Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 2:06 AM   Moonset 11:54 AM

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FXUS61 KILN 011334 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 934 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry and warm weather conditions are expected into Thursday before rain and storm chances return Friday and continue periodically into early next week. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist through early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Upper level ridging builds into the Ohio Valley today while a weak surface cold front dips into the counties northwest of I-70 late this afternoon. Although some instability is forecast to form just ahead of the front, moisture and forcing remains weak. In fact, with ridging building in, upper level conditions are not very supportive of rain or thunder chances this afternoon. Forecast highs today are near 80 under partly cloudy skies with southwesterly winds around 10-15 mph.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Weak surface front drops southeast into southern Ohio tonight and stalls out overnight. Expect some mid level clouds with this feature but with a lack of forcing have maintained a dry forecast overnight. Mild lows to dip into the mid 50s and upper 50s.

Mid level ridge builds north Thursday with the sfc front lifting back north. Better forcing and moisture stays west of ILN/s area so have continued a dry forecast. H8 temperatures warm to between 15C and 17C by Thursday afternoon. A very warm day is in store for the region with highs from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south. These readings are 13 to 15 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
H5 ridge axis pretty amplified across the eastern CONUS Thursday night. This will keep low temperatures fairly mild in the low to mid 60s. Still anticipating a dry night based on latest guidance. Ridge axis continues to nudge eastward on Friday as a longwave trough across the western and central CONUS propagates its energy eastward.
A shortwave embedded within this longwave feature travels through the Midwest region and provides a sufficient source of energy to initiate showers and storms in this warm/humid air mass. Ensembles still keep instability fairly marginal during the daytime hours Friday. Additionally, wind shear is not very impressive on Friday either, with 0-3km shear of ~25 kts and 0-6km only around 20 kts.
Not overly concerned about severe threat as of now given these values.

PoPs linger Friday and perhaps into the beginning of Saturday before the shortwave ejects northeastward. Ensembles and global models still all over the place with exact timing on precip ending, but the latter parts of Saturday are trending drier.

Another embedded shortwave is forecast to track through the region once again late Sunday into Monday, which would increase PoPs for our CWA Additional upper level energy will translate eastward across the Midwest Tuesday, keeping the pattern unsettled with additional chances for showers/storms.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Light winds and mainly clear skies has led to valley fog at KLUK. After the valley fog improves this morning VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the day and into this evening. Dry conditions are expected today with some mid level clouds and cumulus clouds expected at times as a weak front settles into the area.

Some valley fog will again be possible tonight at KLUK. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with mainly some mid and high level clouds.

Southerly winds will increase to 10 to 12 kts with gusts around 20 knots in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. MVFR ceilings are possible Friday into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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Wilmington, OH,