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FXUS65 KREV 201924 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1224 PM PDT Mon May 20 2024


SYNOPSIS

Several upper level waves push through the Sierra and western Nevada this week with intermittent afternoon breezes, cooler temperatures, and some late day showers and storms across the Sierra. A warming trend will settle in for late this week and over the Memorial Day weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

* Today will be the coolest of the week with near freezing temperatures possible tonight into early Tuesday. Keep an eye on those sensitive plants tonight! Warming trend will kick off this weekend following a couple of cool bumps this week.

* Plan on typical afternoon breezes (gusts 20-30 mph) through the week. Wednesday and Saturday are projected to be a bit more windy (localized gusts 40-50 mph).

* There is 10-15% chance for some Sierra showers and thunder this afternoon. Another round will be possible Thursday into the holiday weekend (10-15% chances).

Details:

Freezes: Clear skies, dry conditions, and a colder air mass left in the wake of the frontal passage yesterday will provide efficient radiational cooling significantly lower overnight temperatures tonight into early Tuesday morning. While the chances for freezing temperatures are relatively low for the Reno/Carson urban areas (up to 5%), we can't rule out freezes for some of the colder valleys. Highest chances (70-100%) for freezes will be in the Sierra areas and northern Lassen and Washoe counties, but in the Basin and Range there is a 10-20% chance as well. Once we get past early Tuesday morning the risk of freezes tapers off, but until then maybe consider protecting some of the more sensitive foliage.

Happy Little Troughs: We're going to see several troughs either brush- by our pass through the region this week. The first on Wednesday will result in an uptick in the winds where we could have the strongest wind gusts this week (~35-50 mph). The standard concerns are at play with wind gusts of this nature: bumpy aviation conditions and choppy lakes. As we head into late spring/early summer, we want to keep fire concerns in mind too. Fuels and vegetation aren't quite ready for significant fire spread, but we want to avoid any activities that could start an early season fire.
The trough will also slow our warming trend this week. This trough appears to be dry with the best potential for showers across southeast OR and northeast NV for now. A secondary trough passes through on Thursday, which may bring enough instability to pop few thunderstorms and showers along the Sierra crest.

Memorial Day Weekend: Looking at a general warming trend over the weekend, but there will be lingering shower and thunderstorm potential. We all know how Memorial Day weekend can be, so have a plan to escape a lightning threat if you plan on being in the great outdoors. Blended model guidance holds onto at least a 10-15% chance for a shower or storm through Memorial Day.

AVIATION

* VFR conditions will persist outside of a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra this afternoon. A typical afternoon breeze of 20-25 kts and light turbulence are expected this afternoon and evening, with light and variable winds surface winds Tuesday morning. Increased northeasterly flow above FL100 may produce periods of light to moderate turbulence over and west of the Sierra crest tonight into Tuesday morning.

* Several upper-level troughs will migrate over the region this week, bringing increased afternoon breezes, especially Wednesday, cooler temperatures, and some late-day showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Sierra. VFR conditions will prevail during this period outside of any showers/thunderstorms. A warming trend will take place Memorial Day weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms lingering.

-Johnston

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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