Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tolchester, MD
May 7, 2024 3:09 PM EDT (19:09 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:57 AM Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 4:26 AM Moonset 6:56 PM |
ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 136 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
This afternoon - E winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tonight - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat - W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 136 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 071600 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1200 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
The cold front that stalled over Delmarva this morning will push back to the north as a warm front as an area of low pressure tracks by to the north Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This will be followed by a stronger area of low pressure moving across the region Thursday. This low will track east of the area Friday with a couple upper level disturbances then tracking through the area this coming weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As we move through today, the cold front that stalled across Delmarva this morning will try to inch back north. It probably will advance more across the interior than near the coast.
It will be a dry afternoon for most of us with only a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm within the warm sector (Delmarva and far SE PA). We're not expecting anything much from this and PoPs are only 15-30%. Highs will creep into the mid to upper 70s. Maybe a few locales touch 80.
Tonight starts dry but an area of low pressure will move through the Great Lakes with a frontal system approaching our region. This will bring another period of rain overnight. Rain will mainly be confined to areas north of Philadelphia, though some showers remain possible regionwide. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder, though instability is relatively meager. Looks at most to be just some embedded thunder. Rainfall amounts up to a quarter of an inch are anticipated. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s/low 60s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A fairly busy/active weather pattern persists across the area through the short term period. For Wednesday, a weak area of low pressure passes by to the north as it moves from upstate NY into New England. An initial round of showers and storms associated with the system's warm front will be moving out through the first part of the morning with skies then clearing and temperatures shooting up as the area breaks into the system's warm sector. Expect afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 80s across the area except 70s right near the immediate coast and over the southern Poconos. Dew points will climb into the low to mid 60s through the late morning but then should actually start to come down in the afternoon as a very weak cold front starts to move through and the winds turns more westerly.
During the warmest part of the day dew points should be mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s which isn't too high. There could be some isolated afternoon showers/storms developing but these would be few and far between as it should otherwise be dry through the latter part of the day. It is worth mentioning though that should any showers/storms develop they could become severe as winds aloft will will be quite strong with inverted-V soundings in the lower levels.
Damaging winds would be the threat. As a result of this set up, it will also be a breezy in the afternoon with west winds gusting 20 to 25 mph.
For Wednesday night, initial low moves out to sea as it passes east of New England with a new low starting to move into the midwestern states. This will eventually push a warm front towards the area by Thursday morning which could start to bring in some showers/storms towards sunrise across eastern PA and Delmarva however the trend has been slower with this.
Thursday is shaping up to be more unsettled as this next area of low pressure referenced above moves across the region bringing more widespread showers and storms. That said, there is still a lot of uncertainty on the track of this system which will have implications both on the high temperatures and the severe weather threat. The overall trend though has been for a track farther south favoring a low tracking eastward near Delmarva which would limit how far north the warm front gets. Deep layer shear will be quite strong meaning anywhere near and south of the warm front will have a heightened severe weather threat Thursday afternoon into the evening but right now the most favored area looks to be over Delmarva and southern NJ. This could change, however, if the system and its warm front tracks farther north. Currently expect highs Thursday ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s north to the mid/upper 70s south but again, this is contingent on the track of the low. With an overall slower trend with the system, showers/storms could last through a good portion of Thursday night although any severe weather threat should diminish with time.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
In the big picture, the weather pattern will remain on the unsettled side through the weekend as a long wave upper level trough lingers in the east. This should be followed by a drying trend into early next week. Getting into the details, on Friday surface low pressure will track east of the region while an upper level trough axis lags behind and pushes through the mid Atlantic. This will keep chances for showers in the forecast, especially north (POPs ranging from around 40 percent south to 70 percent north), under generally overcast skies. It will also be cooler with highs mostly in the 60s to low 70s.
Heading into Saturday, chances for showers diminish, as the initial shortwave trough moves out and shortwave ridging builds in briefly for a time. However by late day the next disturbance will be approaching and this could bring some more showers back into the region, especially over eastern PA. So we keep the mention of shower chances in the forecast but POPs are generally only in the 20 to 30 percent range. Expect highs mainly in the 60s under a mix of sun and clouds so certainly not a washout. A better chance for showers arrives by Sunday as the next shortwave trough swings through (POPs 40 to 60 percent) and there will also be more in the way of cloud cover.
