Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dundalk, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:23PM Thursday October 18, 2018 10:10 PM EDT (02:10 UTC) Moonrise 2:37PMMoonset 12:09AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 734 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday afternoon through late Friday night...
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 734 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build overhead through tonight before moving offshore Friday. A cold front will cross the waters Saturday with high pressure returning early next week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for portions of the waters Saturday through Sunday. Gale conditions are possible Saturday night into early Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dundalk, MD
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location: 39.25, -76.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 190140
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
940 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will shift overhead tonight, then migrate off the
mid-atlantic coast on Friday. Strengthening low pressure over
quebec will usher a cold front through our region Saturday and
Saturday night. Canadian high pressure will return Sunday and
Sunday night, then move offshore on Monday. Another cold front
will sweep through the area Tuesday into Wednesday, with high
pressure building over the region in its wake.

Near term tonight
Canadian high pressure centered over the ohio valley will
build overhead the remainder of the night. Winds have gone
light and variable this evening, if not calm, and skies are
crystal clear. This has allowed temperatures to slide down in to
the upper 30s to middle 40s across much of the area, with the
city centers holding in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. Given
this prime setup for radiational cooling, a frost advisory
remains in effect for areas along and east of the blue ridge,
with a freeze warning in effect for a majority of locations west
of there. Frost will be less likely in the downtown areas of
washington and baltimore, as well as over the open ridge tops
and near the bay. Come daybreak, lows will range from the low-
mid 30s most everywhere, with lower 40s near the city centers.

Current forecast is in good condition with no major changes
needed at this time.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
High pressure will move offshore Friday and a return southerly
flow will develop. The southerly flow will allow for a milder
afternoon with MAX temps in the lower to middle 60s for most
areas. High and mid-level clouds will increase late in the day
ahead of the next of an approaching upper-level disturbance in
the westerly flow aloft.

The upper-level disturbance will pass through Friday night,
likely triggering showers across the area. Precipitation amounts
should be light since most of the forcing will be from the mid-
levels, and there is little forcing in the lower levels due to a
strong westerly component to the low-level flow.

The disturbance will move off to the east Saturday, but a potent
cold front will approach Saturday before passing through late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. A couple showers are
possible with the frontal passage. Would not be surprised to
see an isolated thunderstorm later Saturday afternoon and
evening, but did not reflect this in the forecast at this time.

This is because of a potent upper-level disturbance that will be
swinging through with the cold frontal passage. Our area will
be within left exit region of the mid-level jet, and height
falls will be potent. Strong cold advection will cause blustery
and chilly conditions overnight Saturday. Snow showers are
likely along and west of the allegheny front as colder air
filters in, and the first snowfall accumulation of the season is
possible across these areas. Low Saturday night will be in the
40s for most locations, but upper 20s to lower 30s along the
ridge tops.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Cool and dry conditions will be the theme across the area late this
weekend through the middle of next week.

An upper level trough will be located overhead Sunday morning, then
progress off to the east throughout the day. Subsidence in the wake
of the trough, coupled with a weakening low-level wind field will
cause any leftover upslope rain or snow showers along the allegheny
front to dissipate by midday. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are
forecast across the area. With the core of the cold air located
overhead, temperatures will be well below normal. High temperatures
will range from the low 40s in the mountains, to the low to mid 50s
east of the blue ridge.

High pressure will crest overhead Sunday night, leading to light
winds and cool overnight temperatures. Lows should dip below 40
degrees at most locations, with some 20s even possible in the higher
elevation valleys to the west of the blue ridge. High pressure will
move to our east on Monday, as a shortwave trough tracks southeast
from the canadian prairies toward the great lakes. Weak warm
advection in advance of this trough will allow temperatures to
moderate slightly for Monday, and then again on Tuesday. However,
temperatures will still be below normal with highs in the mid-upper
50s on Monday, and low 60s on Tuesday. Another strong area of high
pressure will build over the great lakes on Wednesday, helping to
prolong our stretch of dry weather.

