Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cynthiana, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:55PM Thursday March 30, 2017 8:33 PM EDT (00:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:13AMMoonset 10:05PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cynthiana, OH
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location: 39.24, -83.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 302353
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
753 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms can be expected tonight, as a low
pressure system and its associated cold front move through the
ohio valley. The low will move slowly off to the east on Friday,
with some showers lingering on its backside. High pressure will
offer dry weather and cooler temperatures for this weekend.

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/
Near term forecast will focus on the potential for severe
weather tonight.

This afternoon, a warm front is lifting northward across the
cwfa. With increasing instability near the warm front, some
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the whitewater/miami
valley and west central ohio. A tornado watch has been issued
for this region into this evening as conditions are favorable
for rotating storms, producing large hail, damaging winds or an
isolated tornado.

For the overnight period, surface low pressure and its
associated cold front will move east into the ohio valley.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage as large
scale ascent ahead of a negatively titled mid level circulation
will couple with increase low level convergence in the vicinity
of a prefrontal trough/convergent area. Convection allowing
models are giving mixed signals on the mode of thunderstorms as
instability wanes considerably overnight. Right now, it looks
like clusters of storms, perhaps forming into a ill-defined
qlcs, will work its way from west to east through the cwfa
overnight. There will still be a damaging wind threat and
isolated tornado threat, but large hail should wane as
instability decreases. There is also concerned for some locally
heavy rain if some storms train over the same locations. All of
these hazards are mentioned in the current hwo. Temperatures
will fall into the lower to mid 50s by sunrise Friday as the
frontal boundary works its way east.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Friday night/
Surface and upper level closed low will be occluding on Friday,
slowly pushing east to a position off the lower new england/mid
atlantic coast by Friday night. Showers will be likely early on
in our far east, with a lingering threat for showers across the
remainder of the region until the center of the upper level low
pulls sufficiently away. With mainly cloudy skies and some caa,
temperatures will not warm all that much from the morning lows.

Highs will range from the mid 50s west to near 60 east.

Clouds will linger into Friday night while the threat for
lingering showers tapers off from west to east. It will be cool
with lows dropping into the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Long term /Saturday through Thursday/
Extended period begins with the region in the wake of a departing h5
low. H5 ridge and sfc high will build in for Saturday bringing
cloudy but dry conditions. Highs will range from the upper 40s to
mid 50s. The dry weather will continue into Sunday. Temperatures
will rebound into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Models begin to show their differences by late Sunday as another
system ejects out of texas. The GFS is the weakest and slowest with
the system as it moves to east of the ms river. The ECMWF and cmcnh
are quicker and stronger. Continued with high chance of rain across
the fa, especially in the south. Kept a chance of thunder for the
southern sections also.

The system pulls east Monday night, leaving the region dry for
Tuesday. Another upper low swings out of the central plains on
Wednesday, bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms for
the later half of the week.

Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/
Low pressure and its associated cold front will move east into
the great lakes and ohio valley through the tonight. As it does,
showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase, with the
highest threat for precipitation coming in the 02z to 09z time
frame as a semi cluster/linear feature works its way east across
the terminals. Depending on the location at this given time,
either tempo thunder or vcts has been used. Aviators can
expect MVFR conditions in thunderstorms. Atmosphere will be
conducive to locally heavy rain/ifr visibilities in
thunderstorms, but this will have to be handled in a short term
tempo as the system starts to evolve. Gusty winds this
afternoon will decouple and become more stable by this evening.

On Friday, an upper level closed low will move east across the
ohio valley, with substantial instability having moved east
with the cold front. Some lingering showers east and spotty
showers west are expected with the upper level low. Ceilings
will be firmly in the MVFR lower category, i.E. In the 1000 to
2000 foot range.

For Friday night, upper level low will continue to move to the
mid atlantic/southern new england coast. Shower threat will
taper of but low ceilings will remain in the MVFR/ifr category.

Outlook... MVFR to ifr ceilings likely Friday night into
Saturday. MVFR ceilings and visbilities possible Monday into
Tuesday.

Iln watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Hickman
near term... Hickman
short term... Hickman
long term... Sites
aviation... Hickman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, Airborne Airpark Airport, OH26 mi39 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F55°F65%1003 hPa

Wind History from ILN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4E5E7E4E6E4E6E7E7E8E11
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1 day agoNE8N8NE11NE9NE10NE12N9NE8NE7NE6NE8NE9E10E8E9
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2 days agoE4E4SW10S3S4S4S5SW5CalmSW4SW4W6W5NW5N11N7N9N11N9N9N8N8N4N9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.