Tuesday, July17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Leipsic, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:27PM Tuesday July 17, 2018 1:34 AM EDT (05:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:01AMMoonset 10:49PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 934 Pm Edt Mon Jul 16 2018
Rest of tonight..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers and tstms, mainly in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 934 Pm Edt Mon Jul 16 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A low pressure system moves across ontario and quebec tonight and Tuesday. An associated strong cold front will cross our area Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. High pressure from the great lakes will follow for Wednesday and remain over our area into Friday night. A series of disturbances will then be across the mid-atlantic for the upcoming weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leipsic, DE
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location: 39.25, -75.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 170133
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
933 pm edt Mon jul 16 2018

Synopsis
A low pressure system moves across ontario and quebec tonight and
Tuesday. An associated strong cold front will cross our area Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. High pressure from the great lakes will
follow for Wednesday and remain over our area into Friday night. A
series of disturbances will then be across the mid-atlantic for the
upcoming weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
The mostly isolated convection has dissipated, as of 01z. The main
forcing was terrain and a sea breeze which was enhanced inland by
convective outflow. The boundary was well defined on radar however
it has dissipated now since is has moved well inland. As a result,
scaled the pops back accordingly for the remainder of this evening.

As we go through the overnight though, an amplifying upper-level
trough moves across the great lakes and the leading edge of the
height falls arrive into our northern and western areas. It appears
though the bulk of the forcing is farther to the west closer to the
cold front. Therefore some uncertainty exists on how much shower or
thunderstorm activity redevelops or arrives across mainly our
western zones late tonight. Some guidance suggest some convection
occurs mostly in portions of eastern pennsylvania to northern new
jersey late tonight while other guidance is dry. For now, carried
slight chance pops for the western areas (low chance pops for the
poconos) late tonight. The southerly flow at the surface diminishes
tonight and therefore patchy fog is possible given lots of low-level
moisture. We are more in the warm sector given a cold front to our
west (plus some more mid to high level clouds late), and therefore
any fog may be rather light limited and thus did not add to the
forecast at this time.

It will be a warm and rather muggy night ahead of a cold front (dew
points mostly in the 70s). The hourly temperature, dew point and
wind grids were adjusted based on the latest observations, then the
lamp guidance was also blended in to help assist. The cloud cover
has mostly dissipated outside of some cirrus. Some increase in the
clouds is anticipated through the night though especially across the
western areas as cloud debris arrives.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
The day may start with a few showers or thunderstorms across the
western areas, however an active afternoon is expected as an
amplifying upper-level trough approaches from the west and a surface
cold front arrives. The expectation of more clouds and eventually
widespread convection will result in a cooler day but still rather
humid. Did slow down the eastward increase in pops though through
about early afternoon.

The SPC maintained the i-95 corridor on westward in a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon. The guidance has
pwats of 2-2.25 inches, therefore quite a bit of moisture is
available. Given enough instability and where updrafts are able to
be more robust, frequent cloud to cloud lightning is a good
possibility. The low and mid level flow shear however ahead of the
cold front is somewhat limited, with this greatest to our north.

There should be some multicells though ahead of the front, and if
these can organize enough and generate a cold pool then local strong
surface wind gusts can occur. There is the potential for at least
some isolated severe thunderstorms, with locally damaging winds
(water loaded downdrafts) the main threat. The mid level flow is
more perpendicular to the cold front, therefore convection should be
on the move. Given the high pwats though, downpours could result in
localized flooding.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
Tuesday night... The strong cold front will be moving offshore and
the showers and thunderstorms associated with it will be ending
across the region. Cooler and drier air will arrive across the nw
areas, but it may take until Wednesday to finally arrive across
delmarva and SRN nj. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s low
60s N W and mid upper 60s S e. Winds will become NW overnight at 5
to 10 mph.

Wednesday thru Friday... High pressure will be across the great
lakes Wednesday and it will build across the middle atlantic
Thursday before moving offshore Friday. The high will bring fair
weather along with seasonable temperatures. Highs will be in the
low mid 80s in most areas, but the overnight lows will be cool for
july with 50s across the north west and low mid 60s for DELMARVA and
srn nj. These lows will be around 5 degrees below normal.

Next weekend Monday... Unsettled with an unusually strong upper
trough moving towards the region. A deep south to southwest flow
aloft will become established and abundant moisture from the
south will arrive across the region. Showers and thunderstorms
will probably be around Sat thru mon, so we have kept the high
chance pops for the weekend. The latest nmb has some likely pops
for Sunday, so we went along an put those in the grids attm.

