Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dundalk, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:23PM Sunday May 26, 2019 4:55 AM EDT (08:55 UTC) Moonrise 12:55AMMoonset 11:39AM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 436 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Rest of the overnight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 436 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak cold front will approach the waters today, stalling nearby Monday. The front will then lift back north by Tuesday as high pressure off the southeastern united states coast regains control through the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dundalk, MD
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location: 39.25, -76.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 260809
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
409 am edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front will approach from the north today, stalling
across the region on Monday before lifting northward again
Tuesday. Bermuda high pressure sets up toward the middle
portion of the week, resulting in hot and humid conditions over
much of the eastern united states.

Near term through Monday
Latest analysis places the warm front stuck over the region, but
it should rapidly proceed northeastward once the Sun comes up,
so expect the entire forecast area to be deep into the warm
sector. Patchy fog remains a concern in areas which saw rain
last night, but it should dissipate fairly quickly after the sun
rises. The bulk of the morning and midday, therefore, should see
partly sunny skies and rapidly rising temperatures as warm
advection aloft allows surface readings to approach 90. With the
moist southerly flow, dew points will also approach 70. This
combination should help result in significant CAPE by afternoon,
perhaps 2000+ j kg. Shear is decent, but most of it is more
elevated than in recent days, with low-level shear pretty modest
by comparison, generally around 20 knots 0-3km. This is due to
the surface flow becoming more westerly. Heights will be falling
this afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave, but the core
will linger further west, perhaps not catching up with the best
instability. Thus, expect decent storm coverage overall, with
damaging winds and hail being the main threat, with a lesser
tornado threat than what we've seen in recent days. The westerly
flow gives me pause regarding coverage, as historically its not
favorable due to the downslope component, so kept pops
relatively low with most places just reaching the likely range.

Tonight, weak boundary slips back south, likely helped along by
cooling from the convection itself. After a relative min after
sunset, the approaching mid-level trough may cause a
reinvigoration of storms, or at least, rain, as we head later
into the night, and this could in fact linger into the morning
on memorial day. After the shortwave passes, coverage should
diminish, and with lingering clouds expected much of the day,
temperatures will be cooler (80s) and afternoon convection
should be limited.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
The weak boundary starts heading back north Monday night and
progresses back north of most of the region on Tuesday. Before
that happens, however, another shortwave crosses the region,
with a round of late night early morning showers and t-storms
possible. Time of day suggests there won't be a lot of severe
threat with this round, but will need to watch heavy rain
potential. After the front moves north, temps should rise back
close to 90 later in the day Tuesday, with plenty of humidity.

This will result in another surge in instability, with cape
again possibly exceeding 2000 j kg. This could also be
accompanied by significant shear, particularly low level shear,
with 0-3km readings possibly reaching 40 knots. This means we
will have yet another day with severe weather potential, and
unlike today, the tornado threat will be back, along with
damaging winds and hail. As the Sun sets, CAPE should rapidly
decline, so we should turn out dry late Tuesday night, but
remain muggy and mild.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
The middle and end of next week will feature above normal
temperatures and multiple opportunities for scattered
showers thunderstorms.

For Wednesday, the main weather feature will be a large upper
level ridge over the southeastern us, with our highest heights
of the period overhead. This will lead to mainly dry and hot
conditions, with highs likely reaching the 90s pretty much area-
wide.

A frontal system will approach the region Thursday Thursday
night, leading to another increased chance of
showers thunderstorms. Temperatures will still be very warm to
hot out ahead of the front, and will have upper 80s to low 90s
in the forecast.

The front will push south eastward Friday as the upper ridge
over the southeastern us flattens, and high pressure builds
towards the region. However, recent trends in guidance indicate
that the front may not quite clear the area Friday and Saturday,
leading to continued opportunities for scattered
showers thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler, but still
likely remain above normal, with highs in the low 80s.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
GenerallyVFR through Tuesday night. Patchy fog mist and perhaps
some intervals of low clouds are possible early each morning
especially where rain has fallen the previous day, but odds look
low. Best chances are at the rural terminals. Otherwise,
t-storms are the biggest concern, with odds highest this
afternoon and again on Tuesday.

PrimarilyVFR expected Wednesday and Thursday, although some
brief reductions in showers storms are possible late Thursday
with frontal system approaching the area.

Marine
Southerly channeling should diminish this morning, with sca
conditions ending over all waters. Light winds likely to prevail
through the following few days as a weak front meanders across
the region. Main concern will be potential special marine
warnings due to thunderstorms with highest odds today and again
on Tuesday.

Sca conditions become possible out of the southwest Wednesday
and Thursday as winds increase out ahead of an approaching
front.

Tides coastal flooding
Anomalies are spiking as southerly flow has brought more water
northward up the bay. Further changes are uncertain as winds are
expected to shift to a more westerly direction later today, but
right now it appears that anomalies are high enough to cause
minor flooding around high tide later today at least across
baltimore and anne arundel counties in md and in dc. Will need
to watch water levels closely over the next few hours in case
further forecast adjustments and advisories are necessary.

Anomalies should decline as winds become more northerly tonight
behind a cold front.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood advisory from noon today to 4 pm edt this
afternoon for dcz001.

Md... Coastal flood advisory from 8 am this morning to 4 pm edt this
afternoon for mdz011.

Coastal flood advisory from 7 am this morning to 5 pm edt this
afternoon for mdz014.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
anz533-537-541.

Small craft advisory until noon edt today for anz534-543.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Mm
aviation... Mm rcm
marine... Mm rcm
tides coastal flooding... Rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 4 mi56 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 1015.2 hPa (-1.7)
FSNM2 4 mi62 min SSW 1.9 G 6 68°F 1015.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 6 mi56 min W 1.9 G 1.9 68°F 71°F1014.8 hPa (-1.8)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 12 mi62 min S 6 G 9.9 69°F 70°F1015.4 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 18 mi56 min 69°F 1014.9 hPa (-1.9)
CPVM2 18 mi56 min 69°F 69°F
44063 - Annapolis 20 mi44 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 68°F 69°F1015.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi56 min S 6 G 6 68°F 68°F1016.3 hPa (-2.0)68°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi56 min SW 1 G 1.9 70°F 73°F1015.8 hPa (-0.7)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 40 mi62 min W 1.9 G 2.9 67°F 70°F1015.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi92 min W 1.9 G 3.9 70°F 1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD7 mi74 minS 410.00 miFair68°F68°F100%1015.6 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD8 mi62 minno data mi69°F64°F84%1015.5 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD11 mi62 minSSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds67°F64°F91%1015 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD19 mi62 minN 010.00 mi71°F64°F81%1015.5 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD19 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair61°F60°F100%1016.6 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD20 mi76 minSSW 310.00 miFair68°F68°F100%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E7SE8SE5SE7SE6SE6SE7E8SE9SE8SE10SE10S9S7S7
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1 day agoW5NW9NW14
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NW7NW7N3NW5CalmCalmN3NE4E4NE5
2 days agoS6S6S9S8S7SE7SE7SE7SE7SE7CalmS7S4--S5S6SW3CalmS3S3CalmSW9
G17
CalmNW5

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Carroll, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:04 AM EDT     0.60 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:47 AM EDT     0.63 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:20 PM EDT     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.30.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.40.60.60.50.3-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.30.10.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.