Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 7:14AM||Sunset 5:18PM||Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:05 PM EST (20:05 UTC)||Moonrise 1:04PM||Moonset 11:22PM||Illumination 42%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cynthiana, OHHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kiln 141728|
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
1228 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
High pressure centered over the great lakes will move east
today. Low pressure traveling from the southwest will bring
wintry mix of precipitation tonight through Thursday. Dry
weather returns Friday with high pressure centered to the
Near term until 6 pm this evening
A very dry area of surface high pressure currently extends from
the middle mississippi valley eastward into the ohio valley and
southern great lakes. This high is forecast to move northeast
into the great lakes as the day progresses. A very compact area
of mid-level low pressure is currently located near texarkana,
and its circulation shows up very nicely on goes-e water vapor
and visible satellite imagery. This low is expected to move ene
today, before it eventually tracks east across kentucky on
Thursday. Ahead of the mid-level low, surface low pressure is
developing over the deep south, and it will move northeast along
the western edge of the appalachians heading into tomorrow.
Ahead of all of this, the iln CWA is currently in a regime of
southwest flow aloft, with a shield of high clouds spreading
across the area. Winds remain northeasterly at the surface,
however, reinforcing the dry air in the boundary layer (tds are
currently in the upper teens). Very little change to these
conditions is expected through the afternoon, though some mid-
level clouds will begin to move into the area by early evening.
The MAX temp forecast in the mid 30s still appears reasonable,
but if the high clouds remain thick through the afternoon, it is
possible that these values could be a couple degrees too high.
Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Although additional updates and details will be provided for
the overnight period of the forecast later today, some
adjustments were made based on 06z early 12z guidance, which
suggest that slightly warmer air will lead to less snow and a
little more freezing rain. No changes were needed to the winter
weather advisory, but some adjustments to snow and ice totals
Previous discussion >
a deepening closed upper low and surface trough will be pushing
toward the region from the southwest tonight, before moving up
into the iln area Thursday. A large swath of light precip will
develop in isentropic lift under an area of moisture transport
and divergence aloft ahead of the upper low. As the precip
develops and falls into a cold boundary layer featuring a
favorable easterly flow, expect a wintry mix of sleet, freezing
rain and snow to deposit light ice and snow accumulations
starting late this evening and continuing on Thursday. Wet bulb
effect and dynamic cooling will aid in wintry precip processes.
Precip should change to rain by Thursday afternoon as the
boundary layer warms above freezing from south to north. Expect
a few hundredths of an inch glaze and around an inch of snow to
result in hazardous travel conditions. Have issued winter
weather advisory for the light ice and snow accumulations.
Lows tonight just below freezing that will allow the light
wintry accumulations will be followed by Thursday afternoon
highs in the mid 30s to around 40 in slight warm advection,
probably ending the hazardous travel.
Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Mid upper level low over eastern ky to open up and pivot east into
the mid atlantic region by Friday morning. Lingering mixed pcpn to
change to snow prior to ending late Thursday night. Minor additional
snow accumulation of a half inch or less will be possible with the
best chance over the northeast counties. Expect lows from the upper
20s northwest to the lower 30s southeast.
Westerly mid upper level flow develops with surface high pressure
building across the area late in the week. This high will offer dry
weather Friday into Saturday. Expect highs Friday and Saturday from
the upper 30s northwest to the mid upper 40s southeast.
A secondary cold front to push south across the region later
Saturday into Sunday, offering a chance of rain and snow showers.
Qpf is light from this system and with weak forcing model solutions
show a good deal of spread regarding timing. Therefore, have limited
pops to slight chance low chance categories. Temperatures to
continue below normal with Sundays highs from the upper 30s
northwest to the mid 40s southeast.
Northwest flow develops with a large surface high pressure system
building across the ohio valley early next week. This will offer
dry weather with continued below normal temperatures.
Aviation 17z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions are expected through the afternoon and into the
evening, with northeast winds and increasing high and mid level
clouds. Precipitation onset is expected during the evening or
early overnight hours, and there is high confidence in a wintry
mix of precipitation types. The main precipitation type through
the overnight hours will be freezing rain, with a brief period
of sleet possible near the onset of precipitation. Conditions
should remainVFR even after precipitation begins overnight,
with a deterioration to MVFR and then ifr during the early
morning hours. There is high confidence in ifr ceilings, and
moderate confidence in MVFR to possibly briefly ifr
Freezing rain will change to rain during the morning hours, but
MVFR ifr conditions will continue through the day, even as
precipitation eventually becomes very light. Winds will be out
of the east during the morning, but will eventually begin a
clockwise shift during the afternoon.
Outlook... MVFR ifr ceilings and visibilities will continue
through Thursday night. MVFR ceilings may continue into Friday.
MVFR conditions are possible again on Sunday.
Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to noon est
Thursday for ohz026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
Ky... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to noon est
Thursday for kyz089>100.
In... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to noon est
Thursday for inz050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
near term... Hatzos
short term... Coniglio hatzos
long term... Ar
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Wilmington, Airborne Airpark Airport, OH||26 mi||71 min||NE 9||10.00 mi||Fair||30°F||18°F||61%||1035.6 hPa|
Wind History from ILN (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||E||NE||E||NE||NE||NE||N||NE||N||N||N||NE||N||NW||N||NW||NW||NW||N||NW||NW||N||N||N|
|2 days ago||SW||S||SE||SE||Calm||SE||Calm||E||E||SE||Calm||SE||Calm||NE||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||E||E||E||NE||NE||E |
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GOES Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (15,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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