Friday, August18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Dundalk, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 7:57PM Friday August 18, 2017 6:09 PM EDT (22:09 UTC) Moonrise 1:50AMMoonset 4:36PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 432 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am edt Saturday...
.severe Thunderstorm watch 455 in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until early morning. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 432 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold will cross the waters tonight. A pressure trough will remain nearby for Saturday and Sunday while high pressure positions itself just to our north and west. The high will move offshore early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday night and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dundalk, MD
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location: 39.25, -76.47     debug

Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 181904
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
304 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

A cold front will cross the region tonight. Surface high
pressure will build in Saturday, but an upper level disturbance
will cross the region Saturday night. A warm front will advance
back north across the region early next week, followed by a
strong cold front in the middle of the week.

Near term through tonight
Latest surface analysis depicts the cold front entering western
west virginia and western pennsylvania, heading southeast.

Aloft, a broad trough covers the eastern and central us, with
several embedded shortwaves. One of these is located over west
virginia at present and is heading east.

Ahead of these sources of lift, we have a truly soupy air mass,
with dew points in the mid 70s to around 80 widespread, and air
temperatures near to just above 90. This is resulting in capes
estimated to be well in excess of 2000 j kg. The associated
shortwave is helping increase shear to around 30 knots, with
areas near the mason-dixon expected to reach 35 knots.

Suffice it to say, we have a pretty good setup (as august goes)
for severe weather, and with the high pw's, flash flooding. Best
flash flood threat will depend on the front slowing and cells
starting to train later on, but any storm can produce some
extremely heavy rainfall rates given the high CAPE and high
available moisture. Watches for severe and flash flooding
extend west to near the blue ridge, but an isolated instance
early west of there is not impossible. However, best odds are
near the i-95 corridor on east to the bay as storms intensify
and tap into the excessive CAPE and moisture. Timing looks
primed with late aft early evening for most of the region, and
while CAPE should diminish this evening, cells may continue to
regenerate well into the evening as the front slows, which is
why the flash flood watch extends to 2 am.

Besides all of that, heat remains a concern until the storms
reach the area, and the heat advisory remains in effect. It may
be cancelled early as the storms cool the region down by early

Later tonight, front will slowly but surely clear us out storm-
wise, but moisture may be slow to dwindle, with patchy fog
possible. Lows will be a bit cooler than last night, with 60s
and low 70s expected.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
Other than patchy fog, Saturday should start out tranquil with
some sun. Humidity will be lower, though temperatures will only
be a few degrees less than today. However, potent upper level
trough will move into the region late in the day and at night,
and it appears enough moisture will remain to result in isolated
showers and t-storms late in the day into the evening.

High pressure dominates Sunday for the most part, with
temperatures expected to drop a bit further once again - the
most comfortable day of the weekend. However, warm front will
start poking back north late in the day and at night, and that
may result in a return risk of showers in central va.

Long term Monday through Friday
High pressure will move offshore Monday and settle into
Tuesday, allowing for southerly flow to settle over our area.

Moisture advection could enhance diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday afternoon evening. An upper
trough and strong cold front will approach from the northwest on
Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing additional chance of
showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. The front should move
across on Wednesday night with a high pressure returning
Thursday into Friday.

High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be in the mid
to upper 80s in northern maryland... To low 90s in central
virginia at times... And 70s at higher elevations... Highs in
the 70s and 80s Thursday and Friday.

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
Primary TAF concern next few hours will be potential for gusty
thunderstorms with brief ifr CIGS and vis moving across the
terminals. Tried to peg timing as best as possible in tafs but
still some uncertainty exists.

Overnight, more rural spots, including mrb and cho, could see
patchy fog development. Otherwise, expectingVFR Saturday,
though an isolated shower or t-storm is possible late. Mainly
vfr again Sunday with high pressure dominant.

Vfr conditions expected Monday into Wednesday, with periods of
sub-vfr conditions mainly Monday and Tuesday afternoon evening
and Wednesday due to possible showers and thunderstorms.

Sca in effect through the evening for southerly channeling and
approaching t-storms. Special marine warnings are likely over
the next several hours as strong storms move in with approaching
cold front. Then, expect northerly channeling overnight, so sca
continues for main channel until early morning. For balance of
Saturday, should be sub sca, but an isolated gusty t-storm is
possible late in the day as an upper trough moves on through.

Returning to tranquil conditions Sunday.

Mainly dry conditions expected Monday into Wednesday, with
periods of showers and thunderstorms possibly developing Monday
and Tuesday afternoon evening and Wednesday. Wind gusts are
expected to stay below the small craft advisory threshold.

Wet antecedant conditions combined with very high pw's and
potential for training storms have prompted us to issue a flash
flood watch for eastern half to two thirds of cwa. Biggest risk
is maryland near bay and the urban centers. Storms may continue
to train well into the evening, so have watch going until 2am.

Tides coastal flooding
Southerly flow will continue to cause elevated water levels
through tonight. Cfa for st. Mary's through tonight, and may
need to add other sensitive sites of annapolis and dc southwest
waterfront for next cycle tonight. Will need to watch the less
sensitve sites as well as baltimore also touched in the last
high tide cycle.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Flash flood watch until 2 am edt Saturday for dcz001.

Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for dcz001.

Md... Flash flood watch until 2 am edt Saturday for mdz004>006-011-

Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for mdz011-013-014-

Coastal flood advisory until 3 am edt Saturday for mdz017.

Va... Flash flood watch until 2 am edt Saturday for vaz039-040-

Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for vaz052>057.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 9 am edt Saturday for anz531>534-

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Saturday for anz530-535-

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Imr
aviation... Imr rcm
marine... Imr rcm
hydrology... Rcm
tides coastal flooding... Rcm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 4 mi52 min SSE 14 G 16 85°F 1006.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 6 mi52 min N 15 G 24
44043 - Patapsco, MD 8 mi40 min S 14 G 16 84°F 1007.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 12 mi52 min SSE 4.1 G 7 85°F 82°F1007.7 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 18 mi52 min 88°F 1006.6 hPa
CPVM2 18 mi52 min 85°F 82°F
44063 - Annapolis 20 mi40 min S 18 G 21 84°F 1007.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi70 min S 20 G 22 83°F 81°F
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 29 mi40 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 85°F 1008.3 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi52 min SSW 11 G 16 89°F 82°F1006.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 40 mi58 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 87°F 83°F1008.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi40 min S 16 G 18 84°F 1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD7 mi85 minSSE 147.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F80°F89%1007.1 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD8 mi76 minno data mi88°F79°F75%1005.7 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD11 mi76 minSSW 9 G 1610.00 miThunderstorm89°F75°F63%1006 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD19 mi82 minS 710.00 mi86°F75°F70%1007.4 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD19 mi76 minS 17 G 259.00 miA Few Clouds88°F82°F83%1006.8 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD20 mi85 minS 13 G 177.00 miFair with Haze90°F78°F71%1007.4 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD22 mi2.2 hrsS 810.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F79°F74%1007.7 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNE4NE4E3SE4--E6SE4SE8S10SE11
2 days agoNE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmSE7SE5SE6SE6SE5E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Carroll, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Fort Carroll
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Fri -- 02:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:10 AM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:44 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:15 PM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:30 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Fri -- 02:26 AM EDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:16 AM EDT     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:17 PM EDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:54 PM EDT     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.