Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Riviera Beach, MD

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7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:27PM Monday July 23, 2018 11:36 AM EDT (15:36 UTC) Moonrise 4:14PMMoonset 1:39AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 1032 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers late this morning, then occasional showers this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Occasional showers and scattered tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will approach from the west today and stall just to our west early to mid-week. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Tuesday night through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Riviera Beach, MD
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location: 39.16, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 231420
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1020 am edt Mon jul 23 2018

Synopsis
A broad and slow moving low pressure system over the southeast
will influence the mid atlantic through the middle of the week.

A pair of cold fronts will move through the area during the
second half of the week.

Near term through tonight
Digging upper low across the southeast and westward expansion of
the subtropical ridge will allow for deep moisture plume
sitting offshore to retrograde today and establish itself over
our area particularly along the i-95 corridor. Model signals
then shift the focus west into the central blue ridge as mid-
level winds intensify.

The 12z lwx RAOB is saturated (as can be expected) with precip
water greater than 2 inches. Flow unidirectional south, which
will support training storms. Expect efficient rainfall
production since warm cloud layer deep. Flash flood watches in
effect this afternoon and evening from i-81 corridor to the bay.

Regional radar indicates a lull in rainfall through the midday,
and have backed off on near term pops. However, a stream of
moisture resides from southeast virginia down the outer banks.

There is enough instability available that, if there is a break
in the activity (as is being realized), new showers and
thunderstorms may be able to generate. Specific timing placement
of these storms problematic. Forecast grids are intentionally
broad. However, a wet microburst could be realized.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
Things get worse on Tue as moisture plume moves a bit more
inland and aims at washington dc. Model signal is stronger for
heavy rainfall with showers t-storms falling over saturated
soils. Coordination with neighboring wfos was not to issue the
flood watch for multiple days, but obviously the riks of flash
flooding will be extremely high. Wpc day ero has moderate risk
for almost the entire area.

Deep moisture plume will start shifting a bit more east on wed
with flooding threat diminishing somewhat for western areas but
remaining very high for eastern areas wed. Mid-level drying will
start taking place late Wed night with convection and risk of
flooding likely decreasing substantially after midnight wed
night.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
By Thursday, the stubborn upper level trough that will influence our
weather much of this week should finally shear out and lift
northeastward. That will leave our area in the wake of the
weakening upper trough and ahead of a potent upper level low
centered just to the north of lake superior. Weak subsidence in the
wake of the departing upper trough could keep us dry for a change on
Thursday. The 00z deterministic GFS and euro both keep us dry
on Thursday. However, a few members of each respective ensemble
produce some precipitation. With a warm airmass in place and
dewpoints in the 60s, an afternoon shower or storm can't be entirely
ruled out. However, the trend on Thursday seems to be in favor of
drier weather.

On Friday, the aforementioned upper low will continue to progress to
the east across southern canada. This trough will drive a weak
surface cold front toward our area from the north. The best forcing
for ascent associated with the upper low looks to stay north of our
area. However, both the GFS and euro hint that a few storms may be
possible along and just ahead of the front. The trough has an
extensive wind field associated with it, with decent mid-upper level
flow extending down to our latitude. Currently models show around
1000 j kg of MLCAPE with 35-40 kt of 0-6 km shear Friday afternoon.

Although coverage of storms looks to be low, those parameters
suggest that if storms were to form, they could show some
organization.

Beyond Friday, model guidance begins to diverge. Temperatures should
be a few degrees cooler for the weekend in the wake of the front.

However, the front won't entirely clear low level moisture (and it's
associated convective potential) out of the area. Both the eps and
gefs have precipitation producing members Saturday and Sunday, but
there doesn't to be a clear solution in either the deterministic or
ensemble guidance.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Widespread showers t-storms expected today into Wed with
training convection likely. That said, it won't be raining the
whole time. A bit of a lull ongoing this midday. New showers and
thunderstorms anticipated to develop this afternoon evening.

Specific timing placement problematic, so tafs do not contain
details. However, several round of brief local AOB ifr
anticipated.

