Sunday, March24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lucerne, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:27PM Sunday March 24, 2019 2:30 AM PDT (09:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:53PMMoonset 8:40AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 228 Am Pdt Sun Mar 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am pdt this morning...
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Monday morning...
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 8 to 10 ft at 15 seconds.
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 6 to 9 ft at 14 seconds. Rain.
Mon..SE winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. W swell 8 to 10 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 7 to 9 ft at 13 seconds. A slight chance of rain.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 13 seconds. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft. W swell 5 to 6 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 6 to 9 ft. Rain.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 7 to 9 ft. A chance of rain.
PZZ500 228 Am Pdt Sun Mar 24 2019
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Northerly winds over the waters this morning will become southerly through the day ahead of the next approaching storm system, bringing with it a chance of rain after Sunset. The northwest swell will continue to subside during the day before briefly increasing again overnight and into Monday. The unsettled weather is the forecast continue into the middle of the week


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lucerne, CA
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location: 39.18, -122.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Sacramento, CA
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Fxus66 ksto 240550
afdsto
area forecast discussion
national weather service sacramento ca
1045 pm pdt Sat mar 23 2019

Synopsis
Dry Sunday, followed by more rain and mountain snow Monday into
early Tuesday. A stronger storm is possible Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible with each of the storms
Tuesday and Wednesday. Unsettled weather will continue Thursday and
Friday with possible showers and thunderstorms each day.

Discussion
Evening update: storm near the colusa wildlife refuge at 4 pm
exhibited a vr (rotational shear) value of 25 kts at 0.9 deg
elevation angle (highest value) at about 40 nm from kdax. This put
the value in the minimal mesocyclone range. Nice photo and video
clip of the rain-free base but could not tell from the photo if
there was indeed a funnel cloud (as reported by the public) or if it
was rotating after looking at the video. In any event, at 0.9
elevation, the beam was about 5000 ft agl, and given the forecast of
very low 0-1 km shear values today, we did not expect a touchdown,
using a probability threshold of less than 50 50 chance of a
touchdown today.

Now the precip is winding down as the upper trof axis shifts E of
the cwa. Clouds over most of the CWA are eroding as subsidence
sinking occurs behind the trof axis. Cloud cover should increase
over the CWA early tomorrow ahead of the trof nearing 135w. Could be
some patchy ground fog developing along the sac river vly TAF sites
around sunrise. Jhm

Previous discussion
Short term will be monitoring for thunderstorm development mainly
over the valley but some might be able to make it into the foothills
this afternoon into the early evening hours when the activity is
expected to die down. Thunderstorms will likely contain very heavy
rainfall and small hail.

The current system will continue to spread east tonight leading
to dry conditions for Sunday. The next systems timing is in
question at this time. The GFS is faster in spreading the rain
over the interior and to the southern areas than the slower nam
model. The winter storm watch is based on the faster timing so
adjustments may end up happening if the NAM wins out. The storm
will be cold enough to bring more snow to the western slopes with
possible travel problems. Unstable air over the valley may lead to
thunderstorms on Tuesday. The second system will be moving into
the region Tuesday night but there may be some enhancement ahead
of the main part of the storm as it begins to interact with left
over moisture from the first storm. This second storm will be the
bigger of the two storms.

Extended discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)
Little change to the forecast this afternoon. A pacific storm will
begin to spread widespread rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds over
the CWA Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As the front moves
through on Wednesday, there will be chances for post- frontal
convection as shear, cape, total-totals, and lis look favorable.

This set up could be conducive for strong thunderstorms during this
time frame, thus we'll have to keep an eye on the forecast in the
coming days. As we head into Wednesday night and Thursday,
additional vort maxes and cyclonic flow will keep showers in the
forecast.

Beyond Thursday, chances for precipitation will be diminishing
as ridging builds over the eastern pacific extends into northern
california.

Aviation
Precip coming to an end as the upper trof axis shifts east of the
area. Skies will continue to clear as a weak area of high pressure
builds over the region. Light winds, lingering moisture, and clear
skies could promote fog development tonight. As a result, I have
opted to put some MVFR visibilities in for TAF sites at ksmf and
southwards. If fog doesn't develop, expectVFR conditions tonight
and tomorrow.

Sto watches warnings advisories
Winter storm watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
for western plumas county lassen park.

Winter storm watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
for west slope northern sierra nevada.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANVC1 - 9416841 - Arena Cove, CA 60 mi43 min 42°F 54°F1022.6 hPa
46014 - PT ARENA - 19NM North of Point Arena, CA 71 mi31 min E 7.8 G 12 50°F 53°F1022.2 hPa (-1.5)49°F

Wind History for Arena Cove, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ukiah Municipal Airport, CA30 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair40°F37°F89%1023.1 hPa

Wind History from UKI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6NW10NW7W8
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1 day agoE3CalmN3NW3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmS4SE8SE7SE6S5SE6SE4SE5S4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4
2 days agoCalmCalmN3W3CalmCalmCalmN3Calm3CalmCalm3NW6NW9--NW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Ross, California
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Fort Ross
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Sun -- 01:42 AM PDT     5.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:19 AM PDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:43 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:40 PM PDT     4.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:28 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:19 PM PDT     1.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:54 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.95.65.85.34.22.91.50.500.10.81.82.93.94.54.64.23.52.721.71.82.33.2

Tide / Current Tables for Salt Point, California Current
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Salt Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:54 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:56 AM PDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:43 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:45 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:41 PM PDT     1.05 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:00 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:25 PM PDT     -0.86 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:53 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:54 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.5-0.1-0.7-1.2-1.3-1.2-0.8-0.40.10.7110.90.50-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.300.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Sacramento, CA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Beal AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.