Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Bay, NV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:22PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 4:53 AM PDT (11:53 UTC) Moonrise 6:26AMMoonset 7:18PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Bay, NV
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location: 39.22, -120     debug


Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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Fxus65 krev 280939
afdrev
area forecast discussion
national weather service reno nv
239 am pdt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
Dry conditions, light winds and a warming trend will be the story
for today and Wednesday before the next storm arrives early
Thursday morning. The Thursday storm will bring another round of
rain and snow showers, but also strong gusty winds. Thursday
afternoon and Friday will be much cooler behind this storm.

Short term
Forecast remains on track early this morning. We are getting a
little bit of everything this week, which is pretty typical for
the spring. Today/Wednesday will be warm and dry with light
winds, while Thursday we will get another storm into the region.

Main concerns with the Thursday system will be for a brief, but
intense period of strong winds and another round of rain and snow
showers.

Dry conditions with light winds are expected for today and
Wednesday as shortwave ridging builds in across the sierra and
western nevada. Temperatures will warm today and Wednesday as
well, with the warmest temperatures expected Wednesday afternoon.

By late Wednesday night, hints of the incoming storm will begin
across northeastern california and far northwest nevada. Weak warm
air advection precipitation may begin to impact areas along the
ca/or border late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning
before the main cold front pushes into the region.

The main storm will drop through on Thursday morning and will be
a quick hitter. This storm will bring strong winds along with
chances for rain and snow. Let's take a look at the wind potential
first. As the cold front approaches from the north, the surface
pressure gradients tighten drastically just before 8am on
Thursday. 700 mb wind speeds are right around 40-50kts along the
cold front as it pushes southward across the western sierra front.

Since this appears to be a gradient-driven wind we could see
sustained winds not dramatically lower than the wind gusts, so
gusts between 45 to 55 mph will be possible for Thursday. Locally
higher gusts may occur in mono and mineral counties as the cold
front drops south through the day with gusts up to 60 mph
possible. Impacts due to the strong winds, include but are not
limited to, travel restrictions to high profile vehicles and
increased risk for turbulence and wind shear for aviation.

Now, onto the precipitation potential. The cold front associated
with the storm will produce a brief, but intense period of
precipitation early Thursday morning between 8am and 11am for
areas north of interstate 80 and between 11am and 2pm for areas
south of interstate 80. Although model forecasts do show the front
weakening as it drops southward past the interstate 80 corridor.

Snow levels will drop quickly to most valley floors along and
behind the cold front, but since this is occurring during the day,
there should be limited accumulations for the lower valleys. Keep
in mind that wet roads can create slick driving conditions, and
that there may be a brief period of more intense precipitation
right along the cold front that may limit visibilities for the
morning commute. There is potential for some thunderstorms to
develop in the vicinity of the cold front as well, which may
result in some pellet showers. Precipitation liquid totals don't
appear to exceed 0.25 inch for the sierra and western nevada for
this storm.

There is the potential for some upslope showers through early
Friday morning for alpine and mono counties as the flow turns
northeast behind the front. Otherwise much of the precipitation
will have ended for areas north of highway 50 by Thursday night.

-edan

Long term Friday through Monday...

minimal changes were made to the extended forecast this morning.

Forecast models continue to struggle with the evolution of the long
wave pattern... And thus the embedded short waves within that
pattern... Beyond day 5.

An upper low exiting the region Friday should result in lingering
showers early east of highway 95. Brisk north winds are also
possible Friday. This should keep the forecast highs a bit below
guidance. A ridge builds for Saturday offering lighter winds and
warming temperatures.

Then everything starts to break down. The ECMWF is still persisting
in dropping an open wave across the forecast area Sunday. This would
result in showers... Breezier conditions and cooler highs. This is in
contrast to the GFS that keeps the ridge in place. But the more
interesting development in the GFS is an upper low dropping south
off the west coast that becomes a closed low by Monday morning. The
gefs ensemble members are split for Sunday... But many do show some
type of trough over the region... Closer to the ecmwf.

The GFS brings a trough across the region Monday... But shower
coverage is minimal as energy is being sheared out between the low
off the southern ca coast and another trough over ERN wa/or.

Meanwhile the ECMWF is developing a ridge off shore with northwest
flow aloft. The ensemble members have a large spread in their
solutions by then with no one solution favored.

Given the difficulties the models are having with these transient
lows... Not atypical for this time of year... We will stay with a dry
forecast for Sunday at this time and slight chance for precipitation
over the northern forecast area for Monday. Highs should be a bit
cooler with this scenario Monday following above average highs for
Saturday and Sunday.

Aviation
Today and Wednesday will be dry with light winds, while another
system queues up for Thursday. Rain and snow showers with gusty
winds are expected with that next system, with a few thunderstorms
possible over west central nv. Strong, gusty winds will increase
late Wednesday into early Thursday morning with increasing
potential for turbulence and low level wind shear for terminals in
the sierra and western nevada. -edan

Rev watches/warnings/advisories
Nv... None.

Ca... None.

For more information from the national weather service visit...

http://weather.Gov/reno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Truckee-Tahoe, CA10 mi78 minN 010.00 miFair27°F23°F86%1023.4 hPa
Carson City Airport, NV14 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair32°F23°F69%1024 hPa
South Lake Tahoe, Lake Tahoe Airport, CA21 mi60 minS 310.00 miFair27°F23°F85%1022.6 hPa
Reno, Reno Tahoe International Airport, NV23 mi58 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds35°F26°F70%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from TRK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--N9NW11
G15
--NW8W8W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmSW7
G15
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G17
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S7SW9SW7S7SW4SW8S9S17
G21
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G23
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G18
SW3SW11CalmN3CalmCalmW3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W7
G15
CalmW9W8W9W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento, Sacramento River, California
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Sacramento
Click for MapNote: These data apply only during low river stages.

Tue -- 03:26 AM PDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:32 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:02 AM PDT     2.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:59 PM PDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:26 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:23 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:24 PM PDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.70.30.20.20.91.82.732.92.521.50.90.50.30.10.51.32.32.82.82.62.1

Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California
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Sacramento #4
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:27 AM PDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:32 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:02 AM PDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:59 PM PDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:26 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:23 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:25 PM PDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.70.30.10.20.81.82.62.92.82.521.50.90.50.20.10.51.32.32.82.82.62.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Reno, NV (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Reno, NV
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.