Same pattern continue through wed, with the same end result:
plan for periods of AOB ifr, but no the whole time. Do not can
confidence in specifically which hours will won't have flight
restrictions. Conditions begin to improve late Wed night.

Marine
Sca conditions likely through Wed night. Mariners can expect
higher winds and waves near thunderstorms.

Hydrology
Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the first
half of the week will lead to increasingly susceptible
conditions for not only flash flooding but eventually some river
flooding. Solis already saturated, so it won't take much to
realize flood concerns. Flash flood watches and river related
products will likely be extended through wed, and those with
sensitive interests will want to start making plans.

Tides coastal flooding
Gusty southerly flow will continue to lead to elevated water
levels for the next several days. Multiple coastal flood
advisories are in effect through Tue morning. Coastal flood
watch issued for annapolis for the Tue morning high tide. The
overnight high tides will be favored. Daily fluctuations are
proving difficult to pinpoint though, so adjustments to the
forecast are likely.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Flash flood watch through late tonight for dcz001.

Coastal flood advisory until 9 am edt Tuesday for dcz001.

Md... Flash flood watch through late tonight for mdz003>006-011-013-
014-016>018-503>508.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 am edt Tuesday for mdz017.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 am edt this morning for mdz508.

Coastal flood watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning
for mdz014.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt Tuesday for mdz014.

Coastal flood advisory until 10 am edt Tuesday for mdz011.

Va... Flash flood watch through late tonight for vaz025>031-036>040-
050>057-501-502-505>508.

Wv... Flash flood watch through late tonight for wvz051>053.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for anz531>534-537-
539>543.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for anz530-
535-536-538.

Small craft advisory from noon to 6 pm edt Tuesday for anz530-
535-536-538.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Hts lfr
short term... Lfr
long term... Kjp
aviation... Hts lfr kjp
marine... Lfr kjp
hydrology... Hts lfr
tides coastal flooding... Lfr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSNM2 4 mi36 min SE 12 G 15 78°F 1015.6 hPa (+1.2)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 4 mi36 min SE 12 G 14 78°F 1015.4 hPa (+1.2)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 8 mi42 min S 6 G 9.9 79°F 78°F1015.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 13 mi42 min 80°F 1014.9 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 14 mi36 min S 9.7 G 12 79°F 78°F1 ft1015.9 hPa (+1.6)
CPVM2 14 mi36 min 79°F 76°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 16 mi36 min SSE 5.1 G 8.9 81°F 78°F1016 hPa (+0.9)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 19 mi36 min SSE 11 G 13 78°F 78°F1016.4 hPa (+1.2)75°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 28 mi126 min SE 5.1 70°F 1014 hPa67°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 33 mi36 min SE 4.1 G 11 79°F 74°F1015 hPa (+1.7)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 42 mi36 min SSE 19 G 25 79°F 1 ft1015.2 hPa (+0.3)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 46 mi36 min SE 6 G 16 82°F 79°F1016.3 hPa (+0.7)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 47 mi36 min 80°F 80°F1016.8 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD8 mi42 minESE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F73°F82%1015.2 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD9 mi42 minno data mi81°F73°F77%1015.9 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD13 mi42 minSE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F73°F79%1015.4 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD14 mi60 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F71°F83%1016.3 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD14 mi51 minESE 610.00 miOvercast81°F78°F94%1015.9 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi81 minSE 10 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F73°F79%1015.2 hPa
College Park Airport, MD24 mi59 minSSE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F72°F82%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from BWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E10E9S10
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1 day agoNE9NE12NE14
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NE13N74NW12W7SW8SW10SW6S4CalmS3S4SE5SE6
2 days agoSE6SE94SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Stony Creek, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Stony Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:35 AM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:40 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:16 PM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:10 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.11.41.61.81.81.71.51.310.80.60.60.70.911.11.10.90.80.60.40.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:34 AM EDT     1.09 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:22 AM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:21 PM EDT     0.40 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:52 PM EDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:38 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.81.11.10.90.50.1-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.3-00.30.40.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.