Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brooklyn Park, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:47PM Thursday April 18, 2019 12:51 PM EDT (16:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:00PMMoonset 5:17AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 1101 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Rest of today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Isolated showers.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers and tstms.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1101 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will cross the waters today. Strong low pressure and its cold front will likely impact the waters Friday and Friday night, with its effects lingering into the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Friday night through Saturday night, possibly continuing into Sunday. Gale warnings are possible Friday and Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brooklyn Park, MD
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location: 39.21, -76.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 181426
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1026 am edt Thu apr 18 2019

Synopsis
A warm front is moving north across the region today. Strong
low pressure and its associated cold front will impact the
region Friday and Friday night, with an upper level low
affecting the area through Sunday. High pressure will return on
Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Easterly flow and low clouds linger across northern and eastern
areas at this time, but they are eroding from south to north as
the warm front lifts northward. Warm air advection and a weak
disturbance aloft has led to the development of a few showers
and even an isolated thunderstorm or two across portions of
eastern WV and central western va. These will likely weaken as
the day wears on, but showers are possible through early
afternoon especially near and west of the i-81 corridor.

As an initial area of low pressure moves northeastward through
the great lakes and into ontario quebec today and a more potent
low pressure system organizes in the south central us, southerly
flow will increase across the region, and the stalled boundary
will lift northward as a warm front this morning. This will
place the entire region in the warm sector by the afternoon
hours.

Temperatures are taking some time to rise with the clouds, but
once they break, highs are expected to reach the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday night
A strong upper level trough will then dig southward over the
mississippi valley tonight as a surface low ejects
northeastward into the ohio valley. Deep south to southwest flow
will be in place over the region with increasing warmth and
moisture. Some showers are possible towards morning, but most
locations likely remain on the drier side. Lows will only fall
into the 60s.

Very active weather expected for Friday and Friday night. The
upper trough is expected to close off and track eastward through
tn ky during the day Friday and towards WV and the appalachians
Friday night, with elongated surface low pressure moving
through oh ky tn and towards the eastern great lakes. Aloft,
the mid-atlantic and southeastern states will be under strong
diffluent flow, with forcing increasing through the day and
especially in the evening and overnight as the closed low
approaches. Deep southerly flow will be in place with a
connection to the tropics, and precipitable water values in
excess of 1.5 inches. This will promote the development of
showers thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rain and
incidents of flooding Friday and Friday night. In addition, a
strong low level wind field will aid in the development of
potentially organized convection, possibly severe. The limiting
factor will be degree of stabilization (500-900 j kg sb ml
cape), but given strong wind field (850mb winds 50-60 knots) and
strong forcing, much of the region remains in a slight risk for
severe thunderstorms. Highs Friday will be in the low to mid
70s, with lows Friday night in the 50s to low 60s.

The main frontal push will exit eastward on Saturday, however
the filling surface low and closed upper low will remain near
or west of the region on Saturday. This will lead to continued
chances of rain showers, and even a few thunderstorms, with the
highest probabilities west of the blue ridge, closer to the
upper low. Highs Saturday in the 60s to near 70f. A few
snowflakes mixing in with lingering rain showers are even
possible in the mountains Saturday night with the upper low
still overhead. Lows Saturday night generally 40-50f.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Showers may linger Sunday into Monday as an upper low slowly
pivots overhead. High pressure is expected to build near and
south of the region from the ohio valley for early next week.

This should lead to warming temperatures and increasing
humidity. Mainly dry weather is expected during the first half
of next week, though a cold front may approach from the north on
Wednesday.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
MVFR stratus, with pockets of ifr, is currently in place at
iad bwi mtn dca mrb on the cool side of the backdoor frontal
boundary.VFR will return by the early afternoon at all taf
sites under increasing southerly flow. Additional low ceilings
will likely overspread the area later tonight, with periodic
reductions to visibilities also likely Friday and Friday night
in showers thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may become strong
to locally severe. In addition periodic gusty southerly winds
and low level wind shear are likely.

Some improvement likely Saturday although isolated rain showers
will still be around.

Brief sub-vfr possible in any shower activity or lower CIGS sun
into Mon in generally W flow as an upper low moves overhead.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions are currently being observed this morning
across all waters. A warm front will move across the area during
the day, with southerly flow increasing behind it this
afternoon, this evening, and tonight. Will leave start time of
sca at noon, however, there may be mixing issues initially, with
the higher probability of SCA gusts late in the day and
evening. SCA has been extended through Friday and likely will
need extension through Friday night with strong low level flow
and pressure gradient ahead of an approaching low and cold
front. The gradient is strong enough such that gales are
possible later Friday into Friday night. Stronger gusts may
occur with thunderstorms late Friday into Friday night, perhaps
50 knots or more and special marine warnings may be necessary.

Low pressure will continue to reside near the waters Saturday
and a small craft advisory may still be needed for the waters.

Sca may linger into Sunday before gradient relaxes.

Hydrology
Soils remain moist across the region with water levels remaining
at or above normal. With strong southerly fetch bringing very
high precipitable water values (in excess of 1.5 inches) and
strong diffluence expected with a warm atmosphere, high
intensity rainfall is expected late Friday Friday night, with
potential prolonged moderate heavy rain if training of rain
bands occurs. Therefore, flooding, both flash and river-type, is
possible Friday into the weekend. Flood watches and or flash
flood watches may become necessary.

Tides coastal flooding
Southerly flow will cause tidal anomalies to increase through
the end of the week. This will likely result in at least minor
flooding at most tide sites, with near moderate flooding not out
of the question depending on exact evolution of approaching low
pressure later this week.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Friday for anz530>543.

Synopsis... Mm rcm
near term... Mm rcm
short term... Mm
long term... Dhof
aviation... Mm dhof rcm
marine... Mm dhof rcm
hydrology... Mm rcm
tides coastal flooding... Dhof


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 3 mi51 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 1015.7 hPa (-0.9)
FSNM2 3 mi57 min E 1.9 G 4.1 60°F 1015.3 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 4 mi51 min E 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 57°F1015.3 hPa (-0.9)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 17 mi51 min 60°F 1015.3 hPa (-1.0)
CPVM2 18 mi51 min 57°F 57°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 18 mi51 min WSW 7 G 8.9 58°F 58°F1016 hPa (-1.1)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 23 mi51 min SSE 5.1 G 6 56°F 55°F1016.7 hPa (-0.7)56°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 33 mi51 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 62°F 62°F1015.6 hPa (-1.2)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 46 mi51 min SSW 2.9 G 11 69°F 59°F1015.5 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD5 mi57 minno data mi63°F54°F73%1015.8 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD5 mi57 minSW 49.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F55°F70%1015.4 hPa
Baltimore / Martin, MD12 mi61 minESE 57.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F59°F88%1016.6 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD13 mi69 minWSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F53°F73%1016.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD17 mi2 hrsESE 77.00 miOvercast61°F55°F81%1016.4 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD21 mi71 minWSW 55.00 miFog/Mist61°F59°F94%1015.9 hPa
College Park Airport, MD24 mi67 minS 310.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F54°F75%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from DMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Carroll, Maryland
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Fort Carroll
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:39 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:24 AM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:25 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:56 PM EDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.40.71.11.51.71.61.51.20.80.50.20.10.10.30.711.31.41.31.10.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Thu -- 01:36 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:55 AM EDT     1.08 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:09 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:19 AM EDT     -1.03 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:26 PM EDT     0.81 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:22 PM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.30.20.611.10.90.60.1-0.4-0.8-1-1-0.7-0.30.20.60.80.80.50.1-0.3-0.7-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.