Friday, January18, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Dundalk, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:11PM Friday January 18, 2019 4:39 PM EST (21:39 UTC) Moonrise 2:43PMMoonset 4:37AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 338 Pm Est Fri Jan 18 2019
Rest of this afternoon..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain and sleet.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of rain or freezing rain or snow through the night.
ANZ500 338 Pm Est Fri Jan 18 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move across the area tonight. A strong low pressure system will affect the area over the weekend. High pressure will slowly build back in early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Saturday and a gale warning may be needed Sunday and Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dundalk, MD
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location: 39.25, -76.47     debug

Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 182014
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
314 pm est Fri jan 18 2019

High pressure will briefly build across the region tonight. A
strong storms system will move northeastward across the region
Saturday and Saturday night. Arctic high pressure will gradually
build across the region Sunday through Tuesday. A slow moving
cold front will slide into the region Wednesday, with another
strong storm system possibly moving across the region late in
the week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Latest analysis depicts a weak cold front crossing the region
from the northwest. Weak high pressure is building eastward
behind it. A strengthening storm system is located over the
southern plains, heading northeast.

For tonight, the weak front will gradually clear out some of the
low level moisture and clouds. Winds will remain fairly light,
however. After having reached above freezing in most areas
today, temps will drop back down near or below freezing tonight,
so re-freeze will be an issue.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night
Potent storm system moving northeast across the region is the
focus of Saturday into early Sunday. The latest guidance has
sped it up somewhat, with precip expected to arrive a bit
earlier and depart a bit earlier. With colder, drier air
draining slowly into the region tonight, temperatures will stay
colder on Saturday as clouds overspread the region early. Warm
advection precip arrives from southwest to northeast starting
earlier in the morning, but with a potent warm nose aloft, don't
expect a lot of snow anywhere. Biggest question is just how
heavy precip can get before it switches to sleet and freezing
rain. For most places it should be very quickly, but across
northern md it could stay snow long enough for several inches of
snow. Will need to watch this closely. Otherwise, the big
question is how long temps will get stuck near or just below
freezing on Saturday afternoon night. Have sided with cold nam,
given its generally superior track record in this area, and
prolong icing across areas north and west of i-95 through most
of the night. This may well result in widesprad warning level
icing, so have issued winter storm warning for these areas.

Further south and east, warm air should slowly return from the
southeast, and only advisories are in effect. We also are
uncertain just where that icing line starts, as it looks very
close to the us 29 i-95 corridor from charlottesville to dc.

Given the uncertainty, have held off on going into that area
with advisories even though our forecast does technically
contain small ice accumulations. Confidence for those (50%) is
not enough for the advisory yet (80%). That may change by
tomorrow, so definitely watch for updates this evening or early

Precip appears likely to rapidly move out late Saturday
night early Sunday, but cold air may wrap back in as it ends,
allowing places which are icing to switch back to snow, or
places that are rain to switch back to ice, but any changeover
back looks very brief before precip cuts off. Then, the bulk of
Sunday is simply windy and increasingly cold, with temps likely
to fall through the day, with most of the day spent below
freezing. There will be issues with freezing water, though some
uncertainty exists regarding potential flash freeze since winds
may dry surfaces out somewhat. Either way, however, the suddenly
severe cold plus whatever moisture lingers will spell issues.

High pressure builds closer Sunday night with some truly bitter
cold air over the region. Temps likely drop into the single
digits to low teens area-wide. With the wind, the wind chills
will end up below zero.

Long term Monday through Friday
Changeable weather expected through next week with very cold
conditions giving way to moderating temperatures with increasing

Very cold and blustery conditions are expected through the day
Monday as strong high pressure builds in behind the departing
low pressure system. We'll likely be looking at highs holding in
the teens 20s across the area during the day, with morning wind
chills sub-zero.

Strong 1030-1040mb high pressure will then build overhead
Monday night which will lead to near ideal radiational cooling
conditions. Lows likely bottom out in the single digits and
teens for many locations, with some sub-zero air temperatures

The air mass will however bounce in and out quite quickly, with
south southwest flow developing during the day Tuesday. Dry
conditions still expected with highs rebounding in the 30s.

The next system will then rapidly be on our doorstep Tuesday
night with the initial wave and surface low likely passing to
our northwest. This would place our region in the warm sector,
with rain being the favored precipitation type on Wednesday.

However as with any departing arctic air mass, there may be
enough cold air to produce some freezing rain Tuesday night.

Temperatures will then moderate further Wednesday.

