Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kings, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:37PM Friday June 22, 2018 7:19 AM EDT (11:19 UTC) Moonrise 2:22PMMoonset 1:21AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 431 Am Edt Fri Jun 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Rest of the overnight..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 431 Am Edt Fri Jun 22 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will slowly northward through Saturday. Meanwhile, low pressure over the ohio valley will move into the eastern great lakes. This low will then move eastward across new england Sunday bringing a cold front across the waters. High pressure will return Monday and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kings, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 220903
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
503 am edt Fri jun 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure situated across the region today will gradually move
offshore tonight. Meanwhile, a low pressure system organizing over
the mississippi valley leads to a warm frontal passage on Saturday
and a cold frontal passage on Sunday. High pressure over ontario
builds into the region on Monday and slowly moves off the eastern
seaboard to a position near bermuda by Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
We will have a brief reprieve from heat today being solidly in the
cool sector. The closed low developing over the mississippi valley
and progressing towards the ohio valley will be making progress
closer to our region. However, its associated front will stay a
stationary front located south of our region through the day today.

There is a chance (likely across delmarva, decreasing chances as you
go further north) for showers across the region through the day, but
for the most part the forecasted pops are on the lower side of
guidance. The reason for this is that in the mid and upper levels, a
short wave ridge ahead of the main low will be slowly lifting
northeast across our region through the day. As a result, synoptic
scale lift will be limited and to get any precipitation we will be
relying primarily on orographic lift with the onshore flow.

A combination of being in the cool sector as well as onshore flow
will help to keep temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with
highs generally in the 70s (and upper 60s in the higher terrain of
the southern poconos).

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
Chances for rain continue to increase both as the short wave ridge
lifts further away from our region and as the stationary front
begins to transition to a warm front lifting north towards northern
delmarva. Guidance trended slightly slower with the warm front as it
is expected to remain south of most of the region even overnight.

Instability north of the warm front will be minimal, so
thunderstorms are unlikely.

Thanks to increasing cloud cover, the diurnal swing in temperatures
will be relatively small from today into tonight, with the lows only
5 to 15 degrees below the highs for today.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
The main concerns are the severe thunderstorm potential Saturday
afternoon and evening including urban and poor drainage flooding,
additional showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon eve, and
a gradual increase in heat and humidity by the middle of next
week. Except for Sunday, the tendency for an onshore component
of flow will result in high temperatures several degrees cooler
near the immediate coast.

Synoptically, a closed low transitioning into an open wave as it
ejects northeastward into the eastern great lakes promotes a deep
layer southwest flow through Sunday, until the longwave trough axis
traverses the area on Monday. This will be followed by a broad mid-
level ridge through Wednesday, which is expected to be interrupted
by a northern stream perturbation on Thursday.

Saturday... Low pressure over the ohio valley will lift a warm
front slowly northward through the region. There is uncertainty
regarding how far north the front will make it, and this will
determine the severe weather potential, which will be near and
south of the front. Favorable parameters include ml CAPE up to
1,500 j kg and bulk shear around 45 kt. Damaging thunderstorm
wind gusts are certainly possible, although modest 0-3 km lapse
rates and meager d-cape suggest limited coverage. Perhaps of
more concern is the environment closer to the warm front, where
0-1 km shear over 20 kts and low lcls could favor a brief spin-
up. Hail parameters, including lapse rates in the hail growth
zone, are weak so would expect mainly small hail, except for
updrafts that are able to rotate closer to the warm front, which
would be more favorable for large hail.

South of the warm front, a warm and humid day. Model soundings
support mixing up to 850 hpa. Raised high temperatures into the
mid to upper 80s. Southerly winds will gust 20-25 mph at times.

Saturday night... Thunderstorms will diminish around midnight
with a drying trend during the overnight hours. Patchy fog is
possible in the more sheltered locations northwest of i-95.

Sunday... The cold front will move slowly through the area,
supporting the development of showers and thunderstorms. Both
moisture and instability is limited southeast of the i-95
corridor, so only mentioned a slight chance of thunder.

Northwest of i-95, included a chance of thunder, where there is
sufficient moisture and instability. Compared to Saturday, the
environment is not conducive to severe weather, but gusty winds
and heavy rainfall are possible with any thunderstorms that
develop. With the flow more offshore, high temperatures will be
in the low to mid 80s regionwide.

Sunday night through Thursday... .

The aformentioned cold front will finally clear the area Sunday
night into Monday. As such, chance of showers storms lingers
into Sunday night before a clearing trend for Monday. Highs
Monday will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s with lower
humidity. The only exception will be eastern nj, where mid 80s
are possible. Beyond this time, high pressure builds in for
Tuesday and Wednesday bringing mainly clear skies with
seasonable temperatures. The next system doesn't arrive until
next Thursday bringing a chance of showers and storms.

Aviation 09z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Through the day, we are expecting easterly onshore
winds. As a result, low clouds over the ocean are expected to
advect in through the day. Some of the guidance, including the
gfslamp, the nam, and high resolution models such as the hrrr,
depict the low clouds already over much of the coastal plains. I
have chosen to stay closer to the operational gfs, partially
because the previously mentioned guidance isn't verifying well
currently, and also because the GFS solution is closer to what i
would expect in this scenario (the front will remain well south
of the region through the day and even overnight tonight). As a
result, the current forecast is for ifr or MVFR ceilings at
kacy as early as 09z, at kmiv closer to 18z (after sunrise, i
expect the progress of low clouds to slow). For the delaware
valley TAF sites (kilg, kphl, kpne, and kttn), persistent MVFR
ceilings could develop from south to north after 18z. Having
said that, a small area of MVFR ceilings developed between 08
and 09z over kttn and kpne. With the higher cloud cover, it is
hard to know exactly the extent of this area, but it doesn't
appear to be a part of the main marine layer. Therefore, I don't
have much confidence it will linger after 12z. For kabe and
krdg, current forecast is forVFR conditions through out the
day. Showers are possible primarily south of phl and acy,
however, do not expect much in the way of visibility
restrictions if any showers move over a TAF site. Low confidence
especially in the timing of lower ceilings developing.

