Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Church Hill, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:17PM Monday May 20, 2019 5:30 PM EDT (21:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:13PMMoonset 6:13AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ539 Chester River To Queenstown Md- 438 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
.gale warning in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am edt Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
ANZ500 438 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the area this afternoon and early evening. High pressure will dominate in its wake through the middle portion of the week. A warm front will lift north through the area Wednesday night and linger near the mid atlantic to finish out the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Hill, MD
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location: 39.15, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 201930
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
330 pm edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
Behind a cold front, high pressure will bring dry and pleasant
weather Tuesday and Wednesday. A warm frontal passage is likely
Wednesday night, followed by a cold front Thursday night. High
pressure will again be nearby Friday and into Saturday. By the
weekend, another frontal system will be approaching. A cold front
will likely cross the region late Saturday and potentially stall to
our south on Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
A very warm hot and also humid afternoon in progress with some areas
closing in on 90 degrees, however the dew points have dropped a
little mainly along the i-95 corridor.

An upper-level trough will continue to shift eastward through
tonight from the great lakes, adjacent canada and new england. Low
pressure will track well to our north, however its cold front
crosses our region through early this evening. As the cold front
arrives, it may combine with a lee side trough. The convection
allowing models (cams) generally agree that convection continues to
develop, especially around the philadelphia metro southwestward. In
addition, some other convection will continue to develop especially
near terrain influences and near the residual lee side trough. As of
19z, only some showers with no lightning being detected as
convective development is shallow thus far. Visible satellite
imagery does show some taller cumulus near and west of i-95. For now
went no higher than scattered convection (chance pops), as the
overall organization should be lacking.

The latest mesoscale analysis shows around 500-1000 j kg of mlcape
and this should increase to around 1500 j kg by late afternoon. The
0-3km shear ranges from 30-40 knots with the strongest across the
far northern areas. Some strong storms are anticipated with a few
potentially going severe. There is some dry air aloft and combined
with steeper low-level lapse rates results in better dcape and
potentially strong surface winds. Locally strong to damaging wind
gusts are possible, however this threat looks to be with any robust
convective cores as precipitation loading will enhance the
downdraft. There is not a lot of forcing, thus convection will be
driven by the airmass and the incoming surface front. Once the cold
front shifts offshore early this evening, the convection will end
with clearing taking place. Cold air advection increases in the wake
of the cold front, and this should keep some wind going from the
northwest. This will also result in a cooler overnight, especially
as the dew points drop into the 40s for much of the region by
daybreak. Low temperatures are mainly a MOS continuity blend.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
An upper-level trough across the northeast will keep some cyclonic
flow in place, while a ridge begins to build into the central great
lakes. Surface high pressure centered near the central great lakes
will build or extend toward our area through the day Tuesday. The
combination of some cold air advection, a pressure gradient present
and deeper mixing will result in a breezy day. The airmass looks
rather dry, therefore while plenty of sunshine is expected there may
be some boundary layer heating driven stratocumulus.

High temperatures are a MOS continuity blend, however some of the
model guidance 2-meter temperatures are a few degrees colder. Given
the stronger offshore flow, a sea breeze is not expected and
therefore not much difference in temperatures from the coast to just
inland.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
Overview...

a rather stagnant big picture pattern remains in place for the
duration of this week and into the holiday weekend. It is the
familiar beat of "trough in the west, ridge in the southeast", and
the mid-atlantic sitting near the edge of the ridge. This pattern
will continue to favor periodic storm systems lifting out of the
plains and midwest, with occasional shower and storm chances in our
area as these lows lift off to the northeast. Timing the
disturbances is tricky given the vast amount of upstream convection
which tends to play havoc with the guidance. Tuesday night through
Wednesday look to be reliably dry with high pressure in control.

Thursday evening stands out as a more likely opportunity for showers
and storms, with probably another chance towards Saturday. The
Thursday system should be watched, as the environment late in the
day Thursday looks rather conducive to severe weather. Shower and
storm chances for the weekend currently look more garden variety as
the next low center likely passes further away from us, reducing
forcing.

The other issue will be our temperatures. The expansive southeast
ridge will favor intense, sustained summer heat to our south, but it
is less clear cut as to how firm a grasp the warmth will have over
us. With multiple frontal passages and a frequently varying wind
direction, there are likely to be some ups and downs and some local
variations, such as on Saturday when onshore flow will likely keep
the coast cooler. Overall, however, we are likely to be above normal
for temperatures most of this period.

Dailies...

Tuesday night-Wednesday... This portion of the forecast is
straightforward, as high pressure moves across the area and ensures
dry and seasonable weather.

Wednesday night-Thursday night... A warm front should move through
Wednesday night, setting up what could be a rather active 24 hours
of weather. High uncertainty as to how it all plays out, as there
will be precipitation risks with both the Wednesday night warm front
and the cold front that will approach by Thursday night. For
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, looks like scattered showers
with possibly some elevated thunderstorms. We should dry out
Thursday afternoon, with temperatures getting into the 70s to near
80. Rain chances then go up again for the evening and overnight. Low
pressure, with a trailing cold front, will track eastward through
the great lakes then turn southeasterly as it rides along the top of
the ridge. Concern is that if enough instability is present, we
could have strong to severe storms given wind fields really
intensify as the low pressure makes its turn to southeasterly.

