Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Olney, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:47PM Monday December 10, 2018 7:27 PM EST (00:27 UTC) Moonrise 9:55AMMoonset 7:50PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 637 Pm Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely through the day, then rain through the night.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 637 Pm Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will gradually build in from the west and linger through most of the week. Another storm system will approach Friday. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olney, MD
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location: 39.15, -77.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 101950
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
250 pm est Mon dec 10 2018

Synopsis High pressure will build over the region tonight and
hold through Thursday night. A large area of low pressure will
impact the area at the end of the week bringing widespread rain
and potential for flooding.

Near term through Wednesday
Tranquil conditions next 48 hrs under high pressure. Very cold
next two nights under clear skies and dry air mass. For tonight,
used current dewpoints as an approximation to forecast lows. A
little warmer tomorrow under abundant sunshine.

Short term Wednesday night
A weak moisture starved system will move across the great lks
late Wed night. This will bring a chance of snow primarily west
of i-81 with less than an inch of accumulation expected in the
favored upslope area of bayard wv.

Long term Thursday through Monday
A shortwave disturbance will depart off to the northeast Thursday
morning, and ridging will build in aloft. As a result, dry
conditions are expected. There could be a bit more cloud cover than
previous days as high clouds start to stream in ahead of a more
significant system located off to our southwest. High temperatures
will reach into the low-mid 40s.

Meanwhile, a high amplitude trough will eject from the four corners
region onto the southern plains during the day Thursday. This trough
will become meridionally elongated in nature Thursday night, and
eventually become cut off from the northern stream flow during the
day Friday as it tracks across the lower mississippi valley. This
trough will be highly anomalous in nature, with standardized
anomalies of 500 hpa height dipping to -5 to -6 over louisiana at
12z Friday. The highly anomalous nature, and slow forward motion of
the trough will allow it to draw moisture northward out of the
tropics. By midday Friday, a fairly expansive plume of precipitable
water values between 1.5-2 inches will be located just downstream of
the trough over the southeast us. As the system progresses further
along, this plume of moisture will reach our area, with most
model guidance indicating precipitable water values around
1.25-1.5 inches locally. Those values would be near, or
potentially above the record daily values for the iad sounding
location. Given the high moisture content and strong forcing for
ascent downstream of the potent mid-level trough, heavy
rainfall appears likely across the region Friday afternoon
through much of Friday night. Nearly all of the deterministic
guidance, as well as the ensemble means of the GEFS and eps
produce well in excess of an inch with the system. As a result,
flooding could become a concern, especially over areas that have
residual snowcover from yesterday's storm.

Moving into the weekend, model solutions begin to diverge a bit. The
gfs moves the cutoff upper trough overhead on Saturday, while the
euro progresses it along a bit slower. There's a variety of
solutions in both the GEFS and eps as well, so overall the forecast
for Saturday and Sunday are low confidence in terms of timing out
any precipitation. Generally speaking, it should be a fairly cloudy
weekend, with at least chances for showers and near to above normal
temperatures.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
Vfr conditions expected today through wed. Increasing clouds wed
night and Thu and may be a stray shsn.

Conflicting guidance solutions on Thursday lead to a lower
confidence flight restriction forecast. There is a small potential
that MVFR ifr conditions may overspread the terminals with upper
level energy. The more likely time period for flight restrictions
will come on Friday in rain.

Marine
Light winds through the end of the work week under high
pressure.

Winds will be light on Thursday with high pressure departing off the
east coast. SCA level winds appear likely on Friday as an area of
low pressure tracks to our west.

Climate
Rainfall totals continue to creep upward, with baltimore
setting the annual record already. Here are the current rankings
for wettest year on record (through december 9th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.78 inches (2018)
4. 60.09 inches (1878)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 65.67 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 61.30 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Lfr
short term... Lfr
long term... Kjp
aviation... Lfr kjp
marine... Lfr kjp
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 19 mi39 min N 5.1 G 8 37°F 40°F1022.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 27 mi45 min N 5.1 G 7 36°F 45°F1021.4 hPa
FSNM2 29 mi45 min NNW 6 G 7 35°F 1021.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 29 mi39 min NNW 6 G 7 36°F 1021.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi117 min N 1.9 35°F 1021 hPa25°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 33 mi39 min 34°F 1021.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 38 mi27 min NNW 8 G 9.9 35°F 41°F1022.5 hPa (+1.6)26°F
CPVM2 38 mi39 min 37°F 25°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 44 mi39 min N 6 G 7 36°F 40°F1021.9 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gaithersburg - Montgomery County Airport, MD5 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair29°F23°F78%1024.9 hPa
College Park Airport, MD14 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair29°F21°F76%1021.7 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD16 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair28°F23°F80%1022.7 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA20 mi35 minNNE 910.00 miA Few Clouds37°F23°F57%1022.1 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD21 mi33 minNW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy30°F21°F72%1021.7 hPa
Washington/Dulles International Airport, DC, VA24 mi35 minN 610.00 miFair34°F21°F61%1021.9 hPa

Wind History from GAI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmCalmCalm4CalmNW3CalmCalmN33Calm3333NW56N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmNE4NE3--CalmN3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW7NW10
G14
NW9NW9NW9NW4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:06 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:38 AM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:56 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:51 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:45 PM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.610.50.2-0.10.10.71.52.12.52.52.21.60.90.40.1-00.20.81.72.42.82.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:02 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:33 AM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:51 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:51 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:40 PM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.610.50.1-0.10.10.81.62.22.52.52.11.50.90.40.1-00.20.91.82.42.82.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.