Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Milford, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:36PM Thursday May 23, 2019 2:40 AM EDT (06:40 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:05AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Milford, WV
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location: 39.18, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 230615
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
215 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
Mid level disturbance brings showers and potentially strong to
severe thunderstorms Thursday. Very warm and humid with storm
chances through the weekend.

Near term through today
As of 215 am Thursday...

allowed morning showers and thunderstorms earlier across the
middle ohio valley in positive theta E advection ahead of
approaching mid and upper level short wave trough. Also
included severe wording in thunderstorms Thursday.

As of 1045 pm Wednesday...

previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary at
this time.

As of 715 pm Wednesday...

removed pops and wx from grids per satellite, radar and high
resolution models latest trends. Surface analysis show little of
pbl moist convergence despite of a weak warm front- like
boundary overhead. However, sfc-based CAPE indicate near 2000
j kg over south central wv. Similar CAPE values are noted over
portions of southeast oh and northern WV late this afternoon
although convective inhibition up to minus 100 j kg will prevent
initiation.

The local atmosphere is struggling to initiate convection. Only
few convective clouds are noted on satellite imagery, but are
expected to decay shortly before sunset. Also, lowered winds
tonight as they should be rather near calm lowlands, to around 5
knots higher elevations.

Thursday's forecast is rather tricky as convective timing and
coverage is dependent upon how morning convection across oh
plays out. Most guidance indicates convection should move into
sw oh overnight and weaken around sunrise. However, should the
convection take longer to weaken, then some mesoscale boundaries
may push farther SE into our area. Should this occur, then
convection may develop by late morning and early afternoon
across the area. However, if the remnant boundaries remain out
of the cwa, then most convection should hold off until later in
the afternoon. Chances of severe weather are expected to be
greater tomorrow as shear values, instability, moisture
availability, and a stronger mid level disturbance are prog to
be in place. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary
strong severe storm threat.

Aside from convective chances tomorrow, Thursday will be very
warm to hot with noticeably more humid conditions.

Short term tonight through Saturday night
As of 315 pm Wednesday...

pattern over the middle ohio valley and central appalachians
will be dominated by the stout closed upper level ridge over the
far southeastern conus. While the main low pressure track will
be pushed well north of the cwa, the region will be subject to
weak frontal boundaries, both warm and cold, and ultimately
focusing areas for convection. The chances for this convection
apart from the forcing mechanisms will be largely dependent on
the available layer moisture, which will be tough to come by
Friday, but increasing through the weekend. Will also have to
overcome low level inhibition early in the period as well.

Temperatures and dewpoints will be at summer type levels.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 315 pm Wednesday...

highest pops of the short and long term will be Sunday with the
frontal boundary dropping in from the north, and should pass
through giving a slight break in the temperatures into early
next week. Somewhat of a questionable confidence with the
slightly cooler airmass actually making it through but going
with more low to mid 80s on Monday in the lowlands as opposed to
the 90ish temperatures earlier in the weekend. The upper ridge
will drift to the southeast a bit from its positioning in the
short term, opening up the region to southwest flow aloft, and
thus a more progressive pattern and consistent chances for
convection.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 215 am Thursday...

vfr overnight.

A mid and upper level short wave trough crosses Thursday amid a
humid and very warm air mass. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will form in response, with the potential for
thunderstorms to become strong to severe, especially across
southeast ohio and northern and central wv.

Uncertainty on timing of showers and thunderstorms limits
inclusion in tafs at this time, but it appears there may be an
early round morning to midday, and then a late afternoon and
evening round. Thunderstorms should weaken to just showers
overnight. MVFR ceilings may develop overnight, especially
across northeast wv.

Any thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday evening could bring ifr
conditions, along with very strong wind gusts, and perhaps
hail.

Light southerly surface flow will increase and become gusty from
the west to southwest on Thursday, and then diminish Thursday
night. Moderate west to southwest flow aloft through Thursday
will become moderate west to northwest Thursday night.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Friday...

forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: gusty winds may vary Thursday. Strong
thunderstorms may directly impact TAF sites Thursday into
Thursday evening. Development of MVFR ceilings Thursday night
may vary.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Thu 05 23 19
utc 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
edt 1hrly 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
after 06z Friday...

widespread ifr conditions are not expected at this time.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... 26 rh trm
near term... Rh trm arj
short term... 26 rg
long term... 26 rg
aviation... Trm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Clarksburg, Clarksburg Benedum Airport, WV15 mi48 minN 010.00 miOvercast71°F60°F68%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from CKB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE4CalmCalmCalmE4E4E7E4E4SW55SW8SW12
G16
SW9SW7SW8S4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm
1 day agoNE3NE5N10N5N5N7N7N84NE9NE7NW546NE3--N8NE5NE6NE5NE3NE3NE6NE3
2 days agoS5S7S4SW4W7W6SW10W8SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pittsburgh, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.