it appears
the flooding wouldn't initiate until Sunday night.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... High wind warning from 2 pm Sunday to 6 pm est Monday for
paz054-055-060>062-101-103-105.

High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for paz070-071-102-104-106.

Nj... High wind warning from 2 pm Sunday to 6 pm est Monday for
njz001-007>010.

High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for njz012>027.

De... High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for dez001>004.

Md... High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for mdz008-012-015-019-020.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Sunday for
anz450>455.

Gale warning from 6 pm Sunday to 6 pm est Monday for anz430-
431-452>455.

Storm watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
anz450-451.

Small craft advisory from noon to 6 pm est Sunday for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... O'brien
near term... Miketta
short term... Miketta
long term... Meola
aviation... Cms
marine... Cms
hydrology... Kruzdlo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 14 mi32 min E 6 G 8.9 39°F 39°F1025.8 hPa
CPVM2 23 mi32 min 39°F 39°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 28 mi32 min 38°F 1024.9 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 28 mi32 min E 5.1 G 8 39°F 39°F1026.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 28 mi32 min ESE 7 G 8.9 38°F 1025.3 hPa
FSNM2 28 mi38 min E 9.9 G 12 38°F 1024.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 29 mi50 min N 11 G 12 37°F 38°F1026.6 hPa (-3.0)37°F
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 30 mi140 min ENE 1.9 40°F 1028 hPa36°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 32 mi32 min ESE 7 G 9.9
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 35 mi32 min E 6 G 6 39°F 38°F1026.4 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 36 mi38 min 1026 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 37 mi32 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 39°F 35°F1026.4 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 40 mi38 min 41°F 41°F1025.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi140 min NE 2.9 38°F 1027 hPa35°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 48 mi32 min 1027 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD21 mi70 minNE 53.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist39°F39°F100%1026.7 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD24 mi60 minNE 53.00 miLight Rain43°F39°F87%1027.4 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4E4SW3SW3CalmNW3NW6NW8NW7NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Chestertown, Maryland
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Chestertown
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:12 AM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:25 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:14 AM EST     1.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:45 PM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:41 PM EST     1.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.80.3-0.1-0.3-0.30.10.61.21.71.91.81.510.50-0.2-0.3-0.10.30.81.31.71.7

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:36 AM EST     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:43 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:58 AM EST     1.05 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:26 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:15 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:17 PM EST     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:26 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:19 PM EST     0.76 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:10 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.9-1-0.8-0.40.10.60.910.90.60.1-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.20.20.60.70.70.50.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.