Locally heavy rains are possible, but we'll get more details
later this week before getting any more specific.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...VFR overall. An isolated shower or thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out mainly west of phl. Some MVFR visibilities due
to light fog is possible at some terminals overnight, however this
is of lower confidence. South to southwest winds less than 10 knots,
or even becoming locally light and variable to calm.

Tuesday... Local MVFR visibilities early due to light fog, otherwise
vfr for awhile. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
from west to east and become more widespread mainly in the afternoon
ahead of a cold front. There will be ceiling and especially
visibility restrictions (MVFR ifr) with the showers and
thunderstorms, and locally brief gusty winds may accompany some
stronger thunderstorms. South to southwest winds increasing to
around 10 knots, becoming west-northwest late in the afternoon at
rdg and abe and closer to the early evening farther east.

Outlook...

Tuesday night... Showers and thunderstorms ending from west to
east, withVFR returning. Patchy fog possible across delmarva
and southern new jersey.

Wednesday through Friday...VFR expected.

Friday night and Saturday... MostlyVFR. A few showers and
thunderstorms possible.

Marine
Tonight... Sub SCA conditions expected. Mainly SW winds 15 to 20 kt.

Seas 3 to 4 ft.

Tuesday... No headlines south of little egg inlet with SW gusts up to
20 kt and seas up to 4 feet. North of little egg, gusts up to 25 kt
and seas up to 5 feet are expected. A SCA has been issued north
of little egg between 12z Tue through 04z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night... SCA diminishing and showers tstms ending from W to
e.

Wednesday thru Friday... Sub-sca with fair weather.

Friday night thru Saturday... Scattered showers and tstms.

Sca psbl.

Rip currents...

for Tuesday, opted to go with another moderate risk of rip
currents for both the new jersey and delaware beaches. This is
due to a lingering underlying southeasterly long period swell
(although it looks weaker than previous days), the seas building
some and a 10-25 mph south-southwest wind along the coast again
especially late morning through the afternoon.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am Tuesday to midnight edt Tuesday
night for anz450-451.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Gorse
short term... Gorse kruzdlo
long term... O'hara
aviation... Gorse o'hara
marine... Gorse kruzdlo o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 11 mi124 min S 4.1 79°F 1014 hPa78°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 23 mi34 min 77°F 83°F1012.7 hPa (-0.3)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 24 mi34 min SSW 15 G 16 77°F 1014.6 hPa (+0.0)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 25 mi34 min S 2.9 G 5.1 80°F 78°F1013.4 hPa (-0.3)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 29 mi34 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 84°F1013.5 hPa (-0.3)
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 30 mi34 min S 6 G 11 76°F 77°F1013.8 hPa (+0.0)
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 36 mi34 min 78°F 74°F1014.2 hPa (+0.0)
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 39 mi34 min 80°F 82°F1013 hPa (-0.3)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 45 mi34 min S 4.1 G 8 81°F 83°F1013.5 hPa (+0.0)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 49 mi34 min 82°F 81°F1012.6 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Ship John Shoal, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dover Air Force Base, DE8 mi98 minS 910.00 miFair78°F72°F83%1014.2 hPa
Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ19 mi40 minVar 410.00 miFair77°F72°F85%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from DOV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S4S5S5S5S6S7SW7CalmSW4E7E5SE7E6SE7SE5S14S15S14S9S9S8S9S9
1 day agoS9S8S8SW8S7S7SW8SW7SW11SW7SW8N10N7CalmS4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4
2 days agoS5S4SW5S4S5SW4SW6W7W5SW5SW7S10S13S8SW10W11W10SW9S8S8S8S9S10S11

Tide / Current Tables for Leipsic River entrance, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Leipsic River entrance
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Tue -- 01:42 AM EDT     6.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:42 AM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:17 PM EDT     5.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:56 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.56.76.96.45.33.82.10.6-0.3-0.40.41.93.65.25.95.85.242.61.30.300.61.9

Tide / Current Tables for Leipsic, Leipsic River, Delaware Bay, Delaware
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Leipsic
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:05 AM EDT     4.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:33 AM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:41 PM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:47 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.12.13.24.14.44.23.62.51.40.4-0.2-0.20.31.12.13.13.63.73.42.71.70.80.20

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.