Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 12:09 AM   Moonset 9:04 AM

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FXUS65 KREV 290935 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 235 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS

Seasonable temperatures and breezy winds will prevail today and Tuesday, except areas near the Oregon border will see cooler conditions. This cooler air mass will spread southward across the region Wednesday. Temperatures will then quickly rebound to above average by Friday and Saturday. Increased breezes and a slight chance of showers may also return next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Points:

* Near average temperatures to start the week, then a cool down Wednesday before rebounding to above average by Friday. However, areas near the OR border will remain cool through Wednesday.

* A storm track generally across the Pacific NW will bring periods of increased breezes early this week, and again next weekend.

* Dry conditions prevail this week, then low-end potential for showers returns for the first weekend of May.

A flat ridge over the southwest US and southern Great Basin will keep a dry pattern in place for much of the upcoming week. Fast moving shortwaves across the Pacific NW will push notably cooler air across areas north of a Susanville-Gerlach line today and Tuesday, where highs are only expected to reach the 50s.
Elsewhere, we'll hang on to more seasonable temperatures in the mid 60-lower 70s for lower elevations, and 55-65 degrees for Sierra communities. Increased breezes will make it feel somewhat like a mix of spring and fall, with gusts in the 25-35 mph range (with potential gusts around 40 mph for wind prone areas near and north of I-80) today, then slightly less wind on Tuesday. For those heading outdoors the next 2 days, it may be comfortable for shorts and t-shirts through mid-afternoon, but quickly transition to jacket and jeans weather near and after sunset.

By Wednesday, a shallow back door cold front will bring a shift to north winds, and spread the cooler air that was bottled up in far northeast CA-northwest NV southward across the remainder of the region. Highs across all of eastern CA-western NV will range from the 50s-lower 60s, followed by a chilly Wednesday night with lows well below freezing in Sierra valleys, and freezing temps possibly extending into much of western NV/northeast CA away from the main urban areas. For those who got spring gardens started during the mid-April warmup, it would be a good idea to protect/cover any cold-sensitive outdoor plants Wednesday night.

Temperatures will quickly rebound by Thursday into the start of the weekend with mid to upper 70s returning for Western NV valleys and mid 60s for Sierra valleys by Friday-Saturday. Dry conditions will continue through at least Friday before some lower chances for showers (15-30%) arrive across portions of northeast CA/northwest NV and spread into the Sierra and parts of west central NV late Saturday and into Sunday. While a majority of the ensemble guidance keeps precip amounts light with weak troughing along the west coast, a small number (about 10-20%) of the simulations show a more aggressive scenario with a deeper closed low near the west coast. In this case, a more notable push of moisture would spread into the Sierra and northeast CA, along with gusty winds and temps dropping to near/below average regionwide by late weekend and the early part of next week (May 5-7). MJD

AVIATION

* Areas of FZFG are again likely at KTRK between 10-16Z this morning, but this fog potential will decrease on subsequent nights as drier air spreads across eastern CA/western NV.
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through the next few days.

* Increasing west to northwest breezes with gusts of 25-30 kt are projected at the far western NV terminals today and Tuesday mainly between 20Z-03Z, with lighter gusts near 20 kt for the Sierra/Tahoe area terminals. Minor mountain wave turbulence can be expected, with potential for brief LLWS especially in the late morning/early PM before the increased winds mix down to the valleys.

* A dry cold front will then shift winds to the N-NE by Tuesday night-Wednesday, although gusts will be lighter (mainly 15-20 kt).

MJD

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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