Finally by early next week it should start to trend warmer and drier as the upper trough moves out and the flow over the east becomes more zonal.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...VFR. Very light flow out of the north/northeast will shift to a more southwesterly flow in the afternoon. Wind speeds 5 kt or less. Moderate confidence overall.
Tonight...MVFR/IFR conditions redeveloping with low clouds and patchy fog. Some rain expected after midnight, with the heaviest from Philadelphia on north. Southerly winds 5 kt or less. Low confidence in timing and extent of restrictions.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions favored at night in fog/mist and stratus, while VFR conditions overall during the day for most days. Chances for SHRA/TSRA throughout the period with sub- VFR conditions. More widespread SHRA with scattered TSRA Thursday afternoon and evening.
MARINE
No marine headlines expected through tonight as seas will be around 3 feet and winds less than 10 kt. Some patchy fog possible on the waters this morning. Will monitor observations to see if a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is needed.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Saturday...Overall, sub-SCA conditions through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will result in locally higher wind gusts and seas, with biggest impacts coming on Thursday afternoon and evening.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal ranges increasing this week as the new moon arrives this evening. Limited onshore flow means that there won't be much in the way of serious flooding concerns, but still widespread minor tidal flooding is expected with the high tide this evening for Atlantic coastal zones, the Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for these areas. Another round of minor coastal flooding is likely for these areas with the high tide cycle Wednesday night.
Flooding is not expected for our Maryland zones along the Chesapeake.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ070-071-104-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ012>014-020>027.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1200 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
The cold front that stalled over Delmarva this morning will push back to the north as a warm front as an area of low pressure tracks by to the north Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This will be followed by a stronger area of low pressure moving across the region Thursday. This low will track east of the area Friday with a couple upper level disturbances then tracking through the area this coming weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As we move through today, the cold front that stalled across Delmarva this morning will try to inch back north. It probably will advance more across the interior than near the coast.
It will be a dry afternoon for most of us with only a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm within the warm sector (Delmarva and far SE PA). We're not expecting anything much from this and PoPs are only 15-30%. Highs will creep into the mid to upper 70s. Maybe a few locales touch 80.
Tonight starts dry but an area of low pressure will move through the Great Lakes with a frontal system approaching our region. This will bring another period of rain overnight. Rain will mainly be confined to areas north of Philadelphia, though some showers remain possible regionwide. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder, though instability is relatively meager. Looks at most to be just some embedded thunder. Rainfall amounts up to a quarter of an inch are anticipated. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s/low 60s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A fairly busy/active weather pattern persists across the area through the short term period. For Wednesday, a weak area of low pressure passes by to the north as it moves from upstate NY into New England. An initial round of showers and storms associated with the system's warm front will be moving out through the first part of the morning with skies then clearing and temperatures shooting up as the area breaks into the system's warm sector. Expect afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 80s across the area except 70s right near the immediate coast and over the southern Poconos. Dew points will climb into the low to mid 60s through the late morning but then should actually start to come down in the afternoon as a very weak cold front starts to move through and the winds turns more westerly.
During the warmest part of the day dew points should be mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s which isn't too high. There could be some isolated afternoon showers/storms developing but these would be few and far between as it should otherwise be dry through the latter part of the day. It is worth mentioning though that should any showers/storms develop they could become severe as winds aloft will will be quite strong with inverted-V soundings in the lower levels.
Damaging winds would be the threat. As a result of this set up, it will also be a breezy in the afternoon with west winds gusting 20 to 25 mph.
For Wednesday night, initial low moves out to sea as it passes east of New England with a new low starting to move into the midwestern states. This will eventually push a warm front towards the area by Thursday morning which could start to bring in some showers/storms towards sunrise across eastern PA and Delmarva however the trend has been slower with this.
