Thursday, March30, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Highland Holiday, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:55PM Thursday March 30, 2017 2:46 AM EDT (06:46 UTC) Moonrise 8:14AMMoonset 10:05PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Highland Holiday, OH
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location: 39.21, -83.45     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 300610
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
210 am edt Thu mar 30 2017

A warm front will push north across the region tonight into
Thursday. Low pressure and its associated cold front will then
move into the great lakes and ohio valley Thursday night. The
low will move off slowly to the east on Friday, with high
pressure following behind for the weekend. Warm temperatures on
Thursday will give way to cooler readings over the weekend.

Near term /until 6 am this morning/
Lower stratus has mixed out of the southeastern CWA this
afternoon and a thin cirrus will continue to overspread the ohio
valley this evening. Over northwestern portions of the cwa,
this may primarily be a more altostratus deck around 10kft which
will help insulate the region and limit nighttime dropoffs.

A warm front will approach the region from the southwest
tonight. Previous forecast had the thought that there could be
enough moist ascent for a few showers to develop ahead of the
warm frontal boundary. Models were stingy on the precip chances
tonight and early tomorrow and I dropped the chances by a bit
but did not entirely remove them. Overnight lows will range
from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s south.

Short term /6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday/
Vigorous upper level low will rotate northeast from the southern
plains to the middle mississippi valley on Thursday. The warm
front is forecast to push through the remainder of the northern
zones during the morning/early afternoon. Again, there could be
a few showers with this front. For the afternoon hours, much of
the area will be warm sector. Given an increased pressure
gradient and diurnal mixing, south winds may be gusty in the 25
mph to 35 mph range. It should be warm with highs ranging from
the mid 60s northwest to the mid/upper 70s southeast where
clouds may have some breaks. It is unclear based on various
convection allowing models whether some weakening showers/storms
over indiana will hold together an affect western zones during
the afternoon hours. Thus, only chance pops have been employed
region wide. The threat of severe weather appears low with this
possible batch for the afternoon.

The threat for severe storms will ramp up for the first part of
of Thursday night, especially west, as low pressure and a cold
front move into the great lakes and ohio valley. As is typically
the case, appears that showers and thunderstorms will get going
to our west during the afternoon hours, generally in the
vicinity of a prefrontal convergent trough. Various convection
allowing models push a congealed, likely weakening qlcs moving
into our western zones around 03z, or 11 pm edt, then push it
east through the forecast area overnight. Although the low
level jet will increase during the evening/overnight,
instability wanes and becomes weaker, especially east. So, if
severe weather were to occur, the primary threat would be
damaging winds. Am not thrilled about the potential for large
hail given decreasing instability. Isolated tornadoes can not be
ruled out given unidirectional speed shear, but if they did
occur, they would be of the "spin up" transient short-lived
type and not supercellular. Lows will fall into the lower to mid

Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/
Period should begin with line of convection exiting the eastern
portions of the fa. An h5 low will then swing up the ohio valley in
its wake. This should add enuf lift for some scattered showers and
maybe a rumble of thunder for Friday. Highs on Friday will be held
down in the upper 50s to lower 60s by the clouds and pcpn.

The upper low will slowly exit to the east Friday night, and high
pressure at the surface will build in for Saturday. Highs on
Saturday will be near seasonable values, in the 50s.

Models begin to show their differences by late Sunday as another
system ejects out of texas. The ECMWF is slower in the return pcpn
versus the gfs/cmcnh. Ran a compromise on the forecast with a lean
towards the wetter models. Highs Sunday will range from the mid 50s
in the north to the mid 60s in the south.

The system kicks out through the tn valley early next week. The
better pcpn is forecast south of the region, but the fa should still
see some pcpn. Highs will be 60s each day.

Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/
Upper level low over the central plains to slide NE into the mid
ms vly today and across the great lakes tonight into Friday.

Flow backs with an increase in mid and high level clouds this
morning. In WAA pattern a few rain showers will be possible
across the northern TAF sites this morning. Due to limited
coverage have only a mention of vcsh at kday/kcmh/klck around

Showers and thunderstorm will develop in the warm and moist
environment to our west ahead of surface wave tracking into
central il. These storms to push into the western TAF sites
toward evening. Have prevailing thunderstorms overspreading
all TAF sites associated with a pre-frontal surface trof, with
MVFR conditions developing. Brief ifr conditions will be
possible in thunderstorms this evening. Eventually expect MVFR
cigs to develop later tonight in showers with embedded thunder
with cold front passage early Friday.

East winds at 10 to 15 kts will veer to the south and increase
to around 15 kts today. Given a tightening pressure gradient
some wind gust in the 25 knot to 30 knot range will be possible
this afternoon.

Outlook... MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely into Friday
evening. MVFR to ifr ceilings likely Friday night into

Iln watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Hickman
near term... Franks
short term... Hickman
long term... Sites
aviation... Ar

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, Airborne Airpark Airport, OH24 mi52 minE 410.00 miA Few Clouds48°F42°F80%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from ILN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN9NE8NE7NE6NE8NE9E10E8E9
1 day agoS5SW5CalmSW4SW4W6W5NW5N11N7N9N11N9N9N8N8N4N9NE8N8NE11NE9NE10NE12
2 days agoCalmS3S3SW4SW4S3CalmSW44CalmS6S6CalmSE6SE4S5S3SE4E4E4SW10S3S4S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.