The most uncertainty then lies Wednesday night and Thursday as
most model ensemble guidance depicts secondary wave of low
pressure riding along the frontal boundary near the region,
although details to be determined.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Aside from some leftover low clouds at mtn and mrb and cho,VFR
condtions have taken over for much of the region, as clouds
have finally started to burn off across the region. Low clouds
will gradually burn off in those areas that still have them over
the next few hours. Light winds are also expected across the

Sub-vfr conditions appear likely later Saturday night into
early Sunday morning as a storm system approaches the area then
tracks nearly overhead. Expect low cigs, as well as visibility
restrictions with by the late Saturday morning at mrb, gradually
moving east into the afternoon. Restrictions likely continue
overnight Saturday before gradual improvement into Sunday

On Sunday, expect gusty northwest winds across the region,
perhaps approaching 40 knots.

Vfr expected for Monday and Tuesday with strong high pressure
building in. Main aviation weather concern Monday will be gusty
northwest winds. Potential for sub-vfr conditions then increases
Tuesday night and Wednesday with next area of low pressure.

High pressure dominates tonight, with light winds. Storm system
moving in on Saturday with southerly flow will bring SCA gusts
to the southern central bay, where SCA now in effect. These
linger into the night before the system pulls out. Then strong
gusty northwest winds develop in the wake of the storm Sunday,
with gales likely.

Gale conditions likely Monday with strong northwest winds.

Winds then decrease into Tuesday, with SCA conditions possible
Monday night, and sub-sca conditions likely Tuesday. Sca
conditions then return Tuesday night and Wednesday with
increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the next low pressure

Tides coastal flooding
An onshore flow will increase later tonight through Saturday
night as low pressure passes through the area. Minor tidal
flooding for sensitive areas near high tide is possible during
this time. A strong offshore flow will develop later Sunday and
Monday. Tidal blowout conditions are possible during this time.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... Winter storm warning from 10 am Saturday to 6 am est Sunday
for mdz003-004-501-502.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am Saturday to midnight est
Saturday night for mdz503.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am to 9 pm est Saturday for

Winter weather advisory from 1 pm Saturday to midnight est
Saturday night for mdz505-507.

Winter storm warning from 1 pm Saturday to 6 am est Sunday for

Winter weather advisory from 1 pm to 9 pm est Saturday for

Va... Winter weather advisory from 7 am to 9 pm est Saturday for

Winter storm warning from 10 am Saturday to 6 am est Sunday
for vaz028-031.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am Saturday to midnight est
Saturday night for vaz501-505.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am to 9 pm est Saturday for

Winter weather advisory from 7 am Saturday to midnight est
Saturday night for vaz026-027-029-030-040-507.

Wv... Winter storm warning from 10 am Saturday to 6 am est Sunday
for wvz050>053-504.

Winter storm warning from 7 am Saturday to 6 am est Sunday for

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon Saturday to 6 am est Sunday for

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Mm
aviation... Mm rcm
marine... Mm rcm
tides coastal flooding... Lwx

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 4 mi46 min ESE 6 G 7 37°F 1019.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 6 mi46 min S 2.9 G 5.1 40°F 38°F1018.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 12 mi46 min SW 1 G 1 40°F 41°F1019.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 18 mi46 min 38°F 1018.9 hPa
CPVM2 18 mi46 min 38°F 37°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 24 mi40 min SE 2.9 G 2.9 38°F 38°F1020.2 hPa (-0.0)36°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 35 mi130 min W 1.9 40°F 1019 hPa35°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi46 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 39°F 38°F1019.7 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 40 mi46 min W 2.9 G 4.1 39°F 38°F1019.4 hPa

Wind History for Francis Scott Key Bridge NE Tower, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD7 mi46 minSE 44.00 miFog/Mist39°F37°F93%1019.6 hPa
Baltimore, Inner Harbor, MD8 mi46 minno data mi42°F34°F73%1018.2 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD11 mi46 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F35°F71%1018.6 hPa
Annapolis, United States Naval Academy, MD19 mi46 minESE 45.00 miFair with Haze41°F35°F79%1019.5 hPa
Fort Meade / Tipton, MD19 mi58 minWSW 310.00 miFair41°F33°F76%1020 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD20 mi60 minSW 35.00 miFog/Mist39°F35°F87%1019.6 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD22 mi46 minSSW 47.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F33°F81%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE3NE3NE3E4E4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE4
1 day agoW6W8W6S7
2 days agoW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W4W9

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Carroll, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current
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Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Fri -- 12:45 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:47 AM EST     0.31 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:35 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:55 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:07 AM EST     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:48 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:44 PM EST     1.19 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:23 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:41 PM EST     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.