Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 2:14 AM   Moonset 12:48 PM

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FXUS66 KSTO 020929 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 229 AM PDT Thu May 2 2024

Synopsis
Dry and warm weather through Friday with breezy northerly winds.
Active weather returns this weekend as a weather system drops down bringing showers, mountain snow, isolated thunderstorms, gusty winds and much cooler temperatures.

Current GOES-West infrared satellite imagery shows a few mid to high levels clouds passing over interior northern California this morning. Temperatures are currently in the mid 50s to low 60s in the Valley, mid 40s to mid 50s in the foothills, and 30s to 40s in the mountains, valid at 215 AM PDT. Breezy northerly winds will linger across the area today and into Friday, with wind gusts of 15 to 30 mph. Dry and warm weather continues through Friday. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s to low 80s in the Valley and foothills, with 50s to 70s in the mountains.

Confidence is increasing for a weather system to drop down from the Gulf of Alaska, bringing active weather over the weekend.
Widespread precipitation is in the forecast, in the form of Valley/foothill showers and mountain snow. QPF has trended higher, and the current guidance from WPC shows amounts of 0.50" to 1.50" in the Valley, 1" to 2" in the foothills, and 1.50" to 3" in the mountains from Friday night into Sunday morning. For snow, the National Blend of Models (NBM) shows a 40 to 80 percent probability of 6 inches of snow above 6000 feet, with a 45 to 75 percent probability of 8 inches of snow above 6500 feet from Saturday into early Sunday. Snow levels will initially be high, around 6000 to 8000 feet late Friday night or early Saturday morning. As cold air moves in, snow levels will lower through the day Saturday and then drop to around 3500 to 4000 feet Saturday night into early Sunday morning. A few lingering showers will be possible on Sunday, however the majority of precipitation is expected to fall on Saturday.

Isolated thunderstorms can also be anticipated for Saturday, with a 15 to 25 percent probability of thunderstorm development. Best chances would be in the afternoon and evening hours. Expect small hail, gusty winds, lightning and brief heavy rain with any thunderstorms that develop. Gusty southwest winds will also develop across the area on Saturday. Strongest winds will be in the northern/central Sacramento Valley, northeast foothills, and in the mountains. The NBM shows a 35 to 75 percent probability of wind gusts greater than 40 mph in the Valley/foothills, and a 65 to 95 percent probability in the mountains. Much cooler temperatures return to the area this weekend as the system moves through, with highs dropping to the 50s and 60s in the Valley and foothills.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)...
Series of weak embedded vorticity maxima within NWly flow aloft progged through interior NorCal Monday into Thursday. This will result in a chance of light showers at times in the northern and eastern foothills and mountains. NBM showing gradual warming trend through the extended period with high temperatures near to slightly above normal Wednesday into Thursday. Areas of gusty north to east wind will be possible at times next week.

AVIATION
VFR conditions over interior NorCal thru 00z Sat. In Central Vly, areas Nly sfc wind up to 17 kts with lcl gusts to 25 kts possible til 02z Fri. In foothills/mtns areas N-E sfc wind gusts 20-30 kts possible next 24 hrs.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Sacramento #4
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Thu -- 03:14 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:42 AM PDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:21 AM PDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:50 PM PDT     Moonset
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Thu -- 07:59 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:10 PM PDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
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Clarksburg #4
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Thu -- 02:33 AM PDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:14 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:51 AM PDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM PDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:51 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:59 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:40 PM PDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
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Clarksburg #4, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

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