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FXUS61 KILN 060231 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1031 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm and moist airmass will remain in place across the region through at least midweek, leading to occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms into Thursday. Drier air will return by the end of the week, although rain chances may persist at times into next weekend as below normal temperatures settle in for next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Arching band of showers and embedded thunderstorms lifting up the Ohio Valley in advance of a well developed short wave will push into northern Kentucky, southeast Indiana, and the Cincinnati metro before daybreak Monday. Otherwise, there will be thickening cloud cover through the overnight. Forecast lows look reasonable ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
A pivoting axis of SHRA/TSRA will overspread the srn 2/3 of the ILN FA during the daytime Monday, with the greatest coverage focusing S of I-70 during the heart of the daytime. The aforementioned front will also pivot back N, allowing for richer LL moisture to expand back N through the daytime, with PWATs once again exceeding 1.5 inches (175% of seasonal norms).
This, combined with slowing/erratic cell motions (owing to a developing W-E oriented LL convergence zone (with stretching along it)), may once again create isolated heavy rain/flooding concerns, especially in a tier or two of counties either side of the OH Rvr. This setup, on top of already-saturated ground for many spots, lends itself to at least some concern for more than a spotty/ISO hydro concern during the afternoon/early evening.
So have added mention in the HWO for the areas of greatest potential for high water/flooding concerns Monday afternoon/evening, even recognizing the threat should still be fairly isolated.

With quite a bit of cloud cover and SHRA/TSRA activity about the region during the day, forecast highs were trimmed several degrees, with highs generally in the lower/mid 70s and sfc DPs nudging back into the mid 60s for most spots. SHRA/TSRA activity should become more ISO in coverage toward the evening/beyond, but may not shut off completely through Monday night as the weakly-convergent axis continues to crawl to the N. An unseasonably warm night is on tap for Monday as lows only dip into the lower/mid 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A persistent southwest flow aloft will allow deep moisture advection through much of the period. Coupled with a parade of disturbances, the moisture advection will lead to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, producing the chance for hazardous weather during parts of the long term.

For Tuesday, thunderstorms will be triggered by a couple of disturbances settling into the Ohio Valley. Ample instability will allow the deep convection, which will be organized by a potent mid level wind flow. Downbursts will be favored by dry air in the mid levels, suggesting a threat for severe thunderstorms. After a relative lull Tuesday night to early Wednesday, more strong to severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night when a more potent disturbance triggers a surface low tracking to the Great Lakes.

For Thursday through Sunday, while stronger disturbances may allow the bulk of severe weather to shift south and east, mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible each day in persistent moisture and instability.

Warm weather continues Tuesday through Thursday with highs ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. Cooler air working in on a northwesterly breeze will result in highs mainly in the 60s for Friday through Sunday.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR will prevail through the early part of the period. There is some potential that low stratus could develop after 06Z, but it seems more likely that patchy fog will cause some visibility restrictions. Have continued to forecast MVFR visibilities at KLUK and KILN.

Showers and possibly some embedded thunderstorms will spread northwards across the region after 10Z. Convective allowing near term guidance suggests that this may push further north and quicker than previously forecast. There will be a band of MVFR ceilings in association with this precipitation. Once the initial showers move through, it becomes highly uncertain what will occur with ceilings. While there will still be lingering low level moisture, which could cause low clouds to persist, it appears that conditions could pop back up to VFR for several hours during the day. Then as showers and storms redevelop, ceilings will drop back down to MVFR, with IFR likely in the Cincinnati area. But forecast confidence beyond about 15Z is fairly low.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are likely Monday night into Tuesday. Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening and then again late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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