Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tolchester, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:26PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 2:51 PM EDT (18:51 UTC) Moonrise 1:17PMMoonset 11:14PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ531 Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island To Sandy Point- 136 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night...
This afternoon..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely through the night.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
ANZ500 136 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the waters through tonight while a weak wave of low pressure passes by to the south. A cold front will pass through the waters Wednesday and high pressure will build overhead for Thursday before moving offshore Friday. Another cold front will pass through the waters Saturday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for Thursday, and again Friday afternoon through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tolchester, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 161556
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1156 am edt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis
In the wake of the cold front which arrived last night, colder
air will filter into the region. Another cold front is expected
Wednesday. High pressure is expected to build across our region
from the west on Thursday and Friday, followed by a strong cold
front late Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Surface high pressure centered in the southern great plains
will continue to nose up the ohio river valley and into our
region today. As a result, we are anticipating cool dry weather
conditions. High temperatures should range from around 50 in the
elevated terrain of the poconos to near 60 on the coastal plain
of the upper DELMARVA and southern new jersey. The wind is
forecast to back from the northwest to the southwest around 10
mph.

An upper level jet is expected to extend from the southern
great lakes to southern new england. The jet should maintain a
fair amount of cirrus overhead through the day.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
Fair weather is expected to continue for most areas with high
pressure continuing to extend its influence over the area. A
weak upper air feature will move along the fast upper flow and
bring some extra cloudiness and perhaps a light sprinkle to srn
de and parts of NE md. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to
low 40s across most of the northern and western areas and in the
upper 40s across DELMARVA and S E nj. Winds will be light.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Summary: the main periods of interest with the long term are
with the two cold fronts. The first one is expected to arrive
tomorrow, while the second should arrive late Saturday. Showers,
gusty winds, and freeze frost in some places will be possible
with behind each of these fronts.

Details:
Wednesday... Cold front is expected to arrive in the afternoon
and evening. There will be little chance for moisture advection
ahead of the front, so stayed close to the previous forecast
with just a slight chance of showers across the poconos NW nj,
but otherwise a dry forecast. There is a chance for a freeze in
the southern poconos, and frost in the lehigh valley, berks
county, and NW nj Wednesday night behind the front.

Thursday and Friday... The main influence through this period
will be a surface high slowly building east in combination with
a mid and upper level ridge propagating east as well. The
combination of these two factors will lead to dry weather, and a
warming trend. The warming trend will be especially noticeable
Friday into early Saturday as the surface high builds east of
our region, leading to low level southwesterly flow. Before the
warming trend gets started, we could see another round of frost
Thursday night for location northwest of the i-95 corridor.

Saturday... Cold front should arrive through the second half of
the day. Unlike with the Wednesday front, there should be plenty
of moisture advection ahead of this front, thanks in large part
to the southwesterly flow ahead of the front. For now have kept
the weather type as showers, but depending on the arrival time
of the front, especially if it arrives before sunset, we could
see some thunderstorms across the region.

Sunday through Tuesday... Dry and cool conditions are expected
through this period. Frost or even a hard freeze is possible
especially Sunday night into Monday morning.

Aviation 16z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... We expectVFR conditions to continue today as a high
pressure ridge begins to move across the area. Winds will be
mostly NW at 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts 15 to 20 knots
possible.

Tonight... MoreVFR expected with mostly clear skies. Winds will
be light from the W or nw.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Wednesday night... MostlyVFR. Winds will shift to
the northwest late in the day and may gust near or above 25 kt
at times.

Thursday through Friday...VFR conditions expected. Light wind
becoming southwesterly on Friday around 10 kt.

Saturday... MostlyVFR though temporary visibility and ceiling
restrictions are possible with showers. Winds starting
southwesterly, but an abrupt shift to northwesterly is expected
late in the day Saturday.

Marine
We should see several hours lull in the wind until very late
tonight, when winds and seas increase once again above sca
thresholds.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Wednesday night... West to northwesterly gale
force wind gusts are likely primarily on the atlantic coastal
waters. SCA conditions, possibly gale conditions, are likely on
the delaware bay.

Thursday... Northwesterly wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt are
expected.

Thursday night and Friday... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Friday night and Saturday... Southwesterly wind gusts around 25
kt are possible with an abrupt shift to northwesterly late in
the day Saturday with gusts up to 30 kt possible.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Iovino
short term... O'hara
long term... Johnson
aviation... Johnson o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 0 mi34 min Calm G 1.9 58°F 65°F1021.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 15 mi34 min WNW 4.1 G 6 58°F 1020.7 hPa
FSNM2 15 mi34 min W 7 G 8.9 57°F 1020.2 hPa
CPVM2 17 mi34 min 57°F 42°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 18 mi34 min 72°F
44063 - Annapolis 19 mi22 min E 3.9 G 7.8 57°F 1021.3 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 20 mi34 min 61°F 1020.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi52 min NNE 4.1 G 6 56°F 68°F1022.2 hPa (-2.2)43°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 32 mi40 min NW 8 G 9.9 56°F 64°F1021 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi142 min ENE 1 57°F 1023 hPa42°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi34 min 65°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi34 min WNW 5.1 G 9.9 56°F 61°F1020.5 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 44 mi142 min NW 6 58°F 1022 hPa37°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 45 mi40 min 58°F 68°F1022.1 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi22 min NNW 1.9 G 5.8 58°F 1021.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi34 min NW 6 G 8.9 60°F 66°F1021.3 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 47 mi34 min WNW 11 G 14 56°F 68°F1020.4 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD13 mi67 minW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F42°F52%1021.7 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD17 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair57°F42°F59%1021.3 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD18 mi66 minW 87.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F39°F51%1021.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD20 mi58 minNNW 610.00 miFair63°F41°F45%1021.6 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD20 mi58 minno data mi61°F37°F43%1022 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD22 mi58 minWNW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F37°F44%1021 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3S9S4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW11SW7SW6W16
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE4S7S7S8S7S5S5S6SW6SW6
2 days agoW10W12NW12W10W7W5W4CalmW6W5CalmW3CalmNW4W3CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Tolchester Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tolchester Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:07 AM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:10 AM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:13 PM EDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:07 PM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.91.91.71.51.310.90.80.80.91.11.21.31.31.210.90.80.70.70.91.11.4

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:40 AM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:19 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:59 AM EDT     0.48 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:39 PM EDT     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:51 PM EDT     0.76 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.4-0.10.20.40.50.40.2-0-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.20.50.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.