Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Bay, NV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:42PM Thursday November 22, 2018 3:09 AM PST (11:09 UTC) Moonrise 4:48PMMoonset 6:01AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Bay, NV
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location: 39.22, -120     debug


Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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Fxus65 krev 212340
afdrev
area forecast discussion
national weather service reno nv
340 pm pst Wed nov 21 2018

Synopsis
A series of storm systems will bring periods of valley rain and
mountain snow tonight, with increasing winds Thursday through
Friday night, along with more rain and snow mainly near the
sierra. Strongest winds are expected on Friday with damaging
gusts possible. Be prepared for slow travel and periods of winter
driving conditions through Friday night in the sierra.

Short term
Main changes: we added the basin and range to the wind advisory
from Thursday pm thru Friday pm. All other winter, wind and fire
weather headlines remain intact with no notable changes in snow
totals, elevations or wind speeds.

Highlights through Friday:
* increasing winds Thursday afternoon with strong, damaging wind
potential by Friday morning. Winds will be highest near the
highway 395 interstate 580 corridor and present a danger to
higher profile vehicles.

* rain and snow increasing in the sierra through the rest of this
afternoon and evening, with peak precip rates between 5 pm and
1 am, possibly lasting another 1-2 hours for mono county. Expect
travel delays and slick driving conditions over sierra passes.

* best chance for rain and snow across western nv is this evening
after 6 pm (snow levels mainly above 6000 ft), possibly lasting
into the overnight hours for the us-95 corridor.

While radar echoes are rather spotty at this time, moisture will
increase with the main trough moving inland across ca, with better
forcing and upper jet support. This will result in increasing
rates of precip first for the sierra, then spilling over into
western nv.

Rain snow totals tonight: for the higher sierra elevations above
8000 feet, we are still expecting 6-15", with locally up to 18".

The greatest uncertainty will be between 6000-8000 feet where
snowfall totals will be more limited with a rain-snow mix at
times. While some areas west of highway 89 may receive about 4" of
snowfall, most of the tahoe basin and mono county below 8000 feet
may only get an inch or two of accumulation during heavier snow
bursts, with melting on many surfaces due to initial rain and
relatively warm surfaces. This snow will have a high liquid
content ("sierra cement") at nearly all elevations with the mild
air mass and subtropical moisture tap. For western nv and
northeast ca valleys, rainfall is projected to range from
0.10-0.30", with some localized amounts up to 0.50" possible.

Winds tonight: south winds with gusts generally 25-35 mph with
ridge winds generally south-southwest gusting 50-65 mph. See the
aviation segment below for more details.

Thanksgiving day...

as precipitation tapers down, winds will begin to increase. Snow
will likely continue, but at a much slower rate, in the sierra
due to orographic lift with moist southwest flow. This will be
the lull between two waves.

Sierra snow: while snowfall rates will be lower, a few more
inches of snow are expected for the higher sierra above 8000 feet
throughout the day. Travel impacts would likely continue for those
heading over passes, but to a lower degree.

Winds: winds will increase for thanksgiving day with gusts
generally 40-50 mph. Downslope areas like highway 395 between
doyle and susanville could see higher gusts up to 60 mph; this is
a threat for high profile vehicles. Additional caution is advised.

Wind advisories have been issued from late Thursday morning that
continue into early Friday morning.

Friday and Saturday...

winds will be the primary feature with the next storm east of the
sierra crest, with strong, downslope winds forecast for Friday as
another wave of moisture moves into the sierra. Expect warmer
temperatures along the sierra front due to compression from
downsloping winds. Moisture will begin to rapidly dry as well.

These winds could produce fire weather concerns; please see the
fire weather discussion below.

Light showers are anticipated mainly near the sierra, with a bit
more coverage and intensity across northeast ca and the northern
sierra by daybreak Friday, and light spillover showers into
western nevada mainly north of i-80 by Friday morning. Very little
precipitation is expected in the southern sierra with much of the
eastern sierra front shadowed out during the day Friday.

If travel is necessary during Friday or Saturday, it would be
better to wait until Saturday when conditions greatly improve with
much lower wind speeds and minimal precipitation. Mjd

Long term Sunday through next week...

key points:
* changes to overall forecast thinking were minimal.

* Sunday through Monday will be quiet with high pressure above.

* the active weather pattern looks to return for Tuesday onward
with increased chances for rain snow and strong winds.

Some lingering showers are possible for northeast california and
along the nv or border during Sunday morning due to a passing
shortwave towards the northeast of the region. Clouds will then
clear during the day on Sunday as a high pressure ridge briefly
builds over the west coast. Dry conditions, light winds, and
seasonable temperatures are likely under the ridge through Monday.

By Monday night, cloud cover will start to increase ahead of a low
pressure trough towards the northwest. New model guidance shows this
potential system being a little more progressive bringing increased
chances for precipitation and winds during the Tuesday-Wednesday
timeframe. Atmospheric river guidance tools do show some sign of an
ar feature with this system for the middle to the end of next week,
but overall forecast confidence is low at this time as this is still
a week out.

