Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belleplain, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:18PM Friday March 24, 2017 3:56 AM EDT (07:56 UTC) Moonrise 4:54AMMoonset 3:41PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ431 Delaware Bay Waters South Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 329 Am Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SE winds around 5 kt...increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 329 Am Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A warm front will lift to our northwest today...and then a backdoor cold front pushes through the area Saturday. This front is forecast to stall near the southern portions of the area through Sunday...then return northward as a warm front Sunday night into Monday as low pressure moves through the great lakes. Another low pressure if forecast to move out of the midwest and offshore of the northeast Tuesday into Tuesday night...pulling a cold front across the east coast. High pressure will try to build down from the north Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belleplain, NJ
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location: 39.21, -74.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240201
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1001 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure across the middle atlantic will move offshore by
Friday, while a warm front moves through the ohio valley. This
frontal boundary will become nearly stationary near our region
through Tuesday, as several waves of low pressure move along it. A
cold frontal passage is expected Wednesday, followed by canadian
high pressure building into our area on Thursday.

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/
High pressure was centered near the southern mid-atlantic coast
this evening. Nearly ideal radiational cooling under light
winds, clear skies and a very dry nocturnal boundary layer are
allowing temperatures to drop fairly quickly this evening. At 9
pm, temperatures were highly variable ranging from the mid 20s
in the southern poconos, nj pine barrens and rural valleys to 40
degrees in the city of philadelphia. Forecast temperatures were
updating mainly using a blend of lav/lamp since this guidance
were verifying better so far this evening. However, none of the
available guidance were able to capture the large variations in
temperatures (sub- mesoscale) very well.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday/
The forecast was updated with a focus on hourly temperatures,
dewpoints, winds and pops since these grids will help
determine ptype and ice accrection. Differences from the
previous forecast were overall minor, negating the need to make
changes to the winter weather advisory headline. Compared to the
forecast from the day shift, the onset of precip in the morning
has trended slightly slower (8-10 am in the southern poconos).

Any extra time will provide extra time for temperatures to
rebound after daybreak. Wet-bulb cooling look to allow a brief
period of sleet at the onset along and north of i-80. Sleet
accumulations will be minimal. Ice accretion of up to a few
hundredths are expected for carbon and monroe counties during
the morning where the advisory is in effect. Light freezing rain
may extend beyond the county borders but should mainly be
confined to the highest ridges in the lehigh valley counties in
pa and sussex county, nj. At this point, cannot rule the need to
expand the advisory into berks co, lehigh valley and
northwestern nj if precipitation arrives earlier than forecast.

This will be a short duration event as precipitation will last
for 3-5 hours and temperatures rise steadily to above freezing
through midday. See wsw for more information on impacts.

By early afternoon, expect all locations to be above freezing and
all precipitation to be rain.

Long term /Friday night through Thursday/
An unsettled period of weather is in store this weekend thru the
middle of next week. At the mid-levels across the conus, a generally
zonal northern stream flow will be in place, while several shortwave
disturbances traverse the southern stream. Meanwhile at the surface,
canadian and sub-tropical high pressure systems will maintain a
frontal boundary in the vicinity of our region until a more
substantial frontal passage on Wednesday.

The primary uncertainty will be the location of the aforementioned
boundary, along with the timing of several areas of low pressure
that ride along it, and accompanying areas of precipitation. Of most
concern is the potential of mixed precipitation Sunday night.

On Saturday, the NAM and ec are most extensive with the overrunning
precipitation associated with the stationary boundary to our north.

The GFS looks more reasonable with the placement of the precip in
relation to the frontal boundary, confining pops to the northern
half of our cwa, and our forecast reflects this.

As the frontal boundary moves southward in response to canadian high
pressure building to the north, scattered showers are possible
across our entire area Saturday night into Sunday. As low pressure
moves through the ohio valley into the great lakes from Sunday night
into Monday, more substantial overrunning precip is likely during
this time frame.

As mentioned previously, there is some potential for mixed
precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning. A review of plan
view 2-meter and 850 hpa temperatures, 1000 to 500 hpa and 1000 to
850 hpa thicknesses, model p-type, ens plume diagrams, model
soundings, and cips analogs points to freezing rain as the primary
concern. There is a high amount of uncertainty, especially at this
range in the forecast, which translates into low confidence. The
probability for freezing rain is low at this time, therefore it was
not mentioned in the hwo (per our directives), but this will need to
reassessed with future forecast packages. Also, please note that ice
map on our website is for Friday, march 23.