An evening or overnight MCS event appears possible. Given it's
still a few days away, will hold off on more detail for now.

Friday... Most indications are that this should be a dry day in
between systems as we are on the periphery of high pressure.

Temperatures near to above normal, except cooler at the coast with
an onshore component developing in the wind.

Saturday... The daytime period on Saturday looks dry, as retreating
high pressure should still lend us protection for most of the day. A
cold front will be approaching from the west by late day and evening
as another low moving out of the plains tracks up into ontario. This
may bring a shower and storm risk towards the evening, especially to
the west. Not overly concerned about strong storms here, as flow
will be onshore Saturday, keeping things stable. This will also keep
temperatures Saturday a little cooler than the upper air charts
would suggest, especially at the coast, though it should be plenty
comfortable with 70s and low 80s. The shower risk will likely
increase into the overnight.

Sunday-Monday... Saturday's "cold front" will in fact act to warm
temperatures on Sunday by kicking out the onshore flow and turning
winds westerly. This westerly wind should also keep the dew points
in check, especially if the wind ends up a little north of west.

Because of this, Sunday could be quite warm, with strong sensible
heating likely in the post-frontal air mass. Widespread 80s look
likely with 90s potentially in play as well, though did not go that
extreme yet. A caveat, however, is that if the front stalls near or
just south of us, a more humid day with afternoon showers and storms
would be possible. Went on the drier side for now. Very low
confidence by next Monday as another cold front may approach. Could
be another warm day if the front is slow enough, but just leaned
towards a consensus blend for now.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon...VFR with cloud bases around 5,000 feet.

Southwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots, becoming west-
southwest toward evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with
locally brief MVFR ifr restrictions.

Tonight...VFR. Any showers and thunderstorms ending early. West-
southwest winds 8-12 knots, becoming northwest.

Tuesday...VFR. Northwest winds 12-15 knots with gusts to 20-25
knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday night-Wednesday night... MainlyVFR. Light north to
northwest wind becoming light and variable Wednesday night. Some
showers and locally MVFR conditions possible Wednesday night.

Thursday-Thursday night... Most of the daytime Thursday should be
vfr with a light southwest wind. Showers and thunderstorms possible
Thursday evening and night with winds gradually shifting to
northwest.

Friday-Saturday... VFR expected. Northerly wind initially on Friday
will become northeasterly during the afternoon, easterly to
southeasterly Friday night, and southerly by Saturday.

Marine
South to southwest flow of very warm air over the cooler waters is
resulting in less mixing (except right along the coast). This will
continue, however a wind shift to the west and northwest occurs
tonight as a cold front moves through. Northwesterly flow continues
Tuesday with some gusts to about 20 knots and seas on the ocean will
be up to 4 feet. Therefore, the conditions are anticipated to remain
below small craft advisory criteria through Tuesday. Some showers
and thunderstorms move through early this evening, some of which
could produce locally gusty winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday night-Friday... Winds and seas are expected to remain below
sca criteria.

Rip currents...

a south to southwest flow ahead of a cold front along with waves
near 4 feet is resulting in a moderate risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents into tonight. For Tuesday, a northwest wind
with no sea breeze expected should result in a low risk.

Equipment
The kdix radar is back online. However, it will be in a test phase
through early Tuesday afternoon. Intermittent outages are
possible.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'brien
near term... Gorse
short term... Gorse
long term... O'brien
aviation... Gorse o'brien
marine... Gorse o'brien
equipment... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 14 mi61 min SSW 5.1 G 7 79°F 71°F1008.1 hPa
CPVM2 23 mi37 min 77°F 65°F
44063 - Annapolis 27 mi25 min W 9.7 G 12 83°F 70°F1007.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 28 mi37 min 88°F 1007.2 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 28 mi37 min WSW 6 G 12 86°F 71°F1007.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 28 mi37 min W 12 G 16 86°F 1007.5 hPa
FSNM2 28 mi43 min W 14 G 17 86°F 1007.6 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 29 mi31 min SSW 15 G 16 84°F 69°F1008.8 hPa (-1.9)63°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 32 mi37 min NW 6 G 9.9 88°F 72°F1007.2 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 35 mi37 min SW 16 G 21 82°F 67°F1007.5 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 36 mi37 min 1006.8 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 37 mi37 min W 8 G 16 87°F 63°F1007.3 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 40 mi37 min 87°F 71°F1008.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 47 mi49 min W 7.8 G 7.8 77°F 1009 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 48 mi43 min 1008.5 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay Bridge Field, MD21 mi51 minSW 910.00 miFair86°F64°F49%1008.1 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD24 mi41 minW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F62°F48%1007.8 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD24 mi41 minSSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F66°F49%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from W29 (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW6SW7SW5W3W3CalmW5W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5E8E6E4SE5N5N3SE5SE4S6

Tide / Current Tables for Chestertown, Maryland
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Chestertown
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:20 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:17 AM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:26 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:35 PM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.60.40.50.71.21.92.533.33.22.92.41.81.30.90.60.60.91.21.61.91.91.7

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Mon -- 12:25 AM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:04 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     1.25 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:14 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:33 PM EDT     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     0.57 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:22 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.7-0.4-00.40.91.21.21.10.70.1-0.4-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.5-0.10.30.50.60.40.1-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.