Saturday, June23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Edgemere, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:37PM Saturday June 23, 2018 2:08 PM EDT (18:08 UTC) Moonrise 3:25PMMoonset 1:54AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 132 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day, then showers and tstms likely through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 132 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will slowly move northward across the waters today. Meanwhile, low pressure over the ohio valley will move into the eastern great lakes. This low will continue moving eastward across new england Sunday bringing a cold front across the waters. High pressure will return Monday and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Edgemere, MD
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location: 39.19, -76.47     debug

Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 231446
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1046 am edt Sat jun 23 2018

A warm front over southern and virginia will track slowly
northward across the region today. Meanwhile, low pressure will
move from the midwest into the eastern great lakes. A cold front
associated with the low will drop south Sunday before passing
through Sunday night. High pressure will return for Monday and
Tuesday before moving offshore during the middle portion of next

Near term through tonight
Ample cloud cover over the CWA this morning as a surface
boundary remains along southern virginia, kinked northeastward
over the virginia tidewater region and the lower chesapeake bay.

As a result, we reside on the cool and a bit more stable side
of the boundary, with temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70
degrees along southern maryland and near the bay, with dew
points at or a few degrees south of there. There is some light
to moderate shower activity quickly moving to the northeast at
around 35 mph over north central maryland. This activity will exit
our area over the next hour. This mornings sounding from iad
exhibited a couple stable layers based off the surface to just
below 900mb and another at around 600mb. An above normal
precipitable water value of 1.62" was also measured throughout
the column, supporting a potential heavy rain threat with any
storms that form later this afternoon.

The surface boundary is expected to advance northward this
morning and afternoon, as low pressure over the lower great
lakes tracks eastward. This will aid in bringing the warm sector
over portions of our region, promoting a more unstable and
favorable environment for the development of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. As this warm
front lifts through the area, ingredients will be there to
support strong to severe storms, mainly along and east of the
blue ridge, encompassing the metro areas, where a slight risk
for severe storms is highlighted by the storm prediction center.

Sufficient instability of up to 2000 j kg SBCAPE and 30-40 knot
effective bulk shear values, as well as supportive stronger
west southwesterly winds aloft in the 700-500 mb layer
supporting a primarily damaging wind threat. There is the
possibility for hail with any organized storms and a brief
tornado threat as well as that boundary lifts through our area
and interacts with any ongoing convection. The i-95 corridor and
eastward will serve as the area of focus for any brief tornado

The trough will exit stage right later this evening, bringing a
downward trend in activity overnight with lows ranging in the
middle 60s to near 70 degrees.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
A cold front will be dropping south on Sunday, but it appears as
though actual frontal passage will be Sunday night. There won't
be as much instability present (less than 1000 j), and with flow
aloft westerly and the frontal orientation east-west lift won't
be as focused either. Anticipate scattered showers thunderstorms
in diurnal heating, with a decreasing trend toward evening.

Humidity will still be present (dewpoints upper 60s around 70),
and with a greater amount of insolation compared to Sat prior to
frontal passage... Sunday will be the warmer weekend day.

A cooler drier air mass will filter south on Monday as canadian
high pressure builds. Highs will be in the lower mid 80s with
dewpoints slowly dropping through the 60s.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Canadian high pressure will continue to build overhead Tuesday,
bringing dry conditions along with sunshine and low humidity.

This likely will be the coolest day of the forecast period.

The high will move offshore Wednesday through Friday and a west
to southwest flow will cause a warming trend in temperatures
along with a return of more humid conditions. As low pressure
passes east along the united states canadian border indications
suggest that a trough axis will be crossing eh mid atlantic
either Wednesday or Thursday. That would lead to a more
organized period of showers and thunderstorms. Outside of that,
scattered diurnal thunderstorms activity could be anticipated
due to expected heat and humidity.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
Persistent ifr lifr conditions this morning, but vis has
improved a bit with areas of fog dissipating. A warm front is
expected to lift through the terminals today, helping bring some
improving conditions, but likely remaining MVFR. Showers and
thunderstorms will also be triggered this afternoon and early
evening thanks to an approaching trough and the northward
progress of the aforementioned warm front. This will promote
episodes of ifr restrictions with vcts forecast at all terminals
this afternoon and early evening.

Any storms should exit to the eastern shore before midnight.

However, humidity will remain and the ground should be
saturated, so suspect that scattered fog will return. Uncertain
of the areal coverage impact at this time.

Scattered diurnal showers thunderstorms possible once again Sunday,
but coverage intensity should be less than Saturday. Flight
restrictions possible, but should be limited brief. FROPA will
turn winds north Sunday night, permitting drier air to return.

Vfr should prevail though at least Tuesday.

No marine headlines in place at this time as winds remain at
less than 10 knots. Do expect strong to severe storms to develop
and move eastward across the waters later this afternoon and
into this evening. This will bring a likelihood for special
marine warnings with gusty winds in thunderstorm activity.

Flow will become west prior to a cold front on Sunday. The best
mixing will come behind the cold front on Monday. Advisory may
be needed for portions of the waters Monday and Monday
night... And again from the return southwest flow Wednesday.

Numerous reports of flooding have been received, which have
been covered by flood warnings. This excess water currently
draining into the mainstem rivers, with four forecast points
already in flood and additional four forecast to reach flood
later today. Please monitor these warnings for particular

Precipitable water will remain high today (1.75-2.00 inches),
with additional scattered-numerous showers and thunderstorms. If
any of these track across previous flooded locations, then
renewed flooding will be likely. However, it would appear as
though today's activity will be to the north of where flooding
has been observed. These storms should be fairly progressive,
which will keep totals down. Although have no plans to issue
any new flood watches, that certainly will be a possibility
based on convective evolution.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal anomalies remain around 1 to 2 feet above normal. This
afternoons high tide cycle is astronomically lower than this
morning's, and anomalies should begin to decrease a bit as winds
become southwesterly. Therefore, flooding is not anticipated
during this afternoon's high tide cycle. However, flooding is
possible again overnight, particularly at dc SW waterfront,
annapolis and straits point.

Anomalies should decrease further through Sunday behind a cold
front, but may tick up again by midweek as onshore flow returns.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bkf hts
near term... Bkf
short term... Hts
long term... Hts
aviation... Bkf hts
marine... Bkf hts
hydrology... Hts
tides coastal flooding... Hts

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44063 - Annapolis 15 mi38 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 72°F 1010.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 20 mi68 min N 1.9 G 2.9 72°F 74°F1011 hPa (+0.0)71°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 31 mi158 min Calm 68°F 1010 hPa66°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 44 mi38 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 76°F 1010.6 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD10 mi74 minno data mi73°F69°F87%1010.2 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD11 mi2.4 hrsNE 56.00 miFog/Mist70°F69°F100%1010.8 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD11 mi74 minE 46.00 miFog/Mist71°F69°F94%1009.9 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD15 mi74 minN 06.00 miOvercast with Haze76°F71°F85%1010.2 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi73 minWNW 37.00 miFog/Mist73°F69°F89%1010.2 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD17 mi71 minE 310.00 miOvercast70°F68°F94%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from DMH (wind in knots)
Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for North Point, Maryland
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North Point
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Sat -- 02:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:02 AM EDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:59 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:53 PM EDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:10 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Sat -- 02:10 AM EDT     1.08 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:43 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:49 AM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:43 PM EDT     0.47 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:12 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.