Aviation 01z Friday through Tuesday
High pressure building over the region will promote light winds,
clear skies, andVFR flying conditions tonight and into Friday. A
few showers are likely Friday night into Saturday.VFR conditions
are still most likely during this time, but brief MVFR conditions
cannot be ruled out. Gusty west to northwest winds are expected
behind a cold front late Saturday or Saturday night, depending on
the timing of the frontal passage. A few showers are possible
during this time as well.

Vfr conditions are expected at the terminals Sunday through
Wednesday. No precipitation is expected during the Sunday through
Wednesday time period, but gusty northwesterly winds will be
possible during the day on Sunday.

Marine
Sub SCA conditions have won out this evening as winds abated
given high pressure building over the waters. This high will
shift offshore Friday, bringing a southerly component to the
wind field. The flow will strengthen ahead of a cold front late
Friday into Saturday. An SCA is in effect for the bay and lower
tidal potomac river Friday afternoon and Friday night. SCA wind
gusts are possible across the upper and middle tidal potomac
during this time, but confidence is not high enough for an
advisory during this time.

An SCA will likely be needed for Saturday through Saturday night
both ahead of and behind the front. The strongest winds will be
behind the front Saturday night and a gale warning may be needed
for portions of the waters during this time. A gale warning may
also be needed Sunday ahead of building high pressure.

Sca levels winds appear possible on Monday as high pressure moves
offshore.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt Friday for dcz001.

Md... Freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am edt Friday for mdz501-502.

Frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt Friday for mdz003>006-011-
013-014-016>018-503>508.

Va... Freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am edt Friday for vaz025>031-503-
504.

Frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt Friday for vaz036>040-
050>057-501-502-505>508.

Wv... Freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am edt Friday for wvz050>053-055-
501>506.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm Friday to 6 am edt Saturday for
anz530>534-537>543.

Synopsis... Bjl bkf
near term... Bjl bkf
short term... Bjl
long term... Kjp
aviation... Bjl bkf kjp
marine... Bjl bkf kjp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 4 mi41 min WSW 6 G 6 52°F 1028.9 hPa
FSNM2 4 mi41 min W 6 G 6 54°F 1028.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 6 mi41 min W 1.9 G 4.1 51°F 70°F1028.6 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 12 mi41 min NW 7 G 8 55°F 62°F1029.2 hPa
CPVM2 18 mi41 min 53°F 37°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 18 mi41 min 50°F 1028.7 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 19 mi35 min NW 3.9 G 3.9 54°F 1029.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi71 min NW 5.1 G 6 55°F 65°F1030 hPa (+0.0)32°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 35 mi101 min Calm 42°F 1030 hPa40°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi41 min Calm G 1.9 52°F 63°F1029.5 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 40 mi41 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 42°F 62°F1029 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi41 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 56°F 1029.6 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD7 mi81 minN 010.00 miClear46°F39°F76%1029.5 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD8 mi77 minno data mi52°F34°F50%1028.9 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD11 mi77 minN 010.00 miFair43°F37°F82%1029 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD19 mi89 minN 010.00 miFair39°F37°F93%1030.1 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD19 mi77 minN 010.00 miFair51°F39°F64%1029.5 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD20 mi91 minNW 310.00 miFair52°F35°F54%1029.1 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD22 mi2.4 hrsN 07.00 miFair41°F37°F87%1029.5 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW4NW6NW6NW8W7
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1 day agoCalmS3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW15
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Tide / Current Tables for Fort Carroll, Maryland
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Fort Carroll
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:31 AM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:57 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:49 PM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:53 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.41.61.61.51.31.110.80.70.60.70.811.11.21.110.80.70.60.50.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:51 AM EDT     0.72 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:04 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:29 AM EDT     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:59 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:52 PM EDT     0.57 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:57 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT     -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:27 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.60.40-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.300.30.50.60.50.3-0-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.