Thursday is shaping up to be more unsettled as this next area of low pressure referenced above moves across the region bringing more widespread showers and storms. That said, there is still a lot of uncertainty on the track of this system which will have implications both on the high temperatures and the severe weather threat. The overall trend though has been for a track farther south favoring a low tracking eastward near Delmarva which would limit how far north the warm front gets. Deep layer shear will be quite strong meaning anywhere near and south of the warm front will have a heightened severe weather threat Thursday afternoon into the evening but right now the most favored area looks to be over Delmarva and southern NJ. This could change, however, if the system and its warm front tracks farther north. Currently expect highs Thursday ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s north to the mid/upper 70s south but again, this is contingent on the track of the low. With an overall slower trend with the system, showers/storms could last through a good portion of Thursday night although any severe weather threat should diminish with time.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
In the big picture, the weather pattern will remain on the unsettled side through the weekend as a long wave upper level trough lingers in the east. This should be followed by a drying trend into early next week. Getting into the details, on Friday surface low pressure will track east of the region while an upper level trough axis lags behind and pushes through the mid Atlantic. This will keep chances for showers in the forecast, especially north (POPs ranging from around 40 percent south to 70 percent north), under generally overcast skies. It will also be cooler with highs mostly in the 60s to low 70s.
Heading into Saturday, chances for showers diminish, as the initial shortwave trough moves out and shortwave ridging builds in briefly for a time. However by late day the next disturbance will be approaching and this could bring some more showers back into the region, especially over eastern PA. So we keep the mention of shower chances in the forecast but POPs are generally only in the 20 to 30 percent range. Expect highs mainly in the 60s under a mix of sun and clouds so certainly not a washout. A better chance for showers arrives by Sunday as the next shortwave trough swings through (POPs 40 to 60 percent) and there will also be more in the way of cloud cover.
Finally by early next week it should start to trend warmer and drier as the upper trough moves out and the flow over the east becomes more zonal.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Today...VFR. Very light flow out of the north/northeast will shift to a more southwesterly flow in the afternoon. Wind speeds 5 kt or less. Moderate confidence overall.
Tonight...MVFR/IFR conditions redeveloping with low clouds and patchy fog. Some rain expected after midnight, with the heaviest from Philadelphia on north. Southerly winds 5 kt or less. Low confidence in timing and extent of restrictions.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions favored at night in fog/mist and stratus, while VFR conditions overall during the day for most days. Chances for SHRA/TSRA throughout the period with sub- VFR conditions. More widespread SHRA with scattered TSRA Thursday afternoon and evening.
MARINE
No marine headlines expected through tonight as seas will be around 3 feet and winds less than 10 kt. Some patchy fog possible on the waters this morning. Will monitor observations to see if a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is needed.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Saturday...Overall, sub-SCA conditions through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will result in locally higher wind gusts and seas, with biggest impacts coming on Thursday afternoon and evening.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal ranges increasing this week as the new moon arrives this evening. Limited onshore flow means that there won't be much in the way of serious flooding concerns, but still widespread minor tidal flooding is expected with the high tide this evening for Atlantic coastal zones, the Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for these areas. Another round of minor coastal flooding is likely for these areas with the high tide cycle Wednesday night.
Flooding is not expected for our Maryland zones along the Chesapeake.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ070-071-104-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ012>014-020>027.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMTN MARTIN STATE,MD | 12 sm | 74 min | SE 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 73°F | 64°F | 73% | 29.78 | |
| KAPG PHILLIPS AAF,MD | 18 sm | 14 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 79°F | 59°F | 51% | 29.74 | |
| KBWI BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTL THURGOOD MARSHALL,MD | 22 sm | 15 min | var 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 77°F | 64°F | 65% | 29.74 |
Tolchester Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:12 AM EDT 0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 06:50 AM EDT 2.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:52 PM EDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:22 PM EDT 1.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:12 AM EDT 0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 06:50 AM EDT 2.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:52 PM EDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:22 PM EDT 1.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 2.1 |
| 7 am |
| 2.2 |
| 8 am |
| 2 |
| 9 am |
| 1.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:14 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:55 AM EDT 1.29 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:27 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:24 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:39 AM EDT -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:18 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT 0.56 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:14 PM EDT -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:14 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:55 AM EDT 1.29 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:27 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:24 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:39 AM EDT -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:18 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT 0.56 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:14 PM EDT -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.5 |
| 1 am |
| -0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| -0.3 |
| 10 am |
| -0.8 |
| 11 am |
| -1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.7 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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