Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Riviera Beach, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:52PM Friday November 16, 2018 9:06 PM EST (02:06 UTC) Moonrise 1:43PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 637 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight est tonight...
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon night..N winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of rain.
Tue..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 637 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build in from the ohio valley today through Saturday. High pressure will move offshore Sunday and a weak cold front may pass through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Riviera Beach, MD
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location: 39.16, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 161954
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
254 pm est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build in from the ohio valley over the
weekend. A cold front will approach from the great lakes early
next week.

Near term through tonight
Low pressure continues to pull away toward nova scotia this
afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west. As the
gradient weakens, winds will diminish tonight, which will allow
for temperatures to fall below freezing in most areas away from
the city centers and along the tidal waters. Therefore, any
lingering meltwater could refreeze on untreated surfaces. Some
high res guidance is trying to develop low clouds tonight, but
wonder if model snowpack is resulting in too much boundary
layer moisture. Will keep forecast partly mostly clear.

A bit of a pressure trough lingers along the spine of the
appalachians. This convergence may combine with shallow upslope
moisture to produce light precipitation along the allegheny
front tonight, though it is far from certain. Flurries or
freezing drizzle are possible, but am not confident enough to
include in the forecast.

Short term Saturday through Saturday night
The center of high pressure will move over the area on Saturday
and off to the east by Sunday morning. Weather will be dry but
clouds will begin increasing Saturday night ahead of the next
system. Temperatures will continue below normal with highs in
the 40s and low 50s and lows near or below freezing.

A weak front -- lacking forcing and moisture -- will slide into
the area Sunday and Sunday night. The daytime hours will likely
see increased clouds, with any chance of precipitation holding
off until Sunday night. The highest chance will be along the pa
border to the allegheny front. Lapse rates aren't very steep, so
most areas would be rain and only the coldest areas potentially
seeing some snowflakes. Regardless, any precipitation will be
very light. Highs will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s, with
clouds holding low temperatures above freezing in most areas.

Long term Monday through Thursday
All in all, the long term period looks fairly quiet. On Monday, a
longwave trough will be centered over hudson bay, while an upper
level ridge will reside across the western conus. A weak mid-level
disturbance displaced well to the south of the longer wave trough
will approach the area on Monday, pushing a weak surface cold front
through our area. With limited moisture ahead of the front and the
best forcing for ascent displaced well to our north, little if any
precipitation is expected. The best chance for a few showers Monday
afternoon through Monday night will be in the typically favored
upslope regions to the west of the blue ridge.

Another shortwave disturbance embedded in northwesterly flow will
approach the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Once again,
little to no precipitation is expected, with upslope areas having
the highest chance for a (snow) shower or two. Both deterministic
and ensemble guidance are in good agreement that high pressure will
build overhead for Wednesday and Thursday, leading to mostly sunny
skies.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Northwest flow stratocumulus is dissipating, soVFR conditions
are likely through this evening. Wind gusts of 20+ kt will
subside by sunset. High-resolution guidance is trying to develop
areas of low clouds tonight into Saturday, but am doubting this
solution as model soundings look too saturated (perhaps due to
modeled snowpack). Included a few sct group in the tafs to
account for the uncertainty. There may be a better chance for
lower clouds on Sunday as the next system approaches, and a few
light showers could near mrb by Sunday night.

Vfr conditions are expected through the long term period.

Marine
W NW flow is continuing to produce small craft advisory
conditions on the waters, but the winds are gradually decreasing
as low pressure pulls away and high pressure builds in from the
west. The SCA gradually tapers off by midday Saturday, although
it's quite possible some segments could be cancelled early. A
weak front approaches late in the weekend, but overall the
pressure gradient remains weak, and additional scas are not
expected this weekend.

Quiet weather conditions are expected over the waters through the
long term period, with sub-sca level winds in the forecast each
day.

Climate
Here are the current rankings for wettest year on record
(through november 15th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.09 inches (1878)
4. 58.53 inches (2018)
5. 58.17 inches (1886)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 63.01 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
3. 62.35 inches (1889)
4. 58.98 inches (1979)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 59.15 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
4. 58.09 inches (1996)
5. 55.43 inches (1979)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for anz530-531-
538-539.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz535-
536-542.

Small craft advisory until noon est Saturday for anz533-534-
541-543.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Saturday for anz532-537-
540.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Ads
short term... Ads
long term... Kjp
aviation... Ads kjp
marine... Ads kjp
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSNM2 4 mi37 min WSW 11 G 14 42°F 1016.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 4 mi37 min SW 7 G 8.9 43°F 1016.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 8 mi37 min W 4.1 G 6 42°F 52°F1016.3 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 13 mi37 min 43°F 1016.8 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 14 mi31 min WNW 9.7 G 12 45°F 1017.7 hPa
CPVM2 14 mi37 min 45°F 30°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 16 mi37 min WNW 15 G 19 44°F 48°F1016.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 19 mi67 min W 8.9 G 12 45°F 51°F1017.6 hPa (+3.0)32°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 28 mi97 min Calm 38°F 1016 hPa35°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 33 mi37 min NW 4.1 G 8.9 45°F 47°F1017.7 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 42 mi37 min 47°F 1017.5 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 46 mi37 min W 4.1 G 6 40°F 46°F1016.3 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 47 mi37 min 1017 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD8 mi73 minW 910.00 miA Few Clouds40°F30°F70%1016.2 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD13 mi73 minWNW 8 G 1610.00 miFair46°F30°F56%1016.6 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD14 mi85 minW 810.00 miFair37°F32°F81%1016.9 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD14 mi72 minW 610.00 miA Few Clouds39°F32°F75%1016.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi87 minWNW 11 G 1810.00 miFair45°F32°F61%1016.3 hPa
College Park Airport, MD24 mi85 minWNW 510.00 miFair42°F30°F62%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from BWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12NE12N4NW12W16
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NW106W6SW4W9W8
1 day agoNE10NE8NE9NE12NE11NE8NE8NE10NE9NE8NE7NE8NE9NE10NE10NE13
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2 days agoW8
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NW8W6NW9W6W10NW9W9NW8NW11NW10
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NW6NW6N7N334NE7NE8
G19

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Creek, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:12 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:42 AM EST     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:10 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:14 PM EST     0.65 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:33 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:15 PM EST     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:59 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.4-0.10.30.50.60.60.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.4-0.300.30.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.