Expect showers to continue Monday night into Wednesday, and another
round of more substantial precip likely centered on Tuesday night
into Wednesday, associated with a cold frontal passage. There is
uncertainty with the timing of this front, particularly given the
time range, but a gradual return to fair weather should occur on
Wednesday and continue into Thursday.

Temperature-wise, at or above normal through the period.

Aviation /02z Friday through Tuesday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr conditions will continue through at least 12z. After 12z, there
is an increasing risk for precipitation (expected to be all rain at
the TAF sites, but freezing precipitation will be possible N and w
of kabe and krdg). With any rain, brief MVFR conditions will be
possible. The rain should move out by mid afternoon bringing a
return toVFR conditions.

Light and variable winds may continue through much of the overnight
hours before settling in out of the south by 12z Friday.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday... A period of MVFR is possible in low
clouds, especially northwest of an acy-miv line. Otherwise,VFR.

Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots on Saturday will shift to the
east Saturday night into Sunday, increasing to 10-20 knots.

Sunday night thru Tuesday... Periods of MVFR possible in low clouds
and fog. South-southwest winds Sunday night into Monday may shift to
the east-southeast Monday night and Tuesday, generally at or below
20 knots.

Marine
Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria tonight into tomorrow
morning. By midday tomorrow, winds will increase. Gusts above
25 kt will be possible especially for the new jersey coastal
waters through the afternoon hours.

Outlook...

if confidence increases for elevated winds and seas to linger
into Saturday night, the small craft advisory (sca) may need to
be extended further into this time frame.

As a front moves south across the waters on Sunday, winds and seas
may increase to SCA levels during the day, mainly across the
northern nj waters.

Looking ahead to Monday and Tuesday, wave heights may build in
excess of five feet during this period. Therefore, a SCA may be
needed.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory from 8 am to 1 pm edt Friday for
paz054-055.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Friday for
anz450>453.

Synopsis... Franck
near term... Klein
short term... Johnson/klein
long term... Franck
aviation... Franck/johnson/klein
marine... Franck/johnson/klein


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 17 mi39 min S 4.1 G 5.1 37°F 41°F1034 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 26 mi39 min S 19 G 19 36°F 42°F1032.9 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 27 mi39 min 38°F 42°F1033.9 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 30 mi102 min SSE 1 28°F 1035 hPa22°F
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 32 mi87 min SSW 2.9 28°F 1035 hPa23°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 32 mi39 min S 4.1 G 6 34°F 42°F1034.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi39 min 30°F 42°F1032.8 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 45 mi39 min S 2.9 G 4.1 32°F 43°F1033.1 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N8
G16
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NW1
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W1
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G6
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NW14
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G27
NW24
G31
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G28
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G30
NW7
G17
NW22
G30
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G30
NW21
G28
NE2
G11
NW20
G29
N12
G19
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G24
N7
G15
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W4
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G7
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G10
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G11
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G9
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NW3
G7

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wildwood, Cape May County Airport, NJ14 mi61 minS 510.00 miFair35°F28°F76%1035.1 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ14 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair25°F21°F88%1034.2 hPa

Wind History from WWD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N9N6N6N8N9NE10
G16
N7W6W9W10W11
G16
W9W6NW5SW8S6S5S5S5S6S7SW6S5
1 day ago4NW6NW4NW6NW10
G19
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G17
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G23
NW11
G21
NW18
G27
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G25
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--N8
G19
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N8N9
G17
2 days agoCalmW4CalmCalmCalmN5N4N3NW4W5NW6NW8W7W6W4W4SW4SW5SW4SW5SW5SW7W7NW5

Tide / Current Tables for East Creek, Route 47 bridge, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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East Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:22 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:16 AM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:07 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:39 PM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.70.30.411.82.83.6443.62.921.20.50.30.51.122.93.53.63.32.7

Tide / Current Tables for Bidwell Creek entrance, Delaware Bay, New Jersey
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Bidwell Creek entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:46 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:49 AM EDT     5.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:31 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:11 PM EDT     5.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.512.13.44.85.765.64.83.52.21.10.40.51.12.33.64.85.35.14.53.42.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.