The active weather pattern looks to continue beyond Wednesday and
Thursday of next week with chances for more wind, rain, and snow.

-laguardia

Aviation
Wet and windy weather is in store starting this afternoon through
early Saturday morning with a series of storms moving through the
region. Southerly winds have already begun to increase this
afternoon with gusts currently reaching up to 25 kts. It is
important to note that a southerly wind direction does bring an
increased risk of llws to krno. Peak gusts are likely to reach
near 30 kt for southerly wind direction favored locations,
including krno and ktvl.

Sw-w winds will further increase Thursday and Thursday night with
gusts of 30-45 kt bringing turbulence and mountain wave activity.

The strongest winds look to affect the area Friday morning and
afternoon with forecast model soundings and cross-sections all
indicating a downslope wind event. Wind gusts could reach 45-60
kt along the eastern sierra front, which includes krno, kcxp, and
kmmh. Wind prone locations could easily see even stronger gusts.

Windy conditions will also exist for mountain terminals with 35-45
kt gusts possible for ktvl and ktrk. Confidence is increasing in
this event and it could cause significant air travel impacts in
the region starting around daybreak Friday through Friday evening.

Periods of valley rain and mountain snow are also expected from
tonight through early Saturday, leading to lowered ceilings and
visibility along with mountain obscuration especially during
rounds of steady precip tonight, and near the sierra and northeast
ca at times Thursday night into Friday.

For krno and kcxp, precipitation will stay as rain with less
than a 10% chance of any snow mixing in. Ktrk and ktvl will be
going back and forth between rain and snow through the event with
minor accumulations possible. Kmmh will likely be mostly snow
tonight into Thursday morning when the chances are highest for a
few inches of accumulation, then a mix of rain and snow is
projected for Friday. -dawn laguardia

Fire weather
Light rain showers are currently moving through northeast ca and the
tahoe basin, with a period of wetting rain expected this evening
across much of the region.

Stronger southwest winds are anticipated for Thursday, with gusts
reaching 35 to 50 mph. Humidity values will be on the higher
side, lessening widespread fire weather concerns.

The main concern is the threat for southwest to west gusts of 50
mph or more Friday morning through Friday evening with simulations
showing a classic downslope wind event setting up. Wind gusts
could reach 70 mph along the eastern sierra front from
approximately hwy 50 north, with gusts to 55 mph south of there.

Wind prone locations could easily see even stronger wind speeds.

Downslope winds also cause drying, which will lower humidity
values from the eastern sierra front eastward.

A fire weather watch remains in effect for Friday for the deserts in
eastern lassen county into northern washoe county and across much of
western nevada. While the relative humidity values will not be as
dry as typical red flag events, with 25-35% humidity expected, the
extreme winds could still easily carry flames should a fire ignite.

This watch will be dependent on what occurs with the rain and snow
this evening into Thursday. If areas receive decent rainfall, it
may be enough to mitigate the fire danger concerns. -dawn zach

Rev watches warnings advisories
Nv... Fire weather watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
nvz450-453-458-459.

Wind advisory from noon to 10 pm pst Thursday nvz005.

High wind watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening
nvz002-003-005.

Winter storm warning until 6 am pst Thursday nvz002.

Wind advisory from noon Thursday to 4 am pst Friday nvz002-003.

Wind advisory from noon Thursday to 7 pm pst Friday nvz004.

Ca... Fire weather watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
caz270-273-278.

Wind advisory from noon to 10 pm pst Thursday caz070-071.

High wind watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening
caz070>072.

Winter storm warning until 6 am pst Thursday caz073.

Winter storm warning until 6 am pst Thursday caz072.

Wind advisory from noon Thursday to 4 am pst Friday caz072.

For more information from the national weather service visit...

http: weather.Gov reno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Truckee-Tahoe, CA10 mi74 minSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F32°F93%1015.6 hPa
Carson City Airport, NV14 mi74 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F35°F100%1014.9 hPa
South Lake Tahoe, Lake Tahoe Airport, CA21 mi76 minS 32.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F32°F96%1013.6 hPa
Reno, Reno Tahoe International Airport, NV23 mi74 minVar 310.00 miPartly Cloudy38°F36°F93%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from TRK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5S8W5S11
G18
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NE3CalmNW5E3SW7S8W5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmW8W8W7CalmCalmS3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmN3Calm--N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California
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Sacramento #4
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Thu -- 01:56 AM PST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:33 AM PST     2.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:55 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:12 PM PST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:55 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:38 PM PST     3.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:41 PM PST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30-0.10.211.72.22.221.71.30.90.60.50.71.32.333.132.62.11.50.9

Tide / Current Tables for Clarksburg #4, Sacramento River, California
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Clarksburg #4
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Thu -- 12:26 AM PST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:24 AM PST     2.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:55 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:42 AM PST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:29 PM PST     3.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:55 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:41 PM PST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-000.51.21.92.22.221.61.10.80.60.50.91.72.53.13.12.92.51.91.30.70.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Reno, NV (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Reno, NV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.