Tonight... MVFR and eventually ifr ceilings should develop across the
region (including kabe and krdg) overnight. Showers become
increasingly likely as well. However, as with today, I am not
expecting too much visibility restrictions as any rain should be
light and the continued easterly winds at or near 10kt should limit
fog mist development. Moderate confidence on most aspects of the
forecast, but low confidence on the timing of any flight category
changes.

Outlook...

Saturday... Conditions gradually improving to MVFR, withVFR possible
by afternoon, especially i-95 corridor terminals. But shra and tsra
will lead to brief ceiling visibility restrictions. Easterly winds
gradually backing to the southwest. Southerly winds 10-15 kt gusting
around 20 kt southwest of abe and rdg, with higher gusts possible in
tsra. Medium confidence.

Saturday night... Tsra possible until 06z. Thereafter, MVFR in low
clouds and patchy fog, mainly abe, rdg, miv, and acy. Southwest
winds less than 10 kt. Low confidence.

Sunday... MVFR in low clouds and patchy fog improving toVFR early.

Another round of shra at all terminals, with tsra possible at ttn-
abe-rdg, may lead to brief ceiling visibility restrictions. West-
southwest winds around 10 kt. Medium confidence.

Sunday night... Spotty MVFR possible due to low clouds and shra,
especially at abe and rdg. OtherwiseVFR. Winds veering to the
northwest around 10 kt. Low confidence.

Monday - Tuesday... MVFR in patchy fog possible Monday night into
early Tuesday morning. OtherwiseVFR. Northwest winds around 10 kt
on Monday becoming light and variable Monday night, veering to the
northeast on Tuesday. Medium confidence.

Marine
Easterly winds are expected to increase from south to north from
this morning through tonight. Seas will subsequently increase as
well. Therefore, expect to reach small craft advisory conditions on
most of the coastal waters by mid day. For the coastal waters
adjacent to the far northern nj shore, SCA are not expected to be
met until very late tonight.

On the delaware bay, winds and waves are expected to stay below sca
criteria. However, gusts above 20 kt will be possible at the mouth
of the bay this afternoon into this evening.

Outlook...

sca conditions continue until noon Saturday over the atlantic
waters of de and nj before winds seas gradually diminish. There
will also be the potential for reduced visibilities in showers.

For Saturday through Saturday night, warm front lifts north of
the waters with east winds shifting to south and eventually sw.

Winds should stay below SCA levels but seas may reach around 5
ft by Sunday morning. Late day Saturday into Saturday evening,
it's possible some strong thunderstorms could affect portions of
the waters bringing local wind gusts to 34+ knots.

Breezy SW winds continue Sunday with seas hovering near or just
below SCA levels. Additional late day storms are possible. A
cold front crosses the waters Sunday night into early Monday
with sub SCA conditions expected behind this feature for late
Monday through Tuesday.

Rip currents...

a moderate risk is forecast today due to the strengthening
onshore wind.

Tides coastal flooding
With a persistent onshore flow through early Saturday,
increasingly positive departures from astronomical tides are
expected. The high tide of most concern is Friday night, when
minor flooding is possible.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon today to noon edt Saturday for
anz451-452.

Small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to noon edt
Saturday for anz453>455.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to noon edt Saturday for anz450.

Synopsis... Lf
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Lf
aviation... Johnson lf
marine... Johnson lf
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 10 mi50 min E 4.1 G 6 70°F 78°F1012 hPa
CPVM2 23 mi50 min 73°F 64°F
FSNM2 25 mi50 min E 9.9 G 12 73°F 1011.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 25 mi50 min E 8.9 G 9.9 73°F 1011.3 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 26 mi40 min ESE 9.7 G 12 73°F 1011.8 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 26 mi50 min E 5.1 G 6 71°F 78°F1012.6 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi50 min 74°F 1011 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 28 mi56 min ESE 7 G 9.9 74°F 78°F1011.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 29 mi80 min E 12 G 13 73°F 76°F1011.9 hPa (+1.1)63°F
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 34 mi110 min ESE 1.9 70°F 1011 hPa69°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 35 mi50 min 70°F 77°F1011.9 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 36 mi50 min ESE 11 G 13 71°F 73°F1012.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 44 mi50 min 71°F 82°F1012.4 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi110 min E 1 67°F 1010 hPa64°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 49 mi40 min E 18 G 21 73°F 1010.1 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD19 mi88 minN 07.00 miOvercast72°F64°F78%1012.2 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD21 mi35 minENE 410.00 mi73°F66°F78%1012.2 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD22 mi45 minESE 610.00 miOvercast72°F62°F73%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE3NE4--NE5CalmNE5--NE5CalmCalmCalmCalm------------------CalmE8
1 day agoNE5NE5E4CalmCalmE4CalmSW6W6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW4CalmCalm
2 days ago--W5N8N7N7N6N7N8N4NE4N6NE5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for Chestertown, Maryland
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Chestertown
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:48 AM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:27 AM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:43 PM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:03 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.92.42.72.82.72.421.61.2111.21.61.92.22.221.71.30.90.60.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:16 AM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:47 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:47 AM EDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:39 PM EDT     0.52 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:34 PM EDT     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.8110.70.3-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.6-0.4-00.30.50.50.40.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.30.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.