Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cynthiana, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:17PM Friday February 22, 2019 11:46 AM EST (16:46 UTC) Moonrise 10:07PMMoonset 9:23AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cynthiana, OH
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location: 39.24, -83.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 221055
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
555 am est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the great lakes today keeping most
of the area dry, confining precipitation south of the ohio river
into tonight. Moisture will overspread the region from the south
Saturday as a warm front advances into the ohio valley. Rain with
embedded thunderstorms will be possible Saturday until a cold
front sweeps through the area Saturday night. Some of the rain
will be heavy. Strong winds will accompany the front and continue
into Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Westerly mid level flow with surface high pressure building
across the great lakes today. A few rain showers may affect the
far southeast early today - otherwise expect dry conditions as
moisture settles a little south.

Expect considerable high level moisture with some mid level
clouds across the south. Temperatures will be slightly above
normal with highs from the lower 40s north of i-70 to the upper
40s along and south of the ohio river.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Mid level flow will back with moisture beginning to spread
north increasing pcpn chances from the southwest. Blended
approach was too quick spreading pcpn north. So have slowed
onset down slightly. Best chance for pcpn will occur after 08z
in the far southwest - where 8h convergence and isentropic lift
develops. Expect late evening lows from the lower 30s north to
the lower 40s south with temperatures steading out and then
slowly rising late.

As strong mid level trof translates from the four corners
region into the plains - strong surface low will further deepen
and eject northeast acrs the central plains Saturday and into
the upper ms vly Saturday night. Ahead of this low - a 55-60kt
low level jet will offer good moisture transport into the ohio
valley with precipitable water values increasing to around 1.5
inches.

Marginal instability to develop into the region with the warm
front lifting into the area. Temperatures to warm to between 10
and 15 degrees above normal with highs Saturday from near 50
north to the lower 60s south.

Have issued a flood watch across the far south where a storm
total of 1 to 2 inches is likely with locally higher amounts
possible through Saturday night. This rain will fall on already
saturated ground with area rivers and streams running high.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Deep low pressure will be moving to the western great lakes Saturday
night, producing a wide range of hazardous weather for the iln area.

Initially, there will be the threat for severe thunderstorms in the
weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment ahead of the low.

Heavy downpours falling on saturated soils will cause localized
flooding, followed by significant rises on tributaries. Later
Saturday night through Sunday as the severe weather threat falls off
behind a cold front, synoptic scale high winds will take over, with
gusts over 50 mph possible in a well mixed regime of rapidly rising
pressure. A high wind watch has already been issued across the north
half of the fa to address that situation. Precip should come to an
abrupt end on Sunday as the cold front departs quickly east, while
winds remain quite strong into Sunday night.

A large area of surface high pressure will allow dry weather Monday
into Tuesday. A mid level disturbance traveling on a westerly flow
aloft may give some light snow and rain Tuesday night and Wednesday.

High pressure and dry air are forecast to return on Thursday.

Temperatures begin the period above normal, with upper 40s expected
Sunday. Multiple rounds of cold advection will then suppress
readings below normal for the rest of the long term, when highs
are forecast to reach the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
Surface high pressure to build across the great lakes today with
pcpn staying south of the ohio river. ExpectVFR conditions
through the day and into the evening with mid and high level
ceilings. Moisture will begin to increase toward Saturday
morning from the southwest and overspread the TAF sites during
the day. Have included a mention of a rain shower after 10z at
kcvg kluk with MVFR conditions developing.

Outlook... MVFR conditions are possible from Saturday through
Sunday. There will be a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday
night. Strong winds are expected on Sunday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... High wind watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
evening for ohz026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065.

Flood watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night
for ohz079-081-082-088.

Ky... Flood watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night
for kyz094>100.

In... High wind watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
evening for inz050.

Synopsis... Ar
near term... Ar
short term... Franks ar
long term... Coniglio
aviation... Ar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, Airborne Airpark Airport, OH26 mi52 minENE 95.00 miFair with Haze35°F28°F76%1031.4 hPa

Wind History from ILN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W8NW7W8NW8NW5NW6N5N5NW4N4N6N5NE3CalmNE4NE5N6NE7NE7NE8E7E8E9
1 day agoSE9SE7SE9S8S7S8S7SW8SW11W13W14
G21
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G28
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W14W8NW8W6W6W8W10W116
2 days agoE5E8NE7E8E7E5E6E8E8E7E8E7SE7E5NE8E11
G20
E12
G18
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G19
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G18
E11E11
G18
SE11SE10E7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.