Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cynthiana, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:46PM Thursday May 23, 2019 7:26 PM EDT (23:26 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:17AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cynthiana, OH
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 39.24, -83.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kiln 231946
afdiln
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
346 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
evening as a cold front moves south through the region. The
cold front will then stall near the ohio river by Friday
morning. This front will slowly move back to the northeast as a
warm front Friday afternoon into Friday night. The upcoming
memorial day weekend will be warm and humid with chances for
showers and thunderstorms increasing through the period as
another cold front slowly moves south toward the region.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
A weak disturbance in the zonal mid level flow aloft will
combine with a southward moving cold front to bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the southern cwfa into this
evening. Moderate bulk shear and moderate instability will favor
a few storms to become severe with damaging winds and large
hail the primary severe weather threats. However, decent low
level SRH may allow some storms to rotate, posing an isolated
threat for a tornado.

As the disturbance moves east later this evening, coverage
should wane, and will then only leave a low chance of showers
and thunderstorms with the boundary as it settles south of the
ohio river. By late tonight, weak return flow above the western
part of the boundary may induce a shower storm toward morning.

Skies will clear north, with skies becoming partly cloudy south.

Drier, cooler air will allow temperatures across the north to
drop into the mid 50s to the lower 60s. More humid air will
linger along and south of the ohio river where lows will drop
into the mid and upper 60s.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
Another disturbance may ride a slowly building mid level ridge
into the ohio valley Friday morning. This feature, along with
weak return flow up and over former boundary which should be
laying west to east near the ohio river Friday morning, may keep
a chance of a shower storm going across the southern western
cwfa. As the day wears on, we will lose the weak overrunning
forcing as the boundary begins to move northeast as a warm
front. Chances for showers storms may wane by late in the day
across the west as mixing and weak forcing do not provide a
favorable environment for sustained convection. The boundary
slicing across the region, highs will vary. They will range from
the mid 70s north to the mid 80s southwest.

For Friday night, the warm front will slowly move northeast
through the remainder of our area. Can not rule out a small
chance of a shower storms (10 percent), but this will result in
a dry worded forecast given the small chance. Skies will be
partly cloudy. Lows will range from the mid to upper 60s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Active weather pattern this weekend with a front oscillating through
the area. Chances for thunderstorms will continue Saturday around
the periphery of the mid level ridge. The best chance looks to be
across iln S northern counties closer to the frontal boundary.

Warm temperatures to continue with high temperatures Saturday from
the mid 80s north to the upper 80s south.

A better threat for storms continues to be focused on Sunday as the
northern portions of the mid level ridge flatten and the surface
front sags back south into the ohio valley. Sundays high
temperatures look to range from near 80 north to the mid upper 80s
south.

The mid level ridge builds over the area Monday with the front
lifting back north as a warm front, keeping the threat for
thunderstorms in the forecast. Generally, expect highs of 80 to 85
on Monday.

Model solutions in a little better agreement with the mid level
ridge in place and surface front positioned to our north across the
southern great lakes Tuesday. This should work to limit pcpn chances
but can not rule out isold activity in the warm sector. Expect warm
readings with Tuesdays highs from the lower mid 80s north to near
90 far south.

Although timing differences exist - regarding mid week frontal
passage - models are generally in better agreement with the front
coming thru late Wednesday early Thursday. Moisture and instability
increase Wednesday ahead of this front as mid level ridge shifts
east and the flow backs. Will allow pops to increase to likely
during the day. Temperatures will depend on front pcpn timing - with
highs expected to range from the upper 70s northwest to the upper
80s southeast.

Westerly mid level flow develops with initial frontal passage
followed by a secondary front. This will keep a low pop chance of a
shower or thunderstorm Thursday. Temperatures to turn cooler with
Thursdays highs from the mid 70s northwest to 80 southeast.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
A cold front will move southeast into our region this afternoon
and evening. An embedded disturbance in the mid level flow aloft
will combine with the advancing front and diurnal instability to
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms. Activity is expected
to wane this evening. Vcts CB has been placed at all sites for a
period except kday. Brief MVFR ceilings and ifr visibilities can
be expected with storms.

For the overnight period, although the front will eventually lay
out west to east along the ohio river, weak return flow aloft
will occur up and over the boundary late. This will bring a low
chance of a shower storm west of kcvg kluk late.

On Friday, a mid level ridge will slowly build northward into
the ohio valley. Old frontal boundary will slowly pivot
northeast as a warm front during the day. There could be a low
chance of a shower storm across the western forecast area
through early afternoon near the advancing boundary. Thereafter,
mixing may reduce the weak ascent, allowing convection to wane,
despite peak heating.

Outlook... Thunderstorms possible at times Saturday through
Tuesday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Hickman
near term... Hickman
short term... Hickman
long term... Ar
aviation... Hickman


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, Airborne Airpark Airport, OH26 mi32 minSW 89.00 miLight Rain73°F71°F94%1017 hPa

Wind History from ILN (wind in knots)
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
Last 24hrNW8N4S3S3CalmS3S3S4S7SW6SW8SW8SW9NW8SW7SW5SW12SW16
G21
SW13
G21
SW17
G23
W17
G24
W16
G24
SW13SW8
1 day agoE7E7E8E6E8E8
G15
E7E7E5E6SE8SE8SE8S10S12
G20
S15
G20
SW18
G24
SW14
G22
SW14
G22
SW11SW9SW14W7N7
2 days agoN10N10N9N7N6N5N5NE6NE6NE8E7E8NE7E9
G14
E9
G16
E8
G18
SE12
G17
E5--E11E9E10
G18
E9
G21
E8

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (19,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.